Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:12PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 3:22 PM EDT (19:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:08PMMoonset 7:36AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, VT
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location: 43.02, -72.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 211719
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
119 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
Cool and windy conditions expected today, as low pressure
tracks eastward across the canadian maritimes and high pressure
gradually builds east through the great lakes region. The high
will move into our region tonight through Wednesday, providing
dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The next chance of
widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives late Thursday into
Thursday night, as a strong disturbance approaches from the
great lakes.

Near term through tonight
As of 115 pm edt, breezy, cool and dry conditions prevail this
afternoon with temperatures currently in the 50s to lower 60s.

Wind gusts have been ranging from 20 to 40 mph, with the
stronger gusts across the mohawk valley into the capital
district. South of albany, skies are generally clear but
locations north of albany should see decreasing clouds through
the remainder of the day. So have freshened up the hourly temps
and sky cover based on recent trends. Further details regarding
the near term forecast follow...

prev disc...

as of 1005 am edt... Upper level trough is centered over
northern new england. Cold advection remains in place over the
region this morning in the wake of the departing storm system.

Although any light rain showers are north of the region over the
high peaks of the adirondacks, there continues to plenty of
stratocu clouds within the northwest flow, especially for
northern and high terrain areas. As the upper level trough
continues to depart, cloud coverage will gradually decrease
through the day, with increasing amounts of sunshine this
afternoon.

Winds will be most notable today, as there will be a decent
pressure gradient between a strong low in the canadian maritimes
and high pressure over the upper central great lakes. There
have already been gusts between 25-35 mph in favored areas in
nw flow such as the mohawk valley, capital district, taconics
and berkshires at times. Once better mixing commences by this
afternoon, potential for stronger wind gusts in the 30-40 mph
is expected. Forecast soundings show mixing potential to around
750-700 mb today, with winds upward of 40 kt in this layer.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than the past few days in
the cold advection regime. Highs will be a few degrees below
normal in most areas this afternoon, with temps ranging from the
low 50s over the high terrain to the mid 60s in the mid hudson
valley.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
It will still be breezy this evening as the pressure gradient
remains intact, although speeds should start to gradually
decrease after sunset. Winds will become lighter after midnight,
as high pressure builds in from the west. It will be a cool
night, especially if winds diminish fast enough before sunrise.

Lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region. Some
patchy frost may develop across parts of the adirondacks and
southern greens, but a breeze most of the night and marginal
temperatures should preclude any widespread frost formation.

Wednesday looks to be a very pleasant day across the region
with surface high pressure in place. Upper level heights will
also be rising, so clouds should be scarce most of the day.

Temperatures will warm compared to Tuesday, and will be very
close to normal.

Clouds will increase Wednesday night associated with a weak
disturbance as the upper ridge starts to flatten out. Limited
forcing and moisture should only result in isolated or widely
scattered showers. Better chances will be south west of albany,
but will only mention low chance pops even in these areas.

The next period of active weather looks to arrive Thursday
afternoon or evening, as a strong upper level disturbance
approaches from the great lakes region. The energy from this
system is actually originating in the southern plains, where
severe weather has been occurring. So there is a strong
convective footprint associated with this system. Model guidance
differs with timing, as the GFS is on the fast side of the
envelope and the NAM slower. Timing could matter for
strength coverage depending on when convection moves into the
area. Models are indicating at least moderate CAPE developing
across central ny Thursday afternoon, with an instability
gradient farther east in our area. Storms could weaken in our
area, but may be borderline strong severe as they approach from
central ny. 0-6 km shear impressive > 50 kt, so given sufficient
buoyancy mode of convection could be supercells. Will mention
potential for severe storms from the hudson valley westward in
the hwo, which is where the storm prediction center has issued a
slight risk outlook.

Long term Friday through Monday
High pressure builds into our region Friday resulting in mainly
dry weather. Highs Friday in the upper 60s to lower 70s but
lower to mid 60s higher terrain.

Northern stream upper energy and an associated cold front
affect our region Saturday and Saturday night with showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 70s
but mid to upper 60s higher terrain.

There are disagreements in sources of guidance ensembles as to
the timing of stronger upper energy and low level forcing Sunday
through Monday. Keeping just isolated showers Sunday but Sunday
could be mainly dry with weak high pressure before the leading
edge of the moisture, low level forcing and upper dynamics
approach. Highs Sunday in the mid 70s to near 80 but near 70
higher terrain.

The strongest upper dynamics and low level forcing could be
Monday with more isolated to scattered showers. The origins from
canada suggest a bit less deep moisture and just the isolated
to scattered showers. Highs Monday solidly in the 70s but mid to
upper 60s higher terrain.

Aviation 17z Tuesday through Saturday
Flying conditions areVFR over the region. In the wake of a
departing upper level trough, some lingering sct-bkn stratocu clouds
continue around 4-5 kft, but these will continue to decrease in
coverage through the rest of the day as the trough moves away. Skies
look to be clear overnight with continuedVFR conditions. Just some
thin cirrus is expected for during the day on Wednesday.

Winds have been gusty today, with some gusts over 25 kts at times. W-
nw winds will continue to be 10 to 20 kts through the rest of the
day, with some gusts up to 30 kts (especially for kalb kpsf). These
winds look to diminish this evening as the pressure gradient
relaxes, with NW winds generally under 10 kts for late this evening
and becoming fairly light for after midnight. During the day on
Wednesday, northerly winds are expected to be around 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Friday: low operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: low operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Fire weather
Northwest winds will gust between 30 and 40 mph today...

cool and windy conditions expected today, as low pressure
tracks eastward across the canadian maritimes and high pressure
gradually builds east through the great lakes region. The high
will move into our region tonight through Wednesday, providing
dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The next chance of
widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives late Thursday into
Thursday night, as a strong disturbance approaches from the
great lakes.

Relative humidity values will drop to minimum values of between
35 and 45 percent this afternoon, increasing to maximum values
of around 70 to 90 percent tonight. Minimum rh values will be
around 30 to 40 percent Wednesday afternoon.

Winds today will be northwest around 15 to 25 mph, with gusts
of 30 to 40 mph, decreasing to around 5 to 15 mph late tonight.

Winds on Wednesday will be north-northwest between 5 and 10 mph.

Hydrology
Except for a few light showers across the western adirondacks
this morning, dry weather will prevail through Wednesday as high
pressure gradually builds back into the region. Widely
scattered light showers are possible late Wednesday night mainly
south and west of albany, as a weak disturbance moves through.

The next chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms is
expected late Thursday into Thursday night, as a stronger
disturbance approaches from the great lakes. While brief
downpours are possible within any thunderstorms, the rainfall is
not expected to be hydrologically significant.

Additional showers and some thunderstorms will be possible
again over the upcoming weekend.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS web
page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Jpv
near term... Frugis jpv jlv
short term... Jpv
long term... Nas
aviation... Frugis
fire weather... Jpv
hydrology... Jpv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT21 mi28 minNW 17 G 2410.00 miLight Rain61°F36°F39%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from DDH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11
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S93CalmS8SW9
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NW56S6SW7S5SW9W8SW6SW7SW12
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2 days agoCalmNW43CalmCalmS3CalmS6CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5SW3S4S3Calm5SW85SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Tue -- 01:52 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:42 AM EDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:30 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.60.20.92.43.94.95.65.85.242.920.9-0-012.33.44.14.54.23.32.5

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Tue -- 01:42 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:34 AM EDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.50.31.12.645.15.75.853.92.81.80.7-0.10.11.22.53.54.24.54.13.22.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.