Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
University at Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 6:21PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:19 AM EDT (06:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:11AMMoonset 7:25PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 131 Am Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Overnight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less. Sunny.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain during the day, then a chance of showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day. The water temperature off buffalo is 62 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201710220900;;220788 FZUS51 KBUF 220532 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-220900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near University at Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.99, -78.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 220520
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
120 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
Beautiful indian summer weather will continue across the region
through at least late Monday afternoon... As high pressure along
the mid atlantic coast will supply us with conditions more typical
of late august or early september. A complex storm system will
then usher in a pronounced change in our weather... With a soaking
rain Monday night into Tuesday followed by much cooler temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday.

Near term through today
High pressure anchored along the mid atlantic coast will provide us
with a fine night across the region... As a deepening southerly flow
will help to hold our temperatures some 10 degrees higher than those
of early this morning. Mins will range from the 40s across the north
country and in the cooler SRN tier valleys to the lower to mid 50s
elsewhere.

Sunday will be an encore performance of Saturday's weather... As
sunshine through high clouds will combine with h85 temperatures in
the teens celsius to generate afternoon temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s in most areas. Perfect weather for getting out to view
some of our picturesque fall foliage.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
Pattern change set to take place during the period as the mid level
ridge shifts east and a deepening long wave trough settles across
the northern tier of states and into the great lakes. Latest
operational model solutions continue to trend toward a slower onset
of precipitation. The development of a cutoff low over the gulf
coastal states will slow the eastward progression of the main upper
trough axis limiting the northward stream of gulf moisture until
very late Monday into Monday night. Will ramp up precipitation
probabilities starting late Monday afternoon in the west with
categorical by early Monday night, as negative tilted upper
trough swings moves into the great lakes and surface low moves
into the ohio valley. Due to the uncertainty of the interaction
with the cutoff low, confidence in the exact placement of the
heavier rain axis is low. Nonetheless, a rainfall event of an
inch or more is likely through Tuesday,
the longwave trough will settle into the great lakes ohio valley
Tuesday Tuesday night. Model solutions have trended deeper with this
feature. This will keep a chance likely showers in the forecast
through this time period with the highest probabilities on Tuesday.

The delayed onset of precipitation Monday will allow for another well
above normal day with most temperatures reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Coldest air is not set to arrive until after Tuesday, so
likely looking at temperatures Tuesday in the mid to upper 60s
across eastern sections, with upper 50s to lower 60s across the west.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Wednesday through Thursday a sharp mid level trough will very slowly
cross the eastern great lakes and new england. Cool temperatures
aloft, wrap around moisture, and increasing lake induced instability
will produce scattered showers and some lake effect rain showers
both Wednesday and Thursday. The lake effect rain will likely remain
disorganized most of the time, with the placement of the mid level
low overhead yielding moderate boundary layer shear and short fetch
northwest flow.

The lake effect rain showers will end by Friday as high pressure
briefly builds over the eastern great lakes. Model differences
become more significant by Saturday, with the GFS being faster than
the ECMWF with the next system. Given the model differences, have
just gone with a low chance of rain showers for next Saturday.

Temperatures will bottom out Wednesday and Thursday as 850mb temps
drop to around 0c. This will support highs in the 50s in most areas,
with higher terrain possibly staying in the upper 40s if enough
cloud cover persists. Temperatures will begin to warm by Friday and
Saturday as southwest flow increases ahead of the next system. This
warming trend will be temporary however.

Looking a little farther ahead, the overall pattern evolution over
the next two weeks will be for a steady turn towards cooler weather
as a longwave trough becomes established over central and eastern
north america. This pattern change will be in part driven by the
poleward movement of the remnants of typhoon lan in the western
pacific by the middle of next week. The resulting influx of
latent sensible heat and vorticity into the mid latitude westerlies
will strongly amplify the pacific wavetrain, which in turn will
drive amplification downstream into north america. By the middle of
next week, a strong aleutian low will force a ridge to build over
the gulf of alaska, which will drift to the west coast of north
america by next weekend. This western ridge is forecast to last into
the first week of november, and aid in forcing a deep longwave
trough over central and eastern north america. This will bring more
fall like weather for the last week of october, and the possibility
of the first wintry weather during the first week of november. Stay
tuned.

Aviation 05z Sunday through Thursday
For the 06z tafsVFR flight conditions are found and these flight
conditions are expected to continue through the TAF package... With
light winds.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday... MVFR ifr with occasional rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure along the mid atlantic coast will keep generally light
winds and negligible waves in place across the lower great lakes
through the remainder of the weekend.

Winds and waves will remain well below small craft advisory levels
on Monday as a complex storm system will take shape over the ohio
valley. It will become quite unsettled Monday night into Tuesday
though... As notably stronger winds will accompany the passage
of the deepening storm system. Small craft advisories can be
expected from this event.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr rsh
near term... Jjr rsh
short term... Tma
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Thomas
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi50 min S 5.1 G 8 64°F 1023 hPa45°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi50 min 64°F 1023.9 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 23 mi80 min SSE 4.1 G 6 64°F 1023.4 hPa (-0.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi50 min 62°F 1023.2 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 25 mi80 min S 5.1 G 7 62°F 1024 hPa (-0.4)
45142 - Port Colborne 31 mi80 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 64°F 62°F1 ft1023.3 hPa (-0.4)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 43 mi80 min N 1.9 G 1.9 62°F 60°F1023.1 hPa (-0.1)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 45 mi80 min S 5.1 G 9.9 65°F 1023.6 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY5 mi26 minESE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F44°F65%1023.7 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY11 mi27 minE 410.00 miFair56°F45°F67%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S6S5S8S6SE5SE4S5S7SW7SW9SW8SW8W6SW4SW3CalmSE4SE3S4SE5S4S4SE4
1 day agoS5W3NW6S4SW3S4S4SW5SW7SW4SW6SW7SW11SW7SW8SW6S7S6S3S4S4S5S3S5
2 days agoS12S11SW13SW12SW10SW10SW14SW20
G24
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W6W6SW4SW5W6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.