Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Huron, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:16 PM EST (19:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:18AMMoonset 5:38PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 1007 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Sunday morning...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the afternoon...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Light showers. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northwest gales to 35 knot gales. Light showers and a slight chance of light snow showers until early morning...then a chance of light snow showers and a slight chance of light showers early in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 8 to 12 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers early in the morning. A chance of light snow showers until late afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy in the late evening and early morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:201711182215;;597935 FZUS53 KDTX 181507 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1007 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-182215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Huron, MI
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location: 43.04, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181715
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1215 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Aviation
Rain with ifr lifr ceilings will be common into early this evening
as deepening low pressure passes to the south. There is a definite
trend today with rain mixing with and or changing to snow. This is
especially true kmbs kfnt (to some extend kptk), but i-94 corridor
is not out of the question either. With temperatures in the middle
30s (at the coldest), this will not cause much issues. Northwesterly
winds will, however, become quite gusty as this colder air rushes
into area behind the exiting low pressure. Expect a period of gusts
to 30 knots or a bit more (peaking in around midnight as best surge
of colder air arrives). Thereafter, grungy northwest flow pattern
sets up with CIGS in the 2500-3500 foot range north to south late
tonight into Sunday.

For dtw... Rain will continue with ifr lifr cigs. There is a small
chance snow will mix with the rain in the 00z-03z time frame before
ending, but will leave as all liquid for now given boundary layer
conditions attm. It will be hard to cool this column with downslope
northwest flow off irish hills this evening. Wind gusts will be an
issue though with gusts to 30-33 knots most likely (peaking several
hours around midnight).

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5kft.

* medium for CIGS at 200ft this afternoon.

* low for snow mixing in with rain 00z-03z.

* moderate for exceeding crosswind threshold from 340 to 310 degrees
00z-06z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 310 am est Sat nov 18 2017
discussion...

lead shortwave and associated rainfall was pushing east of the
forecast area early this morning. Attention now turns to the main
wave over the high plains of co ks nb as it moves into the lakes
region by this evening. Associated with this wave is the deepening
surface low. Models are still struggling with the location, the
strengthening and the timing of this surface low. Models continue
to be slower with the timing of the deepening of this feature with
the slightly flatter nature of the upper wave. This keeps the surface
low south of the state and moves it from northern in to central lake
erie this afternoon and evening while deepening it into the mid
980s mbs.

The bulk of the forcing with the lead wave has pushed east of the
forecast area. However a ribbon of 700-500 mb fgen across far
southern lower mi with modest isentropic lift moisture advection
will keep numerous showers in the forecast for the areas south of m
59 during the morning. Just a chance of showers north of that
during the morning hours. Between 15z and 18z, very good mid level
fgen and deformation works back over lower mi and continues through
00z. Also associated with that will be a little couple jet dynamic
from the right entrance region of the jet across the northern lakes
and the left front exit region of the 140kt jet cutting into the
ohio valley. Precipitable water will be just under an inch for this
event while mid level lapse rates may be just steep enough with the
dynamics to have a rumble of thunder for far southeast lower mi.

Without a doubt, the best instability and moisture will lie across
northern in and northern oh near the warm front, but think there
will be enough moisture and forcing between 700 and 300 mbs to bring
widespread half inch rainfall from 18z to 00z for southeast lower
mi. Will lean toward the cooler end of guidance temps with the
surface low staying south of the state with all the clouds and rain.

Nam is aggressive with the column cooling for the tri cities and fnt
areas from 22z to 00z early this evening. Local ensemble output
suggest a non-zero chance of accumulating snow, but more like 20 to
30 percent chance. Will certainly have snow mixing with the rain as
it ends during the evening across much of the forecast area, but
will hold off on any minor accumulations because of how quickly the
forcing pulls out of the region.

As the low deepens winds will increase this evening. Ensemble output
is suggestive of 35 to 40 mph peak wind gusts. This looks good given
not much more than 40 kts in the low level mixed layer.

Expect Sunday to be cloudy with plenty of flurries or even full
fledged snow showers through early afternoon. A good secondary
shortwave passes through over the forecast area and model soundings
indicate good shallow instability up to 8 to 10k feet. That should
be plenty good for scattered snow showers. Will lean toward a
cooler forecast highs mostly in the mid 30s on Sunday rather than
around 40 degrees of guidance. Hourly model guidance suggest that it
will be a struggle to get up into the mid 30s let alone 40.

After this weekend, weather will be a little quieter as far as
precipitation. Warmer, but seasonable conditions expected on Monday
and Tuesday. A cold front passing through the state on Tuesday will
be accompanied with wind both ahead and behind it. Temperatures will
again fall back to seasonably cool conditions for Wednesday and
thanksgiving.

Marine...

rapidly strengthening low pressure will lift from central indiana
across lake erie this afternoon. As it does so, nnw wind will
strengthen bringing widespread gales to the waters. Portions of the
southern lake huron basin may see periods of sustained gales
overnight. Significant wave heights of 12 feet or more will be
common with maximum wave heights potentially eclipsing 20 feet in
the open waters. Gale warnings remain in effect for all marine
zones. After a period of moderate to fresh westerlies Sunday night
through Monday night... Potential for SW gales develops early Tuesday
as low pressure tracks across northern ontario.

Hydrology...

light rain will remain mainly focused south of the m59 corridor for
the next several hours. Rain coverage to the west will fill in
throughout the morning as it tracks closer to the area. By this
afternoon, all of SE michigan will see moderate rain. Additional
rainfall totals will range from around 0.5" in the saginaw valley
area to an inch near the ohio border. The heaviest rain will be
focused in the 1pm to 7pm time frame. Minor urban flooding remains a
possibility.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 7 pm est Sunday for lhz361>363-462>464.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Sunday for lhz421-
441>443.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est Sunday for lhz422.

Lake st clair... Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Sunday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Sunday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Rbp
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 28 mi76 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 995.3 hPa (-3.7)
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 38 mi76 min N 3.9 G 3.9 45°F 47°F995.7 hPa (-2.4)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi76 min NE 7 G 7 44°F 994.2 hPa (-4.8)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI13 mi20 minNE 31.00 miRain45°F42°F93%993.2 hPa

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.