Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Days Creek, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:54PM Friday February 22, 2019 8:43 AM PST (16:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:55PMMoonset 9:03AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 203 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Winds and steep seas are gradually subsiding, and seas will lower below 10 feet by Friday morning. High pressure will nudge into the waters tonight, then weaken Friday. A weak front will move into the area Friday night into Saturday, then stall over the area through Sunday at least. The front will gain strength late in the weekend and early next week and bring the potential for increasing winds and waves.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Days Creek, OR
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location: 43.05, -122.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 221624
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
824 am pst Fri feb 22 2019

Update No major changes were necessary today, as the forecast
appears to be right on rack through the morning. However, there is
significantly less coverage of fog west of the cascades, so we
have removed mention of fog and reduced cloud coverage for most
places. Have left fog in place for portions of the illinois and
umpqua basins, where some patchy fog has been spotted this
morning, but otherwise, the area remains mostly clear.

Primary forecast concern for today will be the upcoming extended
period of precipitation, both rain and snow, that will prompt some
mountain travel concerns and potentially some flooding concerns
as well, as plenty of rain is possible over snowpack and already
saturated ground. It is safe to say we will see near constant
precipitation beginning in earnest Saturday night and continuing
into at least Tuesday. Exactly how much rain falls and where, when
and ow much snow levels rise, and how much runoff and snowmelt
will lead to river and stream rises remains uncertain, but
hydrological concerns will be widespread. Stay up-to-date with
further updates through the weekend for potential flooding and
mountain snow headlines.

For more detail on these concerns and the rest of the forecast,
see the previous discussion below. -bpn

Aviation For the 22 06z tafs...VFR conditions will continue early
tonight across the area. Areas of ifr lifr CIGS vis with
fog freezing fog are expected to develop tonight and early Friday
morning in most west side valleys. Confidence is moderate for the
coastal areas tonight, but we thinkVFR conditions will prevail due
to a drier air mass in place. East of the cascades, some MVFR
cigs low clouds are possible tonight, especially on northeast-facing
terrain due to continued northeast winds.

Marine Updated 800 am pst Friday 22 february 2019... Relatively
calm conditions will continue into Saturday. A weak front will move
into the area late tonight into Saturday, but winds will stay below
small craft.

The next potential hazard to mariners will be Sunday with stronger
winds from the south. These winds will likely pose a hazard to
smaller crafts on Sunday with possibility for gale force winds close
to the coastline. With the increase in stronger south winds on
Sunday, wind waves and fresh swell out of the south will probably
create problems for smaller crafts Sunday into Monday. Note: last
nights ECMWF shows the frontal boundary draped just south of the
waters Sunday which will result in lighter winds and a wind
direction from the southeast. Today's run could show a different
solution, so stay tuned. -smith petrucelli

Prev discussion issued 345 am pst Fri feb 22 2019
discussion... As we head into the weekend the region switches once
again into an active and very wet pattern as an atmospheric river
event moves in Sunday.

With thicker cirrus moving over the region the higher low deck has
mostly cleared out temperatures are nearing dew points in the west
side valleys and have more confidence with the possibility of
patchy freezing fog in spite of the colder temperatures this
morning. Heights fall with the offshore upper level high and a
105kt jet pushes down on the back side pushes the next front into
our area this afternoon. As the axis of the slowly strengthening
jet moves slowly south and westerly 700 mb flow increases, precip
rates increase as well as we head into Sunday morning. With this
cool westerly flow snow levels will be low Sunday morning.

However, as we proceed farther into the day Sunday, the
atmospheric river moisture flow moves in with 700 flow becoming
more southwesterly brining rising snow levels as we head into the
afternoon. Although the axis of a 110kt jet is well to the north
of the area, the area will be in a favorable right entrance region
of the jet, helping to increase precipitation rates.

Snow levels rise above 3000 feet by Sunday afternoon as the
atmospheric river event is in full swing with the region being in
the fork of a splint jet flow Sunday morning and divergent flow
aloft in the afternoon Sunday. However, with higher rates in the
mount shasta area, snow levels will be low Sunday morning, but
before heavier amounts move in. As we head into Sunday afternoon
the boundary layer to 700 mb winds increase and the precipitation
becomes more orographically influenced and inland valleys will be
more rain shadowed compared to the coastal ranges and inland
mountains. Southerly winds will also increase at the coast and in
the shasta valley.

The core of a 90kt jet points directly at the region Sunday
evening into Monday morning with southwest winds increasing
further, combining with good jet dynamics, upper level divergence,
and the atmospheric river flow to further increase precipitation
rates, especially on the coast and south coastal ranges. Sven

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Frost advisory until 8 am pst this morning for orz021-022.

Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for orz029-030.

Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for orz025.

Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for orz027-028.

Ca... Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for caz080.

Pacific coastal waters... Frost advisory until 8 am pst this morning for pzz350-356.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 83 mi68 min SE 4.1 G 6 50°F1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR31 mi51 minN 00.15 miFreezing Fog30°F28°F96%1022.8 hPa

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N6N8NE5N8N8N9N8N7N5CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS3S3SW3CalmCalmW53S63E3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN6CalmN4N7CalmCalmN3N4N3
2 days agoCalmSE3CalmCalm3W43S5SE4SW44S4S4SW5SW3S5CalmSE73CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Fri -- 03:18 AM PST     7.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:08 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:26 AM PST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:17 PM PST     7.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:43 PM PST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.156.57.276.14.631.7111.93.34.96.376.85.94.42.81.30.30.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:07 AM PST     8.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:09 AM PST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:09 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:09 PM PST     7.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:57 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:25 PM PST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:01 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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67.58.27.86.54.72.91.50.91.22.44.15.87.27.87.56.34.52.50.900.11.12.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.