Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:37PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 3:01 AM EDT (07:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:29AMMoonset 4:56PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 130 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
This afternoon..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers early. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day...then showers likely Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201705222115;;036232 FZUS51 KBUF 221730 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 130 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ043-044-222115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, NY
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location: 43.06, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230619
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
219 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather today through
most of Wednesday with temperatures above normal. Low pressure will
then bring more rain to the region Wednesday night and Thursday with
temperatures closer to normal.

Near term /through today/
A weak ridge of high pressure surface and aloft will continue to
shift over the lower great lakes this morning. Subsidence and drying
associated with this high will continue to support mainly clear
skies. The clear skies and a fairly cool airmass will allow for some
radiational cooling with low temperatures in the upper 40s to around
50 on the lake plains, with low to mid 40s in the cooler sections of
the interior southern tier and lewis county.

The weak surface ridge stretched from the upper ohio valley to new
england will slowly shift northeast. Warm air advection and a weak
mid level shortwave will move northeast across southern ontario with
little direct impact on our area although it will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of the canadian border. While we
will remain dry today, the shortwave will bring some increase in
moisture and cloud cover, with both mid level clouds and diurnal
cumulus developing across the region. Stable lake shadows will allow
more sunshine northeast of lakes erie and ontario. Temperatures will
rebound, with highs in the lower to mid 70s away from lake
influences. Weak synoptic scale flow and strong differential heating
will allow local lake breezes to develop with winds becoming onshore
along all the shorelines in the afternoon, keeping temperatures
cooler within a few miles of the lakes.

Short term /tonight through Thursday night/
Bubble of high pressure becoming centered across new england will
maintain dry weather across the area through the first half of
Wednesday. Overnight lows Tuesday night will fall back into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

High pressure will exit the region Wednesday as a deepening surface
low slowly tracks into the ohio valley. Model tracks differ
slightly, but most of the guidance eventually tracks this low across
ohio Wednesday night and across lake erie on Thursday. Increasing
moisture transport and lift on the front side of the approaching low
will eventually allow precipiation to blossom across the area. Onset
time may be slowed a bit from continuity based on slower track of
approaching surface low. Warm air advection and slower timing of
precipitation onset should allow high temperatures Wednesday to
reach the lower to mid 70s.

Does look like there will be at least a solid 6 to 12 hour period of
fairly steady rain starting late Wednesday in the far west and
filling in across the rest of the area through Thursday. The steady
rain should taper to more showery weather by Thursday night as the
surface low starts to shift east of the area.

Long term /Friday through Monday/
Our region will be under the influence of a progressive... Northern
branch of a split flow during this period. While this will allow for
fairly frequent shower activity... A closed off gomex will keep
rainfall amounts to a minimum. This pattern will also keep
temperatures from straying too far from normal... But on average...

they will tend to run a few degrees above typical late may values.

Breaking this down on a day to day basis...

a stacked storm system over eastern new york Friday morning will
exit across new england during the afternoon and evening. This will
keep some showers in place over our region... Particularly east of
lake ontario where pops will be raised to likely. Temperatures on
Friday will climb into the 60s.

Ridging will build across the lower great lakes late Friday night
and Saturday. While the models are not convinced that dry weather
will prevail during this time frame... Am fairly confident that the
aforementioned ridging and lack of mid level moisture will translate
into fair dry conditions. This should also help Saturday afternoon
temperatures climb into the 70s across most of the western counties.

As the ridge pushes east of our region Sunday and Monday... The next
longwave trough will dig across the upper portions of the
mississippi valley and great lakes region. This will result in
deteriorating conditions... Particularly late Sunday into Monday. In
other words... As it stands now we should be able to get through most
of Sunday before the skies 'open' again. Given the inconsistencies
between the medium range ensembles though... Confidence is lower than
normal.

Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/
A weak ridge of high pressure will build over the lower great lakes
region through today and tonight withVFR. Weak warm advection and
diurnal cumulus will bring some increase in cloud cover as a
disturbance moves north of lake ontario but CIGS will remainVFR
with light southwest winds. The high pressure will continue to bring
vfr and fair weather through tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Weak high pressure will build over the lower great lakes today
through Wednesday, providing light winds and light wave action
through the middle of the week. A storm system will pass over our
region Wednesday night through Friday but winds and waves will
remain below advisory levels.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Smith
near term... Church/hitchcock/smith
short term... Tma
long term... Rsh
aviation... Smith
marine... Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi61 min SSW 7 G 8.9 55°F 1015.2 hPa (-1.1)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 26 mi43 min 53°F 1014.4 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 40 mi71 min S 7.8 G 7.8 47°F 43°F1 ft1014 hPa (-0.9)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 47 mi43 min SSE 8 G 8.9 49°F 1014.4 hPa44°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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NE8
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G13
NE6
SE4
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY24 mi67 minSW 510.00 miFair50°F43°F77%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW14
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W12W11SW6SW6SW6SW6SW5SW6
1 day agoE7E8SE12
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SE11SE14
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S9SE10SE11S12S9S15
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S8S9S7S9SW10SW8SW12SW13
G20
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2 days agoE12E10E11E15E14
G18
E13E9NE8N12NE14
G21
NE13NE14NE12NE13E11E10E10E7E10E7SE4CalmSE6SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.