Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:43PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:56 AM EDT (10:56 UTC) Moonrise 3:57AMMoonset 7:03PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 731 Pm Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear this evening... Then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet...then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 71 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201707220300;;618755 FZUS51 KBUF 212345 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 731 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-220300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, NY
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location: 43.06, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 220904
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
504 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will set up in the vicinity of the lower great
lakes this weekend, bringing periods of unsettled weather and near
normal temperatures through Monday. High pressure will then build
across the region during the middle of next week which will provide
several days of pleasant weather.

Near term through tonight
Regional radars showing a convective complex currently pushing east
across the southern great lakes region. This convection looks to be
focused along a nearly stationary frontal boundary snaked from
northern illinois through central pennsylvania. Nearly all higher
resolution guidance suggesting that this complex will continue to
track toward western new york this morning as gradually veering
profiles nudge the frontal zone a little farther to the north.

General model agreement is for the northern edge of this convection
to clip areas south of the thruway from around mid day into the
afternoon with the highest concentration of showers and
thunderstorms across the western southern tier. Though not
completely out of the question, severe weather threat looks to be
low as main instability axis will be south of the area. The surface
low to the west of the frontal boundary appears to be fairly
progressive, and should push any convection to the east tonight.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday night
On Sunday... A digging mid-level shortwave trough will make its way
southeastward across the great lakes... With its attendant broad surface
low slowly making its way eastward along a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary and into southern ontario and western new york. While the
eastward progression of these features now looks a little bit slower
than it had 24 hours ago... Increasing large-scale lift and moisture
supplied by the shortwave trough surface low should still bring about
a general southwest to northeast increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity through the day... And particularly during the afternoon hours
when increasing diurnally-driven instability will also come into play.

All of this should translate into showers storms eventually becoming
likely across most areas south of lake ontario by mid to late afternoon...

with scattered activity potentially making it as far as the north
country.

As has been previously discussed... There continues to be a risk for
both heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon.

Precipitable water values will remain in the vicinity of 1.5-1.75
inches... Which would be supportive of localized heavy rainfall flood
concerns provided any areas of training cells were to materialize.

In addition... Plenty of shear will also be in place... With 0-6 km
bulk shear values of 40-50 knots in play... And vertical wind profiles
indicative of both speed and directional shear... With a low level
southerly flow underlying an increasingly fast westerly flow at the
mid and upper levels. Such shear would be supportive of at least a
conditional risk for some stronger to severe storms... With the caveat
that this risk will be highly dependent on the amount of instability
that actually develops. At this point the primary severe weather
threats appear to be damaging winds and hail... With the above
mentioned veering wind profiles also supportive of a much smaller
(but also non-zero) risk for an isolated tornado. All of this is in
line with the latest SPC day 2 convective outlook which indicates a
marginal to slight risk of severe storms for our region... And will
thus continue to be advertised within our hazardous weather outlook.

Sunday night the axis of the mid-level trough will settle across
nearby southern ontario... With its attendant surface wave consequently
shifting into north-central new york. As a result... We can expect
fairly widespread shower activity and some embedded thunderstorms
to progress across our region from west to east... With diminishing
instability generally supporting both a decrease in thunder coverage
as well as a diminishing potential for stronger storms over time.

Monday and Monday night the main mid-level trough will slide further
eastward into new england... While shunting the main surface wave out
into the gulf of maine. Consequently... We can expect scattered to
numerous showers and storms to gradually diminish from west to east
through the course of Monday and Monday night... With dry and quiet
weather then following for the last 24 hours of the period as large
canadian high pressure first settles directly across our region on
Tuesday... Then slowly drifts off into new england Tuesday night.

With respect to temperatures and humidity levels... After one more
day of humid and seasonably warm weather on Sunday... Cooler and
notably drier more comfortable canadian-sourced air will overspread
our region through the rest of the period. More specifically... This
will result in highs of around 80 on Sunday falling back to the lower
to mid 70s for both Monday and Tuesday... While the elevated dewpoints
of recent days eventually give way to much more comfortable readings
in the mid and upper 50s.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
High pressure lingering across new england should promote another
day of mainly dry and quiet weather on Wednesday... Before another
pronounced shortwave trough and associated weak cool front cross the
region during the Wednesday night-Thursday time frame... And bring
the potential for another round of scattered showers and storms.

Following the passage of this system... Surface-based ridging and
drier air then looks to build back into our region for Thursday
night and Friday... Offering a return to quieter and mainly dry
weather to close out the period.

As for temperatures and humidity levels... These will both rebound
to near-normal midsummer levels on Wednesday as the southwesterly
return flow between the departing high and approaching cool front
advects warmer air and increasing amounts of moisture back into
our region. After that... Little change in either is then expected
for the rest of the week... As the cool front will usher in little
to no change in airmass.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will remain across the region early this morning with
mainlyVFR conditions. The only exception is that there is a chance
for valley fog to develop at jhw through 12z. The northern edge of a
convective complex currently pushing through far southern lower
michigan and northern indiana will track along a stalled frontal
boundary with the core of this likely to pass south of buf-roc
around mid-day. Expect mainlyVFR conditions north of this with MVFR
or lower in showers and thunderstorms at jhw.

Outlook...

tonight and Sunday...VFR MVFR with some showers and thunderstorms.

Monday... MainlyVFR but with a chance of showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Marine
A frontal boundary is expected to stall near the lower great lakes
this weekend with chances of showers and storms becoming a threat,
but winds waves are expected to remain on the light side.

Tides coastal flooding
As low pressure approaches our region Sunday and Sunday evening...

a low-level easterly to east-northeasterly flow will briefly
strengthen across lake ontario... With this potentially getting
strong enough to generate some lakeshore flooding concerns along
the south shore of the lake from roughly niagara county east to
monroe county. While confidence in the exact orientation... Strength...

and duration of the stronger winds remains too low for the issuance
of a lakeshore flood watch at this point... This potential will
need to be closely monitored over the next 24-36 hours.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Tma
short term... Jjr
long term... Jjr
aviation... Tma
marine... Tma
tides coastal flooding... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi56 min SSW 5.1 G 8 69°F 1013.5 hPa (-0.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 26 mi38 min 67°F 1012.6 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 40 mi66 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 73°F1 ft1011.9 hPa (-0.3)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 47 mi38 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 67°F 1011.9 hPa61°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY24 mi62 minSW 39.00 miFair66°F64°F93%1013 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W5W4W56N5NW8NW4N8NW7NW10NW10NW8N6CalmCalmNW3W4W4SW4W3CalmCalmSW3
1 day agoSW4SW5W5SW5SW5W4NE17N10E5SW6S9SW11SW10SW5W3N3CalmCalmCalmSW3W6W5W3SW4
2 days agoSW5SW7SW7SW7SW6SW10W7W10W11W11W10W10W8W9W8SW6W4W5W5W3W4SW3SW4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.