Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Myrtle Creek, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:47PM Sunday November 18, 2018 8:05 AM PST (16:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:53PMMoonset 1:59AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 236 Am Pst Sun Nov 18 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Winds and seas will be relatively benign over the next few days. A weak front will pass through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing stronger south winds, rain, and steep seas. A stronger front will move onshore Thursday, and this may bring gale force south winds to the area. High west swell may develop Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Creek, OR
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location: 43.05, -123.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 181403
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
603 am pst Sun nov 18 2018

Discussion The forecast continues to be separated between a
continuation through Tuesday of the current dry pattern dominated
by high pressure, and a major shift to an active, frequently wet
and windy pattern with a series of frontal systems Tuesday night
into next weekend.

In the short term, the sky cover for this morning was adjusted to
better reflect coverage of low clouds and patchy fog from the
coast into the umpqua valley with early morning patches also
possible in josephine county. With winds aloft shifting from
northerly to southerly today, we still expect some smoke to enter
the forecast area due to the camp fire near chico, california.

This will occur through Tuesday. Siskiyou county will be the main
part of the forecast area impacted by surface smoke. Then, as the
smoke moves into oregon, it should be mainly aloft in the form of
haze. The air stagnation advisory remains in effect for most valleys
through Monday night, and through Tuesday night for west side
valleys.

With the previous issuance of the forecast on Saturday afternoon,
progress was made at discerning the most likely impacts with each
of the disturbances. Analysis of the 00z data still largely
supports maintaining those general conclusions with higher
confidence in the forecast through thanksgiving, then model
uncertainty from Thursday night onward limiting confidence to low
to moderate regarding the forecast specifics.

The features of highest interest are likely: rain intensity, snow
levels and amounts, and wind speeds.

Snow levels are unlikely to get lower than 4000 feet during the
next week with a snow level forecast to briefly fall to 4000 to
4500 feet late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Snow levels are expected to remain above the major passes with
the first system late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The two main
features of this will be moderate to locally heavy coastal rain
from around midnight at least into mid-morning, and breezy to
windy southerly winds with the strongest gusts during Wednesday
afternoon in the shasta valley at up to 40 mph. Precipitation
after mid-morning will likely be lighter but more widespread in
coverage.

Snow levels will fall to around 5500 to 6000 feet Wednesday night
with additional mainly light precipitation. This would send the
snow level down to most of the crest of the cascades, but still
have precipitation in the form of rain on the major passes.

That would still be the case as a stronger frontal system
arrives at the coast sometime during the daylight hours of
Thursday. Snow levels will drop farther Thursday though
uncertainty in snow levels grows to a notch higher. Precipitation
is likely to affect all of the area Thursday through Thursday
night and possibly into Friday. Curry, western josephine, and
western siskiyou counties will be favored for receiving the
heaviest precipitation with the possibility that the currently
forecast amounts of 1 to 2 inches are conservative. The strongest
wind speeds of the week are likely to occur at the coast on
Thursday morning and inland during Thursday afternoon and evening
with the GFS currently supporting shasta valley and east side
winds reaching advisory strength.

The ECMWF is stronger and positioned farther north than the gfs
with the next front on Friday. These model differences are
critical but it is safe to say that snow levels will be lowering
late in the day on Friday into early Saturday, and will likely
reach their lowest point early Saturday morning.

For next weekend, models disagree on the extent to which a ridge
offshore from central and southern california will have an impact
on our weather. The ECMWF shows stronger ridging while the GFS and
a sizeable minority of GFS ensemble members continue a series of
disturbances riding over the top of the ridge into our area. At
the least, compared to yesterday's solutions, there is a
decreased probability of precipitation. A drier solution would
be accompanied by an increased probability of travel difficulties
due to persistent valley fog.

Aviation For the 18 12z tafs... A southerly surge of stratus
continues to impact the coast bringing periods of lifr vsbys. In the
umpqua basin, it will be another morning of fog low stratus, but the
mid levels are in a drying trend and expect CIGS to scatter by early
afternoon. In west side valleys south of the umpqua divide, surface
humidities are trending slightly higher than 24 hours ago. While
still not overly wet, with stable conditions and considering it's
november, won't be surprised to see patchy, short-lived valley fog
around sunrise. East of the cascades, stable conditions and a
relatively humid boundary layer could facilitate cigs
developing... Otherwise, expectVFR. -mm sven

Marine Updated 400 am pst Sunday 18 november 2018... The thermal
trough has weakened leaving south winds with a surge of stratus near
the coast in its wake. Winds and seas will be relatively benign over
the next few days. A weak front will pass through the area late
Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing strong south winds, rain, and steep
seas. A stronger front will move onshore Thursday, and this may
bring gale force south winds to the area. Heavy west swell may
develop Thursday night. -mm sven

Fire weather Light to moderate easterly winds with moderate rh
recoveries through Tuesday morning across the upper slopes,
ridges, and east to west oriented valleys from the cascades
westward.

Gusty southerly winds with a continued dry air mass Tuesday
afternoon and evening in the shasta valley and east of the
cascades.

Unseasonably dry weather is expected through Tuesday with light
to moderate easterly winds, and moderate rh recoveries at upper
slopes and ridge tops. Southerly winds will then increase Tuesday
afternoon ahead of a major change in the weather pattern. These
winds will be strongest in the shasta valley and east of the
cascades. A series of frontal systems will bring valley rain,
mountain snow, and periods of moderate to strong winds to the area
Wednesday into next weekend.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz021.

Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Wednesday for orz023.

Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz024>031.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.

Dw sbn map


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 57 mi89 min Calm G 1 49°F1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR13 mi72 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist43°F42°F97%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmSW3CalmCalmNW3CalmS3
1 day agoN3CalmSE3S3CalmNW5CalmSE5SE5CalmCalmSE3SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N3N3N3N3
2 days agoS4S4CalmCalmN4N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon (2)
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Charleston
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Sun -- 01:56 AM PST     1.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:03 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:36 AM PST     7.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:57 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:01 PM PST     2.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:49 PM PST     5.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.91.722.845.36.477.16.55.54.33.22.42.12.33.14.155.75.95.54.7

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:55 AM PST     1.83 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:03 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:32 AM PST     7.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:56 PM PST     2.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:57 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:46 PM PST     5.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.11.82.134.15.36.4776.45.54.33.22.52.22.53.34.35.25.85.95.64.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.