Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 7:52PM Saturday April 29, 2017 12:36 AM CDT (05:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:37AMMoonset 11:40PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 938 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am cdt Saturday through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers late in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Saturday..Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Numerous showers through around midnight, then periods of showers after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday..Northeast wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Periods of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
LMZ645 Expires:201704291015;;426594 FZUS53 KMKX 290238 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 938 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ645-291015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 290445 aac
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
1145 pm cdt Fri apr 28 2017

Update
Aviation(06z tafs)
Rain is all but gone at this point, with just a little drizzle or
light rain hanging on in the northeast. Mainly dry weather is
thus expected for the rest of the night, with more rain moving in
later Sat morning into the afternoon.

Some lower ceilings continue to push in from the south. These are
expected to hang on across mainly the southern half of the
forecast area through at least early tonight, with ceilings
returning toVFR by early morning. More low clouds are likely to
return from the south by later Sat afternoon with the next batch
of rainfall.

Prev discussion (issued 957 pm cdt Fri apr 28 2017)
update...

a little light rain or drizzle will hang around in spots late
evening into early tonight, but otherwise expect mainly dry
weather through the remainder of the night. Skies should remain
mostly cloudy overnight given latest satellite trends. Lows seem
to be on track, so no major are changes expected there.

Marine...

northeast winds will pick up later tonight into Saturday, with
gusty winds and high waves persisting through the weekend. A small
craft advisory GOES into effect later tonight.

Prev discussion... (issued 643 pm cdt Fri apr 28 2017)
update...

rain across most of the area will wind down by mid to late
evening. May not see much at all in the far southeast forecast
area. Dry weather is then expected overnight.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

should see rain wind down by the middle of this evening, with a
few showers possibly hanging on into late evening. Dry weather is
then expected overnight, with more rain moving in later sat
morning into the afternoon.

Some lower ceilings continue to push in from the south. These are
expected to hang on across mainly the southern half of the
forecast area through at least midnight, with ceilings returning
toVFR by early morning. More low clouds are likely to return
from the south by later Sat afternoon with the next batch of
rainfall.

Prev discussion... (issued 335 pm cdt Fri apr 28 2017)
tonight and Saturday - forecast confidence... Medium.

An amplified upper trough is currently situated over the western
conus while low pressure develops at the surface over the far
southern plains.

A shortwave well ahead of the western CONUS trof and an associated
mid-level baroclinic zone are currently passing over the cwa. These
features are resulting in widespread, light radar echos. However,
dry air at the surface is resulting in a fair amount of evaporation,
and only some of the rain from these echoes is making it to the
ground. The low levels will gradually saturate this afternoon, and
by the early evening, much of the widespread virga will transition
to rain. Further complicating the picture, current radar trends show
a distinct back edge to the precip stretching from north central il
into SE ia, slowly sliding to the northeast. This may result in much
of our far southeast missing out on much of this evening's rain. The
upper and mid-level forcing will move north out of the area tonight,
bringing an end to this fist round of precip.

The western CONUS trough will continue to deepen tonight and into
tomorrow, setting up strong flow with ample divergence over the
upper midwest, while ejecting another shortwave toward the region.

Meanwhile, the surface low will strengthen and move to the
northeast. By tomorrow afternoon, the 700mb warm front will reach
into southern wisconsin, bringing in more moisture and ample low
level lift to compliment the upper level forcing. This will kick off
an extended period of rainfall as the low slowly tracks through the
region.

Saturday night through Monday - forecast confidence... Medium.

Periods of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms are likely through
this period. Precipitable water values will have increased to
around 1 inch tonight into Saturday. An additional surge in column
moisture is expected later Saturday into Saturday evening when
precipitable water further increases to around 1.25 to 1.75 inches
across most of CWA by Sunday afternoon. This is about 200-250
percent of normal for late april in southeast wi.

