Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday May 20, 2018 9:09 AM CDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:38AMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 705 Am Cdt Sun May 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..North wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Rain showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering northeast after midnight becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Monday..East wind 10 to 15 knots backing northeast early in the afternoon, then easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing north early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ645 Expires:201805201600;;249791 FZUS53 KMKX 201205 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-201600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 201116
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
616 am cdt Sun may 20 2018

Update
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing in association
with low-level warm advection and frontogenesis within an inverted
trough axis nosing into southern wisconsin. These showers will
continue through mid morning until the better support pushes off
to the east. Any thunderstorms should remain on the weak side
given the lack of any appreciable low-level jet or effective bulk
shear for them to work with. Expect a lull in precipitation for
this afternoon and evening, before shower chances return tonight.

Aviation(12z tafs)
A mix of MVFR and ifr ceilings and visibilities are expected
through this morning with scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms. A gradual improvement in flight conditions toVFR
is then expected through the afternoon. Brisk NE winds will gust
up to 25 knots this morning by the lake (affecting mke and enw in
particular), before decreasing this afternoon. Ceilings may begin
to lower into the MVFR range (possibly lower) later tonight with
scattered showers possible.

Prev discussion (issued 312 am cdt Sun may 20 2018)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

A mid-level shortwave vorticity maxima will progress from the mid
missouri valley this morning into the upper mississippi valley by
tonight. Rain showers are expected this morning, with lift
provided by coupled cyclonic vorticity advection and jet-level
divergence atop the low-level baroclinic zone. A rumble of
thunder is possible, given MUCAPE present via rap analysis and
present on area forecast soundings. Look for a break in the
precipitation during the late morning and into the afternoon, as
low-level moisture wanes and the upper support departs. Modest
low-level warm and moist advection returns tonight as some weak
perturbations ripple through the mid-level flow. While forcing for
ascent is rather weak, rain showers are possible overnight, with
the greatest chances towards the illinois border. Rain amounts
should generally be a quarter of an inch or less. With the surface
front remaining to our south, look for cool northeasterly flow
and high temperatures struggling to reach 60 west of madison.

Areas near the lake may have a tough time cracking the 50 degree
mark.

Long term...

forecast confidence is medium.

A split flow upper level pattern will persist across the conus
much of the week. As a result, the flow aloft will be a bit
sluggish, with bouts of unsettled weather bookending a period of
quiet conditions.

A weak disturbance will slowly move through the region on Monday
bringing a chance of showers that will persist into Monday night.

Temperatures will be cooler than average under a mainly cloudy
sky.

A brief period of upper level ridging builds over the area on
Tuesday. Southerly winds will initiate a warming trend that looks
to persist through the remainder of the week. An upper low that
will slowly eject out of the southwest conus, should weaken a bit
as it approaches from the west as it encounters confluent flow.

There will be a few pieces of energy to break off from this low
and provide intermittent (nebulous) rain chances from Wednesday
onward. Overall the pop forecast is a bit pessimistic, but timing
individual waves at this juncture is a futile exercise.

Bottom line for Tuesday onward is at above average temperatures
(remaining cooler near the lake), and chances for rain beginning
Wednesday and continuing in an off again on again fashion as we
head into the first part of next weekend.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

a mix of MVFR and ifr ceilings and visibilities are expected
through this morning with scattered rain showers. A gradual
improvement in flight conditions toVFR is then expected through
the afternoon. Brisk NE winds will gust up to 25 knots this
morning, before decreasing this afternoon. Ceilings may begin to
lower into the MVFR range once again later tonight with scattered
showers possible.

Marine...

brisk NE winds will gust up to 25 mph this morning before easing
somewhat this afternoon. This will allow high waves up to 5 feet
to build early this morning and persist until early Sunday
evening. A small craft advisory is in effect during this time.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm cdt this evening for lmz645-646.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for lmz643-
644.

Update... Spm
today tonight and aviation marine... Spm
Monday through Saturday... Gagan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 2 mi50 min NNE 20 G 24 42°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi90 min NNE 8.9 G 15 45°F 1023.7 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi70 min 43°F 1022 hPa (+2.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 45 mi50 min NNE 22 43°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi78 minNNE 15 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F41°F86%1022.4 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi85 minNNE 16 G 2210.00 miOvercast45°F37°F76%1022.7 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi85 minNE 1510.00 miOvercast43°F39°F87%1022 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi77 minNNE 18 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy43°F39°F89%1022.2 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7N4CalmCalmN3E3E5SE4SE6SE4SE3E4NE7NE5N11NE11
G17
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1 day agoNE9NE12NE13NE11N16N18
G24
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N104NE7NE5CalmNE3NE5NE5NE7NE9NE6N6N6N4N5NE5
2 days agoN16
G27
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G26
N13
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N20
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G30
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NE66NE5NE4NE6NE6NE6NE3NE6NE6NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.