Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, NH

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Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:17PM Monday July 23, 2018 7:23 AM EDT (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:03PMMoonset 2:09AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres across the western atlantic will push back toward the waters today through Thursday, which will keep a southerly tropical wind flow in place. A cold front will slowly approach the waters late Friday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, NH
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location: 42.99, -71.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231042
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
642 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Synopsis
A tropical airmass will remain entrenched across southern new
england for most of the upcoming work week. Bands of showers
and a few thunderstorms will continue today, with the best
chance across the interior, with some scattered showers
lingering across the west tonight. Drier weather arrives Tuesday
as the bermuda high builds into the region. Showers and
thunderstorms become more widespread beginning late wed,
continuing into Thu and Fri as a cold front approaches the
region. A trend toward drier and less humid weather is likely
next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
640 am update...

goes16 visible imagery indicating breaks in the overcast across
eastern ct into ri and along the south coast ma. Once surface
heating commences later this morning these breaks will fill in.

Scattered showers focused across ct into western - central ma
and this will be the case for the remainder of the morning with
drier conditions across eastern ma ri. This is courtesy of
rising heights as subtropical ridge builds westward. This drying
trend over ri eastern ma will advance inland later today.

Tropical conditions will continue with surface dew pts in the
lower 70s. Previous forecast verifying nicely at the moment so
no wholesale changes with this forecast update. Earlier
discussion below.

===============================================================
note... A high rip current risk statement has been issued for
the southern coastal areas of rhode island into south coastal
bristol county of massachusetts through this evening. Details
will be in the marine section below.

A few bands of showers continue to stream n, mainly across
central and western areas early this morning, while patchy
showers have developed from time to time across N central and ne
ct across N ri into interior SE mass with the moist tropical
wind flow in place across the region.

High pressure across the central and western atlantic will
slowly shift W over the next few days with the anomalous,
highly amplified h5 pattern in place across north america. Long
wave cutoff low across central canada and its associated trough
digging across the great lakes to the eastern gulf coast, and
high ridges across the maritimes and the western u.S. Stall the
pattern for the next several days. 00z model suite remains in
line with the last several model runs in slowly retrograding the
maritime ridge further W through the short term.

For today, will still see the persistent southern wind flow
continue to bring tropical moisture northward. This will bring
patchy showers, with the best chance across central and western
areas. Can not rule out isolated thunderstorms, as k indices
remain in the lower-mid 30s through most of the day. Also, with
the high dewpoints, in the lower-mid 70s, and pwats from 2.1 to
2.3 inches, could also see some heavy downpours especially
across central and western areas where the best chance for
precip will occur. May see up to around 0.3 inches or so across
the E slopes of the berkshires with some upsloping in the s-se
wind flow.

Models all continue to signal drier air and a sharp decrease in
instability as the day progresses. Of note, the k indices and
total totals (amongst the other convective parameters) drop as
the western edge of the subtropical high starts to build
westward during the afternoon. This will lower the chance for
convection from e-w as well, though could still see a
thunderstorm or two across western mass into N central ct
into the evening.

Expect temps to rise to the lower 80s away from the S coast,
holding in the mid to upper 70s near the shore with the onshore
wind.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Tonight...

ridging at the surface and aloft continues to shift westward
tonight, pushing the convection into ny state. May still see
some scattered showers from the ct valley westward overnight
with leftover moisture in place. May see some patchy fog develop
along the coast and along the E slopes of the berkshires.

Expect rather sultry conditions to continue with the southerly
wind flow in place. Temps will bottom out in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Tuesday...

with drier air working in from the e, may actually see some
sunshine along E coastal areas during the day with the best
subsidence in place. However, clouds will linger inland, along
with the chance for diurnal showers. The best shot will occur
along the E slopes of the berkshires where s-se wind flow
continues.

Very humid conditions will be across the region with dewpts up
to the 70-75 degree range. Forecast highs will be in the lower
to mid 80s, except a bit cooler along the immediate coast as
the higher inland terrain.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Updated 325 am...

highlights...

* highest probability for showers t-storms late Wed into thu
* tropical humidity breaks next weekend with frontal passage
Tuesday night...

anomalous 596 dam ridge over the northwest atlantic remains close
enough to new england to shunt tropical moisture plume west of new
england, providing mainly dry weather across our region. Model cross
and time sections reveal dry air aloft (above 700 mb) but sufficient
low level moisture to run the risk for a few low top tropical
showers. Although areal coverage should be isolated. Remaining very
warm and humid with dew pts in the low 70s. Given the anomalous
moist airmass patchy fog is possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...

fairly high amplitude (-1 standard deviation 500 mb heights)
northern stream short wave trough for late july over the great lakes
begins to advect into new england late Wed through thu. This
increases cyclonic mid level flow over the area along with attending
cold front and return of tropical plume conveyor belt from west to
east. This results in all guidance sources increasing pop values to
likely category late Wed into thu. Low risk for a few strong t-
storms as 0-6km deep layer shear increases to 25-30 kt along with
mucapes greater than a 1000j kg. Also heavy rainfall threat with
pwats 2+ standard deviations and surface dew pts 70-75 (low lcls
too). Remaining seasonably warm with highs 80-85 both days but it
will feel even warmer given the high dew pts.

