Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Victor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:37PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:26 PM EDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:30AMMoonset 4:57PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 734 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 5 to 15 knots. Rain in the evening...then showers likely overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Showers likely during the day...then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 51 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201705240315;;102376 FZUS51 KBUF 232334 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 734 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ043-240315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Victor, NY
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location: 43, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 232359
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
759 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A weak ridge of high pressure will provide for mostly dry conditions
tonight. An weak mid level disturbance may bring a few showers to
the western southern tier and possibly an isolated shower to the
north country on Wednesday. A stronger low will then produce more
widespread rain across the entire region later Wednesday night and
Thursday, with unsettled conditions lasting through Friday.

Near term through Wednesday
The diurnal cumulus from earlier this afternoon have mainly
dissipated this evening as the boundary layer begins to cool and
stabilize. High thin cirrus will continue to slowly increase from
south to north as upper level moisture streams northward out of pa,
but these should remain thin enough to call the sky condition partly
cloudy in most areas through the bulk of tonight.

Most of the night will remain dry, however attention will be upon a
weak mid level shortwave which should reach the southwest corner of
ny by late tonight or early Wednesday morning. This feature,
combined with increasing atmospheric moisture will bring a chance
for a rain shower very late tonight and Wednesday morning across the
western southern tier, with the greatest chances across chautauqua
county. Later in the day this shortwave, combined with minor
afternoon instability of 500 j kg of CAPE will bring a chance for a
shower or two across the higher terrain east of lake ontario as
well. Otherwise the rest of the area should remain dry on Wednesday
with a mix of clouds and limited sun.

Tonight clouds will begin to increase somewhat, which will limit the
cooling. Overnight lows within a southeast wind will range from the
upper 40s to mid 50s, with the coolest readings in the interior
southern tier valleys and east of lake ontario, and the warmest
readings along the lake plains. Wednesday southeast winds across wny
will bring mid to upper 70s on the lake plains with an added boost
from downslope flow, while a light east wind across the north
country within a similar airmass will promote highs in the low to
mid 70s. Northeast winds will keep the south shore of lake ontario
cooler.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
The deep closed low over the middle mississippi valley Wednesday
evening will track slowly across the central appalachians Thursday
to the gulf of maine by Friday afternoon. A complex surface low
occlusion over the ohio valley Wednesday night will lift northeast
as secondary development takes place from the mid atlantic to the
new england coast by Friday. Despite some model differences in
track placement of these feature there is agreement that the
Wednesday night into Thursday night time frame will be a wet one.

Plenty of deep layer moisture and forcing in the front flank of the
of the system will generate a solid period of soaking rain, with
most areas receiving a general half inch to an inch of rainfall.

While forcing with the incoming system is impressive, instability is
not. Therefore, thunder chances remain rather subdued.

Precipitation will transition to showers Thursday night into Friday,
as the low moves overhead and past the forecast area, though
scattered to numerous showers should linger thorugh much of the day
on Friday, thanks to continued troughing across the area, coupled
with wrap-around moisture. Shortwave ridging moving into the region
in the wake of the departing low pressure system Friday night should
put an end to the showers.

This will be a cool period as plenty of cloud cover and rainy
conditions will help to suppress temperatures with highs both
Thursday and Friday likely not getting out of the 60s, with lows in
the 50s during the nights.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Upper level ridging crossing the region should result in generally
dry conditions on Saturday, though moisture moving through the top
of the low-amplitude ridge just might generate a shower or two, so
have low slight chance pops in place for now. A northern stream wave
diving across the upper midwest and great lakes out of canada will
bring the next likely round of showers to the forecast area on
Sunday.

The location and timing of the various vorticity maxima
rotating around the upper low, in addition to additional upper level
energy moving thorugh the longwave trough that will be re-
established across the east will determine the specific timing of
rounds of showers as we move into next week, and it is too far out
to pinpoint these kinds of details. However, given aforementioned
longwave troughing becoming re-established across the great lakes
and northeast, suffice it to say that the coming week will trend
towards the cool and showery.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions will prevail tonight and Wednesday. High cirrus level
cloudiness will cross the region tonight, with an increase in
somewhat lowerVFR level cloudiness late tonight and early Wednesday
across the western southern tier. A few scattered showers may cross
the southern tier Wednesday, especially in the morning. An isolated
shower also cannot be ruled out across the eastern lake ontario
region in the afternoon. Otherwise the rest of the area will remain
dry, with cirrus and mid levelVFR cloudiness slowly increasing.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR MVFR with rain developing.

Thursday...VFR MVFR within rain. Some ifr conditions late across
the so. Tier.

Friday... Ifr toVFR with a chance of showers.

Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Sunday... MVFRVFR in likely showers.

Marine
High pressure will maintain light winds and minimal wave action
tonight. Tomorrow winds will become southeasterly across lake erie,
and ene across lake ontario, with wave action limited to around 2
feet at the west end of lake ontario later Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Thursday ene winds will become a bit stronger as a storm system
tracks through the ohio valley and towards western lake erie. This
flow may generate higher waves on lake ontario with small craft
conditions probable on the western half of the lake, with lesser
wave action on the east end of lake ontario and lake erie.

Tides coastal flooding
Ene winds will increase somewhat Wednesday and Wednesday evening
on lake ontario into the 12-15 knot range, generating waves
averaging about 2 feet on the west end of the lake.

Low pressure will then move from the ohio valley to western lake
erie later Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile weak high
pressure will remain across quebec and northern new england. The
ageostrophic component between the two systems will support
increasing ene winds on Thursday for lake ontario, with winds
possibly reaching 20 knots for a good part of the day. The
ageostrophic component also tends to force the winds to have a
little more NE component than model forecasts. With this in
mind, it appears another higher impact day of lakeshore flooding
and shoreline erosion is probable along the south shore of lake
ontario west of the genesee river. A lakeshore flood watch has
been issued for Thursday for the lake ontario shore of niagara,
orleans, and monroe counties.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for nyz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock thomas
near term... Hitchcock thomas
short term... Tma
long term... Wood
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock thomas
tides coastal flooding... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 19 mi27 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 60°F 1009.8 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 20 mi45 min 61°F 1008.9 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 43 mi97 min E 3.9 G 5.8 53°F 47°F1008.6 hPa (-1.2)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi45 min NE 4.1 G 6 67°F 1008.8 hPa47°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi33 minNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F48°F53%1008.9 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11SW6SW6SW6SW6SW5SW6SW5SW7SW7SW7SW6SW8SW6SW7S4SW11SW9W4SW53NE12NE12NE7
1 day agoS7S9SW10SW8SW12SW13
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2 days agoE7E10E7SE4CalmSE6SE7E7E8SE12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.