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FXUS61 KALY 280024 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 824 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring mostly cloudy skies with some passing showers tonight through Sunday night, along with a few rumbles of thunder. The front stalls south of the region Monday, before returning back northward Monday night through Tuesday bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will vary depending on the frontal location, with unseasonable warmth on the south side of the front, and more seasonable temperatures near and north of the boundary.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 8PM EDT, light showers are tracking over eastern NY and western New England this evening but with plenty of dry air still in the low-levels (as seen on the 00 UTC ALY sounding), precipitation has remained very light with amounts ranging from trace up to a few hundredths. A steadier batch of rain associated with the leading edge of the stronger low to mid-level jet is already in the Mohawk Valley and will be tracking eastward through our area until about 10PM to 1AM. After this batch, however, POPs trend downwards through the rest of the night. A few isolated to widely scattered showers remain possible through sunrise and we will continue to monitor the potential for any isolated thunderstorm given incoming weak elevated instability as the warm sector overspreads the region. However, did not include thunder in the latest forecast update given overall low confidence.

Given the low-level dry air and overall light amount of precipitation expected, we lowered QPF amounts and POPs showing mainly just a few hundredths up to a tenth or so total precip through 12 UTC with mainly high chance and low end likely POPs through Midnight trending to chance and even slight chance thereafter. Cloudy skies will keep temperatures rather mild tonight in the 40s and current forecast temperatures are on track.

Previous discussion [330pm EDT]...Band of light showers associated with warm front aloft continues to slowly progress eastward across central/western NYS. Rainfall rates are generally less than 0.05 inches/hour. This initial band may tend to weaken/decrease in coverage as it tracks farther east through sunset, producing spotty light showers/sprinkles for areas mainly west of the Hudson River.

Additional showers, currently forming across western NYS are then expected to track eastward across the region later this evening and overnight. As the low level jet strengthens, these showers may tend to hold together better, moving across the region from west to east between roughly 10 PM and 3 AM tonight.
Latest CAMS suggest some weak elevated instability develops across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley after midnight, so a few rumbles of thunder will be possible, possibly extending as far east as the Capital/Saratoga region and Schoharie Valley/eastern Catskills prior to daybreak.

Gusty south/southeast winds will continue through sunset, especially at the leading edge of the rain showers, with some gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Winds may then weaken once the boundary layer moistens from the showers.

Low temperatures mainly in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Early morning showers are expected, especially near and south of I-90, before some breaks in the clouds develop by mid to late morning. Additional showers are then expected to develop close to, or just south of the I-90 corridor during the afternoon hours. Shower coverage should remain scattered, however it is possible that multiple rounds of showers affect some of these areas. Some elevated instability will also remain for areas near and south of I-90, so will keep mention of isolated thunderstorms, with best chances across the western Mohawk Valley extending into Schoharie County and the SE Catskills.
Low confidence on Sunday high temperatures, as any areas of clouds and showers will limit warming potential, despite increasingly warm air aloft. Have sided with a slightly cooler blend of MAV/MET MOS across the region for max temps, with 65-70 for most areas except warmer across the mid Hudson Valley.
However, should there be less shower coverage, much warmer max temps are possible.

Cold front approaching from the north should bring additional scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms for Sunday night. This front should settle southward into the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT region by Monday afternoon. Mid level ridging sharpens over the region with slightly drier air aloft building overhead. This should decrease shower coverage on Monday, with only isolated coverage expected across the SE Catskills/Mohawk Valley region closer to the low level frontal boundary. Cooler air behind this front should prevent temps from warming much for areas near and especially north of I-90, with mainly 60s expected, with some possibility for 50s depending on cloud cover. Areas near and especially south of the boundary should reach the 70s, with some possibility for temps approaching 80 in the mid Hudson Valley.

Boundary should then begin shifting back northward Monday night as mid level ridge axis flattens and shifts east of the region.
This should allow for some showers/thunderstorms to move across the region, favoring areas north of I-90 later at night where overall mid level forcing appears greatest. Temperatures should fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weakening cold front approaches from the west Tuesday, while retreating warm front slows down and potentially stalls across or just east of the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms should become numerous Tuesday afternoon and night. Some showers could linger into Wednesday along with low clouds as frontal boundary weakens across the region. High temps Tuesday mainly in the 60s to lower 70s, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Wednesday high temps should reach 65-70 in valley areas, and 60-65 across higher terrain areas, assuming some breaks of sun develop late in the day. Should clouds and any showers persist longer, cooler temps would prevail.

Models have trended slower with late week system, with stronger ridging building off the eastern seaboard. Current forecast still indicates chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday, however if front continues to slow down, coverage of showers could be much less, along with much warmer temps for Thu-Fri. Current forecast has highs in the 70s for most areas Thu-Fri, and 60s for Saturday, however much warmer max temps are possible during this period should stronger east coast ridging/slower frontal system occur.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Showers have overspread the terminals early this evening but has been light enough that VFR ceilings and visibility have been maintained at all terminals. A steadier batch of rain mainly 01 to 04 UTC will likely result in low end VFR ceilings with the steady rain ending from west to east by 05 - 07 UTC. MVFR ceilings look to develop by 04 - 09 UTC, mainly at GFL and PSF with a few isolated showers returning, mainly at ALB and PSF, during the pre-dawn hours (09 - 13 UTC) which may temporarily lead to MVFR ceilings. A dry break then ensues by 12/13 UTC through 20 UTC with MVFR ceilings gradually improving to VFR by the 15 - 17 UTC.

Additional showers (potentially a rumble of thunder) are then expected late in the TAF period, mainly 20 UTC SUN - 00 UTC MON. Did not have enough confidence to include thunderstorms but we will continue to monitor the potential.

South to southeast winds will remain sustained at 10-15KT with some gusts 20 - 25 KT through 03 - 05 UTC before winds weaken a bit, becoming sustained around 7 - 12kts. The winds increase from the south to southwest at 5-10 KT by 15 - 18 UTC and remain near 5-10kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Scattered SHRA
TSRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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