Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:36PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 12:32 PM CDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:23AMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 931 Am Cdt Tue Jun 27 2017
Rest of today..West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest early in the afternoon, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..South wind 10 to 20 knots veering southwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ645 Expires:201706272215;;903915 FZUS53 KMKX 271431 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 931 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644>646-272215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 271520
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1020 am cdt Tue jun 27 2017

Update A pleasant summer day is underway. Few-sct cumulus are
expected this afternoon while a lake breeze will occur but remain
fairly close to the lake mi shoreline given the wly prevailing
flow. High temps will reach into the middle 70s. Sly flow and warm
advection will gradually increase tnt, thus bringing a milder
night than previous ones. The nose of a strong swly LLJ and
associated warm, moist advection will move to the ms river by
daybreak along with the associated area of showers and tstorms.

The strong LLJ and a shortwave trough aloft will then bring
showers and tstorms to SRN wi for Wed into Wed eve.

Marine An afternoon lake breeze is expected today. Otherwise,
the main concern is the breezy sly winds and building waves for
wed becoming breezy swly winds for Wed nt. A small craft advisory
will likely be needed.

Prev discussion (issued 542 am cdt Tue jun 27 2017)
aviation(12z tafs)...

look forVFR conditions through the TAF period. Scattered clouds
are expected today with high pressure keeping winds light under
10kts. Mid and high level clouds will increase tonight as the
high slips off to the east. Showers and thunderstorms will
gradually spread west to east after 12z Wednesday with MVFR cigs
possible later Wednesday morning.

Prev discussion... (issued 223 am cdt Tue jun 27 2017)
Wednesday and Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A low amplitude wave will progress east-northeast from the western
dakotas Wednesday morning into the western great lakes Wednesday
night. Surface low pressure attendant to the upper wave will track
from the northern high plains to the michigan u.P., with the
associated cold front pushing slowly southeast through southern
wisconsin Wednesday night. The primary forecast concern for this
period is the chance for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall
late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

The latest forecast model guidance continues with good support for
large-scale ascent on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Look for a
shortwave perturbation to propagate east-northeast from the western
dakotas in the morning into northern wisconsin by evening. Forcing
for ascent now arrives a bit earlier than previously suggested, with
increasing mid-level moisture, differential cyclonic vorticity
advection, and 500 hpa wind fields by Wednesday morning. This, in
tandem with strong low-level warm advection should be enough to fire
off a round of showers and thunderstorms during the morning to early
afternoon hours. Forecast models suggest these storms would be
elevated, with effective inflow layers above 800 mb. Severe weather
is not likely from this round as the best instability and shear
remains to our west during this time.

Showers and thunderstorms should re-develop during the late
afternoon to evening ahead of the slowly southeastward advancing
cold front. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe, but the
risk is conditional given the evolution of the pre-storm
environment. So let's talk a bit about what we're seeing at the
moment. From a kinematic perspective, things look pretty good, given
the strong 50+ knot low-level jet impinging on southern wisconsin
from the southwest. This would promote a backing low-level wind
profile, with around 35 knots of shear within the lowest 3
kilometers. Things get a little trickier when it comes to
instability. By evening it should be feeling pretty muggy as 65+
degree dewpoints advect northward via strong southerly winds.

Forecast models project enough surface heating (temperatures into
the mid to upper 70s) along with this moisture to build around 1500
j kg of MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The fly in the ointment
remains the moderate to strong low-level warm advection that the
model guidance continues to generate well into Thursday evening.

This raises the possibility that we see debris clouds and weaker
showers storms lasting into the evening, potentially keeping us
from reaching those higher CAPE numbers. Of course, given the
strength of the shear involved, we may still see a few severe
storms even with the more limited instability. If severe storms do
develop, the best time frame is from around 6 pm to midnight. All
modes of severe weather, including tornadoes, would be possible.

Heavy rainfall and perhaps localized flooding is a concern during
the evening and night given strong southwesterly moisture
transport along along the frontal zone and precipitable water
values around 1.75 inches.

Any lingering precipitation should end Thursday morning as the
frontal zone pushes south into central iowa and northern illinois.

Friday through Monday... Forecast confidence is low.

A mid-level shortwave will escort a surface wave along the stalled
frontal zone on Friday, with showers and thunderstorms expected. It
appears that the front should remain just to our south, keeping
the greatest instability over northern illinois.

The upper flow pattern remains progressive into early next week.

Showers and thunderstorms are again possible on Saturday Saturday
night with a shortwave and surface trough. The next chance for rain
appears to be on Monday. Temperatures will be seasonal.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

look forVFR conditions through the TAF period. Scattered clouds
are expected today with high pressure keeping winds light. Mid
and high level clouds will increase tonight as the high slips off
to the east. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually spread west
to east after 12z Wednesday.

Marine...

low pressure approaching from the west will bring breezy gusty
southerly winds to the nearshore waters Wednesday through
Wednesday night. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for
that time.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Gehring
today tonight and aviation marine... Davis
Wednesday through Monday... Spm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 2 mi43 min NW 7 G 11 68°F
45013 6 mi54 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 64°F 56°F1018.9 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi53 min WNW 8 G 14 72°F 1019 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi33 min WNW 11 G 14 69°F 1019 hPa (-1.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 45 mi53 min W 9.9 G 13 68°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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W7
G11
SW6
G12
W9
G24
W9
G17
NW13
G17
NW11
G17
NW5
G9
N11
G14
NW10
G15
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G10
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G12
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G7
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W2
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G8
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W8
G16
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G11
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G12
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G13
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G12
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G14
SW9
G15
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G14
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G13
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G9
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G15
W2
S4
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SW3
SW4
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G6
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G6
W3
G7
SW10
G17
W6
G13
2 days
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SW8
G14
W8
G16
W6
G15
W7
G14
W9
G17
W6
G17
W8
G18
W7
G18
W7
G12
W3
G7
SW2
G5
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G7
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G11
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G13
W3
G9
W3
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G8
SW7
G13
W5
G11
W4
G12
W6
G15
W9
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi41 minWNW 12 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F46°F40%1018.8 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi48 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F44°F40%1019.3 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi48 minW 9 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F46°F46%1020 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi40 minWNW 6 G 1410.00 miA Few Clouds72°F46°F41%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW17
G25
NW15
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G26
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G27
NW12
G18
NW11NW11
G16
NW11NW7NW5W3W4W3W4W5W6W6W6W8W8W9NW12
G19
W12
G18
1 day agoW16W15W14
G22
W14
G20
W14
G19
W13W16W9
G16
W8W9W7W6W6W6W6W7W5W6W7W9W11NW10
G19
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2 days agoW10W15
G24
W14
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W12
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SW8SW9SW9W9W11W10W8W5W6W8W10W11W9
G18
W13
G18
W16
G20
W11
G23

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.