Thursday, April19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Victor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday April 19, 2018 5:35 AM EDT (09:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:04AMMoonset 11:08PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1007 Pm Edt Wed Apr 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of snow after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow and rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201804190915;;163705 FZUS51 KBUF 190207 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1007 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-190915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Victor, NY
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location: 43, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 190800
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
400 am edt Thu apr 19 2018

Synopsis
A large upper-level trough will pinwheel across new england while
keeping a supply of cool air in place across the region through
Friday. Meanwhile a wave will track just south of the great lakes
while merging with the upper-level trough Friday, producing periods
of snow showers and minimal accumulations through Friday. High
pressure will build across the region this weekend into early next
week finally brining drier weather and moderating temperatures.

Near term through tonight
Early this morning, the main area of steady moderate is quickly
pushing northeastward through pa and central ny, while dodging much
of the forecast area. However, as the western wave phases with the
mean trough over the northeast, there will be an area of light snow
that develops near lake ontario and pushes southeastward across the
forecast area this morning along a mid-level boundary. Any snow from
this feature will be light, and limited to a light coating at best.

The attendant surface low will be off the southern new england coast
later this morning and northwest flow will begin across the region.

The increasing cold air advection across the region in the wake of
the wave passage, with moist cyclonic flow in place under the upper-
level mean trough will support increasing snow showers this
afternoon and evening with some lake enhancement. The best chance of
some minor snow accumulations of a half to 1 inch will be in the
typical snow prone higher terrain locations of the western southern
tier and the tug hill. Otherwise, outside of the lake
enhanced upslope prone locations, expect a cloudy and cool day, with
high temperatures in the 30s.

Tonight, snow showers will likely maximize in sticking power this
evening over the higher terrain with the loss of solar insolation,
then diminishing into early Friday morning. This weakening will
occur as the 500 mb vort MAX on the back side of the mean trough
crosses the forecast area, with the attendant height rises and drier
air weakening and eventually ending the showers. Snowfall tonight
will likely be around 1 to 2 inches for the higher terrain
locations, while the lake plains locations see little if any snow
accumulation.

Short term Friday through Sunday night
On Friday a deep trough will begin to exit new england and move east
into the canadian maritimes. Cold northwest flow will be maintained
across the eastern great lakes, with synoptic scale low level
moisture slowly decreasing from west to east. 850mb temps of around
-9c will still support some modest lake effect snow showers in the
morning, aided by northwest upslope flow. The limited depth of
moisture and shallow inversion will keep the lake effect snow light,
with scattered snow showers and little accumulation in most areas.

There may still be a little better coverage of upslope snow showers
across the tug hill and western foothills of the adirondacks in the
morning, with an inch or less of additional accumulation. The snow
showers will gradually taper off and end from west to east through
the day. Temperatures will remain well below normal, with highs in
the lower 40s on the lake plains and mid to upper 30s for higher
terrain.

High pressure will build into the western great lakes Friday night
as the trough in the canadian maritimes continues to move away from
the area. Cold northwest flow will continue to support some lake
effect clouds south of the lakes, but this should scatter out late
Friday night as drier air arrives. It will be a cold night, with
lows in the 20s everywhere except the immediate lakeshores.

Saturday through Sunday high pressure will bring dry weather with
abundant sunshine both days. High pressure overhead and weak
northerly flow at 850mb will prevent any bonafide warm advection,
but day to day airmass moderation will allow temperatures to trend
steadily upward. Expect highs in the mid to upper 40s Saturday, and
lower 50s on Sunday in most areas. Light north to northwest winds
will keep the south shores of lake ontario and lake erie cooler.

Lows Saturday night will still be chilly with good radiational
cooling conditions. Expect lower 30s on the lake plains and mid 20s
in some of the cooler interior valleys and east of lake ontario.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
High pressure surface and aloft will remain in control Sunday night
through Tuesday as the center of the high slowly drifts off the new
england coast. This will maintain dry weather into early next week,
with just some modest increase in clouds by Tuesday as southerly
flow increases. That same southerly return flow will bring more
robust boundary layer warm advection by early next week, allowing
highs to warm into the 60s in many areas Monday and Tuesday away
from any lake influences.

Later Tuesday night and Wednesday the GFS and ECMWF are in
reasonable agreement in moving a weak cutoff low over the southeast
states slowly northward towards the carolina coast. Another northern
stream trough is forecast to evolve into a cutoff low over the
western great lakes by Wednesday, and will begin to interact with
the weak east coast low. The net effect will be to advect increasing
moisture northward into our region, with increasing chances of
showers by Wednesday. It will remain quite warm, with highs in the
60s again Wednesday away from lake influences.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
MainlyVFR MVFR conditions expected early this morning with brief
snow possible at the terminals. Snow showers will become fairly
widespread this afternoon, especially in upslope regions south of
the lakes with vsby occasionally below 2sm, with mainly MVFR
conditions outside of these.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Mainly MVFR with snow showers.

Friday... MainlyVFR with a chance of rain snow showers.

Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Sunday and Monday...VFR.

Marine
Winds will increase today as a low pressure system moves off the new
england coast. Small craft conditions will develop from west to east
across the lakes today and linger well into Friday.

A period of more tranquil conditions will likely come this weekend
into early next week as high pressure moves over the lower great
lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
Friday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm
edt Friday for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 2 pm edt
Friday for loz042.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 pm edt
Friday for loz045.

Synopsis... Church
near term... Church
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Church
marine... Church


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 19 mi36 min NW 8 G 13 36°F 1009.1 hPa (+0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 20 mi54 min 36°F 1008.4 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi54 min NNE 14 G 16 35°F 1006.4 hPa31°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi42 minNW 610.00 miOvercast35°F30°F82%1008.6 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE7CalmE8E4N4N3N4CalmW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.