Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 2:44 PM   Moonset 2:26 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1205 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
This afternoon - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - North winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 181813 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 213 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon inland from the lakes. Dry weather returns areawide tonight which lasts through Tuesday. It will also become unseasonably warm with temperatures climbing well above normal.
Unsettled weather returns by mid-week and turning progressively cooler.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Breaks developing in cloud cover the afternoon across western New York. Instability will continue to build inland from the lakes with scattered coverage of showers and isolated thunder. The best chance for convection will be from the interior Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes. Overall cell motion will be slow within a weak flow so heavy downpours are certainly possible.

Any lingering convection will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating early this evening. After that, quiet and dry weather will take hold. Lingering low-level moisture due to the will allow for some fog formation overnight, especially across western New York. Expect overnight lows in the 50s.

After some early morning fog and stratus, mainly dry weather is expected Sunday as a mid and upper level ridge starts to build overhead. There will be an outside chance for some diurnally driven scattered showers across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes with a weak lingering surface convergent boundary in place. High temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mainly dry weather expected this period as mid and upper level ridge builds overhead, while elongated surface ridge remains anchored in place, stretching from the Mid Atlantic coast to the New England coast. With very weak synoptic flow in place, expect developing onshore flow with lake breezes pushing inland both days that will keep areas along and near the lakeshores a bit cooler than inland areas.

The only small chances for any precip will be: Sunday during peak heating with a weak lingering surface convergent boundary lying across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region where a few scattered diurnally driven showers may bubble up. On Monday, humidity levels start to rise a bit more with a deeper southwesterly flow becoming established as mid and upper level ridge axis shifts just to our east. Strong diurnal heating combined with the increased moisture may be enough to spark a few showers along any aforementioned lake breeze boundaries. Confidence is low at this point of this occurring, so capped PoPs below SChc for now. Otherwise, most areas remain dry through the period.

The main story will be the warmth. Rising heights aloft associated with mid and upper level ridge building overhead, a continued south/southwest low level flow, and a good deal of sunshine will help boost temperatures to well above average levels by the start of the new work week. Expect highs Sunday mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Unfortunately, the strong mid and upper level ridge will start to weaken by Tuesday as successive shortwaves traversing the northern periphery of the ridge start to knock it down. That said, outside of any diurnally driven activity (mainly along and inland of any lake breeze boundaries), which at this time looks to be minimal, better chances for showers and storms will remain north of the Canadian border where the better forcing will stay for time being. It will be even warmer on Tuesday with increasing southwesterly flow promoting better diurnal mixing, which will help boost afternoon highs into the low to mid 80s across the bulk of western and northcentral NY, with a few upper 80s not out of the question for the traditionally warmer spots across the Genesee Valley and lake plains. It will be a bit cooler along the lakeshores.

As is typical this far out in time, model guidance differs some on the timing of the strong cold front that has been advertised to impact the area in the mid to late week timeframe. At this point, front looks to cross the area sometime Wednesday night or Thursday.
This will yield another very warm summer-like day on Wednesday, as highs will once again soar into the 80s for much of the area. That said, precipitation chances will increase Wednesday afternoon as a lead shortwave and associated prefrontal trough approach the area ahead of the actual cold front, with the best chances for showers and storms across western NY during the second half of the day.

Unsettled weather can then be expected as waves of low pressure moving northward along the slowly eastward progressing cold front bring periods of showers and storms to our region for Wednesday night and Thursday, before high pressure builds back in providing a dry finish to the work week. As noted in the previous discussion, a cooler airmass is expected to filter in across the northeastern U.S.
in the wake of the cold fropa, however there is still model discrepancy in just how cool that airmass will be, as well as the exact timing of its arrival. All this said, just using pattern recognition alone lends to fairly high confidence that cooler weather is on the way for the latter half of the work week and potentially into the upcoming holiday weekend. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm will develop this afternoon across Western NY. The convection will be mainly focused across the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes, with low confidence in any storm impacting any TAF site.

Any lingering convection will diminish with the loss of daytime heating early this evening. There will be some fog possible overnight which may bring some impacts with LIFR-IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR-MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Thursday...Mainly VFRR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A highly saturated air mass will continue over the lower Great Lakes tonight allowing for fog and stratus to develop over the lakes. Poor visibility conditions may redevelop and become widespread tonight into Sunday morning on Lake Erie and the western end of Lake Ontario with light flow.

Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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