Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday August 17, 2017 12:41 AM CDT (05:41 UTC) Moonrise 1:31AMMoonset 4:35PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 1105 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning...
Rest of tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog through the night. Showers likely around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Slight chance of showers through around midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..West wind 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ644 Expires:201708171000;;503146 FZUS53 KMKX 170406 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1105 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-171000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI
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location: 43.06, -87.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 170409
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1109 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017

Update
The activity, such that it was, has settled down over the last few
hours. The best convection remains rooted close to the warm front,
but it's moving out of the better CAPE and into an area of cin.

The showers continue to exhibit supercell characteristics, though
weakening, with persistent rotation. But, we haven't received any
reports of wind all evening. The storms did evolve into a complex
over rock and southwest jefferson counties, producing a localized
region of very heavy rainfall. Edgerton too the brunt of that
with likely over 2 inches of rain occuring in a short time.

More regeneration of showers and possible storms will occur over
southeast wisconsin over the next few hours, but should lift
mostly out of the area by 2 am or so.

Aviation(06z tafs)
MVFR ifr CIGS will spread across the area overnight in the wake of
a warm front pushing north through the area. Conditions should
improve toVFR across much of the area by mid morning on
Thursday, but lower MVFR CIGS will return in the afternoon as
strong low pressure approaches from the west. Look for increasing
south to southwest winds Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as
the low pushes through the great lakes.

Prev discussion (issued 825 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017)
update...

our overall lack of decent CAPE and mid level lapse rates has kept
this activity more as rain showers, though heavy in spots, vs
thunderstorms. We've had a few storms goose up to produce
lightning, but it's been very quiet. Our main concern is the combo
of low lcls and increasing low level wind shear along and north
of the approaching warm front to the south. This has caused the
storms to rotate, raising the concern for funnels or a quick weak
spin-up tornado. Or, at least a focused downburst of winds.

Any tornado that develops would be short lived and weak. The
chance is low, but it is there. Rap analysis now has 30kts of
0-1km shear poking into southern rock walworth counties, and 25kts
over a larger area to the north. The sr helicity increases this
evening as well... Along that warm front. Despite the lack of
thunder, this activity needs to be watched closely. Things should
settle down as the evening progresses, especially toward midnight,
with CIN increasing and CAPE continuing to fall.

Marine...

strong south to southwest winds develop by Thursday afternoon in
the wake of a passing surface trough. Those winds will continue to
veer to the southwest and west into Thursday night. A small craft
advisory will be issued for the entire area to capture these
increasing winds.

Prev discussion... (issued 534 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017)
update...

convection along the sfc warm front continues to lift north across
the area. A secondary, lake effect boundary that stretched from
chicago, northwest into walworth county has caused the warm
frontal convection to rapidly increase for a time over rock and
walworth counties late this afternoon. These may die back down a
bit as it moves away from that feature, into less favorable air.

The previous discussion is excellent with respect to the overall
threats for tonight. We are in a rather weak CAPE lapse rate,
higher shear environment. These does lend itself to weaker storms
with potential rotation. These have to be watched closely for any
quick weak tornado spin-ups. It's very low end stuff, but a
threat.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

look for conditions to gradually lower to MVFR ifr CIGS vsbys this
evening as storms rotate north across the area overnight. These
lower conditions will persist through much of the TAF period. The
east to southeast winds will shift to the south after midnight,
then southwest Thursday afternoon.

Prev discussion... (issued 310 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017)
short term...

tonight and Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Synoptic forcing for ascent is maximized tonight and includes both
jet-level divergence and increasing dcva. A trowal (trough of warm
air aloft) will bring some focused mid-level theta-e advection
and a frontogenesis response. Thunderstorms have already initiated
along the low-level warm front across northeast iowa and northern
illinois, and they will continue to push north into the area this
evening as the front lifts north. Localized heavy rainfall
remains possible in any thunderstorm, given the favorable moisture
parameters. A secondary concern for this evening is the low-end
tornado potential associated with any thunderstorms located near
the warm front. The front will provide just enough increase above
the ambient low-level shear to provide 100 to 200 m^2 s^2 of
effective helicity this evening, which could be enough to induce
rotation in any robust updrafts that may develop. This is
considered to be a very low risk, but one worth paying attention
to nevertheless. The upper trough will be working through the
western great lakes on Thursday, resulting in mostly cloudy skies
with chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Went a bit
below guidance for high temperatures considering this.

Thursday night through Saturday... Forecast confidence high.

The occluded low will be centered over upper mi at 00z Fri and
will continue newd into ontario, canada for fri. A few instability
showers could linger Thu eve. The stratocumulus field may continue
through the night and decrease Fri am. A shortwave trough will
then approach in wnwly flow aloft with the most focused area of
pva and lift to pass across ia and il, thus only slight chances of
showers over far SRN wi for Fri aft-eve. Weak high pressure will
then settle over the region for sat-sat nt. Seasonal temps and
humidity is expected during this period.

Long term... Sunday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence
medium.

Swly sfc flow will support warm and humid conditions for sun-mon
followed by the cold front Mon nt-tue am. Nly sfc flow and
comfortable temps and humidity for wed.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

the first round of showers and thunderstorms will push from
southwest to northeast this evening into early tonight. Briefly
lower CIGS and vsbys are possible in the heavier storms.

Additional chances for showers and storms are expected around or a
little after midnight. Ceilings will drop later tonight, likely
lowering to ifr levels across northern and western portions of the
area. Visibilities may lower a bit as well, but there is
uncertainty. A low-level jet at 2 kft should increase to around 25
knots tonight, bringing us close to low-level wind shear
criteria. Southwest to west winds will increase late tomorrow into
tomorrow night with surface gusts to around 25 knots.

Marine...

small craft conditions are anticipated north of port washington
later tonight into Thursday afternoon. Small craft conditions are
likely once again for Thursday night into Friday, when gusts of 25
to 30 knots are possible. Another small craft advisory will likely
be required during this time.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 1 pm Thursday to 7 am cdt Friday for
lmz644>646.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Thursday to 7 am cdt Friday for
lmz643.

Update... Davis
tonight Thursday and aviation marine... Spm
Thursday night through Wednesday... Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 5 mi32 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 72°F
45013 7 mi63 min ESE 9.7 G 12 72°F 72°F1009.4 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 23 mi62 min E 4.1 G 8 72°F 1010.5 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 34 mi42 min S 15 G 27 72°F 1009.5 hPa (-2.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 49 mi62 min WSW 11 G 16 73°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI6 mi47 minESE 410.00 miOvercast70°F66°F88%1009.5 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI8 mi50 minSE 59.00 miOvercast74°F72°F94%1008.5 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi67 minESE 55.00 miRain70°F68°F94%1009.8 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI22 mi49 minS 87.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--E4E6E8E8E6E6E8E6E8E6E6E5E5SE5E4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN7N5NE3NE5N8NE12E6
G14
NE10N7E7E5E5E5NE5NE5NE4CalmNE4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmE8E5E6E6E7E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.