Friday...

ensembles and deterministic guidance suggest column begins to dry
behind departing short wave and surface front late Thu thu night.

However trailing secondary short wave and front moves across the
region Fri and may be accompanied by sufficient moisture and
instability for another round of convection. There are some timing
differences and it's possible the secondary cold front could be
delayed until sat. Regarding temps, Fri could be the warmest day of
the week with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Saturday and Sunday...

mean mid level trough sets up over the northeast and quebec-ontario,
eroding northwest atlantic ridge and provides southern new england
with mainly dry weather (provided cold front doesn't slow down and
impact Saturday's weather) and less humid. 850 mb and 925 mb temp
anomalies from the ensembles suggest near normal temps with highs 80-
85 and lows 60-65.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

645 am update...

a mix of ifr MVFR this morning will trend upward slightly today.

Showers will be focused across ct western-central ma much of the
day but then drying trend over eastern ma ri this morning slowly
advances westward this afternoon. Previous discussion below.

===================================================================
today... Moderate confidence.

MVFR to locally ifr conditions will continue through midday,
then will slowly improve. CIGS may improve toVFR along s
coastal areas by late morning, then improving further inland
during the afternoon. MVFR lingers across E slopes of the
berkshires through the day where showers and a few thunderstorms
linger.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

MVFR-vfr CIGS early lower to ifr-lifr across the interior and
possible as far E as kbos. Patchy fog along the coast and higher
terrain may lower vsbys to MVFR to locally ifr mainly after
midnight. Scattered showers linger across W mass N central ct.

Tuesday... Moderate confidence.

MVFR-ifr conditions especially inland through at least mid
morning, then improving to mainlyVFR. MVFR vsbys may linger
through at least midday along the coast in patchy fog.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance shra,
patchy fg.

Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, chance tsra with locally heavy rain, patchy br. Llws
possible late in the day.

Wednesday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Shra likely, chance tsra with locally heavy rain. Llws
possible.

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, chance tsra with locally heavy rain. Llws possible.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

today... High confidence.

***high rip current risk through this evening along S facing
beaches from horseneck beach (southern bristol county ma) and
the ri beaches as well as on the islands***
today... With persistent s-se winds, seas remain upwards to 8 ft
every 9 seconds at the offshore buoys S of the ri coast. The
long ground swell will continue to propagate toward the S coast,
where the best chance for rip currents will occur. A coastal
hazard statement has been issued with more details.

Expect wind gusts up to 25 kt on the southern outer waters
through midday, then will slowly diminish. This will keep the
seas high. Have continued small craft advisories for the open
waters as well as ri and bi sounds. Conditions may subside by
early afternoon on the outer waters E of boston and CAPE ann.

May see patchy fog linger over the open waters with reduced
visibility at times. Scattered showers at times as well.

Tonight and Tuesday... High confidence.

S-se winds remain in place, with gusts up to around 20 kt
tonight. Seas subside on the eastern outer waters, but will
remain at or above 5 ft from CAPE cod E and S and the southern
waters through Tuesday. Patchy fog will also reduce visibility
at times mainly tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers, chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday night: S winds 20-30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance
of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Thursday: SW winds 20-30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers, chance of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High rip current risk through this evening for maz020-023-024.

Ri... High rip current risk through this evening for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz235-237-
254>256.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for anz250.

Synopsis... Nocera evt
near term... Nocera evt
short term... Evt
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera evt
marine... Nocera evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 30 mi98 min E 1.9 70°F 70°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 40 mi23 min SSE 18 G 19 69°F 1022.6 hPa (+1.3)69°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 47 mi35 min 76°F 1021.5 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 49 mi35 min S 2.9 G 5.1

Wind History for Wells, ME
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manchester Airport, NH4 mi30 minSE 99.00 miOvercast75°F73°F94%1022.7 hPa
Concord Municipal Airport, NH16 mi32 minVar 52.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist74°F72°F94%1022.1 hPa
Nashua - Boire Field Airport, NH16 mi27 minSE 55.00 miFog/Mist74°F73°F100%1023.1 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA23 mi29 minESE 46.00 miOvercast with Haze76°F71°F85%1023 hPa

Wind History from MHT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7
G17
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E11NE4NE54NE5SE9SE5SE8SE7E4E6SE5SE8SE10SE9SE6SE7SE10SE9SE9
1 day agoCalmSW43SE6E9SE9SE94E8
G17
E6SE9E10E9E4NE4NE3NE5NE4CalmNE6NE6E9E9NE9
2 days agoCalmCalm3CalmCalmS7CalmE8CalmE12SE12SE10SE6SE5CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Riverside, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Riverside
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:14 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:51 AM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:07 PM EDT     5.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.34.43.32.11.20.50.20.623.74.95.354.33.42.41.50.80.40.723.85.36

Tide / Current Tables for Merrimacport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Merrimacport
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:52 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:21 AM EDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:00 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:37 PM EDT     7.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.74.22.61.40.50.312.54.35.76.46.35.64.431.70.90.61.12.64.56.17.17.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.