Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lyons, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:43PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:43 PM EST (22:43 UTC) Moonrise 1:21PMMoonset 11:45PM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 339 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday night..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots. Snow and rain showers likely in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201811160415;;356592 FZUS51 KBUF 152039 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 339 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-160415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lyons, NY
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location: 43.06, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 152107
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
407 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is expected for some
areas before changing to all snow by late tonight; while other areas
will remain all snow for the duration of the storm. Precipitation
will transition to lake effect on Friday and continue through
Saturday followed by scattered snow showers through early next week
and continued cool temperatures.

Near term through Friday
Winter weather headlines are in effect for western and north central
ny today and tonight. Widespread snow accumulations are expected. A
wintry mix will lead to some ice accumulation across the western
southern tier and buffalo southtowns this afternoon into tonight.

High pressure has moved off the gulf of maine this afternoon. This
very cold airmass has led to cool temperatures across the region
this afternoon, ranging from the mid to upper 20s and into the low
30s. The dry conditions will soon end as low pressure takes shape
off the southeast coast this afternoon. A closed upper level trough
will continue to track across the ohio valley while an area of
weaker low pressure transitions to the coast to develop a strong
coastal low. Strong southerly moisture transport will continue this
afternoon and a large swatch of precipitation will continue to move
into western ny this afternoon. The departing airmass will continue
to eat away at the incoming moisture causing the thermal profiles to
dynamically cool. Amdar soundings depict a +1-2 deg warm nose near
cle with nearby observations across NE oh NW pa reporting -fzra ip.

Further north... Web-bulb thermal profiles show a column below
freezing and light snow is expected to begin as moisture moves
northward this afternoon. As of 19z... Light snow has arrived across
the southern half of western ny. A nose of +0c air around 925-850mb
is expected to move northward along the lake erie shoreline and into
the southtowns and genesee valley this afternoon. This will change
the light snow over to a period freezing rain or sleet into the
early evening. Temperatures along the lake erie shoreline are
slightly above freezing and therefore precipitation may turn to
rain.

Light to moderate snow will spread across the rest of western ny
this afternoon as below freezing thermal profiles persist. Light
snow will reach east of lake ontario by tonight. A region of
frontogenesis at 700mb is oriented west to east across south-central
pa noted with high returns on radar. Another weaker region exists on
the leading edge of the precipitation shield, oriented northwest to
southeast from the finger lakes to long island. As the upper low
moves into the lower ohio valley and the coastal low moves off the
delmarva coast, the strongest fgen will move into central ny and
eventually across northern ny tonight. This region also noted by
where the warm air aloft overcomes the cold air will lead to a
period of heavy snow from the southern tier to the finger lakes and
east of lake ontario. This will likely occur between 10pm-4am
tonight. Snowfall rates of near 1- 1.5 in hr are expected during
this time. Temperatures will fall to the 20s to low 30s overnight.

Snow will lose intensity from west to east late tonight early Friday
morning as the upper level trough axis moves over western ny. Snow
accumulations will range from 2-4 inches across the niagara frontier
to 5-9 inches across interior portions of the forecast area. Due to
the wintry mix this afternoon and evening along the lake erie
shoreline, snowfall amounts will be near 1-3 inches along the lake
shore. Similar, lower amounts are also possible along the
niagara river as lesser amounts of precipitation more likely.

Winter weather advisories are in effect along lake erie and the
niagara frontier including monroe and jefferson counties. Winter
storm warnings are in effect for elsewhere.

Another wave will be close behind the departing coastal system and
brief mid-level ridging will move overhead Friday morning. Lingering
moisture will lead to scattered rain and snow showers through the
morning before cold air advection begins behind a passing cold front
by Friday afternoon. Temperatures will fall to near -6c at 850mb and
with southwest winds, lake effect showers will form northeast of the
lakes. Winds will become westerly by Friday evening and lake effect
rain and snow showers will drift southward. Temperatures will be
relatively mild Friday afternoon with highs reaching the upper 30s.

Accumulations of 1-2 inches are expected across the southtowns and
portions of the southern tier by sunset on Friday. Accumulations of
1-3 inches are expected across the tug hill plateau.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Lake effect showers will remain in the lee of lake erie and ontario
on westerly flow. Boundary layer temperatures will remain marginal
for both the p-type to remain mostly frozen, not to mention for
accumulation. That said, in the higher terrain east of the lakes,
some light accumulation will remain possible in the colder air at
altitude.

The next system approaches the area on Saturday in the form of a
weak wave along a cold front. As this wave moves along the eastward
slinking front, some light snow seems likely to develop across the
area in advance of colder air in the post-frontal air mass. Run-to-
run continuity on light efficient QPF seems to be present, so pops
were maintained at likely even with the seemingly trivial qpf.

