Wednesday, December19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saratoga Springs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:24PM Wednesday December 19, 2018 4:55 AM EST (09:55 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 4:31AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saratoga Springs, NY
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location: 43.01, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 190920
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
420 am est Wed dec 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to allow for dry and chilly
weather today into tonight. Milder temperatures are expected
tomorrow with increasing amounts of cloud cover. A storm system
will bring a widespread rainfall, some of which may heavy at times,
to the region tomorrow night into Friday. In addition, the storm
will allow for some gusty winds across the higher elevations as well.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 420 am est... A large area of high pressure extends from
upstate new york southward into the mid-atlantic states.

Satellite imagery shows fairly clear skies for the most part,
although there are some patches of passing cirrus and a few
patches of lower stratocu over the adirondacks due to some lake
moisture getting picked up within the northwest flow.

Skies should be mostly sunny through the day today, as high
pressure passes by to the south and weak shortwave ridging aloft
passes over the area, with just some thin cirrus from time to
time. Temps aloft have warmed considerably compared to
yesterday, so highs today will be warmer, with reading mainly in
the 30s. The high pressure will also allow for much lighter
winds as compared to yesterday as well.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Dry weather will continue for tonight as high pressure departs
off the eastern seaboard. Skies will continue to be fairly clear
and winds will be light, allowing temps to fall into the upper
teens to mid 20s for lows.

On Thursday, the next storm system be approaching from the west,
as a highly amplified trough takes shape over the mississippi
valley. A closed off low within the southern stream over the
gulf coast states will be phasing with a northern stream
shortwave moving across the upper midwest. Ahead of this
developing system, broad south to southwest flow will be in
place aloft, as the downstream ridge starts to strength in
response over the western atlantic. Clouds will increasing
through the day, although most areas should remain dry. Temps
will warming aloft, and highs look to reach the upper 30s to mid
40s.

A surface low will be developing across the northern alabama on
Thursday night and will be lifting northward along the
appalachian mountains for Friday, reaching western new york by
Friday evening. Well ahead of this low pressure area, strong
warm advection isentropic lift will bring steady rainfall
northward out of the mid- atlantic states and towards the
northeast for Thursday night into Friday morning. The LLJ looks
very impressive, with southerly winds at 850 hpa of 50 to 75
kts. According to the 00z naefs, the v-component of wind looks
to reach 2-4 std above normal over the eastern seaboard on
Thursday night into Friday, with pwats reaching around 4 std
above normal. This should allow for a period of heavy rainfall,
especially across southern and eastern areas, with the highest
rates for late Thursday night and into the first part of Friday
morning. See the hydro section for how we anticipate this
rainfall to impact our area.

The southeast winds associated with the strong low-level jet may
allow for some gusty winds across the high terrain of the
taconics and western new england for Thursday night into Friday
morning. This type of setup favors channeled flow across parts
of the high terrain and some gusts may exceed 40 mph. Wind
advisory and or high wind warning will likely be needed across
this area.

When rainfall begins Thursday evening, wet-bulbing may allow a
few isolated spots within the eastern adirondacks to briefly
fall to near freezing, before strong warm advection allows
temps to rise. Cannot rule out some patchy freezing rain for a
few hours across the adirondacks, but coverage impact looks
minimal at this time. Otherwise, temps starting out into the mid
to upper 30s for Thursday evening will rise through the 40s for
Thursday night. By Friday, temps will reach the upper 40s to
upper 50s for highs.

The steadiest rainfall will be ending Friday afternoon, as the
best LLJ isentropic lift shifts northeast of the area. Still,
there will be patches of rainfall through the rest of the day
and into the evening, as the surface low slowly passes by to
west and the storm's occluded front moves through the area.