Second surge of moisture advection later Saturday into Saturday
evening and northward moving elevated warm front should bring a
round of showers to southern wi. Elevated instability looks minimal
so wl hold off on introducing any thunder. Best chance for thunder
looks to be Sunday aftn and night when main short wave trof gets
nudged northeast from the southern plains toward wi. Heaviest
rainfall could occur at this point when strongest synoptic lift
moves through. However some concern about heavy rainfall also
occurring Saturday aftn and evening during push of deeper column
moisture. Mean steering winds not very strong Saturday night,
mostly less than 10 knots. With saturated ground and unseasonably
high column moisture likely, QPF may be higher than currently
expected, leading toward more standing water and rapidly rising
rivers in some areas. For now, not planning on issuing a areal
flood watch but wl need to reevaluate later Sat night into early
Sunday before second round of heavier QPF were to occur later Sunday
into Sunday night.

Drier air wrapping into occluding system will diminish showers later
Sunday night into Monday, but more showers will return to portions
of southern CWA later Monday.

Extended period...

Monday night through Friday - forecast confidence... Medium.

Precipitation intensity from passing low pressure and occlusion will
begin to wind down on Monday, but may pick up again later Monday
into Monday night for a time as mid-level trof associated with low
passes slowly through wisconsin Monday night into Tuesday. Colder
air associated with occlusion will overspread southern wi during
this period with 925h temps falling to 0-2c by 12z/Tuesday. Hence
possible a little snow may mix with the occasional -ra Monday night
into early Tuesday. Otherwise, the chance for -ra wl linger into
Tuesday as upper low slowly pulls away from the western great lakes.

Weak short wave rotating around departing low may bring a few rain
or snow showers to the area Wed into Wed ngt. Temps look to remain
below normal through Wednesday with a warming trend to finish off
the work week as the upper level steering winds begin to slowly back
across the upper midwest. Potential for low chance of showers
returning late in the period but too much uncertainty to include at
this point.

Gfs 500mb standardized anomalies shows large negative anomoly of
over 100 meters centered on the midwest at 00z/Wednesday. This
large negative anomoly shifts off to the east by the weekend.

With the cooler weather expected next week, any tender vegetation
planting should hold off until next weekend at the earliest.

Nighttime temperatures likely to be in the 30s much of next week.

Marine...

low pressure will move through the region this weekend, setting the
stage for a prolonged period of strong, onshore winds. Winds will
ramp up to small craft advisory criteria beginning early Saturday
morning, and remain elevated into late Sunday night. Given the
onshore flow, waves will also be quite vigorous, reaching as high as
7 feet at times.

Hydrology...

two bouts of heavier rainfall expected across southern wisconsin
over the weekend. First will be Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night and second Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Between two
events, expected rainfall between 1.5 and 3 inches with the heaviest
in the southeast cwa. This will likely push several rivers in the
southeast to at least minor flood stage, with moderate flood stage
possible on the fox river. With saturated ground already in place,
possible a areal flood watch may be needed but want to wait until
after first bout of heavier rain occurs later Saturday into sat
night before making decision.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 4 am Saturday to 7 pm cdt Sunday for
lmz646.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Saturday to 5 am cdt Monday for
lmz643>645.

Update... Ddv
tonight/Saturday and marine... Bsh
Saturday night through Friday and hydrology... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 2 mi46 min N 4.1 G 6 44°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi56 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 1018.3 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi36 min NNE 12 G 14 43°F 1017.3 hPa (+2.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 45 mi56 min N 17 G 19 43°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi44 minN 48.00 miOvercast45°F42°F90%1017.8 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi41 minN 410.00 miOvercast43°F39°F87%1017.6 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi41 minN 510.00 miOvercast43°F41°F93%1017.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi43 minNNE 84.00 miFog/Mist42°F39°F89%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW14
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W9W10W9W6W6SW5W6SW8W53W8SE9SE9E8E8E5CalmN5N5N7N7NE6N4
1 day agoCalmNE4NE5SE6S8SW12NW10W11W16W17
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2 days agoSE11SE7S8SE8SE8S7SE9S11S11S4SW9
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SW14SW17
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SW12SW13W9SW5W8W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.