Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:07PM Friday March 22, 2019 7:41 PM CDT (00:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 8:06AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 706 Pm Cdt Fri Mar 22 2019
Tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Saturday..West wind 5 knots becoming southwest late in the morning, then backing south 5 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest after midnight, then easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing east late in the afternoon. Chance of showers through the day. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ645 Expires:201903230400;;771083 FZUS53 KMKX 230006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-230400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 222331
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
631 pm cdt Fri mar 22 2019

Update High pressure over the WRN great lakes will gradually
move sewd into the ohio river valley by 00z sun. Clear skies will
continue while lgt swly winds will develop on Sat over SRN wi as
the high shifts south. The lake breeze will gradually move wwd
through the lake counties during the afternoon. Mild temps in the
50s are expected inland.

Aviation(00z tafs) Vfr conditions tnt-sat eve.

Prev discussion (issued 314 pm cdt Fri mar 22 2019)
short term...

tonight and tomorrow... Forecast confidence is high...

high pressure will build into the area this evening and tonight.

Winds will diminish with sunset, with temperatures falling into
the 20s overnight under clear skies.

Saturday should be a very nice day, with sunny skies and
temperatures for much of the area in the low to mid 50s. Locations
closer to lake michigan can expect cooler readings, generally low
to mid 40s.

Long term...

Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A slow-moving closed upper low will swing from the plains into the
midwest on Sunday and gradually become absorbed into the main upper
trough stationed over eastern canada. Low to mid level lift ahead of
this feature will bring a decent chance for light rain to southern
wisconsin early Sunday morning. Specifically, the strongest mid
level lift will occur late Saturday night and it's not until the
850mb frontogenesis kicks in early Sunday morning when the column
will be saturated enough to support pockets of rain reaching the
ground. The better, deeper forcing of 925-850mb frontogenesis and
vorticity advection will be mainly south of the wi il border during
the day Sunday.

The precip into southern wi will be trying to overcome layers of dry
air, both in the lowest level at the onset and in the mid levels as
the upper low weakens and exits Sunday night. The highest pops are
confined to the area south of i-94 where there should be deep enough
saturation and sufficient overall forcing to support at least
scattered showers during the day Sunday.

A cold front will slide southward Sunday night in the wake of the
departing low. The dry air will cut off any lingering showers.

Temperatures will be dropping overnight, so there is a small chance
for some flurries across southern wi before the dry air completely
moves in. No accumulation expected.

Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is high.

Another dry stretch of weather is expected with high pressure
drifting across the great lakes. Temperatures will be in the 40s,
cooler near the lake, until Wednesday. Return flow around the high
will bring inland areas back into the lower 50s.

Wednesday night through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

We will transition into a little pattern switch late in the week
when an upper trough approaches from the west. Warm air advection
will begin Wednesday night and potentially bring some light showers
to southern wi. We could see hit or miss showers on Thursday, but
the better chance for showers and potentially thunderstorms will be
Thursday night and Friday as a cold front moves through the area.

Depending on how amplified that upper low becomes, we could see some
light snow on the back side over the weekend. Not a lot of
confidence in which pattern will "win" yet.

Aviation(21z TAF update)...

vfr conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Scattered
stratocu based between about 3kft and 4kft will remain across
eastern wisconsin this afternoon, but should dissipate with
sunset. Winds will be gusty from the north this afternoon, before
diminishing tonight. Light and variable winds are expected early
on Saturday, before becoming light from the southwest later in the
day.

Marine...

gusty winds continue across the lake this afternoon. The threat
for gales over the open waters has largely diminished, so will
allow the gale warning to expire just a few hours early this
afternoon. The small craft advisory will continue into early
evening, which seems reasonable considering the continued
gustiness and elevated waves.

Lighter winds are expected on Saturday and early Sunday as high
pressure moves through the area. Winds then become gusty from the
north Sunday night as a front moves through the area. A period of
gales is possible Sunday night into Monday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz643>646.

Update... Gehring
tonight Saturday and aviation marine... Boxell
Saturday night through Friday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 2 mi31 min 34°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi61 min NE 8 G 9.9 35°F 1024.4 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi41 min NNE 8.9 G 11 34°F 1023.4 hPa (+1.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 45 mi61 min NE 9.9 G 12 34°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi49 minNNE 710.00 miFair34°F24°F67%1024.2 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi56 minE 310.00 miClear36°F21°F56%1023.7 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi56 minENE 410.00 miClear37°F21°F52%1023 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi48 minNNE 510.00 miFair33°F24°F70%1024.5 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W8W10NW15
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NE15NE10NE7NE9NE7
1 day agoS4W4NW7NW7NW10NW9NW7N7N8N10N12
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2 days agoSW4SW4S6SW7SW6SW5SW4SW7SW6S6SW7SW9SW8SW9SW8SW11SW11SW10S10SW8SW10SW7SW7SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.