Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Phelps, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:30PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 5:46 PM EDT (21:46 UTC) Moonrise 11:15PMMoonset 7:44AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 422 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Scattered showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201905230315;;291793 FZUS51 KBUF 222022 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 422 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-230315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Phelps, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 222028
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
428 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will depart off to our east through the rest of the
day... While allowing for a continued west to east increase in cloud
cover. A few showers and thunderstorms will then be possible from
very late this afternoon through Thursday morning as a warm front
crosses our region... With a round of more numerous showers and storms
then following for Thursday afternoon... When a few of the storms
could become strong to severe. A cold front will then cross the
region late Thursday and Thursday evening and bring an end to the
unsettled conditions... With cooler and drier weather then following
in its wake for later Thursday night and Friday.

Near term through Thursday
Tan axis of surface-based ridging will drift from central and
eastern new york into new england... While low pressure meanders
its way northeastward across minnesota. Warm advection is
already working in concert with moisture advection aloft to
generate overcast across the area. Below the mid high cloud
deck, however, there is a chasm with wide dewpoint depressions
such that shower activity seen on radar is largely resulting in
virga across the area. However, a few places have reported short
periods of shower activity, so have opted to add sprinkle
wording to the forecast in advance of the deeper moisture
arriving late this evening.

As we move into tonight the aforementioned surface low will
make its way to lake superior... While slowly pushing its
attendant warm front into our region. In tandem with this... A
modest mid level shortwave and weak (30-40 knot) low level jet
will traverse our region from west to east during the first half
of the night... With a brief shot of increased forcing and
moisture attendant to these features providing the impetus for a
round of scattered showers mainly from lake ontario
southward... And perhaps a few thunderstorms as well given the
presence of some weak elevated instability. The best potential
for any thunder with this will lie across the southern tier
where instability will be maximized... With the chances for
thunder then decreasing with increasing northward extent.

Following the passage of the shortwave and its low level
jet... General subsidence should then allow for mainly dry
conditions for the remainder of the night... Though still can't
rule out another stray shower storm or two given the continued
presence of the slowly advancing warm front (never trust a warm
front... Especially at night). Given the overall warm advection
regime... Lows tonight will be substantially warmer than those of
the past couple of nights... With minimum temperatures ranging
from the lower 50s across the north country to near 60 along the
lake erie shoreline.

On Thursday the warm front and any isolated attendant showers storms
will finish pushing across our area during the morning... And may be
followed by a brief relative lull for a few hours. After that time...

the combination of diurnal heating destabilization of an increasingly
warm and more humid airmass within the warm sector... Increasing height
falls aloft... And the approach of a prefrontal trough should lead to
renewed convective development by late morning or midday... With this
initially developing and focusing to the southeast of the stabilizing
influence of lake erie... Before growing pushing northeast across the
genesee valley finger lakes and into the north country during the early
to mid afternoon hours... With the bulk of this then sliding east of our
region late. Given the combination of favorable moisture... Lift... And
instability that is expected... Have further increased pops associated
with this round of convection to the lower end of the categorical range.

With respect to the potential for strong to severe storms... A
strengthening westerly flow regime aloft will lead to copious amounts
of shear areawide... With 0-6 km bulk shear values of at least 50 knots
expected... And some the short term guidance suggesting that this could
reach as high as 60-70 knots. With respect to instability... Diurnal
destabilization out ahead of the prefrontal trough is currently projected
to lead to the MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 j kg in those areas south of
lake ontario away from stabilizing lake influences... With localized
pockets of 1500-2000 j kg possible. Such a combination of shear and
instability should lead to the development of increasingly organized
convection and an attendant risk for all forms of severe weather.

Of these... Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary
threats by far... Though the amount of available shear and low lcl
heights would also be supportive of a small... But nonzero risk for
a tornado. Given all this... The current slight risk of severe storms
advertised in spc's day 2 convective outlook looks very reasonable...

particularly from the southern tier eastward across the finger lakes
where the shear-instability parameter space appears most favorable.

Behind the prefrontal trough and its attendant convection... Increasing
drying and subsidence will make for a much less favorable environment
for additional convection... And as such would expect the trailing cold
front (as is so commonly the case for our area) to produce little
more than some isolated to scattered showers as it works into far
western new york late in the day. The bigger story in the wake of
the prefrontal trough will actually be a brief but notable period of
stronger southwesterly to westerly winds downwind of lake erie... Where
downward transport of higher momentum air from aloft should lead to a
round of 15-30 mph sustained winds along with gusts to 40-45 mph during
the early to mid afternoon hours... With these then quickly subsiding
as we head toward evening.

Short term Thursday night through Sunday night
The forcing responsible for the active weather Thursday afternoon
will quickly exit our region Thursday evening... As a 45-50kt low
level jet and deep moisture profile ahead of a cold front will make
its way across new england. While there may be some leftover showers
and thunderstorms early in the evening due to the actual cold
frontal passage... The trend will definitely be for benign weather
with dying convection rapidly giving way to partial clearing. In
fact... All of the forecast area should be precipitation free by
midnight. Meanwhile... The somewhat muggy conditions (dew points in
the 60s) will be replaced by a more comfortable canadian airmass
with tds falling back into the low 50s by daybreak.

Ridging at all levels will build across the lower great lakes on
Friday. The strong subsidence provided by the ridge and the
proximity of being under the right front exit region of a 150kt h25
jet will nearly guarantee dry weather with abundant sunshine. It
will be notably cooler (by more than 10 deg f) than Thursday
though... As a canadian airmass with single digit h85 temps will only
allow afternoon mercury readings to be in the mid to upper 60s.

