Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
University at Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 9:00PM Saturday June 24, 2017 3:02 AM EDT (07:02 UTC) Moonrise 5:21AMMoonset 8:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 207 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Overnight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..Light and variable winds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear...then becoming mostly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 72 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201706240915;;730204 FZUS51 KBUF 240607 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 207 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-240915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near University at Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.99, -78.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 240618
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
218 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Synopsis
Scattered showers associated with a cold front will end from
northwest to southeast overnight. An upper level trough will
then become established over the weekend with a brief shower or
thunderstorm possible both days, but the majority of the time
will be rain free. A better chance of showers will arrive Monday
as the trough sharpens over the great lakes. Temperatures will
drop to below normal over the weekend and early next week.

Near term through today
Latest radar imagery and surface obs indicate that cold front
passage has occurred across the niagara frontier, with the final
batch of showers lying along the cold front currently aligned from
the tug hill to jamestown, and currently moving off to the east.

Once this last line of showers moves through, look for a dry rest of
the night, with gradually falling temperatures behind the front.

On Saturday a weak surface ridge will build into the ohio valley and
eastern great lakes. Meanwhile, a broad weak trough will become
established in the mid upper levels across the great lakes. A mid
level shortwave will move through the mean longwave trough and cross
the eastern great lakes during the afternoon. Meanwhile, mesoscale
convergence zones will setup across our region as enhanced gradient
onshore SW flow develops downstream of lake erie, with more westerly
flow across lake ontario. This should allow a well defined surface
convergence zone to develop from niagara falls east to rochester,
eventually building all the way east to central ny. The convergence
along this feature combined with the weak large scale ascent from
the mid level shortwave may support a few widely scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the corridor between the nys
thruway and south shore of lake ontario. An isolated afternoon
thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out across the higher terrain from
the interior southern tier into the finger lakes. It will be less
humid on Saturday, with highs in the mid 70s in most locations, and
a few upper 70s from the genesee valley into central ny.

Short term tonight through Monday night
Saturday night... The upper level pattern will feature a longwave
trough centered over the great lakes region with an upstream
intermountain ridge. At the surface... A weak ridge will be in
place. Thus any leftover scattered evening convection on lake
breezes, primarily S of lake ontario, should quickly dissipate
during the evening with a dry and cool remainder of the night - low
should be mostly in the 50s.

Sunday and Sunday night... Sunday should start out nice, but expect
the eventual development of scattered to possibly numerous showers
and thunderstorms developing on lake breeze boundaries. Additional
development may form along a weak cold front moving SE into wny
during the afternoon. Similar to Saturday night, expect convection
to dissipate fairly quickly with the loss of daytime heating.

Monday... The upstream cold pool aloft corresponding to the upper
level trough will pass overhead. Strong insolation and resultant
mixing, together with plenty of moisture and cool air aloft without
any signs of a cap will result in fairly quick development of
showers and some thunderstorms, although CAPE values will be
unimpressive with a skinny profile seen in point forecast soundings.

Still, with a freezing level somewhere near 8000-10000ft, cells
could easily support small hail. As noted earlier, there may
even be a hint of a lake response with a dry adiabatic lapse
rates over the 65-70+f waters. Once again, expect showers to be
on the decrease during the evening with little or no showers
late.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Tuesday a final upper level shortwave will round a longwave trough
over the northeast, bringing additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the day.

The upper level trough will push eastward Tuesday night and
Wednesday, with just a small chance for a lingering shower across
the north country. Surface high pressure will drift across the
eastern us, south of our region Wednesday, providing for some
clearing skies. Southerly winds behind this surface high Thursday
will bring increasing temperatures, along with an increase in
humidity levels. A shortwave rippling across the northern us may
trigger a few showers and thunderstorms later Thursday and Friday,
though timing at this point remains a bit uncertain.

Temperatures under the upper level trough Tuesday and Wednesday will
remain below normal. Southerly winds Thursday and Friday should push
temperatures into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the region.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
A final round of showers associated with a cold frontal boundary are
moving across western ny and into the finger lakes early this
morning. Brief periods of MVFR will accompany the showers, with
improving conditions toVFR to the west of the front. Moisture
pooling ahead of the front continues to generate ifr lifr conditions
across the north country. Expect these conditions to last a few more
hours before the front moves through, once again with improving
conditions behind the front.

While the entire forecast area can expect improvement toVFR on
Saturday, upper level troughing settling across the area will allow
for the development of isolated scattered -shra, with a few -tsra
also possible, with convection focusing on lake breeze boundaries,
and largely sparing kbuf kart.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of
mainly afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Funneling has helped enhance the southwesterly flow on lake erie
just enough to require a brief and low-end small craft headline
southwest of dunkirk. 3 to 5 foot waves will diminish late this
evening. Winds will pick up on lake ontario ahead of the front
later this evening, but without the funneling of the chautauqua
ridge these are not expected to get as strong.

West to southwest winds are likely to increase on Sunday on lake
erie as the pressure gradient increases ahead of a secondary cold
front crossing the eastern great lakes. The increase in winds is
less certain on lake ontario with considerable model differences
showing up. At least moderate westerlies will continue with choppy
conditions, and there is a chance of stronger small craft advisory
conditions if the stronger GFS based guidance verifies.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel hitchcock
near term... Apffel hitchcock wood
short term... Zaff
long term... Thomas
aviation... Wood
marine... Apffel hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi44 min NW 7 G 8.9 69°F 1003.1 hPa64°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi44 min 69°F 1003.9 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 23 mi62 min W 8.9 G 12 69°F 1003 hPa (+1.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi44 min 69°F 1003.8 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 25 mi62 min W 11 G 13 69°F 1003.4 hPa (+1.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 31 mi62 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 67°F2 ft1003.6 hPa (+1.3)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 43 mi122 min W 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 63°F1003 hPa (+1.4)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 45 mi62 min W 9.9 G 12 68°F 1004.2 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY5 mi68 minNW 710.00 miOvercast69°F64°F84%1003.1 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY11 mi69 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast70°F60°F71%1002.7 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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SW12SW8S9S9SW10SW10SW9SW10SW10
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SW9SW8W8SW8SW5W4NW7W8
1 day agoSW6S6S4S5S5SW6S6S6SW4S8S6S10SW15
G27
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SW14SW10SW8S5S10S15SW14W9SW9
2 days agoW5SW5W6W3NW5W4W6W8SW10
G17
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SW11SW11SW11W12SW9W8SW8SW5SW7S7S5S6SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.