Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Huron, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 9:14PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 10:34 PM EDT (02:34 UTC) Moonrise 12:47AMMoonset 12:44PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 956 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:201906260900;;081940 FZUS53 KDTX 260200 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 956 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-260900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Huron, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.04, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 252337
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
737 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019

Aviation
Convective vorticity maximum anchored within deeper column warm air
advection push is sustaining a smaller thunderstorm complex over
portions of far western lower michigan. Initial warm advection has
resulted in a few convective towers lifting INVOF lansing. Timed a
prevailing MVFR shower group with vcts for the TAF sites mainly
between 01-03z. Limiting factors for activity this evening will be
low mixed layer instability and anticyclonic curvature to low level
flow. Near surface instability gradient cold front will then settle
south of lower michigan tonight. Subsidence is preferred on Wednesday
with deep midlevel anticyclonic flow aloft, thus quiet aviation
weather.

For dtw... Prevailing MVFR showers with vicinity thunderstorms
between 01-03z this evening. Brief heavy rain and wind gust to 40
mph with strongest thunderstorm activity possible.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate for thunderstorms between 01-03z.

* medium for cig to 5000 ft agl this evening..

Prev discussion
Issued at 358 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019
discussion...

uniform westerly flow trailing yesterday's cold front left lower
humidity over SE michigan today. This combined with breezy
conditions and mostly sunny sky is producing a pleasant day across
the region as high temperatures top out in the upper 70s and lower
80s.

Low level wind backs slightly tonight and directs modest moisture
return ahead of the next weak cold front moving across the midwest.

The front gets pushed eastward by the short wave riding along the
south flank of the central canadian upper level trough and preceded
by a well defined MCV moving through southern wi and northern il.

Convective potential associated with these features is the primary
forecast concern for tonight as the W SW flow draws some instability
into the central great lakes. The MCV presents the first chance for
activity in our area tonight as it initiated and continues to
organize pockets of surface based convection. This activity is
capable of reaching our area during the evening with some modest
strength keeping in mind MLCAPE effectiveness lingers past peak
heating this time of year. That being said, convective intensity
still has diurnal dependency as evidenced by the wide range of
mlcape projections offered in cam output. Surface analysis showing a
return of lower 60s dewpoint ahead of the MCV supports estimates
closer to 1000 j kg across southern lower michigan at 00z. This is
expected to sustain at least scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms but which are past peak intensity as they reach se
michigan and then decrease weaken from there to the east toward
midnight as the diurnal trend more fully plays out.

Not far behind and a little farther north is the larger scale short
wave more directly involved in progression of the surface front.

Regional scale models indicate a dull looking mid level moisture
axis extending SW to NE along and ahead of the front from which
additional showers and ordinary thunderstorms are possible
overnight. The moisture axis also marks a plume of lapse rate near
6.5 c km and 850 mb LI around -2 c on which the southern fringes of
the short wave can add some forcing during a small time window
overnight before the wave exits eastward before sunrise.

Neutral forcing to weak subsidence trailing the short wave in more
zonal flow aloft brings dry conditions to start Wednesday and we
begin a transition to more of a mid summer pattern. Convective
trends have low predictability due to upstream MCS activity and
associated MCV influence, the depiction of which in nwp will change
with each forecast cycle. What can be said with a little more
confidence is regarding the front moving through late tonight and
early Wednesday that stalls near the ohio border for the mid to late
week period. This is a good approximation for the position of the
instability gradient and the track of any organized storms Wednesday
night through Thursday.

Warm and humid summertime airmass to reside over the great lakes
through the extended period which will bring several rain and
thunderstorm chances late this week and again early next week. To
start, a weak shortwave and associated weak cold front will travel
across michigan throughout Friday which will bring the chance for
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Saturday will again
bring the chance for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening period, as daytime heating erodes a
low-level cap. A high pressure system is then forecasted to move
south from ontario Sunday afternoon and will center over the great
lakes by Monday morning, which will greatly diminish rain shower and
thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon into at least Monday morning.

Anticyclonic flow from the approaching high pressure system will
also act to push a cold front through at least the thumb region,
which will diminish temperatures slightly across SE mi down into the
lower-80s to even the upper-70s (mid to upper-70s over the thumb).

Prior to the passage of the front, forecasted highs are in the low
to mid-80s across SE mi, with upper-80s possible across across the
urban heat island metro area. Flow to turn more zonal to start early
next week which will return daytime highs back into the mid to upper-
80s and will bring the chance for showers and storms Monday into
Tuesday.

Marine...

winds across the central great lakes waterways will remain gusty
until this evening. W wsw sustained winds will drop to around 10
knots by 00z, gusting to less than 15 knots overnight. A stable
marine layer has helped offset stronger winds, keeping wave heights
below 3 feet with an amplitude reduction expected overnight. The
small craft advisory over saginaw bay has been allowed to expire
before 20z as winds should remain weaker than 20 knots, diminishing
further this evening ahead of thunderstorms. An evolving convective
complex is currently working eastward across lake michigan bringing
a chance for lightning and locally gusty winds after midnight.

Chances diminish after 09z before additional thunderstorm activity
may diurnally develop on Thursday and Friday. Warm and light
offshore flow is expected into the weekend becoming more variable on
Saturday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Bt tf
marine... ... .Kk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 4 mi53 min SW 6 G 8 77°F 1011.5 hPa57°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 6 mi53 min 73°F 1011.4 hPa
PSCM4 28 mi35 min SSW 5.1 G 7 75°F 1029.1 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 30 mi53 min 72°F 60°F1012 hPa
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 38 mi35 min S 7.8 G 7.8 63°F 59°F1 ft1010.9 hPa (+0.4)
45147 - Lake St Clair 46 mi35 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 69°F 64°F1 ft1011.5 hPa (+0.6)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi35 min SW 6 G 8.9 80°F 1012.9 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last
24hr
SW5
SW7
G10
SW7
G12
SW8
G11
SW7
G10
SW5
G10
SW5
G9
SW7
G10
SW5
G11
W6
G9
W8
G12
W9
G13
W9
G17
W16
G22
W12
G16
W14
G18
W6
G14
W8
G18
W11
G16
W10
G14
W8
G14
SW6
G12
SW4
SW7
1 day
ago
S8
S8
G12
S9
S9
S8
G13
S7
G11
S7
G10
S8
G11
S8
G11
S8
G12
S7
G12
S11
S7
G12
SW8
G16
SW9
G13
SW9
G16
SW13
G20
SW11
G17
SW7
G12
SW8
G13
SW6
G13
SW7
G15
SW9
G14
W13
G19
2 days
ago
NE7
N4
NW6
N6
N4
N4
NW6
NW4
--
NE3
NE3
NE5
NE5
NE4
N6
NE6
NE5
NE6
N5
N6
N5
SE1
SE1
E2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI13 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair70°F60°F73%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last 24hrCalmS3S4SW4CalmCalmSW3SW3SW3W4SW4W8W6W11
G16
W6
G14
W5--W6SW5SW6SW3SW3CalmSW5
G16
1 day agoSE4S3SE3SE4SE4SE3E3SE6SE4S6S5S10
G14
S11
G17
S10SW9S14
G18
S10
G17
S11S7S7S8S8S7Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S3SW8S4S9S5S6S3S5S8S4CalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.