Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saratoga Springs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:50PM Sunday August 20, 2017 11:16 AM EDT (15:16 UTC) Moonrise 4:39AMMoonset 7:13PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saratoga Springs, NY
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location: 43.01, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 201436
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1036 am edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure building into the mid atlantic region will bring
fair weather and seasonable temperatures on Sunday. A
southwesterly return flow around the high will bring mostly
sunny and warm weather Monday into Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A look out the window this morning shows evidence of smoke
aloft. A check of the visible satellite also indicates some
evidence for smoke as well. The non-operational goes-16 aerosol
product identifies smoke over lake ontario. The impact of all of
this - perhaps a degree or two less on the high temperature
today.

Other obscuration today is clouds, mainly across the higher
elevations. These will likely hang around until mid afternoon or
so. The hrrr spins up a shower or two across the adirondacks
this afternoon. These are discounted.

Some afternoon fair weather clouds should form but there should
be plenty of Sun and a west wind will be breezy at times. Some
weak cold advection will be occurring but the Sun and west winds
should help temperatures reach highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s. Will not make any changes to MAX temps for smoke.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday night
Warm advection begins late tonight and through Monday. West
southwest boundary layer flow and warming boundary layer
temperatures will support lots of Sun and mixing. The eclipse
will be seen quite well. We will see if limiting the Sun during
the peak time of heating will keep high temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s or if there will be little effect on temperatures
and some areas approach 90. Highs around 80 to lower 80s higher
terrain.

Good run to run consistency in guidance the last couple of days
showing strong upper energy dropping out of canada Tuesday to
just north of the great lakes by Wednesday. An upper impulse
tracking around the southern periphery of the primary upper
system will track through our region later Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

The initial approach of the upper energy combined with the
increased low level moisture and daytime heating will support a
pre frontal trough that will track east through our region
Tuesday afternoon and night. There are some discrepancies in
guidance as to how much instability will be over the region,
ranging from near 1000 j kg to potentially over 2000 j kg in
some southern areas Tuesday afternoon. There will be a strong
low level jet of 40+ kt and approaching strong upper jet core.

However, midlevel lapse rates will not be very steep and it
will be quite warm aloft. Most of the instability will be
surface based, so daytime heating and dewpoints will be
important in evaluating whether our region sees the greater
instability or less instability.

Strong boundary layer winds and decent deep layer shear will
make up for any limitations in instability if there are any.

There should be enough instability, shear and upper dynamics for
the potential for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Highs Tuesday in the upper 80s but maybe near 90
southern areas and lower to mid 80s northern areas.

Organized convection exits through the evening but the main
upper trough axis remains well west of our region and the
boundary layer thermal gradient leading edge of cooler and dryer
air does not track through our region until very late Tuesday
night or early Wednesday. So, there could be some scattered
showers and thunderstorms as the leading edge of the cooler air
approaches late Tuesday night. Since the low level temperatures
and dew points are not expected to fall too much behind the pre
frontal trough, lows Tuesday night will not be too cool, in the
mid to upper 60s but around 60 to lower 60s northern areas.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
The extended portion of the forecast will feature cool and mainly
dry late august weather as we head into next weekend.

A strong cold front will be progressing across portions of southern
ny and new england Wednesday morning. The latest gfs ECMWF canadian
ggem and several global ensemble members all show some residual
showers ahead of the front over portions of the mid hudson valley
and western new england in the morning. A secondary cold front
associated with the upper trough may also focus some scattered
showers over the rest of the forecast area. We kept a slight chance
of thunderstorms in over southeast portion of the forecast area
including the mid hudson valley southern taconics NW ct with small
amounts of instability and dewpoints still in the lower to possibly
mid 60s. Low and mid level cold advection will be going on during
the day, and h850 temps may start the day at +11c to to +16c from
northwest to southeast across the region, but will lower to +9c to
+13c by the afternoon based on the 00z gfs. It will become breezy
and less humid by the late afternoon. Highs will be mainly in the
upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys with upper 60s to mid 70s over
the hills and mtns.

