Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:23PM Thursday November 22, 2018 5:24 AM CST (11:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:29PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 506 Am Cst Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am cst this morning through late Friday night...
Today..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of drizzle and light freezing drizzle early in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Friday..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Friday night..South wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots until early morning. Chance of rain through around midnight, then rain after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet early in the morning.
LMZ645 Expires:201811221700;;678819 FZUS53 KMKX 221106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 AM CST Thu Nov 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-221700-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.04, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 221101
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
501 am cst Thu nov 22 2018

Update Going forecast in good shape. Cloud cover has filled in
across extreme NE ia into SW wi merging with existing cloud deck,
so cloud cover to be widespread today. Drizzle potential looks
spotty at best.

Pc

Aviation(12z tafs) Widespread MVFR CIGS across SRN wi. Expect
this to hang around for much of the day with southeast winds
trending south. Surface high to the east and approaching trough
means tightening pressure gradient an an uptick in the winds.

Perhaps some spotty drizzle today but not confident in coverage
nor occurrence for any sort of inclusion in taf's. Cloud cover
likely to shift north of the area overnight with a steady south
wind continuing. Rainfall holds off until later Friday with
highest chances arriving Friday night.

Pc

Prev discussion (issued 250 am cst Thu nov 22 2018)
short term...

today - confidence... Medium.

Mid level ridge axis shifts to the mississippi river valley.

Meanwhile surface high will shift further east and be across the
eastern lakes region by days end. Low level WAA regime will be in
place. Impressive 850 millibar thermal packing with strong waa
signal. Much of this lift will be above better moisture signal on
bufkit. However, will retain small chance of light drizzle or
freezing drizzle in the northeast CWA but confidence is quite low on
this. Low level rh progs showing cloud cover across eastern iowa
early this morning with additional development having increased
there since 08z or so. Southeast winds will be on the increase as
pressure gradient starts to tighten up.

Tonight - confidence... Medium mid level ridge axis shifts to the
east, meanwhile 925 thermal advection ramps up. Low level rh
progs MOS suggest cloud deck will get advected north of the CWA with
time. Expecting non-diurnal temp trend as south winds are sustained
with push of milder airmass in the low levels.

Friday through Saturday night... Forecast confidence - medium to
high.

Strong low level southerly winds will be ongoing at the start of the
period, which will continue to pump higher moisture and warmer air
into the area. 925h temps rise to 3 to 6c on Friday, before light
rain and showers spread into the area during the afternoon and
evening. Short term guidance remain in good agreement on timing and
strength of sharpening mid-level trof tracking east across the upper
midwest on Friday and Saturday. Upper trof takes on a negative tilt
as it moves through the western great lakes Friday night and
Saturday, hence light rain should linger into Saturday morning.

Atmosphere cools as precip begins Friday evening most areas, but wet
bulb temperature in the low levels remain around +3 degrees, so
liquid precipitation expected. However can not rule out a few snow
pellets mixing in with the rain, especially in the northern areas.

Pavement temperature will have warmed into the 40s before precip
onset on Friday. Two meter temps should cool into the mid to upper
30s Friday with precip onset. Also sub-surface temps remain at or
just above freezing through an 8" depth so no freezing liquid issues
expected at this time Friday night.

Lingering rain should taper off during the day Saturday. Light snow
chances will increase Saturday night ahead of next system
strengthening in the central plains.

Long term...

Sunday through Wednesday night... Forecast confidence - medium.

Medium range consensus continues to increase and confidence
continues to grow for potential significant winter weather event to
affect southern wi Sunday into Sunday night. Both GFS and gem are
showing phasing of southern stream amplifying short wave trof with
canadian low pressure north of lake superior. ECMWF not showing as
much phasing but now slower as southern stream short wave continues
to amplify as it passes just south of wi during this period.

