Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:40PM Thursday August 24, 2017 5:37 AM CDT (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:11AMMoonset 9:28PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 505 Am Cdt Thu Aug 24 2017
Today..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the morning. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then isolated showers late in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Friday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots easing to 5 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ645 Expires:201708241600;;315746 FZUS53 KMKX 241005 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 505 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-241600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 240837
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
337 am cdt Thu aug 24 2017

Short term
Today and tonight - confidence Medium to high.

Backdoor cold front will sweep south across southern wi through the
early morning. In addition, vigorous mid-level short wave over
northern wi will track southeast. These features will bring a few
showers to the CWA this morning, with isolated thunderstorms
possible over the nearshore waters due to lake induced instability.

The showers should become more isolated as they progress southeast
through the early morning as the synoptic forcing wanes. Left exit
region of upper jet moves rapidly off to the east early this morning
as upper jet weakens. Clouds associated with these features will
affect the area this morning but should transition to few-sct
cumulus later this morning and afternoon. More clouds may linger
closer to the lakeshore today due to frictional convergence due to
northeast winds but even these clouds should eventually be
overwhelmed by surge of drier air.

Clear to partly cloudy and cool tonight with warm air advection
showers remaining well west of the area. Overnight temperatures
will dip into the 40s to lower 50s with slightly warmer temps by
lake michigan. Patchy late night fog will be likely in low areas
but not ready to introduce into the forecast yet due to today's
expected drying and falling dewpoints.

Long term
Friday and Saturday - confidence Medium.

Northwest flow aloft will persist through this period until the
ridge axis moves over the region on Saturday. A weak shortwave
immediately behind the ridge axis will bring some cva and upper-
level divergence on Saturday. As you would expect, high pressure
will dominate the lower levels during this period as it gradually
pushes to the east. By Saturday afternoon, developing low
pressure over the northern plains will move northeast, bringing
some warm, moist advection to the mid levels over southern wi.

Any showers that develop from this mid upper level support will
have to fall through quite a bit of dry air closer to the surface,
so will keep just slight chance pops in our west on Saturday
afternoon.

Saturday night through Wednesday - confidence Medium.

By Saturday night, a considerable short wave will drop over the
northern plains, swinging into wisconsin on Sunday, then slowing
quite a bit as the upper low becomes cut off from the polar jet. The
cut-off low will remain in our vicinity through at least Tuesday,
perhaps longer depending on your model of choice. The previously
mentioned surface low will respond by first deepening as it moves to
our northwest through wisconsin, then filling back in as it moves
farther away from the upper low.

With more moisture in the lower levels on Saturday night, i'm
comfortable increasing pops closer to likely on Saturday night. No
instability reaches wisconsin until after the surface warm front
moves through wisconsin and daytime heating can do its thing on
Sunday. Therefore sticking with just showers until Sunday afternoon.

On and off storms should persist through early next week thanks to
the upper low sitting over the region. However, any precip will be
weakly forced since the surface low does fill in so quickly and
there is never a good shot of cold air behind the low. High pressure
should move back into the region by Wednesday, but depending on how
long that upper low sticks around, we may see some showers storms on
Wednesday as well.

Aviation(09z tafs)
Vfr conditions are expected for most of the TAF period but may be
a brief period of lower clouds closer to lake michigan this
morning as winds pick up from the northeast increasing convergence
along the lakeshore. MostlyVFR CIGS and isolated -shra
associated with a passing mid-level short wave this morning should
transition to few-sct cumulus this afternoon.

Marine
Back door cold front located between sheboygan and port
washington and will progress southward across the near shore waters
through the early morning. Mariners should expect a rapid wind
shift from the west to the north to northeast with a period of gusts
up to 20 knots possible upon frontal passage. Convergence along
this front and unstable conditions over the lake will cause isolated
showers with more numerous showers over the open waters of the lake.

An isolated thunderstorm is expected as well. The unstable
conditions and deep convective cloud depth may cause several
waterspouts to form as well near the front this morning. North to
northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots will continue through the day with
waves of 2 to 4 feet.

Beaches
Northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph will cause a moderate
swim risk at lake michigan beaches today. Breaking waves and
currents are expected, especially at beaches with a north to
northeast exposure. Swimmers will need to be cautious around
piers, breakwalls and river outlets. The moderate swim risk
conditions will continue into this evening.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Today tonight and aviation marine... mbk
Friday through Wednesday... Bsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 2 mi47 min N 11 G 13 61°F
45013 6 mi58 min NNE 16 G 19 65°F 68°F1017.4 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi57 min NE 13 G 17 63°F 1018.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi37 min W 8 G 9.9 60°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 45 mi57 min WNW 7 G 9.9 63°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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G18
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G14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi45 minNNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F53°F78%1017.6 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi62 minN 510.00 miFair55°F50°F82%1018.3 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi62 minNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F50°F88%1018.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi44 minWNW 610.00 miFair57°F54°F90%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7NW7NW9NW9NW10NW9NW11
G15
NW9N93E6SE6S9SE10SE5S7S3SW4CalmSW3NW4NW3NW6N6
1 day agoW8W9W9
G19
W13W10
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G24
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G29
NW15
G24
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N15NW11NW12NW9W6W6W7W7W7W5W5W6W7
2 days agoNW3CalmW3SW6W8NW7W7NE4E4SE11S9S8SW11S8SW9SW9SW9SW13SW11SW12SW9SW11W8W10
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.