Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:17PM Thursday May 23, 2019 10:24 AM CDT (15:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:24AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 906 Am Cdt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering north after midnight veering northeast early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east late in the morning, then becoming east 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest early in the morning. Chance of showers through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ645 Expires:201905232200;;330398 FZUS53 KMKX 231406 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 906 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-232200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 231056
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
556 am cdt Thu may 23 2019

Update
Forecast remains on track for the day.

Aviation(12z tafs)
Conditions have cleared out following the overnight showers and
storms.VFR conditions are thus expected through the TAF period.

The main concern for aviation will be winds that will be gusty
from the west up to 25 kts during the afternoon. Otherwise another
low pressure system to the west will push northeast bringing
chances for showers and even some weak storms overnight. CIGS and
vsbys are expected to remain inVFR through the overnight hours
before MVFR CIGS may push into the region.

Prev discussion (issued 334 am cdt Thu may 23 2019)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

showers and storms have moved out of the area with the cold front
following behind. Its passage has allowed for clearing skies
associated with a much drier column as high pressure builds into
the region. Skies will remain partly cloudy to mostly clear
through the day.

Into the evening and overnight period we will have another low
pressure system push northeast over the central plains. This will
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms during this period.

The main forcing will be associated some upper level pva,
divergence aloft with some low level frontogenesis WAA associated
with the warm front. The low level jet may also play a role
overnight as well. As the front lifts north we will see weak
instability push into the region giving the potential for some
weak storms. There is still a bit of uncertainty in the models
with how exactly this period will play out with the ECMWF and
canadian having a slightly different solution than the NAM and
gfs. There will be precipitation chances regardless and these will
increase from west to east into the morning.

Long term...

Friday through Saturday night... Forecast confidence... Medium
as a ridge builds over the southeast us, a system ejecting out of
the great basin will generate storms early Friday morning over ia.

Over southern wi, winds out of the E SE will keep a cooler drier
airmass is place and any storms that do move into the area will be
elevated in nature. However, think that with the upper level
system further west, we won't have the forcing to really sustain
any of these storms and pops likely end up lower than what some
models are suggesting. Will wait for a little better consistency
before starting to nudge down pops for Friday morning.

Good WAA and deep moisture advection aloft later Friday will push
pwats close to the climatological MAX for this time of year with
values of 1.6 to 1.7 inches. By the afternoon hours Friday a warm
front will lift north through the area and low to mid 60s
dewpoints advect in. The consistent question for Friday is just
how much clearing we'll see and the impact that might have on
temps and afternoon destabilization. It may not be until late
afternoon early evening as a LLJ nudges into the area before we
see convection fire off and at that point CAPE could range from
800 to 1,500 j kg. These values combined with the shear of 40 to
50kts would still support some strong to possibly severe storms
late Friday into the overnight hours.

We remain in the warm sector for Saturday with the low tracking
north of the area. Highs on Saturday across much of wi will
eclipse the 80 degree mark. Lapse rates steepen on Saturday and
strong shear aloft still in place could support a few strong
storms. The only issue is that overall forcing is weaker and the
arrival of a front will be occur during the overnight hours.

Sunday through Sunday night... Forecast confidence... Medium to
high
high pressure building in to our north will push the frontal
boundary south of the area. Subsidence aloft will keep the skies
clear and even though we have more northerly winds, highs in the
70s are forecast.

Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence... Low to medium
models have come in a bit faster in bringing the next system into
the area with showers moving in Monday morning. The pattern is
more progressive and as we get into the warm sector Monday
afternoon forcing should be a bit more supportive of numerous
storms. We remain in an unsettled pattern as systems moving out of
the SW us ride the ridge into the area. Multiple rounds of storms
look possible next week.

Aviation(09z tafs)... Showers and storms have moved out of the
area with the cold front following behind. Skies will scatter out
this morning leaving partly cloudy to mostly clear skies through
the day. Winds will however be breezy from the west in the late
morning afternoon hours.

Marine...

fog may be a slight concern over the lake this morning but should
clear out into the late morning and afternoon as better moisture
leaves the area. The other slight concern for the day will be
nearshore winds that may be around 15-20 kts possibly gusting to
25 kts this afternoon. At the moment we have held off on a small
craft advisory but may need one later this morning for the
afternoon hours. Otherwise skies will remain mostly sunny today
after clouds move out this morning in association with the front.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Ark
today tonight and aviation marine... Ark
Friday through Wednesday... Stumpf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 2 mi35 min W 23 G 26 63°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi85 min W 13 G 22 64°F 1014.6 hPa (+1.7)
45187 36 mi45 min W 16 G 21 60°F 49°F1 ft
45186 45 mi45 min WSW 18 G 25 61°F 50°F1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 45 mi45 min W 19 G 25 65°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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S11
G17
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G21
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G17
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G22
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G24
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--
NE4
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NW6
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N5
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NE12
G15
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G11
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G14
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E11
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi33 minW 17 G 2610.00 miA Few Clouds66°F45°F47%1013.8 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi40 minW 16 G 2510.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F44°F49%1014.2 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi40 minW 16 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F46°F56%1014.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi32 minW 17 G 2710.00 miFair67°F46°F49%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE13SE10SE12SE11S14
G19
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G36
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SW10S6SW9SW8SW9SW10SW7SW9W8W8SW7SW9SW10
G17
W15W17
G26
1 day agoE11E9E9E9E11
G19
E9E11E11E10E14
G23
E12E18
G25
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SE8SE7SE11SE10
2 days agoNW10
G16
N6NE8NE8NE6NE7NE9NE4E5E3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE8NE10NE8NE9E11E11E10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.