Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Victor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:41PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 7:43 AM EST (12:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:29AMMoonset 8:11PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1231 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Saturday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow and rain showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201711221000;;778690 FZUS51 KBUF 220536 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1231 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-221000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Victor, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 221153
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
653 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
Cooler air on a brisk northwest wind will flow across the eastern
great lakes region today. This cooler air will generate some light
lake effect snow and flurries southeast of the lakes today, as well
as produce highs that will be below normal. Nuisance lake effect
snow late tonight, Thursday and Thursday night east and northeast of
the lakes may mix with a little rain thanksgiving afternoon.

Near term through tonight
A cold front is pressing eastward towards eastern new york this
morning, leaving our region in a brisk and cold northwest flow.

Synoptic precipitation, of leading edge rain and back half wet snow
is now across the eastern lake ontario and finger lakes region. A
few light flurries light snow showers of lake effect are beginning
southeast of lake erie.

Behind the front temperatures aloft at 850 hpa will drop to around -
9 to -10c today. This will bring a much cooler day... With highs in
the low to mid 30s, and also create enough lake instability to
generate lake effect snow showers. Inversion heights will be low,
around 5k feet, and the shallow structure to the bands of lake
effect snow will generally mean little accumulation of snow.

Northwest winds will focus lake snows southeast of the eastern great
lakes, with perhaps a half to one inch of snow across the hills of
sw nys, and the southern tug hill.

Lake effect snow will weaken to light snow flurries and possibly
briefly end tonight as high pressure from the midwest nudges
eastward. This feature will bring drier air in the lower levels, as
well as increase wind shear as winds back to more southwesterly.

Later in the night as the winds align, lake effect snow will likely
"intensify" off lake erie, with again light snow flurries now
forming and carried inland across so. Erie county, and then up
towards metro buffalo on a southwest wind. Shallow inversion heights
and the influx of drier air will warrant just high chance pops for
now... As any accumulation will be minor.

Likewise off lake ontario, backing winds will begin to carry light
snow showers and flurries northward towards watertown.

Lows tonight will drop back into the upper teens to mid 20s, several
degrees below normal.

Short term Thursday through Saturday
We can look forward to moderating temperatures for much of this
period... As the mercury will climb back to well above normal as we
work past thanksgiving. Our warm up will be the result of an
oscillating low amplitude flow... That with the mean h25 jet
straddling the canadian border... Will mean that our source region
will be increasingly pacific in nature. This is not to say that
there won't be weather to deal with though... Especially as we head
into the end of the week.

As we open this time frame on Thursday... The axis of a large surface
based ridge will exit to the east across new england while a mid
level trough will pass by to our north. Without significant height
falls though... Weak subsidence should persist across much of the
region. This will maintain generally fair weather for thanksgiving
day... However there will be some nuisance lake effect pcpn to deal
with northeast of both lakes.

Instability over the lakes on Thursday will be relatively weak with
a cap in place around 5-7 k ft... So the good news is that a
significant lake response is not in the cards. Also working against
any real snow accumulations will be the lack of moisture between 5-
10k ft. Since the snow dendritic growth zone will be found in an
alto-cu layer... This snow will fall through a dry layer and
experience a fair amount of sublimation evaporation before making it
to the surface. It will not be until the column moistens up during
the passage of the mid level trough that the pcpn will really have a
decent chance of making it to the ground. At that point... Temps will
be at or above freezing... So am not expecting more than a coating or
so of snow for sites generally northeast of the lakes.

As the passing mid level trough pushes a weak cold front to just
north of lake ontario Thursday evening... The steering flow over the
lakes will veer from southwest to west. This will initially allow
for some enhancement across the long fetch of lake ontario so that
an inch or so of accumulation could be found in the vcnty of the tug
hill. Keep in mind though that with a low cap of about 5k ft and a
shrinking dendritic growth zone... Snowfall rates should not be an
issue. Even less impressive lake snow showers will be found east of
lake erie where the onset of warm advection will bring a complete
end to the lake response. Otherwise... The majority of the forecast
area will experience fair weather with seasonable temperatures.

On Friday... A flat shortwave ridge will push across the lower great
lakes... While the large surface high will make its way off the mid
atlantic coast. A deepening southerly flow will then become
established between the high to our east and an approaching pacific
based cold front over the plains. The ensuing warm advection will
boost h85 temps into the upper single digits c over the western
counties... And this will allow our MAX temps to climb well into the
40s (nr 50 gen valley) while we return to at least partial sunshine.

