Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Huron, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:26PM Saturday August 19, 2017 2:29 PM EDT (18:29 UTC) Moonrise 3:07AMMoonset 6:03PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 941 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the southwest in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:201708192115;;623898 FZUS53 KDTX 191341 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 941 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-192115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Huron, MI
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location: 43.04, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191653
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1253 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

Aviation
Scattered to brokenVFR diurnal cumulus embedded within northwest
flow best characterizes the weather through the balance of the
daylight hours. Winds will calm out tonight under clear skies.

Southwest flow will emerge during the surface layer mixing cycle
late Sunday morning.

For dtw... Scattered to broken clouds at or below 5kft is expected
through the balance of the afternoon hours. Varying winds in the 290-
320 window with speeds around 10kts will pose some challenges for
air traffic flow direction into the air field.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs AOB 5kft through 22z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 347 am edt Sat aug 19 2017
discussion...

an upper level trough passing through lower michigan will keep a
chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast
during the morning. This will be mainly supported by a corridor of
weak DCVA from south to north over the area downstream of the upper
level trough axis. Some late developing nocturnal elevated
instability will also contribute to forcing but will be limited by
underwhelming moisture transport. Model analysis fields indicate a
lack of backed flow in the mid levels compared to the otherwise
strong appearance of the wave in satellite imagery so far since
midnight. The relatively weak mid level theta-e advection is not
expected to enhance elevated instability before sunrise which
supports holding pops in the chance category.

Timing remains solid on an early afternoon departure of the system
which will bring an end to rain concerns. The possible exception
will be some lake breeze and terrain induced instability showers
over northern lower michigan that could drift into the saginaw
valley and northern thumb during late afternoon. These will be
strongly dependent on daytime heating and will fade around sunset. A
clearing trend will then progress during the night as the short wave
ridge aloft and surface high pressure exert a stabilizing influence
that will provide dry and warm weather through Sunday.

The passage of the upper level trough axis today will mark the
beginning of a larger scale pattern shift toward a more zonal
configuration to start the week. This is projected in model data to
be kicked off mainly by a 100 kt upper jet moving into the pacific
northwest which will break down the amplified flow over north
america that has been a preferred mode over the last few weeks. The
zonal flow is itself an unstable configuration and is shown to
quickly begin buckling during Monday. There is usually some
uncertainty in model performance during these transitions but the
latest nwp package is in good agreement regarding upper level trough
development over central canada extending into the northern plains
states. This will produce the next low pressure system that is
expected to move into the great lakes by Tuesday with rain potential
as early as late Monday afternoon into Monday night in SE michigan.

The intensity and timing moisture return flow ahead of the front is
the main source of uncertainty for rain probability Monday and is
subject to slower timing adjustments as the upper trough and surface
low pressure system develop.

Moisture transport is expected to ramp up considerably later Monday
night into Tuesday. Surface high pressure linger over the gulf and
atlantic coast states will limit that source of moisture while the
frontal system taps instead some mid level monsoonal moisture from
the southwest. This is shown by modeled upper single digit 700 mb
dewpoint moving into the plains states by Tuesday morning. The
plentiful moisture supply and supportive large scale trough and low
pressure system in the great lakes makes it difficult to make a case
against aggressive machine generated guidance on pops through
Tuesday night. Some potential for thunderstorm organization will
also exist in this scenario, especially if afternoon timing holds on
the frontal passage.

Global model solutions are trending toward sharper trough
development over eastern canada after the system moves across the
great lakes. This will open the door for stronger high pressure to
develop over central canada and spread colder air into the great
lakes Wednesday into Thursday. The GFS offers 850 mb temperatures in
the 5-10c range by Wednesday evening which could limit highs to the
upper 60s in the saginaw valley. Modifying high pressure then holds
during the second half of the week and into next weekend.

Marine...

moderate northwesterlies will back to southwesterly by tonight and
persist into Tuesday. The next chance of thunderstorms late Monday
and again on Tuesday will be followed by winds veering back to
northwesterly behind a cold front tues aftn.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mann
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 4 mi42 min WNW 4.1 G 11 74°F 1012.7 hPa56°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 6 mi42 min 78°F 1012.6 hPa
PSCM4 28 mi30 min NNW 11 G 13 70°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 30 mi42 min 76°F 1012.9 hPa
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 38 mi90 min W 12 G 16 67°F 68°F1012.4 hPa (+1.2)
45147 - Lake St Clair 46 mi90 min N 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 73°F1012.4 hPa (+0.7)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi30 min WNW 8 G 14 75°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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SW3
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NE11
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G8
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G12
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G17
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G17
S8
G12
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G16
SE13
G16
S11
G14
S10
G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI13 mi34 minW 410.00 miOvercast72°F57°F61%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8
G15
W7W6CalmW6W3W4W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmW4W4NW4W6W5W4W5
1 day agoS8S9
G14
S8S8
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S7S6S5S3CalmSW4SW3SW3SW4CalmS4SW3SW4SW4SW10
G14
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W8SW7
G14
2 days agoN4E5N7N4N4CalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE4SE4SE5SE5SE6SE7SE7SE6SE4SE8SE5SE8SE7SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.