Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 12:12 PM   Moonset 2:05 AM

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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 403 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Patchy fog after midnight. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night through Sat night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Sun through Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 403 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - A low pressures system will move from the mid-atlantic coast towards southern new england overnight with gusty easterly winds and occasional gale force gusts across the southern outer waters. In addition, coastal storm will bring periods of heavy rainfall which will reduce visibilities overnight into Thursday morning.
the low pressure system will shift east and away from southern new england Friday into Saturday. High pressure is expected late this weekend.

FXUS61 KGYX 151916 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 316 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak transitions from high to low pressure will provide several rounds of showers into the weekend, but will start to lose some steam by Friday, with limited chances for showers over the week, and temperatures fair close to normal. Stronger high pressure and warmer temperatures move in for early next week, with temperatures remaining seasonable for mid May.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across northern areas through the evening, with a general trend for these to slowly drift northward through the evening. They have been slow moving, with heavy rainfall rates embedded within these storms, but not lasting long enough to cause any flooding concerns so far. Some isolated localized flooding can't be ruled out over the next few hours, as some cells are starting to run over the same areas. Localized higher terrain also raises the threat a bit, but any issues would be expected to be highly localized.

Through the overnight, these showers and storms dissipate, with mostly cloudy conditions expected elsewhere. A low pressure center continues to slowly move off the Mid Atlantic coast south of New England tonight. Scattered showers likely reach into southern New Hampshire late tonight, but the bulk of the precip stays south of the NH/Mass border tonight.

Marine fog is expected to bank up along the coastline tonight, and likely in from coastline through the MidCoast. This result in areas of fog after midnight, with reduced visibilities at times. The fog quickly begins to burn off after sunrise tomorrow morning, and will be last to leave the immediate coastline around mid-morning tomorrow.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Tomorrow looks like a similar day to today overall, but with todays features in different locations. Showers look more frequent across southern NH tomorrow, but there is still some question as to how much moisture reaches this far north from the low pressure center. There is likely to be a sharp northern edge with this rain shield, so it's not out of the question that southern NH could spend most of the day raining, while central NH remains mostly dry. A wobble of about 20 miles or so will play a big role in determining whether Manchester and Nashua are mostly wet or dry tomorrow, but at this point it looks reasonable to expect at least some rain. Afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms are likely again across northern areas tomorrow, with some brief heavy downpours likely again.

Between the two areas of rain, mostly dry conditions and some sunshine yield a relatively dry and mild day. Central Maine looks most likely to see the most breaks of sun, allowing temps to warm to near 70 again. Mid to upper 60s are expected elsewhere, with lower 60s through the rainier locations.

Areas of fog are possible again tomorrow night, especially along the coastline and MidCoast. Clouds linger most of the night, with showers dissipating after the evening hours.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The 500 mb pattern across the N Hemisphere trends toward more amplified over Eurasia, and flatter over NOAM...with N jet retreating poleward toward the arctic circle over time. This leads to generally warmer 850 temps, and to weaker less dynamic system S of the jet into the CONUS. More specifically for the NE CONUS, it leads to very weak wave sliding just S of the areas under weak 500 mb ridge to our N. Ultimate this leads to several of weak and pulsating Rex blocks, which will generally help expand the ridging to our N southward into New England, and keep things mainly dry. Flow will remain light, so the coast will mostly be be at the mercy of the sea breeze through the period, with temperatures pretty close to or above normal inland most days, and close to normal or a little lower on the coast.

Friday, should be seasonable as we get ridging to move overhead with highs inland 70-75 but in the low to mid 60s on the coast, with mins Fri night in the the mid to upper 40s. If there’s a best chance for showers in the forecast, it looks like Sat afternoon, but better in the mtns, as a fast moving 500 mb wave moves through. SE flow freshens on Sat ahead of a front, and marine air should work further inland, with highs mostly in the 60s to around 70 in the CT valley. The sfc front wants to stall over the Gulf of ME on Sunday and keep us on the cool side of the sfc air, and ENE flow, so current forecast is for temps similar similar to Sat, but it should be mainly dry with more sun in the afternoon.

Early next week, we actually see some stronger ridging sandwich between closed low near the Carolinas, and another one in the Newfoundland/Labrador area. So, it looks dry and partly to mostly sunny with temps warming up on Monday, and the again on Tuesday, when temps near 80 will be possible in the S half of NH and interior SW NH.



AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions continue into the evening, outside of brief showers at HIE and possibly AUG through the evening. Marine fog moves onshore tonight, with IFR conditions likely at times at RKD and AUG. Some IFR restrictions are also possible at PWM, but confidence is lower for this than terminals farther east. Valley fog is also likely at HIE and LEB tomorrow. Conditions gradually improve at all terminals tomorrow, with some showers and brief restrictions possible at southern terminals tomorrow afternoon. Marine fog is possible again tomorrow night along the coast.

Long Term...VFR will be most common Friday through Monday, but could see some periods of IFR Fri night into Sat morning on the coast, and then maybe temp MVFR conds in showers on Sat afternoon.

MARINE
Short Term...Low pressure tracks south of the waters over the next couple of days. Marine fog develops tonight, and likely lingers near the shoreline through tomorrow night. Seas gradually build to near 5ft by late tomorrow night, but looks to remain below SCA levels for now.

Long Term...Winds/seas will stay below SCA levels Friday through Monday, as flow remains light.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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