Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Huron, MI
May 15, 2024 6:24 PM EDT (22:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 11:58 AM Moonset 1:50 AM |
LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 340 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm edt this evening - .
Tonight - North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ400
No data
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 151950 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry conditions through today and much of tomorrow.
- Increasing precipitation chances Thursday night with scattered to numerous showers and possible embedded thunderstorms Friday.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, mainly Saturday, with an active weather pattern setting up early to middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
A surface low pressure will continue the slow progression eastward today with northeast winds gusting to around 15 knots across most of southeast Michigan this afternoon. Drier air filtering into the region has brought decreasing clouds north of I-96 with lingering clouds to the south with even a hint of elevated smoke from wildfires present across parts of central Michigan. Any low chance of precipitation this afternoon has come to an end with dry conditions expected to hold through this evening and overnight.
Surface high pressure center over Hudson Bay and shortwave ridging aloft passing through Michigan early in the day will help maintain dry conditions through much of the day tomorrow, but high falls will be encroaching into the western/central Great Lakes associated with an upper Midwest trough. Increasing clouds will arrive downstream of this feature during the afternoon into the evening. Lower level moisture advection will ramp up throughout the day as well. Marginal instability tries to develop along the southwestern fringes of the CWA during the afternoon, but synoptic lift is rather weak. This should keep any isolated or scattered showers and possible thunderstorms that may develop during the afternoon to the west of the forecast area. Warm advection throughout tomorrow will bring afternoon high temperatures up a few degrees compared to today into the mid 70s. Weak shortwave energy over Michigan tomorrow night will bring increasing precipitation chances during the overnight period, but any activity should be scattered.
The weakening trough lifting into the northern Great Lakes/Ontario will drag a weakening frontal boundary through the central Great Lakes on Friday with more appreciable chances for rainfall during the morning and afternoon. Models have some increasing instability into the afternoon ahead of this front. MLCAPE values generally around 500-750 J/kg are forecast by the RAP for Friday afternoon.
Bulk shear at 0-6 km will be around the 25-40 knot range. Though, steep mid level lapse rates will be lacking based on the forecast right now. This environment will be supportive of mainly general thunderstorms given the lack of strong forcing.
The start of the weekend will see a southern stream shortwave lift out of the southern plains and into the central/northern Appalachian Mountains while the northern stream jet situates west to east from the PacNW through the upper Midwest. Saturday will see weak surface flow with a relatively warm and moist airmass residing across Michigan. Weak lift in the vicinity of the southern stream trough combining with the diurnal instability may be enough to generate some isolated to possibly scattered convection, though much of the area probably remains dry. Will maintain lower end PoPs of 20-30% for Saturday afternoon. Lead shortwave trough at the front end of the northern stream jet will help drive a cold front through Michigan on Sunday. Confidence decreases in regards to precipitation chances along this front, but it looks like chances will be limited as deeper forcing holds off to the north. Zonal flow pattern sets up for early next week setting up a possible active stretch of weather.
MARINE
Low pressure exits the Ohio Valley today, keeping fresh northeast flow in place. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Saginaw Bay through 8pm and for the nearshore zones between Port Sanilac and Port Huron through 11pm tonight. Northeast wind over the bay up to 25 knots will continue to die down through the evening hours, and peak hazard conditions have already occurred for that area. High waves are the concern for the Port Sanilac to Port Huron near shore zone. High pressure briefly influences the area Thursday morning, before showers return on Thursday evening into Friday due to low pressure dragging a front across the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms are also possible with this event, but other than localized impacts due to these showers/storms, winds are expected to remain gentle at 10 knots, with waves expected to remain low through Friday and into the weekend.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
AVIATION...
Split upper level flow will bring a period of shortwave ridging across Southeast Michigan the remainder of today and tonight.
Easterly wind trajectories will be in place in response to strong surface high pressure in northern Canada. Boundary layer cloud and saturation is forecasted to push toward the taf sites after 07Z tonight, then persist and lift by midday Thursday. MVFR ceiling heights are possible Thursday morning.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less early after 09Z Thursday morning.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ443.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry conditions through today and much of tomorrow.
- Increasing precipitation chances Thursday night with scattered to numerous showers and possible embedded thunderstorms Friday.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, mainly Saturday, with an active weather pattern setting up early to middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
A surface low pressure will continue the slow progression eastward today with northeast winds gusting to around 15 knots across most of southeast Michigan this afternoon. Drier air filtering into the region has brought decreasing clouds north of I-96 with lingering clouds to the south with even a hint of elevated smoke from wildfires present across parts of central Michigan. Any low chance of precipitation this afternoon has come to an end with dry conditions expected to hold through this evening and overnight.