Wednesday night into Thursday... The cooler air mass continues to
build in with a mean longwave trough setting up over southeast
canada, the great lakes region, and the northeast. The 00z gefs
indicates h500 heights on the order of 1 to 2 standard deviations
below normal with h850 temps slightly below normal, especially west
of the hudson river valley. Some short-wave energy moving through
the cyclonic flow in the upper trough will focus some lake effect
isolated to scattered rain showers downwind of lake ontario that may
impact the western adirondacks, and west central mohawk valley.

Diurnal cumulus will likely pop-up along or near the higher terrain
too. Otherwise, humidity levels will be comfortable with partly to
mostly sunny conditions during the afternoon with a large canadian
anticyclone ridging in from upper midwest and western great lakes
region. Lows Wed night will be mainly in the 50s with some upper
40s over the southern adirondacks, eastern catskills and southern
greens,
thu night into sat... The air mass will feel a bit like early autumn
with temps ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s both Thu and fri
nights. There could be some patchy radiational mist or fog along or
near the major river valleys. H850 temps will only be in the +8c to
+10c range over the region on Friday with limited mixing due to the
strong subsidence from the sfc high with MAX temps in the 60s over
the mountains and mainly lower to mid 70s over the hills and in the
valleys with a few upper 70s in the mid-hudson valley and NW ct. Not
much change with the sensible weather is expected heading into the
weekend with the sfc anticylone shifting from the great lakes region
to over the northeast. High temps will be similar to Friday with
highs running about 5 degrees or so below normal for late
august.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
An upper level trough continues to move east of the region this
morning. High pressure will ridge in from the ohio valley and
mid atlantic region today into tonight.

Mid-level cloudiness is mainly impacting kgfl kalb this morning
with some high clouds near kpou. Low MVFR stratus developed at
kpsf this morning. The low stratus should dissipate between
13z-14z there with better mixing and the upper trough moving
further downstream. Some lingering cumulus stratocumulus will
linger in the 4-5 kft agl range there into the pm.

By the late morning into the early afternoon expect sct-bkn
diurnal fair weather cumulus in the 4-5 kft agl range. The skies
will quickly clear in the late afternoon early evening due to
the strong subsidence with the sfc high. Some radiational mist
or fog is possible in the tonight with the best chance in the
climatological favor TAF sites of kgfl and kpsf where we have
ifr lifr conditions forecasted mainly after 06z mon.

The winds will increase from the west to northwest at 8-12 kts
in the late morning into the afternoon with some gusts in the
15-20 kt range especially at kalb kpsf. The winds will become
light to calm shortly before or just after 00z mon.

Outlook...

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of shra... Tsra.

Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
High pressure building into the mid atlantic region will bring
fair weather and seasonable temperatures on Sunday. A
southwesterly return flow around the high will bring mostly
sunny and warm weather Monday into Tuesday.

Rh values will be near 100 percent at night. Rh values will be
40 to 55 percent this afternoon and Monday afternoon.

Winds will be west at 5-15 mph today with a few gusts to 20
mph this afternoon. Winds will switch to southwest and again
diminish to 5-10 mph or less tonight, increasing to around 15
mph Monday.

Hydrology
Widespread rainfall forecast during the next week is forecast to
be less than an inch. Some locally higher amounts are possible
in showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Only minor changes in stage and flow are forecast for larger
rivers and streams.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Equipment
While repairing the azimuthal gear box, radar technicians have
determined that the bull gear on kenx radar needs to be
replaced. This will require the radar to be out of service until
at least next Friday, august 25th.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Nas
near term... Okeefe nas
short term... Nas
long term... Wasula
aviation... Wasula
fire weather... Nas
hydrology... Nas
equipment... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 69 mi47 min 1017 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY14 mi31 minW 615.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F60°F69%0 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY18 mi26 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F59°F60%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW8NW8W9--W9----CalmCalm--------------------W6W6--W6
1 day agoS5S11
G16
S6S4S3------S5--S3------------------SW3CalmW6W6
2 days agoSE3NE3E8--------------Calm------------------SW6S7S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sun -- 04:21 AM EDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:10 AM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:54 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:20 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.92.53.94.85.45.34.43.32.41.30-0.7-0.312.33.34.24.5432.11.30.3-0.5

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:13 AM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:00 AM EDT     -0.87 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:46 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:10 PM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
12.63.94.85.35.14.132.10.9-0.3-0.9-0.312.33.34.14.33.72.71.91-0-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.