Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Victor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:41PM Thursday November 23, 2017 11:01 PM EST (04:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:13AMMoonset 9:04PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 921 Pm Est Thu Nov 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Sunday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201711241015;;868481 FZUS51 KBUF 240221 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 921 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-241015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Victor, NY
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location: 43, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 240221
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
921 pm est Thu nov 23 2017

Synopsis
A weak frontal boundary will help enhance some lake effect rain and
snow showers northeast of lake ontario this evening, and to a lesser
extend off of lake erie. High pressure will then bring a quiet but
mild day Friday ahead of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
morning with scattered rain showers. Some weak lake effect snow is
then possible again southeast of the lakes Saturday night into
Sunday with only spotty, very minor accumulation.

Near term through Friday
A mid level shortwave seen in WV imagery over the upper great lakes
will track across the lower great lakes this evening. The continued
height falls aloft and ascent ahead of the wave will help to
enhanced a minor lake response northeast of lake ontario. While most
the area will remain dry tonight, the lake response will bring a few
mixed showers northeast of the lakes. Off lake erie, nothing has
materialized so far, and conditions will only become less favorable
overnight for any lake response. With this in mind, expect nothing
more than lake enhanced clouds.

Off lake ontario, expect a little more response with a band of snow
showers developing over central southern jefferson and northern
lewis counties mid to late evening, sinking south across the tug
hill through the early overnight. The snow may be mixed with some
rain near lake ontario, with mainly snow inland. Accumulations will
be limited to only a light coating in most locations, with up to an
inch or so across the higher terrain of the tug hill.

Otherwise, the weak ascent with the wave quickly departs to our east
overnight with drier air quickly building back in across the lakes.

Any lake response will diminish overnight, yielding a dry start to
the day Friday with just some lingering low-level lake clouds
overnight and early Friday especially along and north of the nys
thruway. These low clouds should scour out quickly Friday morning as
a stronger push of drier air and ssw downslope flow develops,
allowing for a good amount of sunshine from late morning on.

High pressure will slide to our east with the thermal ridge axis
arrive into western ny late in the day Friday. This will allow for
overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 30s on the lake plains
and upper 20s well inland to quickly climb to the upper 40s to low
50s on Friday. The warmest temperatures will be found in the typical
downslope regions across the lower genesee valley and northern
finger lakes.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Mid level trough will dig east into the great lakes and ohio valley
Friday night into Saturday. Weak cold front associated with this
upper level feature will push east through the region Friday night
into Saturday morning. Moisture is limited, so for the most part,
light rainfall amounts are expected. A deep southerly flow ahead of
the front will keep temperatures from dropping off much Friday night.

Colder air will be slow to deepen behind the front, with the better
part of Saturday likely to be dry outside of lingering showers with
the front and associated shortwave.

A secondary cold front crosses the lower great lakes late in the day
Saturday which will allow for better lake responses. Temperatures
aloft will gradually fall behind the front, perhaps just cold enough
for some light lake effect rain or snow showers by Saturday evening.

Accumulating snows may not occur until later Saturday night into
Sunday when 850 mb temperatures drop to near -6c, but even at then
over-lake instability is not overly impressive. Snow amounts should
be on the light side given the marginal over-lake instability. The
best chances for minor accumulations will be in favored west-
northwest flow areas of the chautauqua ridge, and areas southeast of
lake ontario from rochester to oswego. While accumulations are
expected to be on the lighter side, it still could make untreated
roadways more difficult to navigate. In addition, bufkit profiles
indicating plentiful low level moisture will be available through
the night even with lake induced equilibrium levels crashing below
5kft. This could be a set up for some freezing drizzle as surface
temperatures will be below freezing and lingering moisture will be
below the dendritic snow growth zone. This will need to be monitored
over the next few days.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Surface and mid-level ridging will build across western and central
new york Monday. Outside of a slight chance for a lingering shower
east of lake ontario, expect dry weather with low clouds breaking
for some sun. Temps with the ridging aloft will make a run into the
low 40s across wny but likely linger in the 30s east of lake ontario.

The surface and mid-level ridge axis shift overhead Monday night
with a warm front also lifting north of lake ontario. The front
looks too far north to bring any risk of showers Monday night. This
will set the stage for some above normal temps forecast Tuesday.

Southerly flow should pick up ahead of what the 23 12z GFS gem show
as an approaching cold front with Tuesday also expected to be dry.

The models do show a strong 50 knot low level jet crossing our
region Tuesday which could lead to some gusty winds with diurnal
mixing. Surface temps may make a run toward the upper 40s to low 50s
with clouds increasing from the west. Both the GFS gem show the cold
front reaching into wny Tuesday night with some widespread showers
while the ECMWF continues to be the more optimistic forecast with
the cold front or trough only glancing northern ny on Wednesday.

With these differences but persistence of the GFS gem solutions in
mind have bumped pops to low chance Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Surface temps on Wednesday have some bust potential with the spread
in the timing and location of the cold front. Have leaned toward a
blend of guidance for now yielding mid to upper 40s for highs.

Generally expect Thursday to be dry with models forecasting a quick
moving surface high pressure behind the front trough. Have included
slight chance pops as the GFS shows enhanced moisture shifting north
form the mid atlantic north of a mid-level cut off low. Temps should
be close to seasonal averages with highs in the low to mid 40s
unless cloud cover showers do work out as the GFS suggests.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Mainly very light lake effect precipitation will develop this
evening and continue through the early overnight east and northeast
of lake ontario. Expect areas of lake effect snow showers and local
ifr vsby from late evening through the early overnight, mainly just
south and east of kart. All of this will end by Friday morning. Cigs
will be a mix ofVFR and MVFR overnight, with MVFR favored east and
northeast of the lakes in plumes of lake effect clouds.

On Friday the lake effect clouds will quickly dissipate during the
morning as warmer air moves into the region. This will bring a
return toVFR with clearing skies.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR MVFR with rain showers likely.

Sunday... Mainly MVFR, localized ifr in -shsn SE of the lakes.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Marine
Small craft advisories are in place, as a moderate pressure gradient
remains in place between high pressure near the mid atlantic and low
pressure organizing over the canadian prairies. This low will cross
ontario and quebec through Saturday with a trailing cold front
crossing the eastern great lakes region Saturday, and a secondary
cold front Saturday night that will bring a prolonged period of sca
conditions to lake erie, and the far western and eastern sections of
lake ontario. A lighter southerly fetch of winds Friday will allow
for non-sca conditions along the nearshore waters of central lake
ontario.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am est Sunday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Saturday for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for
loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Monday for loz042-045.

Synopsis... Church hitchcock
near term... Church hitchcock
short term... Tma
long term... Smith
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Church hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 19 mi62 min SW 9.9 G 13 38°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 20 mi44 min 38°F 1014.3 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 43 mi72 min WSW 21 G 27 42°F 47°F5 ft1013.2 hPa (-0.4)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi44 min SSW 8.9 G 12 37°F 1014.1 hPa24°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi68 minSW 1010.00 miOvercast37°F25°F62%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W6W7W8SW7W3SW3SW7SW5SW7SW8SW9SW8SW11SW7SW8SW9SW8SW8SW8SW7SW6SW10SW8
1 day agoNW7NW10NW9NW11
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SW13SW7NW5CalmNW6SW4SW5W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.