Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 10:33 PM   Moonset 6:20 AM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1026 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
This afternoon - East winds around 10 knots becoming northeast. Sunny.Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Sunday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east and diminishing to 10 knots or less. A chance of showers during the day. Monday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Monday night. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday night.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 43 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 261856 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 256 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will drift east to the New England coastline tonight maintaining dry weather. A warm front will lift across the region this weekend bringing some showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, especially Saturday. A warming trend this weekend into early next week will result in late spring to summerlike warmth both Sunday and Monday. A cold front will bring our next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure will drift to the New England coast tonight, while upper-level ridging builds across New York State. Meanwhile further west, an initial cutter-type low will weaken as it tracks from the central Plains states to the Upper Mississippi Valley. As it does, this system will push a warm frontal boundary toward our region. This will initially bring a general west to east increase in mid and high cloud cover to most areas tonight, with perhaps the chance of a shower reaching Chautauqua county toward Saturday morning. Otherwise the night will remain dry, and will be notably milder than the previous couple nights as a southeasterly return flow of milder air strengthens across our region. Expect overnight low temperatures to range from the upper 30s across the North Country to the lower 50s along the Lake Erie shoreline, where downsloping will provide added warmth to temperatures, and may also allow winds to gust to 30-35 mph during the second half of the night.

The warm frontal boundary will lift into the region Saturday and gradually weaken as it moves to the east. This front will bring the likelihood for showers to western New York with the expectation that the shower activity will become more scattered farther to the east during the afternoon as the frontal boundary weakens. Can not completely rule out a rumble of thunder, but instability looks very limited so it seems this threat will be isolated at best. High temperatures should range from the upper 50s to upper 60s with the warmest locations downwind of the Chautauqua Ridge near the Lake Erie shoreline.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A weak warm front will carry northward to start this period, with showers and a few thunderstorms over the eastern end of Lake Ontario and points eastward.

Aloft a mid level ridge will begin to build over our region Sunday - Monday. At the surface Sunday a frontal boundary will lie to our west and north Sunday...to be pushed southward Monday as a shortwave well to the north near James Bay crests the mid level ridge.
Marginal instability may allow for a few showers or thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Tough to time and place such storms, but daytime period will be favored with the building instability.

Under this ridge warm air advection aloft will promote temperatures above normal for Sunday in the low to mid 70s. For Monday, with southwesterly flow and 850 hPa temperatures 12-13C, widespread upper 70s and lower 80s air temperatures, and even mid 80s in the Genesee Valley are expected. This southwest flow will keep downtown Buffalo a bit cooler. Also depending upon how far southward the front sags Monday across the southern and eastern waters of Lake Ontario, a possible northerly component to the wind may keep the south- southeast shoreline along the Lake a bit cooler.

Monday night a cold front will edge its way closer to our region.
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will become likely later in the night across WNY. Also a few showers are likely east of Lake Ontario as a stalled frontal boundary is forced northward ahead of the next system. Will side towards the warmer temperature solutions of guidance for Monday night with a steady southerly flow and increasing cloud cover.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
An anomalously strong ridge over Northeast will move off the east coast by Tuesday, and based on multiple ensemble systems there is medium to high confidence that zonal flow will set-up across the Great Lakes region through mid-week. Confidence lessens towards the end of the work week with consensus showing a subtle trough over the Northeast, however some ensemble members show the potential for a ridge to build into the region.

For more sensible details, a cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday. There is good agreement that the front will move through during daylight hours which increases the probability (55-75%) for showers and thunderstorms across a portion of the forecast region. Surface high pressure will move into the region Wednesday and result in mostly dry weather, however there is a low (20-30%) chance for showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Another cold front may approach the region Thursday and Friday.
Surface high pressure may linger into Thursday, however the forecast will maintain a higher chance (30-40%) as moisture increases ahead of the cold front. The cold front may move into the region Friday which will continue the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the work week.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will drift to the New England coastline tonight.
There will be patchy cirrus level clouds through this evening with a continuation of unlimited VFR conditions through at least 04z tonight.

Weakening low pressure will make its way into the upper Midwest later tonight, while pushing a warm front toward our region.
This will bring a general west to east increase in mid and high cloud cover after midnight. The warm front will move into the region Saturday morning with some showers, but confidence is low on rain coverage and intensity and therefore any restrictions to visibility. An isolated thunderstorms is possible, but confidence is even lower on coverage. Low end VFR cigs are possible across far western New York (KIAG, KBUF, KJHW) toward the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
High pressure will drift to the New England coastline tonight.
On Lake Ontario, easterly winds will remain elevated and maintain advisory-level conditions on the western portions of the lake west of Rochester through this evening.

High pressure will remain anchored off the New England coast tonight and Saturday, while low pressure tracks from the central Plains to central Ontario. This will result in winds across the lower Great Lakes veering to southeast and then south while strengthening, though the increasingly offshore nature of the flow will help to direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters. As a result, conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.

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