Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Victor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:54PM Monday June 18, 2018 3:17 AM EDT (07:17 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 11:55PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 145 Pm Edt Sun Jun 17 2018
This afternoon..East winds less than 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers and Thunderstorms with heavy rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 10 knots or less. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 58 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201806172100;;684619 FZUS51 KBUF 171745 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 145 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-172100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Victor, NY
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location: 43, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 180608
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
208 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
Mid summer warmth will continue across our region on Monday... But
with a significant ramping up in humidity. The sultry airmass will
serve as a perfect breeding ground for afternoon thunderstorms...

with storms becoming widespread late in the day and during the first
half of Monday night when a cold front will push south across the
region. Many of these will contain torrential rains and could also
include localized gusty winds. Somewhat cooler and notably less
humid conditions will follow in the wake of the front for mid week.

Near term through today
Impressive 592dm mid-level ridge will remain parked across the
eastern half of the country including the eastern great lakes
through the overnight. Expect very warm and increasingly humid
conditions across our region along with mainly dry weather. The
highest potential for convection will be across the saint lawrence
valley where some convection working across eastern ontario in
the northern periphery of the ridge may pivot southeast across
the international boarder during the wee hours of the morning.

Otherwise it will be sultry night... With surface dewpoints surging
into the mid to upper 60s... And overnight lows struggling to fall
below the lower 70s in most areas... The exception being the interior
portions of the southern tier and north country.

On Monday... The aforementioned broad upper level troughing will
press further southward across ontario and quebec before beginning
to make inroads into our region during the afternoon. As it does
so... It will push its attendant (and elongated) frontal boundary
to our northern doorstep by early Monday evening... With the timing
of this boundary having sped up a little bit in the 12z guidance.

Out ahead of the front... Our still very warm and humid airmass will
become even more humid... With atmospheric moisture content rising
to tropical levels (near record pwat values of 2-2.5 inches). Coupled
with increasing daytime heating and resultant moderate instability...

this will result in a very warm and juicy airmass for the front
and its parent upper trough to work with. Some initial scattered
convection may fire as early as late morning or early afternoon along
developing lake breeze boundaries and or an initial prefrontal
trough... With showers and thunderstorms then becoming increasingly
widespread from north to south during the afternoon as frontal
convergence and height falls aloft spread into the region.

As has been previously advertised... The combination of the very
juicy airmass preceding the front and atmospheric profiles favorable
for warm rain processes will result in an environment very favorable
for storms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall... Along with
an attendant flash flood risk. This risk would be highest across
our higher terrain... As well as in any areas if training storms
develop. Storm motion vectors of 20-25 kts and models showing cold
front shifting south without stalling slowing support storms moving
along and reducing a more widespread flash flood risk. Have continued
to mention this in the hwo.

There will also be a risk for some strong to severe storms given
both projected instability levels with SBCAPE 2-3k j kg and 0-6
km bulk shear values increasing to 30-40 knots out ahead of the
front. SPC day 2 continues with a marginal risk for severe storms
for finger lakes and eastern lake ontario region.

As for temperatures and humidity levels on Monday... Our still very-
warm airmass will again support widespread highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s... And this in tandem with surface dewpoints increasing to
around 70 degrees will make for truly oppressive conditions. These
will be worst from portions of the niagara frontier away from the
influence of lake erie... Eastward across the finger lakes and into
southern oswego county... Where a heat advisory has been hoisted for
apparent temperatures that should reach into the mid to upper
90s.

Short term tonight through Wednesday night
Monday night active weather will be ongoing as a cold front lies
along the saint lawrence valley to just north of lake ontario to
open the period. A prefrontal trough will likely serve as a focus
for convection, with some storms producing torrential downpours
within a moisture rich environment as noted by pwats possibly
exceeding 2.0 inches (rare for any summer month). The models have
increased the speed of the cold front some... Though with that said
there will still be concerns for possible flash flooding owing to
the large depth of the warm cloud layer and the front paralleling
the mean west to east flow. Will continue to mention this
possibility within the hwo.

A belt of stronger winds along the front, producing 0-6 km bulk
sheer values of 35 to 40 knots could bring strong gusty winds...

especially across areas east of the genesee valley. Any risk for
severe storms will be through the early evening hours before this
belt of stronger winds in the mid levels shifts towards the eastern
mid-atlantic region.

