Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
University at Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:03PM Thursday August 24, 2017 1:01 AM EDT (05:01 UTC) Moonrise 8:32AMMoonset 8:50PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1041 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mainly clear.
Thursday..Light and variable winds. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Friday night..East winds less than 10 knots. Clear.
Saturday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. The water temperature off buffalo is 74 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201708240930;;301407 FZUS51 KBUF 240241 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1041 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-240930-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near University at Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.99, -78.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 240258
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1058 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
An large upper level trough over the great lakes will make for cool
and mainly dry weather across the region through the rest of the
week. A few spotty light showers will remain possible at times
through Friday morning... Before high pressure then brings dry
weather from Friday afternoon right on through the upcoming weekend.

Near term through Thursday
As expected, showers have dissipated with the loss of diurnal
heating and the passage of an upper level vorticity lobe across the
region. Surface high pressure is building into the region, and skies
have cleared out in the wake of the departing showers. With the
clearing skies, radiational cooling will cause temperatures tonight
will drop to the upper 40s in the higher terrain to near 60 closer
to the lakeshores.

While the night should start out clear, cloud cover will begin to
increase starting in the late overnight early morning period as the
next spoke of vorticity and shortwave behind the upper level low
over quebec approaches the area. The increasing vorticity advection
will be in conjunction with increased lake instability, as 850 temps
falling to +6c support equilibrium levels in excess of 10kft. With
this increased vorticity advection and enhanced lake instability, we
will see a chance for showers by the morning commute. Cloud cover
and the best chance for showers will increase primarily over the
south shore of lake ontario during the late overnight early morning
time period.

Thursday, the shortwave approaching from the central great lakes
along with vorticity will generate some forcing for the area and
therefore going with chance pops for most of the buf cwa.

Additionally some increased moisture as suggested by 18z GFS and nam
support at least chance pops. Best forcing from the shortwave and
vorticity should remain south and east of the buf CWA as it
continues to move south into pa and the mid-atlantic. Current
upstream temperatures in the central great lakes range from the low
to mid 60s and that slightly cooler air will advect into the area
on Thursday when highs for the region will mostly range from the mid
to upper 60s... Which is more reminiscent of temps for mid-late
september.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
Thursday night lake effect rainshowers will develop southeast
of lakes erie and ontario in the cold northwest flow. Overnight
lows will range from the upper 40s across the interior southern
tier and the north country to the mid 50s along the lake shores.

By Friday morning the lake effect rain showers will be waning as
drier air builds across the region. This should occur before sunrise
off lake erie and during the early morning off lake ontario...

followed by increasing amounts of sunshine during the afternoon.

Highs will continue to be about five to ten degrees cooler than
normal, struggling to get within a few degrees of 70.

Expect mainly clear skies Friday night as surface high pressure
builds into the eastern great lakes. Lows dropping into the low to
mid 40s across the interior sections and north country to the low
50s near the lakes.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will be anchored over the northeast this weekend, with
a cool NW flow aloft providing for comfortable levels of humidity
and just fair weather afternoon cumulus. The upper level trough will
exit Monday... And we'll be within a quasi-zonal flow aloft through
the remainder of the period with a upper level cut off low over the
midwest. We should hold onto our dry pattern through at least
Tuesday, if not Wednesday depending upon how quickly eastward this
upper level low advances.

The end of the month will finish with comfortable late summer
temperatures... Near the average of mid 70s... And dewpoints will be
comfortable, generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Nights may
become cool, with mid 40s possible early in the period across
interior valleys.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
With the last of the showers diminishing,VFR conditions should
prevail through much of the night, with clearing skies and light
winds allowing for the development of valley fog in the southern
tier, potentially affecting kjhw.

With a seasonably cool airmass moving overhead, and light nnw flow
off of lake ontario, it is possible that we will see some lake-
enhanced showers develop along the lake ontario shoreline late
tonight, with isolated to scattered showers developing farther
inland during the day on Thursday, as another shortwave drops south
across the great lakes. Outside of any showers, expect fairly
widespread sct-bkn CIGS to develop by 18z, again courtesy of
lingering moisture and cool air aloft, however CIGS should remain
vfr outside of any showers.

Outlook... Thursday night...VFR. Area of ifr in valley fog in the
southern tier late.

Friday... A chance of morning showers southeast of the lakes... OtherwiseVFR.

Saturday through Monday...VFR.

Marine
High pressure building in from the midwest has caused winds and
waves to diminish below advisory levels this evening, and the last
of the advisories have been dropped at this time. With high pressure
remaining in place through the weekend, expect tranquil conditions
on the lakes to persist for the next several days.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Smith
near term... Sw wood
short term... Levan
long term... Thomas
aviation... Wood
marine... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi44 min NW 8.9 G 12 63°F 1013.9 hPa52°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi44 min 62°F 1015 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 23 mi62 min WNW 14 G 19 66°F 1013.9 hPa (+1.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi44 min 65°F 1014.4 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 25 mi62 min W 16 G 22 65°F 1014.2 hPa (+1.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 31 mi62 min NNW 14 G 16 65°F 72°F2 ft1014.2 hPa (+1.1)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 43 mi122 min WNW 12 G 14 64°F 65°F1 ft1013.9 hPa (+1.2)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 45 mi62 min N 11 G 14 67°F 1014.6 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Last
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W10
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W9
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G22
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G25
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S7
G11
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G19
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G24
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G30
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SE3
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SW4
S10
G14
S6
G9
SW5
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SW7
G11
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G11
SW5
G10
SW7
SW5
S6
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SW4
SW2
--
SE3
SE4
SE3
G6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY5 mi68 minWNW 610.00 miFair60°F50°F70%1014 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY11 mi69 minW 510.00 miFair58°F48°F72%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW6W5W6W6W8W7W7W12W11SW16
G22
W14
G22
SW18
G23
W18
G26
SW18
G25
W14
G25
W15
G21
NW8NW11NW6NW8NW7W6W6
1 day agoS5S10S11SW12S13SW14
G21
SW15SW13SW20
G29
SW14
G26
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G32
SW14
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G30
W10W8NW12NW10W5SW6
2 days agoS5SE4SE6S6SE6SE5S4S6S8SW12SW12SW10SW10SW9SW8SW8SW10SW8W5SW3S5S6S4S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.