Guidance is also trending colder with more of a snow threat over
more of southern wi Sunday into Sunday night. Latest 36 hour qpf
from 12z Sun to 00z Tue from medium range guidance is showing
amounts anywhere from one quarter inch in the northwest CWA to over
an inch in the southeast. Emc GEFS qpf plume ranges anywhere from a
couple hundredths to just under 2", with the mean around 0.8". Wpc
not bullish on QPF for Sunday and Sunday night at this point due to
uncertainty. Meanwhile, model certainty QPF based on available
computer guidance shows a 50% range from 4 tenths in the northwest
to 9 tenths in the southeast. All medium range guidance showing
deepening surface low pressure moving from central or southern il
toward lower michigan later Sunday and Sunday night. This would also
result in a tightening pressure gradient and gusty north to
northeast winds with potential of strong wind gusts exacerbating
winter situation, in addition to potential lake enhancement. At this
point, heaviest QPF and snowfall would be in east central into
southeast wi. Snow liquid ratios should be higher at the onset
around 8 to 1, cooling to around climatological normal (13 to 1)
toward end of event. Needless to say, this system may have
significant impacts on end of holiday travel conditions, with
impacts continuing into the Monday morning commute. Will heighten
awareness in hwo and sps. All interests planning travel will need to
keep a close eye on the situation for Sunday and Sunday night.

After winds and potential blowing snow wind down on Monday, looks
cold and quiet for Tuesday into Wednesday. A clipper-type system
may return light snow to the area later Wednesday into Thursday.

Temps to remain below normal.

Aviation(09z tafs)... Surface high pressure across lower
michigan will shift further east into the eastern lakes region
today. Low level warm air advection will be prevalent through
tonight. A mostlyVFR cloud deck may lower as some moistening is
proggd in the soundings. Seeing development there since about 08z
which has lowered to MVFR levels. A small chance of freezing drizzle
or drizzle exists in the northeast CWA today but confidence in
coverage and occurrence is on the low side. Whatever cloud deck
remains this evening is expected to shift north of SRN wi as low
level baroclinic zone lifts further north with strengthening
southerly wind flow ahead of the next weather rain maker for later
Friday into Friday night.

Marine... A windy pattern set up with high wave action expected.

Tight pressure gradient sets up between a retreating high pressure
system and approaching trough from the plains. Southeast winds will
lead to small craft conditions for the nearshore areas beginning
today while low level southerly speed MAX will result in gale force
winds evolving Friday through Friday night. For now gale watch has
been maintained with an eventual upgrade to a warning looking likely.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
for lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868
gale watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night
for lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-87.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Thursday to 6 am cst Saturday
for lmz643>646.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Collar
Friday through Wednesday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 1 mi34 min E 15 G 17 31°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi44 min ESE 12 G 16 31°F 1031.2 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 32 mi24 min ESE 15 G 18 32°F 1029.5 hPa (-0.0)
45187 38 mi24 min 39°F 41°F3 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi44 min ESE 9.9 G 14 33°F
45186 47 mi24 min SSE 9.7 35°F 39°F2 ft

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last
24hr
NW22
NW20
G25
N15
N7
G12
N11
G15
N13
G19
NW15
NW6
G12
NW12
G15
NW10
N9
G12
NE6
NE9
NE7
G11
NE7
G10
NE9
G15
NE13
G17
NE11
G17
NE13
G17
E13
G17
E12
G18
E12
G17
E12
G15
E13
G17
1 day
ago
NE4
E2
N3
NE5
NE5
G8
E6
SE1
G5
S5
S8
G12
S17
SW22
SW22
SW24
G29
SW26
G32
SW26
SW24
G32
SW24
G29
W24
G32
W26
W24
W20
G27
W22
W19
G26
NW18
G25
2 days
ago
SW11
G15
SW12
SW13
G16
SW15
S17
SW17
SW17
G21
SW16
SW16
SW13
SW10
G15
W13
G16
NW15
NW14
G17
NW13
G18
N9
G12
N6
G9
NE4
G8
NE6
NE7
G10
N7
G11
NE13
G17
NE10
NE8
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI6 mi32 minE 1010.00 miOvercast31°F19°F64%1030.9 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI10 mi29 minESE 610.00 miOvercast30°F19°F64%1030.1 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI16 mi29 minE 710.00 miOvercast28°F19°F69%1029.5 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi31 minE 910.00 miOvercast31°F21°F69%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last 24hrN11N9N10N7
G16
N7N8N11NE10NE8N11NE9NE9NE9NE10NE9NE8NE11E10E9E9E8E9E9E10
1 day agoNW8NW6NW6NW5CalmSW10W10
G19
SW13
G26
W14
G22
SW16
G26
SW15SW13
G22
W13
G21
W13
G24
SW12
G23
W11
G29
W15
G26
W16
G23
W13
G22
W10W9NW7NW8NW9
2 days agoSW6SW6SW9SW9W9W7W9W6W7W7NW7NW5NW7N10NW10N9NW6NW8NW10N13
G22
NW13NW8NW9NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (6,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.