Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
University at Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:41PM Friday May 24, 2019 9:09 PM EDT (01:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:04AMMoonset 9:44AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 125 Pm Edt Fri May 24 2019
This afternoon..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Partly Sunny.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers during the day.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 50 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201905242115;;391986 FZUS51 KBUF 241725 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 125 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-242115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near University at Buffalo, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.99, -78.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 242155
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
555 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
Cool and generally quiet conditions will continue over the area
as high pressure advances eastward through tonight. Conditions
will then deteriorate late tonight through Saturday night due to
a pair of frontal systems which will push through the region.

High pressure will then ridge southward from canada and into the
great lakes providing mainly dry weather for Sunday and Monday.

Near term through Saturday
Weakened MCV tracking through lower michigan this evening which will
drop ese along the theta-e ridge gradient that is located just to
the SE across ohio into NW pa. Ahead of this feature a few very
light showers sprinkles will be possible across the western southern
tier, mainly chautauqua county.

Otherwise, as this weakened MCV makes a futile attempt to crest the
ridge sprawling through the great lakes it will get shredded apart
this evening. Even hi-res model solutions really eviscerate this mcv
as it continues to attempt to do this, although the larger scale
models hang onto some semblance of narrow lifting on the front side
of the circulation associated with the decaying remnant mesolow. Low
end pops were still maintained across wny and the western southern
tier for this during the evening hours before dry conditions resume.

The mid-level ridge axis passes east of the CWA on Saturday
morning, allowing for flow to rapidly become southerly and then
southwesterly as a warm front advances through the cwa. This
will bring much more humid conditions as evidenced by pwat
values jumping progressively through the day toward 1.75 inches.

With the warm frontal passage, the deepest moisture and
corridor of favored ascent with a leading short wave looks to be
just to the north of the area with weaker moisture and shear
fields farther south. Thus, the best chances of precipitation
from the warm frontal passage look to be just to our north,
however things look to get a bit more interesting once we are
entrenched in the warm sector by the afternoon.

With the aforementioned soupy 1.75 inch pwat environment
sprawled across most of new york state by Saturday afternoon,
and MUCAPE values vaulting toward 1000-1200 j kg (especially
over the southern tier) with attendant 0-6 km bulk shear values
on the order of 35 kts, convective development seems a fairly
good bet. Activity will likely kick off fairly early with
additional redevelopment as the mesoscale environment plays out
in terms outflow interactions. That said, hi-res guidance is
going absolutely loopy in the warm sector. However, given that
the best shear doesn't start to arrive until very late in the
day or the evening, and the apex of warm air doesn't get to our
area until this juncture, it would seem the best potential for
anything severe would hold off until then. That said, SPC does
have the area west of i-390 in a slight risk, and the time
period closer to the evening on Saturday would be the window for
this. Further, it would seem heavy rain would be more
problematic, anyway. Deep moisture, weakened afternoon shear,
and the potential for successive rounds of convective activity
will yield potential for heavy rain accumulations. This could
lead to localized flooding.

Short term Saturday night through Tuesday
As we move into this period... A passing prefrontal trough will
continue to generate fairly widespread convection during the early
and middle portions of Saturday evening... With the moisture-rich
(pwats of up to 1.75") and also rather sheared environment supporting
a risk of both heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. After that
time... Developing subsidence and drying in the wake of the trough
will result in the convection quickly tapering off from northwest
to southeast... With just a few isolated showers leftover across
the southern tier by late Saturday night early Sunday morning.

Otherwise... Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
for the most part.

On Sunday... Low pressure sliding across northern quebec will ease
its trailing weak cold frontal boundary across our region. With
this feature starved for both deep moisture and upper level support...

it should only be able to generate some isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms as it passes across areas south of lake
ontario. Have maintained some 20-30 pops to cover these... With the
activity likely to end altogether early Sunday evening. Following
the passage of the front... Canadian high pressure will ridge
southeastward across new york state and provide us with dry quiet
weather and comfortable temperatures for the remainder of the long
holiday weekend... With lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Sunday
night followed by highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on memorial
day.

Monday night and Tuesday our weather will then deteriorate again as
the ridge of high pressure slides off to our east... And gives way to
the first in the next series of waves rippling northeastward around
the periphery of upper level ridging anchored across the southeastern
states. This will result in convective chances returning from west
to east Monday night... With showers and storms then becoming more
numerous during Tuesday as the wave passes directly across new york
state. With an overall warm air advection regime accompanying the
approach and passage of this wave temperatures will also be on the
rise again... With Monday night's lows ranging through the 50s and
Tuesday's highs climbing back into the 70s... And possibly the 80s
in some areas south of lake ontario should there be enough dry time.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
The good news is that the medium range ensemble packages are in
fairly good agreement with the general longwave pattern during this
period. This will translate into a higher confidence forecast. The
bad news is that this pattern will feature several frontal passages
that will favor unsettled weather. A persistent mid level storm
system anchored in the vcnty of james bay will keep a cyclonic flow
over the great lakes region for much of this period... So temps that
will average above normal Tuesday night and Wednesday will drop back
to below normal levels by the end of the work week. The details...

a progressive ridge will amplify over the lower great lakes Tuesday
night... And this will help to push a warm front across our forecast
area to the thousand islands region. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms associated with this boundary will taper off from
south to north (yes... South to north) in the process with mainly
rain free weather anticipated overnight for sites south of buffalo
and rochester. Being in the warm sector... We can anticipate a non-
diurnal temp trend with mins in the lower 60s forecast to occur near
or before midnight.

