Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:53 AM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1019 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear late this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers in the morning. Monday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 46 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 281027 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 627 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
Another warm front will cross the region today, with some showers and a few thunderstorms possible. The nearby frontal boundary will continue to bring a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, the warm weather pattern will last much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A warm frontal segment and convectively augmented vorticity maxima will move from west to east across the region today, over the top of a mid-level ridge axis which is across the region. Overall poor model agreement handling this convective precipitation, which lowers forecast confidence in timing and location of any showers today. In general chances will increase late this morning and last through around mid-afternoon which is when the wave is forecast to move through. There will be ample surface based and instability to support a few thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours today. High temperatures will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s with the warmest weather across the Western Southern Tier which will see some clearing later this afternoon.

Tonight, there will be some lingering showers along the frontal boundary which will be stalled across Lake Ontario. The front may meander slightly southward later tonight, which will maintain cloud cover and possibly result in some fog across most of Western New York. Meanwhile, expect a partial clearing across the Western Southern Tier which will remain south of the boundary.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
On Monday a stalled out surface boundary will remain roughly in place along or just south of the Buffalo-Syracuse section of the NYS Thruway. This feature will be the demarcation line between a shallow east-northeasterly flow of much cooler air to its north...and much warmer surface-based air to its south. This will result in a strong north-south gradient in temperatures across our area...with areas north of the boundary being denied the opportunity to experience the summerlike warmth that will be found just to its south. North of the front highs will generally be in the 60s...though the ENE flow off the mid-40 degree waters of Lake Ontario will help confine readings along and a bit inland from the south shore of that lake to the 50s.
Meanwhile to the south of the front...highs will surge into the upper 70s and lower 80s. With the exact position of the front being so critical to the temperatures we'll ultimately realize...it should go without saying that there is a significant bust potential with the high temperature forecast on Monday...especially for locations lying in close proximity to the expected frontal position.

With respect to precipitation chances...much of Monday should be dry...with two possible exceptions. The first of these will lie across the eastern Lake Ontario region Monday morning...where a weakening shortwave will quickly dive east-southeastward to the north of the surface front and could act in concert with weak warm advection aloft to touch off some showers through the first part of the day. The other will be from the western Southern Tier across interior portions of the Finger Lakes...where daytime heating of the much warmer airmass should result in the development of some modest surface-based instability by the midday and afternoon...and where a developing lake breeze boundary and terrain influences may help to lift this juicier airmass and lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any diurnally-driven convection that forms south of the front Monday afternoon will then quickly die out with the loss of heating Monday evening.

As we push through Monday night a weakening cutter low will track near or across Lake Superior
In the process of doing so
it will help the stalled out frontal boundary to return north as a warm front...while at the same time also slowly pushing its trailing cold frontal boundary toward western New York...with this latter boundary reaching our western doorstep by Tuesday morning. As all this occurs expect both surface boundaries to bring the chance of some showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms...with the greatest chances for pcpn found across the eastern Lake Ontario region and far western New York
In between
it's not out of the question that portions of the southern Tier and Finger Lakes may lie deep enough within the warm sector to remain largely dry through the night.
Otherwise it will be another rather mild night by late April standards...with lows ranging from the lower 50s across the North Country and south shore of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 50s elsewhere.

During the day Tuesday the surface cold front will slowly make its way east across New York State...and in the process will generate fairly widespread showers along with some scattered thunderstorms.
Given current timing projections for the frontal passage...the best instability and therefore the best chance for any thunderstorms will lie from interior sections of the Southern Tier northeastward across the Finger Lakes and North Country. While some shear will be in place...the currently expected amount of cloud and shower coverage will likely help to keep available instability across our region weak to modest...with the better instability (and therefore the best chances for any stronger storms) likely remaining confined to our south and east. Meanwhile PWATs of 1.25-1.50" will probably support at least some potential for some locally heavier downpours. As for temps
highs will mostly range from the mid 60s to mid 70s
with the warmest readings across the upper Genesee Valley and interior portions of the Finger Lakes.

By Tuesday evening the increasingly wavy frontal boundary will lie to the east of our region. A lingering potential for some showers along our southeastern periphery of this slowly departing system Tuesday evening will eventually give way to a return to drier weather overnight and especially Wednesday as a weak bubble of high pressure over the central Great Lakes builds east across our region and gradually strengthens...with dry weather then continuing through Wednesday night as the high drifts across New England. Even with at least a somewhat cooler airmass in place temps should still easily remain above average for the last 36 hours of this period...with lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s...and highs on Wednesday generally running in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Moving into the long term portion of the forecast...the medium range guidance packages are in good agreement on the axis of broad upper level ridging sliding across our region on Thursday...with a nice southerly low-level return flow in place in between high pressure along the New England coastline and low pressure over the nation's midsection. This should result in a summerlike day with fairly widespread highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Cannot completely rule out a shower or two along our northwestern periphery later on in the day as a warm front attendant to the Plains system snakes toward our region...however at this point the day appears to be largely dry.

After that...our weather should remain rather warm but should also begin to trend more unsettled through Friday as the aforementioned storm system lifts across the Upper Great Lakes and swings its trailing cold front toward our region. The most unsettled conditions of this period then look to come Friday night/Saturday as the cold front crosses our region and provides our next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms...with the increased pcpn and introduction of somewhat cooler air also allowing temps to pull back a bit for Saturday (though these should still remain above normal).

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TAFS will start off mainly VFR this morning. A warm frontal segment will move ENE across the area today. This will produce some showers with scattered thunderstorms. Fairly widespread MVFR cigs are expected with this, with brief/localized IFR vsby in heavier downpours and thunderstorms possible. Coverage expected to be very sparse and brief so did not include this in TAFs.

Frontal boundary will meander south tonight, resulting in lower cigs and some fog tonight. IFR flight conditions are likely to develop along this boundary, with areas of vsby 1SM or less in fog at times. Fog and low cigs will mainly impact KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART with KJHW remaining south of the boundary.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
A general weak southwesterly flow today. This will result in conditions remaining below advisory criteria. This being said, a few thunderstorms will become possible today with locally higher winds and waves possible. Increasing northeast winds will result in choppy conditions along the south shores of Lake Ontario late tonight into Monday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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