Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Francis, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:27PM Saturday November 17, 2018 9:55 PM CST (03:55 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 1:30AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 905 Pm Cst Sat Nov 17 2018
Rest of tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots backing northwest early in the morning. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots backing southwest after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering west late in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ645 Expires:201811181100;;470252 FZUS53 KMKX 180306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-181100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Francis, WI
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location: 43.01, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 180346
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
946 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018

Update Expect isolated rain and snow showers to develop over
the open waters of lake michigan, but these should remain well
east of the shore. Weakening northeast winds in the low levels
will turn to the west to northwest overnight, limiting these
isolated showers westward movement. Drier air surge slowly
eroding lower clouds across southern areas, and high clouds should
thin overnight into early Sunday. Temperatures look on track at
this point.

Marine
Nearshore... Northeast winds over the southern zones are expected
to gradually turn to the north to northwest overnight as high
pressure ridge continues to slowly approach from the west.

Possible a few lake effect rain and snow showers will develop over
mid-lake due to weak low level convergence. These should remain
well east of the near shore waters.

Open waters... Weak mid-lake convergence should aid in producing
isolated rain and snow showers over the south open waters during
the night into early Sunday. Otherwise, northeast winds over most
of the southern part of the lake should gradually turn to the
northwest late tonight into Sunday morning. A tightening pressure
gradient to the north of a high pressure ridge will result in
gusty southwest winds developing over the northern open waters
late tonight into Sunday. Gusts to 30 knots are expected over the
north open waters.

Prev discussion (issued 552 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018)
update... Surge of drier air and increasing subsidence from the
northwest and shifting southward baroclinic zone across the
central ms valley should result in gradual thinning of clouds
across southern wi overnight. However low level winds remain
northeast in southeast wisconsin until after midnight. Hence low
clouds will likely hang on a bit in the area from kenosha to
milwaukee into the early morning before clearing. Delta-t an
impressive 15 degrees but low levels fairly dry so no lake effect
precipitation expected. However, latest experimental hrrr
developing some light snow showers south of milwaukee after 12z
Sunday. By this time, expect low level flow to be west-northwest
or light and variable. Hence wl continue dry forecast for now in
the far southeast early Sunday. Operational hrrr keeps light snow
showers well offshore late tonight and Sunday morning.

Northern areas have best chance of overnight clearing, so wl need
to watch temperatures closely in these areas.

Aviation(00z tafs)... A gradual improvement is expected through
06z across southern CWA where MVFR ceilings linger. Drier air push
and increasing subsidence should result in the thinning trend.

Low clouds will likely hang on longer in southeast wi, closer to
lake michigan. Low level winds will remain from the northeast
until later tonight. This will likely cause fluctuating ceilings
between lowerVFR and MVFR in these areas until late tonight or
early Sunday. Not enough low level humidity to cause any
precipitation issues.

Prev discussion... (issued 250 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018)
discussion...

tonight and Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

Cloud cover is our main concern for the overnight hours. We are
expecting skies to clear toward central wi, so that area will
radiate out and temps should drop into the lower to mid teens.

Elsewhere, low clouds will be slower to clear. 1000-850mb winds
will be out of the northeast over far southeast wi through the
evening hours. That component off the lake will keep those low
clouds hanging around longest in that area. High clouds streaming
across far southern wi will also play a factor in our clearing
and the resultant temps. Min temps should only get into the lower
20s in southeast wi.

Sunday will be sunny with light westerly winds as high pressure
slides into the central plains. High temps will be similar to
today's, in the lower to mid 30s.

Monday and Monday night - confidence... Medium
broad mid level trough will be swinging through western great lakes
with embedded vorticity maxima. Surface 850 fronts will aid in lower
level forcing as well. A very light precipitation event here. The
ecmwf is dry in southern wi for the entire period while the GFS nam
show some minor QPF in the afternoon evening. Thicknesses 850 temps
overall support this would be snow showers though boundary level may
warm sufficiently for some rain mixed in for a time as well. With
the passage of the front a cold northerly flow takes hold with the
likelihood of offshore lake effect snow showers. Trajectories will
be key on whether any of these manage to brush our eastern areas.

Tuesday and Tuesday night - confidence... Medium
warm air advection gets underway with lingering influence of low
level thermal trough getting shunted to the east. Another system
will be off to our northwest throughout the day and then head into
southern wi for the evening. Consensus of model solutions suggest
any light QPF with this system would affect mainly our northeast cwa
in the form of some snow showers.

Wednesday through Thursday night - confidence... Medium
surface high builds in Wednesday with WAA set to arrive for thanksgiving
day and continue right into Friday. So mild temps are on the way.

Southwest winds and a broad low level anticyclonic curvature will
keep things on the dry side.

Friday and Saturday - confidence... Medium
the next decent chance of some precipitation arrives this period as
mid level flow shifts southwest and energy starts to approach from
upstream trough. The ECMWF is the slowest and would keep Friday on
the dry side while the gem and GFS bring rain into the area before
the day is out. Best model consensus for rain would be on Friday
night, though the ECMWF is still quite slow on bringing precip in.

Given the slower nature of the ECMWF and back edge of quicker
gfs gem, will hang on to some rain chances for Saturday. No real big
push of cold air in the wake of this system.

Aviation(21z tafs)... Ceilings are still hovering between 2000 and
4000 ft this afternoon, although there are lower ceilings around 1500
ft near the il border and south. Lower clouds should linger in southeast
wi due to a northeast component to the wind off the lake through late
evening. Elsewhere, clouds will clear from north to south, although
high clouds streaming over the area will likely delay the full
clearing. Expect quiet weather and sunny skies on Sunday.

Marine...

nearshore... Northwest winds may reach small craft advisory
criteria Tuesday night. Southerly winds may reach that level
Thursday night through Friday.

Open lake... A weak clipper crossing ontario will bring gusty
westerly winds up to 25 or 30 kt over the north half of lake
michigan on Sunday. The next breezy period will be Tuesday night
with northwesterly winds in the wake of another clipper. Southerly
wind gusts could approach gale force toward the north half
Thursday night through Friday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... mbk
tonight Sunday and aviation marine... mbk
Sunday night through Saturday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 2 mi46 min NW 5.1 G 7 30°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi76 min NW 5.1 G 7 29°F 1028.8 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 29 mi56 min NNE 9.9 G 12 34°F 1027.1 hPa (+0.3)
45187 36 mi36 min 36°F 42°F2 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 45 mi76 min NNW 5.1 G 12 32°F
45186 45 mi36 min NNE 16 36°F 43°F2 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI4 mi64 minN 710.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F16°F54%1028.4 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI12 mi61 minN 410.00 miPartly Cloudy28°F15°F59%1028.1 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI17 mi71 minN 010.00 miOvercast25°F15°F69%1027.8 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI18 mi63 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast33°F21°F64%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW5NW6N6CalmW4W3NW4NW6N7NW7N8N6N7N8NE9N6N9N7N6N7N7N6N7
1 day agoSW9SW11SW9SW10SW12
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2 days agoS4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmNW4NW3CalmNW3CalmNW4CalmE6SE6SE9SE7S3SW4S5S5SW8SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.