It will be warm and humid on Wednesday and while the majority of the
day will be rainfree... Conditions over our area should deteriorate
ahead of a pre-frontal trough. This will result in an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms... With a 50kt low level jet
once again promoting strong to severe convection. The highest risk
for strong convection will be south of buffalo and rochester... Away
from the stabilizing effects of a strengthening lake breeze off lake
erie. Temperatures on Wednesday should top out within a few degrees
of 80... With the coolest air being northeast of both lakes erie and
ontario. Meanwhile... H85 temps in the teens should virtually
guarantee highs of least the mid 80s in the genesee valley.

The convection from Wednesday afternoon and evening will die off
during the course of Wednesday night... As we will find ourselves
between the exiting pre frontal trough and approaching cold front.

The cold front will push through our region on Thursday. It is
difficult to time the passage of this feature... Although if it
occurs during the second half of the day... Convection could again
become strong for sites south of buffalo and rochester.

Cooler and drier air in the wake of the cold front will support
improving conditions Thursday night and especially Friday. In
fact... There is relatively strong consensus that canadian high
pressure build across the region on Friday to give us a beautiful
day to end the work week.

Aviation 22z Friday through Wednesday
The only area of interest this evening is a dying MCS which will re-
spread clouds over all the sites from w-e this evening. It may even
produce a light shower or sprinkles across the western southern
tier, mainly for chautauqua county. Otherwise,VFR is expected to hold
at area terminals through this evening and into the first half of
tonight.

Clouds will thicken and lower later tonight into Saturday as a warm
front pushes through the area. Look for increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms overnight and through the day on Saturday.

Some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall and gust winds,
which would lead to lower CIGS and vsbys locally.

Outlook...

Saturday night... MainlyVFR with chance showers and thunderstorms
early.

Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Monday...VFR. Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Light winds and minimal wave action is expected tonight with high
pressure residing over the area. Winds and waves will increase from
the south and eventually go southwest on Saturday ahead of a cold
front and widespread showers and thunderstorms. Winds will gradually
turn northwest by Sunday night into Monday and weaken.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ar fries
near term... Ar fries
short term... Jjr
long term... Rsh
aviation... Ar fries
marine... Ar apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi52 min SSE 2.9 G 2.9 52°F 57°F1019.9 hPa42°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi58 min 58°F 1019.7 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi58 min 56°F 1019.5 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 25 mi70 min SSW 6 G 8.9 64°F 1020 hPa (-1.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 31 mi70 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 49°F 47°F1 ft1019.8 hPa (-1.4)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 43 mi70 min SSE 9.7 G 9.7 57°F 48°F1 ft1018.5 hPa (-1.5)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 45 mi70 min WSW 6 G 7 57°F 1020.3 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last
24hr
SW14
SW9
NW15
G19
NW13
G16
NW9
G13
W6
G9
SW6
W6
SW6
W7
SW1
G5
W6
S7
SW8
SW11
G14
SW16
SW13
SW6
SW5
SW4
W10
SE2
G6
SW6
S3
1 day
ago
NE3
SE3
SE3
S3
SE1
S4
S2
SE7
S7
S6
S8
S9
S10
S5
G8
SW7
G12
SW11
NW2
SW5
G10
SW5
SW12
SW10
W16
W17
G24
SW12
2 days
ago
S5
S4
S4
S3
S3
SE3
E3
SE4
E1
G4
E4
E4
E3
E6
E4
G9
SE9
G14
SE6
G14
SE6
G9
E7
G13
SE7
G11
SE8
G11
SE6
G12
SE5
G8
SE5
G9
S4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY5 mi76 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F48°F77%1020.4 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY11 mi77 minSSW 710.00 miFair60°F50°F70%1019.9 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hrSW9SW9NW14
G22
NW11W11W12NW10W10W10W7W6NW9N9NW8W6SW9SW13SW9SW8
G17
SW13SW13SW11SW8SW7
1 day agoSW10SE4SE5S3S5S7S4S5SE7S5S6S8SW12
G18
SW10W15
G27
SW10SW12
G20
SW14
G22
SW20
G28
SW22
G32
SW19
G31
W23
G28
SW15
G25
SW11
2 days agoS8S5S4S4S3SE4SE4S5CalmE4SE5E4E8E9E11
G18
E15E12E10E8E9E8E9SE8S10

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (21,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.