A deep storm system in the vcnty of james bay will push the first of
two cold fronts to our doorstep by daybreak Saturday. While the
majority of Friday night will be rain free... There could be some
showers over the far western counties as we work our way through the
wee hours of Saturday morning. Since the southerly flow ahead of the
front will not allow temperatures to drop to critical winter
levels... The precipitation will be in the form of rain showers.

The pacific front will cross our forecast area Saturday morning.

While some morning rain showers will likely accompany the passage of
this fast moving front... The midday and early afternoon could be
pcpn free. Have backed way off on pops for this 4-6 hour window...

but as we progress deeper into the afternoon... A digging longwave
trough over the upper great lakes and continued cold advection over
our region will increase the potential for some mixed rain and snow
showers.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
This period will feature two distinctly different weather regimes. A
relatively short stint of wintry weather with widespread snow will
give way to a pronounced day to day warming trend as we head through
the first half of the work week.

A longwave trough pushing from eastern ontario to quebec will be the
driving force for a second cold frontal passage Saturday night. This
will be a stronger frontal passage... One that will usher h85 temps
as low as -12c across lake ontario and the eastern lake ontario
region. While this is not as cold as earlier forecast... It is
certainly cold enough to establish accumulating lake snows southeast
of both lakes. The frontal passage itself should generate a coating
an inch of accumulation across the forecast area... With several
inches looking more plausible for the chautauqua ridge and from
wayne county east across the southern half of oswego county. Have
raised pops to categorical for these areas. The stage will then be
set for what could be a challenging day for travel on Sunday.

Medium range ensembles remain in good agreement that a cold cyclonic
northerly flow will be in place over our region on Sunday... While
fairly deep synoptic moisture will persist. Given that h85 temps are
forecast to be in the vcnty of -12c and that there should be some
added lift from the northerly upslope flow... Fairly steady snow
should be found southeast of both lakes... Including along the bulk
of the new york state thruway. While accumulations are not expected
to be significant in themselves... It could be cold enough for the
snow to be a little more greasy so that untreated roadways would be
more difficult to navigate. Stay tuned.

Sunday night and Monday... A broad ridge over the mid west and upper
great lakes will push across the lower great lakes. The ensuing warm
advection and subsequent lowering subsidence inversion will bring an
end to the accumulating... Problematic lake snows southeast of both
lakes... While fair weather will be found elsewhere. This will be
start of the aforementioned warm up. Temperatures that will struggle
to the freezing mark on Sunday will climb to near 40 over the
western counties (mid 30s north country) on Monday.

The broad mid level ridge is then forecast to amplify over the
eastern third of the country on Tuesday. This will pump h85 temps to
near 10c... Which would easily support afternoon highs in the 50s for
the majority of western new york.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
For the 12z tafs a cold front has passed across the TAF region,
leaving a northwest flow across the region.

Synoptic precipitation will end early morning to our east, with
flight conditions improving back to MVFRVFR.

Limited lake effect response, and moisture beneath a subsidence
inversion will likely maintain strato-cu in the MVFR low endVFR
through at least the afternoon, before clearing skies andVFR flight
conditions expand across the region through the night.

A few light snow showers will be possible today near kjhw.

Outlook...

Thursday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of localized MVFR in scattered
snow and rain showers northeast of the lakes.

Thursday night... A chance of snow showers MVFR across the north
country, otherwise mainlyVFR.

Friday... MainlyVFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with rain showers likely.

Sunday... Mainly MVFR, with chance of localized ifr in lake effect
snow showers southeast of the lakes.

Marine
Northwest winds will continue small craft advisories on the lakes
today. Winds and waves will diminish through the day as high
pressure nears the region from the midwest. There is some
possibility that the SCA will need to be extended on lake ontario by
a few hours as waves may not diminish past 4 feet until closer to
mid evening hours.

A bit further down the road, it appears like that another round of
small craft advisories will be needed again for Thursday afternoon
and night as the pressure gradient tightens around a cold front
passing by just to our north.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
loz042>045.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Thomas
marine... Jm jjr thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 19 mi43 min WSW 7 G 9.9 36°F 1017.9 hPa
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 20 mi43 min 36°F 1017 hPa (+2.1)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 43 mi53 min WNW 18 G 21 40°F 48°F3 ft1015.9 hPa (+2.3)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi43 min NNW 16 G 19 38°F 1015.9 hPa (+2.5)33°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi49 minW 610.00 miOvercast35°F35°F100%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.