Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:28PM Friday November 16, 2018 8:53 PM CST (02:53 UTC) Moonrise 2:35PMMoonset 12:30AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 705 Pm Cst Fri Nov 16 2018
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of rain and snow through around midnight, then snow and rain after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Snow with rain likely in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot building to 3 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Saturday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots backing northwest early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Sunday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing west late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ645 Expires:201811170500;;416480 FZUS53 KMKX 170106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-170500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 170019 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
619 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018

Update
No changes to the forecast at this time. Snow will move in this
evening in western areas and reach southeast wi around midnight. The
highs precipitation totals still look to be in southwest wi.

Still watching the potential for a more moderate snow band
associated with lower level frontogenetical forcing, but that may
be southwest of wi.

Aviation(00z tafs)
Ceilings of 1000-1800 will move into southern wi this evening,
with the lowest ceilings in the southwest. Snow and ceilings of
600-800 and visby of 1-2 miles will likely impact southwest wi
around midnight through early morning. Snow is expected in
southeast wi after midnight with ceilings around 1000-1500
through mid morning. The majority of the snow fall will be from
about midnight through 6 am. Lighter snowfall may linger through
about 13 or 15z, toward eastern wi. No change to snowfall totals
at this time. Ceilings will improve Saturday morning withVFR
conditions during the day.

Prev discussion (issued 240 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018)
discussion...

tonight and Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for portions of south
central wisconsin for tonight. There is still uncertainty about
where a frontogenetically-forced band will set up. The advisory
outlines the area with the best chance for that band to develop,
given 12z model runs and forecast meso model reflectivity.

Southeast wi is not in the advisory at this time. There is not
enough support for forecasting a widespread 3 inches or more.

This will be a fairly wet snow with minimal wind during the event.

It will be falling during a low-traffic time period. Therefore,
we are trying to confine the advisory area to highest snowfall
potential.

Bottom line is that it will snow everywhere across southern wi
due to an upper shortwave trough, weak surface trough, and right
entrance region of an upper jet. We can expect a few bands of
heavier snow within areas of frontogenesis (fgen) at various
levels.

Saturday night through Sunday night - confidence... Medium
surface ridge axis slides into SRN wi Saturday night and then shifts
to the south of the area Sunday. A surface 850 trough frontal
boundary takes shape across northern wi with precipitation expected
to remain to our north this period.

Monday - confidence... Medium
surface 850 cold front swings through. At this time will go with
the blended pops which keeps pops in our far north. The NAM is
more robust while the GFS and ECMWF show nothing or just a
glancing shot in the north.

Monday night through thanksgiving day - confidence... Medium
pronounced thermal troughing will be in place at the outset of this
period. Then per the GFS a prolonged warm air advection regime
begins Tuesday and carries right on into thanksgiving day with the
more pronounced modification on Wednesday and Thursday. The ecmwf
meanwhile shows a secondary front for Tuesday night and Wednesday
that dampens the WAA regime for a time. Only our far northeast
cwa would be clipped by some small light snow chances. All in all
moderating temperatures are on the horizon though some snow to
melt along the way.

Thursday night and Friday - confidence... Low to medium
the GFS is faster than the ECMWF on next fropa.The slower ecmwf
looks more moisture laden with a richer gulf influence. In either
case airmass looks warm enough to support rain rather than snow.

Aviation(21z tafs)... Ceilings are MVFR with bases 1200-2500 ft across
southern wi and will remain there through the afternoon based on
upstream observations. Look for snow to spread into southern wi by
late evening and exit southeast wi by late Saturday morning. A
band of heavier snow is expected, but the exact location is still
uncertain. The trend is for an axis of heavier snow to be farther
south than previous forecasts. So msn might escape the heavier
snow band but jvl might end up in it. Southwest wi has the best
chance, although it's looking like northeast ia and northern il
have a decent chance too.

This will be a fairly wet snow with minimal wind during the event.

Look for winds to increase out of the north Saturday after the
snow ends.

Marine...

nearshore waters... Westerly wind gusts are winding down
this afternoon. Timing of the small craft advisory ending at 3 pm
for the southern 3 zones and 6 pm for the sheboygan zone seems
reasonable. Wind gusts will be a little higher toward the open
waters. North winds will approach small craft advisory levels on
Saturday afternoon, with west winds approaching these levels on
Sunday. West to southwest winds will again approach these levels
on Wednesday.

Open waters... Westerly gusts to around 30 knots will diminish
through the evening. Highest waves are on the eastern side of the
lake today. Look for north winds up to develop in the wake of a
surface front Saturday afternoon. Westerly wind gusts could
approach 30 kt over the north half on Sunday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until 7 am cst Saturday for wiz056-062-
063-067>069.

Lm... None.

Update... Marquardt
tonight Saturday and aviation marine... 99
Saturday night through Friday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 2 mi33 min NW 6 G 8 35°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi53 min WNW 4.1 G 21 33°F 1019.3 hPa (+2.4)
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi53 min W 6 G 7 35°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.7)
45187 36 mi33 min 37°F 43°F1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 45 mi73 min W 8.9 G 11 35°F
45186 45 mi33 min WNW 9.7 36°F 42°F1 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi61 minW 59.00 miA Few Clouds35°F27°F72%1018.7 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi68 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F24°F80%1018.3 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi68 minW 510.00 miClear28°F24°F86%1017.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi60 minW 410.00 miFair34°F27°F76%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW9SW11SW9SW10SW12
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1 day agoNW3S4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmNW4NW3CalmNW3CalmNW4CalmE6SE6SE9SE7S3SW4S5S5SW8SW7
2 days agoNW4NW5W4W4NW5NW5NW6NW4NW5NW5NW4N5NW5NE4CalmS3CalmE5SE6SE5SE3E3SE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.