A few showers will continue into Friday night, but we will start
to get into the storm's dry slot and coverage will be
diminishing. Still, the large closed off upper level low
centered just west of the area will provide lift, so cannot rule
out some additional light showers from time to time. Temps
aloft will start to crash, but it should remain mild enough for
Friday night for p-type to remain rain showers for now. Lows
will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
The upper low will be exiting north and east Saturday and cold
advection will spread into our region from the west. There will also
be some lingering scattered rain and snow showers as the leading
edge of the cold advection exits. West to northwest winds will be
gusty and at least intervals of Sun will help temperatures to rise a
few degrees before falling in the afternoon when cold advection
deepens. Highs Saturday in the 40s but 30s in western areas, with
falling temperatures in the afternoon.

There is a decent consensus in sources of guidance ensembles for a
dry period through Sunday but the wind flow off the great lakes will
support some snow shower activity into the southern adirondacks and
western mohawk valley. Highs Sunday in the 30s to around 40 but 20s
southern adirondacks.

There is increasing spread in the guidance as to the timing and
track of little upper impulses within northern stream flow that
track into our region. There is not much moisture associated with
the upper impulses but they do track near over the great lakes and
enhance any lake effect snow activity. There are some uncertainties
as to the direction of the low level flow, such as what time periods
the flow will be more westerly and when it will be more
northwesterly. The wind direction will determine what periods could
have a single band into the southern adirondacks and what periods
could have multi bands into the western mohawk valley, schoharie
valley and eastern catskills. There could be some upslope into the
taconics, southern green mountains and berkshires as well.

With those uncertainties, including chance to slight chance for many
areas Monday but confining any chances and slight chances to western
areas Monday night and Tuesday. Highs Monday and Tuesday in the 30s
to near 40 but 20s in higher terrain.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure in control of the weather with just a few thin high
clouds from time to time over the next 24 hours. No fog or
precipitation expected either, so no restrictions to visibility.

West to northwest winds st 6 kt or less trending to calm through
sunrise. Winds will become light from the south at 6 kt or less
around 14z, then trend back toward calm after 00z this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday night: high operational impact. Definite ra.

Friday: high operational impact. Definite ra.

Friday night: high operational impact. Likely shra.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Hydrology
Dry weather is expected to continue today into tomorrow,
allowing for river and stream levels to hold steady. With cold
temperatures in place this morning and again tonight, some ice
is expected to form and strengthen on bodies of water.

A storm system will bring a widespread rainfall to the region
for tomorrow night into Friday. Some additional showers will
also occur Friday night into Saturday as well. There is still
some uncertainty regarding exact amounts, but current guidance
forecasts indicate 1 to 2.5 inches of rain is possible with some
locally higher amounts, especially along the east southeast
slopes of the higher terrain. The milder temperatures will also
allow for some snow melt. The snow pack is the greatest across
the southern adirondacks, southern greens, and northern
berkshires. Strong southeast winds could also erode some of the
snow pack tomorrow night into Friday.

The latest mmefs guidance and some of the experimental hefs
have some river points get to minor flood stage with the
combination of the runoff from the rainfall and the snow melt.

The locations are variable, but it seems the trend is from the
capital region, southern vt and the eastern catskills south east
into the housatonic basin that will need to be carefully
monitored.

At the very least some poor drainage flooding of low-lying
areas, and ponding of water is likely as rainfall rates could
exceed a quarter inch per hour at times late tomorrow night into
Friday night. A flood watch will likely be needed later in
time for parts of the area. The latest nerfc forecasts do
indicate some tidal flooding is possible for the poughkeepsie
gauge on Friday as well.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Frugis
short term... Frugis
long term... Nas
aviation... Nas
hydrology... Frugis wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 69 mi86 min 18°F 1021 hPa14°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY18 mi65 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds17°F10°F77%1021 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------NW15
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1 day ago------------------CalmCalmCalmW6--W12
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2 days ago------------------CalmCalmCalmN4NE4NE4N4N6--N3N3----N3--

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Wed -- 01:52 AM EST     4.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:30 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:36 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:22 PM EST     5.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:18 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.544.23.82.81.81.10.5-0.1-0.20.82.43.84.65.154.23.12.21.50.700.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:44 AM EST     4.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:30 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:26 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:14 PM EST     5.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:08 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.64.14.23.72.61.710.4-0.1-0.112.63.94.75.14.9432.11.40.5-00.41.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.