Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 1:19 PM   Moonset 2:28 AM

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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds around 10 knots veering southwest toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Patchy dense fog. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering northeast after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southwest, then veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot. Saturday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering south after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves less than 1 foot. Sunday - West winds around 10 knots veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 170200 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1000 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms tonight/early Friday

- Dry and Mild Weekend

- Active Weather to Start the Work-Week

UPDATE
Issued at 955 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Evening showers and storms are now diminishing as diurnal instability declines. Any regeneration/redevelopment overnight remains most likely in the northern zones (US-10 corridor) due to proximity to the shortwave and associated lift moving through Wisconsin and into the U.P. However, last few hi-res model runs have backed off a bit on thunderstorm coverage after midnight tonight, so it's possible it could end up being a pretty calm night overall.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

- Scattered showers and storms tonight/early Friday

A shortwave and accompanying sfc frontal boundary track slowly east through the region tonight and Friday morning, but are generally weakening as they do so. Instability isn't the greatest either especially since these features come through mostly during the diurnal minimum.

Initially this evening scattered showers and storms will be associated with the incoming warm front and higher dew points, then overnight will be linked more to the nearing WI shortwave and cold/occluded front. HRRR guidance suggests best coverage of rain will be during the overnight period especially east of Hwy 131.

Will carry some lingering low (20-30 pct) pops Friday mainly near/east of U.S. 127 and near/south of I-94 since the sfc front stalls out and there is still some lingering sfc instability (SBCapes 500-1000 J/KG). Otherwise decreasing clouds and a warm Friday expected with highs in the upper 70s. May have to consider a risk of patchy fog Friday night in light wind/clear sky regime.

- Dry and Mild Weekend

High pressure moves into the region resulting in dry weather this weekend. An 850mb thermal ridge peaking at +12 to +14C moves overhead Saturday and Sunday resulting in high temperatures into the 80s with plenty of sunshine.

- Active Weather to Start the Work-Week

A deepening longwave trough will eject out of the Rockies at the start of the work week sending a series of shortwaves through the Great Lakes Region. This will result in an active weather pattern through the first half of the week with showers and storms possible.

The first round of storms will move through Monday evening as a front sweeps through the area. Instability looks sufficient ahead of the front to support some showers and storms Monday evening, but the better chance appears to be Tuesday afternoon and evening. As a more potent shortwave moves overhead, a surface low will track through WI into the UP while a trailing cold front sweeps through the state.
Instability will build throughout the day Tuesday ahead of the front while a 40 to 50 knot Low Level Jet noses into Michigan during the evening. Model guidance has yet to come into good agreement therefore confidence remains low, but Tuesday may be a day to monitor the the potential for strong to severe storms in the area.

Temperatures will drop closer to normal (normal highs are around 70)
Wednesday and Thursday following the passage of the front.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 749 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact the terminals this evening with brief drops in visibilities to MVFR or lower possible in any heavier showers/thunderstorms. Cigs and visbys drop to MVFR/IFR areawide after 07z with restrictions continuing into Friday morning as winds calm overnight. MKG has the potential to reach LIFR at times near daybreak due to influence from the lake. Conditions improve over the course of mid to late Friday morning with conditions reaching VFR early Friday afternoon. Southerly winds of 5-10 knots tonight become light overnight and become westerly at 5-10 knots Friday.

MARINE
Issued at 955 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A few showers and storms are possible overnight mainly north of Grand Haven, but this is looking less likely than it did earlier.
Meanwhile, what does look likely is the development of fog overnight. By daybreak, we could be looking at dense fog conditions that persist through late morning. Otherwise, light west winds continue.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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