Surface high pressure center over Hudson Bay and shortwave ridging aloft passing through Michigan early in the day will help maintain dry conditions through much of the day tomorrow, but high falls will be encroaching into the western/central Great Lakes associated with an upper Midwest trough. Increasing clouds will arrive downstream of this feature during the afternoon into the evening. Lower level moisture advection will ramp up throughout the day as well. Marginal instability tries to develop along the southwestern fringes of the CWA during the afternoon, but synoptic lift is rather weak. This should keep any isolated or scattered showers and possible thunderstorms that may develop during the afternoon to the west of the forecast area. Warm advection throughout tomorrow will bring afternoon high temperatures up a few degrees compared to today into the mid 70s. Weak shortwave energy over Michigan tomorrow night will bring increasing precipitation chances during the overnight period, but any activity should be scattered.
The weakening trough lifting into the northern Great Lakes/Ontario will drag a weakening frontal boundary through the central Great Lakes on Friday with more appreciable chances for rainfall during the morning and afternoon. Models have some increasing instability into the afternoon ahead of this front. MLCAPE values generally around 500-750 J/kg are forecast by the RAP for Friday afternoon.
Bulk shear at 0-6 km will be around the 25-40 knot range. Though, steep mid level lapse rates will be lacking based on the forecast right now. This environment will be supportive of mainly general thunderstorms given the lack of strong forcing.
The start of the weekend will see a southern stream shortwave lift out of the southern plains and into the central/northern Appalachian Mountains while the northern stream jet situates west to east from the PacNW through the upper Midwest. Saturday will see weak surface flow with a relatively warm and moist airmass residing across Michigan. Weak lift in the vicinity of the southern stream trough combining with the diurnal instability may be enough to generate some isolated to possibly scattered convection, though much of the area probably remains dry. Will maintain lower end PoPs of 20-30% for Saturday afternoon. Lead shortwave trough at the front end of the northern stream jet will help drive a cold front through Michigan on Sunday. Confidence decreases in regards to precipitation chances along this front, but it looks like chances will be limited as deeper forcing holds off to the north. Zonal flow pattern sets up for early next week setting up a possible active stretch of weather.
MARINE
Low pressure exits the Ohio Valley today, keeping fresh northeast flow in place. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Saginaw Bay through 8pm and for the nearshore zones between Port Sanilac and Port Huron through 11pm tonight. Northeast wind over the bay up to 25 knots will continue to die down through the evening hours, and peak hazard conditions have already occurred for that area. High waves are the concern for the Port Sanilac to Port Huron near shore zone. High pressure briefly influences the area Thursday morning, before showers return on Thursday evening into Friday due to low pressure dragging a front across the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms are also possible with this event, but other than localized impacts due to these showers/storms, winds are expected to remain gentle at 10 knots, with waves expected to remain low through Friday and into the weekend.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
AVIATION...
Split upper level flow will bring a period of shortwave ridging across Southeast Michigan the remainder of today and tonight.
Easterly wind trajectories will be in place in response to strong surface high pressure in northern Canada. Boundary layer cloud and saturation is forecasted to push toward the taf sites after 07Z tonight, then persist and lift by midday Thursday. MVFR ceiling heights are possible Thursday morning.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less early after 09Z Thursday morning.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ443.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI | 4 mi | 54 min | N 18G | 54°F | 29.80 | 46°F | ||
| PBWM4 | 5 mi | 54 min | 54°F | 29.81 | ||||
| MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI | 6 mi | 54 min | 59°F | 29.80 | ||||
| AGCM4 | 30 mi | 54 min | 64°F | 52°F | 29.78 | |||
| 45149 - Southern Lake Huron | 37 mi | 84 min | N 14 | 47°F | 43°F | 3 ft | 29.83 | |
| CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 48 mi | 84 min | NE 13G | 63°F | 29.81 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| CYZR SARNIA CHRIS HADFIELD,CN | 3 sm | 24 min | N 13G18 | 9 sm | Clear | 54°F | 45°F | 71% | 29.84 | |
| KPHN ST CLAIR COUNTY INTL,MI | 13 sm | 29 min | N 08G15 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 46°F | 55% | 29.83 |
Detroit, MI,
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