As colder air settles into the area for the latter half of the
weekend, some lake effect snow showers will be possible in cold
advection, however a dry antecedent air mass and considerable
uncertainty in the wind fiend and shear profiles preclude confidence
in placement intensity of any potential bands.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Broad upper level troughing will continue to dominate the great
lakes and northeastern states through the middle of next week...

resulting in a certainty of continued well below normal temperatures
through Wednesday. Speaking more specifically... We can expect daily
highs to mostly be in the lower to mid 30s... While nightly lows
range from the teens across the north country to the 20s elsewhere.

Such readings will be more typical of mid-winter than of mid to late
november.

In terms of precipitation... The medium range guidance suite remains
in general agreement on one or two additional weak surface troughs
affecting our region between Monday and Tuesday... However considerable
run-to-run and model-to-model differences still exist with respect to
the track and timing of these features. Consequently... The orientation...

strength... And amount of shear in the low level wind field at any given
point also remains much in question. With both of the above in mind...

forecast confidence in the timing and placement of both synoptically-
driven and lake-driven precipitation through the first half of the
period remains on the low side... And as such have kept mostly
broadbrush snow shower chances in place right through Tuesday night.

As we progress through the middle of next week and into the long
thanksgiving holiday weekend... It still appears that an area of
high pressure and attendant drier weather will slide eastward across
our region and then off the atlantic coastline... With a south to
southwesterly return flow of warmer air eventually developing into
our region on the backside of this feature. This said... The exact
timing and duration of this warmup unsurprisingly remain much in
question given continued discrepancies amongst the medium range
guidance. The more consistent ECMWF remains the fastest overall and
most pronounced with this... With one last day of below normal
temperatures on Wednesday finally giving way to warming readings
from thanksgiving day through the first half of next weekend... While
the notably less consistent GFS and gem respectively suggest either
a much shorter-duration or more-delayed warmup. Given the above and
the rather distant vantage point... For now have stuck close to
continuity and a multimodel consensus... Which favor generally dry
conditions... Along with below normal temperatures on Wednesday
moderating some in time for the thanksgiving holiday.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
Ceilings and vsbys will gradually lower to MVFR ifr conditions
as precipitation overspreads the area this afternoon.

Elsewhere,VFR will continue to hold early this afternoon then
conditions will deteriorate this evening across other locations
across western ny (kbuf,kiag, and kroc). Additionally,
precipitation will initially begin as a little wintry mix
(sleet freezing rain) then quickly change over to all snow as
the atmospheric column cools aloft. Expect flight conditions to
lower to ifr or lower with the arrival of the precipitation
across western ny as it moves from SW to NE across the region.

Tonight and into Friday... Expect MVFR ifr conditions with snow still
ongoing across the cwa.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR, but ifr possible east of
both lakes in lake rain and or snow.

Monday... MVFR ifr with a chance of snow showers.

Marine
A coastal low will bring widespread snow which may mix with sleet
and freezing rain at times today and tonight. Any wintry mix will
change to all snow late tonight and into Friday morning. Rain and
snow showers are expected Friday into Friday night as a cold front
moves across the eastern great lakes. The strongest winds will
remain off shore through tonight. Westerly winds increase Friday and
small craft conditions are expected Friday into the weekend.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Friday for nyz007.

Winter storm warning until 10 am est Friday for nyz006-008.

Winter storm warning until 10 am est Friday for nyz004-005-014.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Friday for nyz001>003-
010-011-019-085.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Friday for nyz012-013-020-
021.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Friday to 6 am est Saturday for
lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 1 am est Saturday
for lez020.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 6 am est
Saturday for loz042-043.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Friday to 6 am est
Saturday for loz044-045.

Synopsis... Hsk
near term... Hsk
short term... Fries
long term... Jjr
aviation... Ar
marine... Hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 35 mi43 min SSE 11 G 16 30°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 36 mi43 min 30°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 38 mi43 min SSE 8.9 G 15 29°F 1023.3 hPa (-2.5)15°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi53 min SE 16 G 19 35°F 47°F3 ft1022.9 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY28 mi50 minS 51.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist27°F24°F89%1023 hPa

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE5E4CalmE54CalmN6CalmSE5SE5SE65S4SE5SE7SE6SE7SE8
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1 day agoNW8
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W7NW7W8W8W9
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W75W8W10N5N7N5N5NW5N4NW63
2 days agoCalmS3S6SW9S10SW7SW3S4S7S5W4Calm3CalmCalmSW33W54W5W5W8W8NW10
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.