While the bulk of Friday night will be rain free in most areas... A
baroclinic zone will become established over the great lakes region
courtesy of a broad storm system over the upper lakes and exiting
high pressure to our east. In fact... The forecast pops will be a
little higher than those advertised by many of the guidance
packages. Just cannot trust a warm front... Or in this case... The
semblance of one.

Saturday will be rather unsettled across our region. The
aforementioned warm front will press northwards across the region
during the first half of the day... Then a pre frontal trough will
make its way through during the afternoon. Much like the convective
environment from Thursday... Sfc based instability will be
unimpressive to the tune of 500-1000 j kg while a 45kt low level jet
will set the stage for 40-45kts of deep layer shear. This will
encourage any convection to become strong to severe... Especially
inland from the influences of a well established lake breeze off lk
erie. Have added a little enhanced wording to the package by
mentioning gusty winds with the likely convection. Also like
Thursday... It will be warm and humid ahead of the pre frontal trough
and subsequent cold front... With MAX temps of 75 to 80 over the
western counties where dew points will also be in the 60s.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage... A large sfc high will
gradually build across the forecast area during the day Sunday.

While this should support fair weather to end the weekend... There is
a fairly wide variance in solutions for this period... Including the
risk that the cold front will stall near or just south of the
southern tier. This would lend itself to a much more unsettled day
if it were to verify. Will compromise for now with low chc pops near
the pennsylvania border.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
A bubble of high pressure will build over the eastern great lakes
Monday and potentially bring a brief break between rain chances with
a mainly dry day. A warm front will move northeast across the
eastern great lakes Monday night with a chance of a few showers.

Tuesday through Wednesday the longwave trough will re-focus across
the northern plains, forcing downstream height rises across the
eastern united states. This will allow warmer and somewhat more
humid air to move back into the ohio valley and new england. Model
guidance has shown some run to run variability with the synoptic
scale details during this time period. In a general sense, one or
two low pressure systems will move through the great lakes later
Tuesday through Wednesday. These systems will bring an increase in
large scale forcing and a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
at times. High temperatures will move back into the 70s at least,
and possibly 80s if some of the warmer model guidance verifies.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
Through the rest of today surface high pressure draped across
our region will drift eastward and into new england... While low
pressure makes its way across minnesota. In between these two
systems mid and high clouds will increase from west to east
across our region... WithVFR conditions otherwise prevailing.

As the surface low makes its way to lake superior tonight... It
will push its attendant warm front into our region. The advancing
warm front and the passage of a modest mid-level shortwave weak
low level jet should bring scattered showers and perhaps a few
embedded thunderstorms to western new york during the evening and
early overnight hours. Following the passage of these features...

mainly dry weather should return for the balance of the night...

though another stray shower storm or two cannot be completely ruled
out given the continued presence of the slowly advancing warm front.

Meanwhile flight conditions will be primarilyVFR... Save for the
possible development of some MVFR ifr ceilings across the southern
tier late.

On Thursday the warm front and any isolated attendant showers storms
will finish pushing across our area during the morning... And may be
followed by a brief relative lull for a few hours. After that time...

diurnal destabilization and the approach of a prefrontal trough
should lead to renewed convective development by late morning midday...

with this initially developing and focusing to the southeast of the
stabilizing influence of lake erie... Before growing pushing northeast
across the genesee valley finger lakes and into the north country
during the early to mid afternoon hours... With the bulk of this then
sliding east of our region late. This round of convection could
feature some strong to severe storms... With wind gusts of >=50 knots
and large hail the primary threats. In the wake of the trough...

a brief period of stronger southwesterly gradient winds will then
follow for areas downwind of lake erie during the afternoon... When
gusts to 35-40 knots will be possible.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Scattered showers and storms ending early across
eastern sections... OtherwiseVFR.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Some storms could again produce gusty winds.

Sunday... MainlyVFR.

Monday...VFR.

Marine
High pressure draped across new york state will drift eastward into
new england this afternoon... While low pressure advances across
minnesota. In between these two systems a moderate easterly flow will
continue across the lower great lakes... Though the strongest winds
and greatest wave action will remain confined to the open waters
of lake ontario. Winds will then turn southerly tonight and Thursday
morning as a warm front pushes across our region.

On Thursday southwesterly winds will increase within the warm sector
of a storm system... With winds likely to reach small craft criteria on
lake erie... And possibly the western half of lake ontario.

A cold front will then cross the lower great lakes late Thursday and
Thursday night... With brisk westerly winds behind this feature leading
to the continued possibility of advisory-level conditions on portions
of both lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Fries jjr
short term... Rsh
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 37 mi46 min E 12 G 14 51°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 38 mi52 min 52°F 1020.9 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 41 mi52 min NE 5.1 G 7 56°F 1022.2 hPa42°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 48 mi36 min E 7.8 G 7.8 45°F 37°F1022.7 hPa38°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi53 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds65°F42°F43%1022.6 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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NW5NW4SW3SW3W4SW4W5W5SW5S3CalmCalmSW4SW3W3CalmE4E53CalmCalmE5Calm
1 day agoW16
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2 days agoNE4CalmSW9
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W3S4SW9SW12S11SW11SW5SW8SW8SW12SW11
G16
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W10W11
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G27
W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.