Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:53 PM   Moonset 2:50 AM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 443 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Today - Light and variable winds. Areas of dense fog early, then patchy fog late this morning. Tonight - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Areas of fog overnight. Monday - Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Areas of fog in the morning. Monday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 55 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 191100 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 700 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure extending from the Labrador Sea and the Canadian maritimes back across our region will generally keep fair dry weather in place through at least the beginning of the new work week. More notable will be the summer like heat that we can look forward to, as the mercury in most areas will climb WELL into the 80s for the Monday through Wednesday timeframe.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Fog (across far western NY) and stratus (interior Southern Tier and Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes) continues to be seen quite nicely on Nighttime Microphysics satellite early this morning. With many observations hovering at or near one quarter mile and widespread nature of dense fog, a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM for the Niagara Frontier southward along the Lake Erie shore into Chautauqua County.

Otherwise, following the dissipation of morning fog and stratus, amplifying mid and upper level ridge overhead will provide mainly dry weather today. There will be an outside chance for some diurnally driven scattered showers and possibly an isolated rumble of thunder across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region with a lingering weak surface convergent boundary in place there. High temperatures should climb into the mid to upper 70s, some 5 to 10 degrees above average.

High pressure will provide dry weather tonight. Although low level moisture looks to be a bit less tonight, there may still be enough to produce some areas of fog again overnight, mainly south of Lake Ontario. However, it is not expected to be as widespread or dense as last night. Another mild night with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Summer-like warmth will be the main story as daytime temperatures climb solidly into the 80s Monday through Wednesday. We might even see a few locales touch 90F, especially in the Genesee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. A shower or even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible well inland from the lakes on Monday.

On Tuesday...a shortwave is advertised to crest over the top of the 500mb ridge. This feature will bring some showers to the St.
Lawrence Valley in the morning, and then additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the afternoon inland from the lakes.

Southwest flow strengthens across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday as low pressure tracks from Lake Superior to near Hudson Bay. The warmth will peak on Wednesday as H850T's reach its maximum aloft of +15C to +17C. This will easily support highs in the mid to upper 80s near 90F. No record highs anticipated at KBUF or KROC but we could near it at KART (86F:1985)
Additionally
this will likely be the best chance for showers and thunderstorms as a pre-frontal trough arrives across the region near peak heating
Right now
BUFKIT sounding profiles show CAPE values ramping up to 1300-1600 J/kg in the afternoon, and 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. Given the favorable timing...we could see some stronger storms develop inland from the cooler stable lake environment. Will need to keep an eye on temperatures and the potential for strong storms as we move closer.

Showers and thunderstorm potential will continue as we head into Wednesday night as the cold front nears and crosses the region overnight. Mild muggy night expected ahead of the cold front with lows expected in the 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The cold front should be in the process of exiting the region or just to our east by Thursday morning. There may still be some showers that linger behind the front on Thursday but should be fairly limited coverage wise
Otherwise
it will be cooler Thursday with highs in the low-mid 70s.

A secondary cold front is advertised to cross the region late Thursday night or even early Friday which will deliver a second shot of cooler air to the eastern Great Lakes
That said
the main challenge will be how much cooler with H850 temperatures potentially down to +4C to +7C. Guidance still shows anywhere from low-mid 60s to low-mid 70s. Will lean on NBM guidance at this point which is right in the middle with upper 60s to around 70F for daytime highs on Friday. The cooler airmass rapidly modifies over the weekend with a warming trend taking place across the region.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions expected east of Lake Ontario (KART) today. Meanwhile conditions deteriorate from east to west south of Lake Ontario, with the worst conditions (IFR to VLIFR range) across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) and far southwestern NYS (KJHW) where VSBYs down to a quarter mile will continue into the first part of the morning. Nighttime Microphysics satellite continues shows the denser fog and stratus across western NY. Lower Genesee Valley on the eastern edge of the better moisture already starting slow improvement just a little after sunrise with MVFR VSBY there at this time that will likely continue to improve.

Heading into later this morning, low stratus and fog over western NY will slowly improve to VFR through the mid to late morning hours.
Widespread VFR conditions then expected for this afternoon and evening, although there may be a stray shower or rumble of thunder toward the upper Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region during the afternoon.

Widespread VFR through the first half of tonight. There will be the possibility for some fog once again second half of tonight, however it is not expected to be as widespread or dense as last night.

Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A highly saturated airmass and weak flow will continue across the lower Great Lakes today allowing for fog and low stratus to persist over the Lakes with poor visibility conditions across eastern Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario, for which a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 12 PM today.

Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on the Lakes through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001-002- 010-011-019-085.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ040-041.
Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LOZ042- 062.

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