Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:16PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 12:09 PM CDT (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:49AMMoonset 9:18PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1006 Am Cdt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm cdt this evening through late Friday night...
Rest of today..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Slight chance of rain late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots veering east 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots after midnight. Rain likely through around midnight, then rain after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday..East wind 15 to 25 knots easing to 10 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Rain. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain likely through around midnight, then chance of rain after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and overnight.
LMZ645 Expires:201703292215;;265911 FZUS53 KMKX 291506 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1006 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ645-646-292215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 291509
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
1009 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017

Marine Dense fog advisory was allowed to expire at 9 am. Main
focus shifts now to increasing onshore and long duration wind
regime tonight which gets underway tonight. This will build high
waves near the shore and remain in place through late Friday
night.

Pc

Prev discussion (issued 625 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017)
update...

was tempted to cancel the dense fog advisory for a couple
northeast counties given observations and webcams, but latest
satellite is showing some fog or low cloud development in that
area. Thus figured it was worth keeping those counties in for a
couple more hours until the expiration.

Otherwise, should see the fog hang on in the south half of the
forecast area this morning... Winding down around mid-morning. Fog
may keep going into late morning toward lake michigan.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

will see fog hang on into mid-morning, possibly into late morning
toward lake michigan. Daytime mixing should improve conditions for
the afternoon.

Attention then turns to precip ahead of approaching low pressure.

Rain will move into the west by late afternoon, spreading east
across the forecast area during the evening hours. The rain will
persist through Thursday.

Still looks like there could be a mix with or changeover to snow
in the north tonight into Thursday morning, mainly north of a
line from wisconsin dells to port washington. It will be a
struggle to get much accumulation due to borderline temperatures,
though an inch or so is possible. Snow will transition to rain
everywhere by late Thursday morning.

Lower clouds and visibilities will return tonight into Thursday
with the arrival of the precipitation.

Prev discussion... (issued 326 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium to high:
extended the dense fog advisory farther west per latest satellite
and obs. May need to eventually include the last row of western
counties if this area of fog keeps going. Still looks like daytime
mixing should bring an end to the dense fog by mid-morning, so no
change to the expiration time of the advisory.

High clouds will continue to push in from the west this
morning... With cloud bases gradually lowering into the afternoon as
deeper moisture arrives ahead of approaching low pressure. Tricky
temps today given the current fog/stratus in the area and
approaching clouds. Stuck close to a blend of model temps due to the
uncertainty.

Rain is expected to arrive in the west by late this afternoon,
spreading east across the forecast area this evening and continuing
overnight. The rain is still expected to mix with or changeover to
snow in the north. Models have been trending north with this system
the last 24-36 hours though, which has resulted in somewhat lighter
amounts this forecast. Temperatures will be borderline through this
event, so accumulations will struggle where it does snow.

Long term...

Thursday and Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The weakening upper low and surface low will track across illinois
through tonight. Rounds of light rain are expected across southern
wi Thu and Thu night as waves of vorticity and frontogenesis
spread through the area. Brisk east winds and precip will keep
temperatures raw, with highs Thu in the upper 30s and lows thu
night in the lower to mid 30s.

There is a chance for some snow to be mixed into the rain early thu
morning, but temps will warm above freezing rather quickly as the
low gets closer.

Drizzle or light rain is expected to linger all the way through
Friday.

Saturday... Forecast confidence is high.

Drier air with high pressure building into the region on Saturday
will help to scour out the clouds a little. Highs should return to
the 50s inland from the lake.

Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Another upper low will track from the southern plains through the
mid mississippi river valley over the weekend. The rain with this
system is expected to remain primarily south of the wi/il border,
but may clip southern wi Mon into Tuesday. Precip type should be all
rain.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

fog and low clouds will continue to drift westward across southern
wisconsin early this morning. Improving conditions are expected by
mid morning on Wednesday withVFR cigs/vsbys returning for a time.

Lower MVFR CIGS will stream back in by evening ahead of advancing
low pressure. Precipitation will overspread the area during the
evening. It should remain rain along the wi/il state line, but
become mixed with or change over to snow for a time north of
milwaukee and madison.

Marine...

dense fog is likely to continue into mid-morning, so will leave the
advisory as is for now.

Gusty winds and higher waves are likely from this evening into
Friday night as low pressure moves through the region. Have decided
to issue a small craft advisory for this period.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am cdt
Saturday for lmz645-646.

Small craft advisory from 2 am Thursday to 4 am cdt Saturday for
lmz643-644.

Today/tonight and aviation/marine... Ddv
Thursday through Tuesday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 2 mi50 min NNE 11 G 12 37°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi90 min NE 6 G 7 41°F 1027.8 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi70 min NNE 11 G 13 37°F 1025.7 hPa (+0.6)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 45 mi70 min NE 13 G 17 37°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi18 minNE 610.00 miOvercast41°F36°F82%1026.5 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi25 minE 410.00 miClear43°F32°F66%1025.7 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi25 minE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy43°F33°F71%1025.7 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi17 minNE 710.00 miFair41°F36°F82%1026.8 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE10NE8NE9NE8N6N7NE8N7NE6N54W4SW3CalmCalmE3N4N3NE6NE6NE8NE7NE6
1 day agoE5E6E3E4E5E6NE6NE8N7NE8N5N5N6N7N7N8N10N6N7N9N10N12NE11NE11
2 days agoNE4N4N3NE5NE5NE4NE3N4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmW4W3NW6W5NW5NW5CalmW3CalmE5NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.