Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:23PM Friday February 15, 2019 9:49 PM CST (03:49 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 4:22AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 906 Pm Cst Fri Feb 15 2019
Rest of tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering north early in the morning. Freezing spray. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..North wind 10 to 15 knots veering northeast late in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering east with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Freezing spray after midnight. Snow likely after midnight. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Sunday..East wind 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ645 Expires:201902161100;;001912 FZUS53 KMKX 160306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 906 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-161100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, WI
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location: 43.04, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 160307
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
907 pm cst Fri feb 15 2019

Update The forecast is on track for tnt-sat.

Marine Brisk nnwly winds will continue to weaken tnt over all
of lake mi. A sfc ridge will then shift east across lake mi on sat
with relatively light nnely winds expected. As the high moves ewd
and low pressure moves from the central great plains through the
ohio river valley, brisk enely winds will then prevail for Sat nt-
sun nt. High waves may reach small craft advisory levels for the
nearshore waters of east central and SE wi. Lighter winds are then
expected for mon-tue.

Prev discussion (issued 612 pm cst Fri feb 15 2019)
update... The sfc ridge over the mo river valley will shift ewd
across SRN wi Sat am. As it does so, nely winds and lake effect
clouds will move into SE wi. The flow then becomes more ely
through the day and evening with the lake effect clouds spreading
well inland. Declining winds and only high, thin clouds will make
for another cold night mainly in the single digits. The temps will
rebound into the 20s for sat.

Aviation(00z tafs)...VFR conditions tnt. Lake effect clouds will
then develop over SE wi Sat am with some CIGS of 2-3 kft. The lake
effect clouds will then move west and overspread all of SRN wi
during the afternoon and early evening. Flurries will be possible.

Prev discussion... (issued 237 pm cst Fri feb 15 2019)
short term...

tonight and Saturday... Forecast confidence is high:
high pressure will move overhead tonight. The main concern with
the overnight forecast will be temps. Models are fairly split
between decent or marginal radiational cooling. Seems the main
players will be a little bit of warming aloft and increasing high
clouds (likely the bigger factor). Kept it a tad milder in the
south per the better chance at high clouds and also in the east
due to more wind at the surface. Overall, ended up with temps
generally down the middle between the two main model solutions.

Winds will become easterly as the high begins to shift to the east
on Saturday. Thinking that this will result in some lake effect
clouds in at least the eastern forecast area. Moisture does not
look substantial enough (and delta TS marginal) for lake effect
snow. A few flurries aren't out of the question though. Temps will
be milder tomorrow, though still a few degrees below normal for
mid-february.

Long term...

Saturday night through Sunday night... Forecast confidence high...

by Saturday evening a shortwave will be rotating through the
central plains, with associated isentropic ascent overspreading
the area from the west during the overnight hours. Looks like a
period of light snow can be expected from late Saturday night
through much of the day on Sunday. Amounts should be pretty light,
with amounts ranging from 1-3 to 2-4 inches across the area. Given
that this will be falling over the course of at least 12 hours,
wouldn't anticipate any major impacts, beyond just the usual slick
spots on untreated roadways. The highest snow totals look to be
across southwestern wisconsin, where moisture and lift will be
maximized. There will also likely be a maximum along the
lakeshore, where winds and temperatures will be favorable for some
lake effect lingering into Sunday night. Depending on how quickly
winds switch from north northeast to northwest, some light lake
effect snow could persist into Monday morning.

Monday and Tuesday... Forecast confidence high...

any lingering snow should end by mid morning Monday. Highs will
be on the cool side, with readings in the low to perhaps mid 20s.

Tuesday will be similar, with low to mid 20s once again.

Tuesday night through next Friday... Forecast confidence
moderate...

extended guidance has been fairly persistent in bringing another
round of snow to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. For now
guidance is pointing toward something in the 2-4" range for most
of the region, though there's still plenty of time for details to
change. With temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 and most
of the snow currently progged to fall during the daytime hours,
overall impacts should be minor.

The remainder of the week should feature temperatures at or a bit
above average, with highs around 30 and lows in the teens.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

vfr conditions and easing winds are expected through tonight as
high pressure moves overhead. Winds will become easterly on
Saturday as the high begins to shift to the east. Lake effect
clouds may push inland due to this wind shift, with some MVFR
ceilings possible later morning into the afternoon, particularly
near lake michigan. Could see a snowflake or two out of these
clouds... But overall expecting dry weather through the afternoon
hours.

Widespread light snow along with lower CIGS and vsbys will
arrive toward daybreak Sunday.

Marine...

winds and waves will continue to ease into tonight as high
pressure moves overhead. Some freezing spray will linger into
tonight, but the main threat for heavy freezing spray has ended.

Persistent easterly winds could result in waves up to 5 feet
Saturday night into Sunday. A small craft advisory may be needed
for the nearshore waters. Otherwise, winds waves generally look
below headline criteria into next week.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Gehring
tonight Saturday and aviation marine... Boxell
Saturday night through Friday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 1 mi39 min WNW 11 G 15 17°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi69 min WNW 11 G 17 15°F 1018.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 32 mi49 min NW 6 G 9.9 14°F 1017.6 hPa (+1.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi69 min NW 4.1 G 8 16°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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SW10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI6 mi57 minWNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds16°F3°F56%1019 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI10 mi54 minNW 710.00 miFair14°F1°F57%1017.6 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI16 mi64 minW 610.00 miClear10°F1°F67%1017.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi56 minNW 510.00 miFair14°F3°F61%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW17
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NW12NW9NW8NW8NW10NW8
1 day agoSW8SW4SE3E3S3SE6SE5S6SE5S4SE6SE3CalmCalmS5S3S5S4SW5SW8SW5W6W10NW8
G18
2 days agoW18
G29
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W9SW7SW7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.