Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:09PM Thursday March 23, 2017 4:59 PM CDT (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:14AMMoonset 2:26PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 323 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Tonight..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Friday..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming 10 to 20 knots early in the afternoon veering northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Numerous showers and a chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight, then periods of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Periods of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
LMZ645 Expires:201703240415;;967870 FZUS53 KMKX 232023 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 323 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ645-646-240415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 232024
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
325 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Tonight and Friday - forecast confidence Medium.

A complex situation is playing out across the northern plains. A
weak warm front is pushing northeast through iowa and illinois while
a secondary boundary stretching from north central ia into NE kansas
also pushes to the ne. Near the intersection of these two
boundaries, a small cluster of thunderstorms have developed and have
been pushing across northern iowa though the afternoon. Meanwhile, a
large dry slot has developed between the two frontal features.

High res guidance has a very poor handle on all of these features,
but given current trends and set up of the atmosphere, am expecting
the cluster of thunderstorms to gradually weaken before making it
to our western cwa. Shortly after those showers and storms arrive,
the warm front will push through the area. We can expect at least a
slight chance of precip as these features move through the area.

Guidance is in good agreement that the warm front will stall out in
central wisconsin, but there is quite a bit of noise regarding how
much moisture will remain in place to the south of the front. Most
guidance keeps much of the moisture in the vicinity of the front, so
am expecting broken to occasionally scattered clouds in the southern
half of the cwa.

The warm front will stay to the north of the CWA though the night
before it begins to slowly creep southward tomorrow. As it moves
south, am expecting cloud coverage and precip chances to increase
into the afternoon. Mu CAPE looks limited through at least the early
afternoon, so chose to leave thunder out until after 21z. Before the
front moves into our area, we can expect broken to scattered clouds
in our south along with moderately strong southerly winds. This will
result in very warm temperatures in the southern half of the cwa,
perhaps breaching 70 in some locations.

Friday night through Sunday - forecast confidence Medium to
high.

More widespread precipitation threat expected Friday night into
Saturday morning as approaching low pressure system still
undergoing minor strengthening. Impressive layer q-vector
convergence of 20 to 30 units brushes southern wi Fri night along
with layer frontogenetical forcing for a time. Short term guidance
trending slightly south with axis of heavier precipitation
during this period. Will continue highest pops Friday night
into Saturday morning, then trend slowly downward. However
occasional light rain or drizzle will likely continue into
Sunday as low pressure weakens and gets nudged eastward later in
the weekend as weak convergence and low level deformation lingers
across the area along with plentiful low level moisture. Fog threat
will increase as bounday layer winds weaken Saturday night into
Sunday. Will continue to mention thunder threat as well Friday
night when strongest synoptic scale forcing is expected along with
nearness of southward moving boundary.

Extended period
Sunday night through Thursday - forecast confidence... Medium.

Unsettled weather looks to continue through early next week.

Secondary weakening short wave over central plains trending
toward more northerly track and may bring more light rain back
to southern wi on Monday and Monday night. Cool ene surface wind
flow to continue so cooler by the lake for much of the period. More
amplified 500h pattern sets up for several days as upstream long
wave trof moves across the western conus, and resulting large scale
ridging builds across the great lakes and upper midwest. Around mid-
week, upstream trof wl get nudged eastward into the central conus,
eventually returning rain chances to the great lakes Thu into
Friday. ECMWF and canadian more bullish in spreading rain back into
srn wi on Thursday, while GFS holds off for 24 hours. Wpc blend
has more confidence in faster solution so wl spread chance pops back
in for Thursday. Warmer low level thermal structure favors rain
for the expected precipitation events during the period.

.Aviation (21z TAF update)
warm front continues to approach the area from the southwest.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along
the front, along with some MVFR to occasionally ifr cigs. As the
front passes through the region in the late afternoon and evening,
most guidance has the CIGS improving and the precipitation
dissipating. However, models do not currently have a good handle on
the complex unfolding situation, so uncertainty in the forecast is
high. It seems like a good bet the MVFR CIGS will reach at least to
msn as the front passes later this afternoon, and perhaps farther
east toward evening. Meanwhile, llws remains likely though the
overnight hours.

Marine
Winds should begin to diminish this evening as the pressure gradient
gradually weakens. Accordingly, SCA expiration looks to be on
schedule. After a brief period of weaker winds overnight and into
tomorrow morning, offshore winds will ramp back up in the early
afternoon, especially in the south. Another SCA may be needed for
this time.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz645-646.

Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt Friday for lmz643-644.

Tonight and Friday/marine... Bhs
Friday night through Thursday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 2 mi49 min SSE 18 G 20 36°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi79 min S 18 G 25 37°F 1023 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi59 min SE 17 G 19 38°F 1021.7 hPa (-3.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 45 mi79 min SSE 13 G 15 38°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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NE7
G10
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G10
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G11
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G11
SE4
G9
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G12
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G16
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N12
G16
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G24
N21
G28
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G30
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N16
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G22
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G24
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G21
NE14
G18
NE11
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NE13
G17
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NW8
G11
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G18
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G16
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G15
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NW7
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G11
SW2
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NW12
G16
NW14
G20
N11
G18
N12
G18
N11
G16
N8
G13
N9
G12
N12
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi67 minSSE 1410.00 miOvercast41°F23°F49%1022.5 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi74 minSSE 1210.00 miOvercast41°F19°F42%1022 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi74 minSE 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast41°F24°F53%1021.3 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi66 minSSE 11 G 2310.00 miOvercast39°F25°F57%1023.1 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E8E6E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4CalmSE6S7S6SE12SE14S15
G21
S18S18SE13SE13SE13
G19
S14
1 day agoNE9NE11NE11NE15
G21
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G21
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G23
N16
G25
N12
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N9N14
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N11N6NW6N8NE8NE11NE9E7NE7N6NE7
G17
6
2 days agoNE15
G20
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N10N10N10N8NW6NW5NW6NW6W5NW3NW8W10
G18
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G19
NW12NW11NW10
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NE12NE14
G24
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G22
NE13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.