Convection producing both heavy rain will be a concern through the
evening and early overnight hours. The faster timing of the cold
front may allow for some clearing across the north country later in
the night... With this clearing and lighter winds producing some
patchy ground fog.

Tuesday, the cold front will have dropped to well south of the
nys pa line. A few showers may linger near the state line early in
the morning before cooler and drier air spreads southward. This
drying will send humidity values lower, making highs in the mid 70s
to around 80 much more tolerable.

Tuesday night surface high pressure will expand southward over our
region. Clear skies, especially to the north and light winds will
allow for temperatures to drop down into the 50s, with a few upper
40s possible across the north country. Some patchy fog will be
possible at night.

Wednesday and Thursday will be fine early summer days with daytime
temperatures rising to the mid 70s to lower 80s under fair weather
cumulus. Humidity levels will be comfortable, with dewpoints in the
50s. The only exception to this dry stretch will be a moisture
starved back door cold front that may bring a stray shower across
the saint lawrence valley and northern lewis counties Wednesday
evening. Lows Wednesday night will drop back into the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
This period will start dry before a return southwesterly flow of
moisture and warmth over the weekend brings an increase in humidity
and chances for showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure that brought nice weather mid-week will settle off the
atlantic coastline Friday, allowing for a moist southwesterly flow
to develop. This high should still give us one more fair weather
day, though temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with many
areas in the low to mid 80s. Tropical moisture lingering off the
texas coastline midweek will be transported northward, and we'll
start to notice an increase in dewpoints by Saturday across the
eastern great lakes region.

Eventually a storm system over the plains will push eastward, with
showers and thunderstorms blossoming along a warm front, and then as
the center of the low draws closer. Saturday will have just low
chances for precipitation across our far western counties, then a
chance of convection across the entire region on Sunday.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Strong ridging will keep fair dryVFR conditions in place through
the overnight.

Later today... A cold front will approach our area from the
north and this will lead to an increasing potential for showers
and thunderstorms. Many of the storms will produce torrential
downpours and could also include locally strong gusty winds.

Expect initiallyVFR flight conditions into the early afternoon
to lower to MVFR and possibly even localized ifr as the
convection develops and spreads southward during the afternoon
and evening.

As the showers and thunderstorms push south of the region after
06z... MVFR CIGS will improve toVFR in most areas. The
exception will be across the southern tier where ifr CIGS may
linger through the wee hours of Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...VFR.

Marine
The axis of a strong mid level ridge will be centered over the great
lakes through the overnight... While its associated surface high
will be anchored off the mid atlantic coast. This will not only
keep a weak surface pressure gradient in place over the lower
great lakes... But the ongoing warm advection over the abnormally
chilly waters will guarantee inefficient mixing of any stronger
winds from aloft. The result will be continued light winds and
negligible waves through the overnight.

While winds will freshen across the lower great lakes on Monday...

the larger concern will be the likelihood for strong storms late
Monday and early Monday night during the passage of a cold front.

There is high confidence that special marine warnings will be needed
during the course of Monday afternoon and Monday night.

In the wake of the front... Surface high pressure over the northern
plains and upper great lakes will arch to the southeast across the
lower great lakes on Tuesday. This fair weather feature will
generally remain in place through at least Wednesday night... So we
can fully anticipate another stretch of relatively light winds and
negligible waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Heat advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for nyz001>006-011-013-014.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Jjr rsh
short term... Thomas
long term... Thomas
aviation... Jjr rsh
marine... Jjr rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 19 mi78 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 78°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 20 mi48 min 79°F 1013.3 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 43 mi88 min SSW 9.7 G 9.7 67°F 62°F1013.6 hPa (-0.6)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi48 min SSE 8 G 9.9 74°F 1013.7 hPa65°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi24 minWSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F66°F81%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3SW4SW5SW5W5SW6SW4S8W9S8SW7NE9N6N6CalmCalmSW4S4SW5SW5SW5SW7SW8
1 day agoSW6SW5SW5SW5SW7SW75SW6W6W7N4NE9NE8N8NW4N7N5CalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmSW3
2 days agoW3SW5SW4SW4W4NW44N8N5
G14
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N6NW4NW4CalmSE3SW3SW4SW4W5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.