Thursday, August17, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 7:48PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:58 AM EDT (05:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:28AMMoonset 4:32PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, VT
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location: 43.02, -72.88     debug

Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 170526
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
126 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

With high pressure nearby, dry and comfortable weather is expected
today. It will turn more humid tonight thanks to a southerly flow
ahead of an approaching frontal system, which will bring widespread
showers and possible thunderstorms to the region for late tonight
into Friday. The weather will be clearing out over the weekend with
temperatures close to normal.

Near term through today
As of 107 am edt... Surface high pressure is located over
western new york and it continues to slowly slide eastward
towards our area. IR satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies
over the area, with just a few thin passing cirrus clouds

With the mainly clear skies and calm winds, good radiational
cooling will occur overnight. The boundary layer isn't as moist
as last night, so widespread fog stratus isn't expected, but
some patchy fog will be possible by late in the overnight hours,
mainly for near over bodies of water. Overnight lows look to be
in the 50s for most locations (some 40s possible for the

During the day today, high pressure will continue to move across
the area and shift southeast of the region. It will continue to
be dry today with just some passing cirrus clouds. Mid and high
level clouds will eventually thicken from west to east by late
this afternoon into this evening, as the next system starts to
approach from the great lakes.

Highs today will range from the mid 70s in the high terrain to
the low 80s in southern valley areas. Dewpoints will be
comfortable for august, with readings mainly in the 50s.

Short term tonight through Friday night
Clouds begin increasing Thursday night as the next storm system
approaches from the great lakes. A developing southerly wind
will allow moisture, and higher dewpoints, to return to the
region. Rain chances will also increase from the south and west
as a warm frontal boundary moves closer to the region. With the
increasing clouds precip chances, temperatures will be fairly
mild, only falling into the upper 50s lower 60s.

Rain, with potential thunderstorms, are expected on
Friday Friday night as the warm front lifts across the area and
the cold front approaches from the west. Although the best upper
level dynamics will remain north west of the area, enough
forcing will be in place, as the surface cold front will be
crossing during the late evening into the overnight hours. The
latest NAM suggests that instability doesn't increase until
closer to 21z fri-00z Sat with the cold frontal passage. Models
indicate that the cold frontal passage is later than in previous
runs and this timing will ultimately determine how much
instability will be available for thunderstorms to develop. At
this point, do not think thunderstorms will be widespread but
did include slight chance thunder throughout the evening and
overnight periods. The main issue may be heavy rainfall, as pwat
values will be around 2 inches and any shower storm may produce
very heavy rainfall within a short period of time. The latest
gefs shows that the pwats are 2 to 3 standard deviations above
normal. There should be enough flow to keep things moving, so
flash flooding probably won't be a concern, but urban low
lying poor drainage flooding is certainly possible.

The storm's cold front should be crossing at sometime late Friday
evening into Friday night, as pops should lower and skies
should begin to clear throughout the day Saturday. Lows look to
fall into the 60s.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Gradually improving conditions Saturday into Saturday night as
occluded system moves off to our east. Expecting lingering showers
Saturday as upper level short wave trough associated with system
swings through during the day. Any threat for thunder should be
limited to mainly east of the hudson river valley. The GFS is a bit
more amplified and slower with upper trough than the ecmwf.

Guidance is in general agreement the upper flow becomes flat nearly
zonal as we head into next week with ridging building in. Looking at
fair and dry weather for Saturday night through Monday night.

Unsettled weather will return as we head into mid week as a trough
develops over the great lakes region and northeast Tuesday with an
upper low expected to form over eastern canada Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday with the development of a
prefrontal trough and ahead of the system's cold front Wednesday.

Saturday will be warm and muggy with dew points expected to mainly
in the 60s with seasonable readings and less humid conditions for
Sunday. Above normal temperatures are expected Monday and more so
Tuesday ahead of the approaching cold front along with rising dew
points. Looking at highs around 10 degrees above normal Tuesday in
the 80s. After a muggy, warm night temperatures Wednesday are
expected to be cool to normal.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
High pressure will continue to build into the region at all
levels of the atmosphere through today. Some patchy fog is
possible at kgfl, kpou and kpsf through daybreak as winds
are nearly calm with clear skies; have intervals of bcfg MVFR
conditions for these sites late at night. Have indicated a
period of mifg at kalb. Any fog should burn off quickly after

Thin high clouds are expected to stream in through the day
during the afternoon and especially late in the day.

Winds light variable to calm through daybreak. A light southeast
to southwest flow will develop by mid morning morning and
persist through the day at 6 kt or less and could be variable in


Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Dry weather is expected tonight and tomorrow, before a
widespread wetting rainfall looks to occur for Friday. Dew
formation is expected tonight with some patchy fog as well.

Rh values will fall to the 35 to 50 percent tomorrow afternoon,
but remain in the 65 to 85 percent range on Friday. Rh values
are expected to recover to 80 to 100 percent both tonight and
Thursday night. NW winds will be 5 to 10 mph for the remainder
of the evening before becoming light and variable overnight and
into Thursday.

Dry weather is expected today into this evening, but a frontal
system will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region
between late tonight and late Friday night. With dewpoints
reaching into the upper 60s to lower 70s and pwats reaching
around 2 inches, locally heavy downpours will be possible.

Based on the latest model guidance, the chance for the heaviest
rainfall is on Friday afternoon and evening, just ahead of the
approaching cold front. Although flash flooding is not
anticipated due to stronger winds aloft (which should keep heavy
rainfall moving quickly), showers thunderstorms will be capable
of producing heavy downpours within a short period of time,
which may lead to minor flooding of poor drainage, urban and low
lying areas. Main stem rivers may seem some minor rises, but no
river flooding is expected with this rainfall. Less humid air
will start to work its way into the region for late Friday
night. Total QPF amounts will be variable depending on exactly
where showers thunderstorms track. While most areas should see
at least a half inch of rain, its possible that some point locations
may see upwards of an inch or two.

Although a lingering light rain shower or two cannot be ruled
out for Saturday, drier weather should return for Sunday into

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Technicians will continue to work on the kenx radar Thursday and
hope to have the radar back in service in the afternoon.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Frugis
short term... Frugis jvm
long term... Iaa
aviation... Nas
fire weather... Frugis jvm
hydrology... Frugis jvm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 88 mi89 min 68°F 1017 hPa62°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT21 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair53°F51°F93%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from DDH (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3N45W6NW7N7N634NW5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago3CalmCalmCalm4CalmCalmCalm4S7S4CalmS4SW4S5S8S5CalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3Calm33W5S4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 01:24 AM EDT     5.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:25 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 PM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:15 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:47 PM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.