Saturday, January20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:51PM Saturday January 20, 2018 8:47 PM CST (02:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:19AMMoonset 9:29PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 705 Pm Cst Sat Jan 20 2018
Tonight..South wind 5 knots becoming southwest in the late evening and overnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Areas of fog early in the morning. Waves nearly calm.
Sunday..South wind 5 knots becoming southeast late in the morning, then backing east early in the afternoon becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Chance of drizzle through the day. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Patchy fog through the night. Chance of rain through around midnight. Rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Monday..East wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:201801210500;;751251 FZUS53 KMKX 210105 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-210500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI
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location: 43.06, -87.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 202358 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
558 pm cst Sat jan 20 2018

Update
Not much change in the thinking from the previous discussion. The
main concern is the potential for dense fog, which may be freezing
fog in some areas. The freezing line will likely set up somewhere
across southern wisconsin with temperatures above freezing across
far southern wisconsin. Cross over temperatures were upper 20s to
just above freezing in a north-south gradient, and we will have
weak warm air advection overnight so lows could be a tad higher
than those cross over temps. There is a very small chance for
drizzle freezing drizzle but a better chance for rain showers
Sunday afternoon when there are better upper level dynamics.

Aviation(00z tafs)
See discussion above about low temperatures and potential for
freezing fog. Main concern for freezing fog will be north of taf
sites but will have to watch how pavement temperatures respond to
frozen subsurface temperatures.

There is a wall of stratus approaching from the south. Ceilings
and visibilities are expected to drop rapidly as it moves across
southern wi overnight. Ifr lifr conditions are likely after
midnight and through Sunday morning. Conditions may improve
somewhat for a time Sunday afternoon.

Prev discussion (issued 312 pm cst Sat jan 20 2018)
short term...

low pressure currently developing over the southern plains will
gradually push northeast, resulting in weak WAA across southern
wi through tonight and Sunday. The gentle southerly flow will
help advect the stratus deck currently over southern ia and
central il into the area, reaching southern wi sometime around
midnight. The waa, coupled with overcast skies for a portion of
the night, will help buoy temperatures tonight, especially in the
south where clouds will arrive first. I don't this our southern
counties will fall below freezing, but the freezing line will
likely set up somewhere across the cwa. With this backdrop, there
are 2 primary concerns with this forecast. I
the first concern is for the potential for fog or freezing fog.

Increasing low level moisture and very weak surface winds will
likely result in some fog across the area. Questions remain with
regards to how bad the fog will get, but may meso models are
showing overnight visibilities less than 1sm across much of the
area, and the SREF is showing probabilities in excess of 80% for
visibilites to fall below 1sm. Therefore, at least patchy fog
seems likely, and the potential for more widespread or dense fog
is indeed on the table. Obviously, if fog develops in an area with
temps below freezing, freezing fog is possible.

The second concern is for the potential for some freezing
rain drizzle. Eventually, the low level WAA and moisture will
become sufficient for precipitation, with most guidance pushing
the precip into far southern wi sometime around sunrise. As the
precip arrives in the morning, there may be a narrow window in
which temperatures will be cool enough to allow precipitation to
freeze on some surfaces. However, uncertainty remains as to when
exactly the precip will arrive. Moreover, if precip arrives early
enough to support freezing rain drizzle, it will be very light and
only last for an hour or two at a given location.

Precip will gradually push north and increase in coverage through
the day Sunday. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the upper
30s, resulting in a dreary january day.

Sunday night through Tuesday... Forecast confidence medium.

The areas of fog and drizzle on Sun will continue into Sun eve.

More organized pcpn will then arrive late Sun nt as the deepening
low pressure area moves into SRN ia NRN mo, and the diffluent and
divergent upper low begins to affect SRN wi. Low to mid level
warm advection and frontogenesis will also increase during this
time. Rain is mostly expected but sfc temps and road temps will
likely be near freezing toward central wi thus some light ice
accum could occur.

A mid and upper level dry slot will then move into the area for a
period of time in the afternoon with the occluded low to then
track across SE wi from late afternoon into the evening. A low
level trowal and sfc trough will hang back from the center of the
low bringing more pcpn with rain changing to snow. 1 to 3 inches
of snow accum is forecast Mon nt. Nnwly winds and cold advection
will increase late Mon nt and continue into tue.

Long term... Wednesday through Saturday... Forecast confidence
medium.

A progressive, yet meridional pattern will continue for this
period. A couple shortwave troughs within NW flow aloft will
reinforce polar air for Tue nt-wed. Upper ridging will then
develop for thu-fri as a longwave trough moves from the WRN usa
into the great plains. The longwave trough and a cold front will
then bring chances of rain snow for sat. Above normal temps will
return with the approach of the longwave trough for thu-sat.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

confidence remains high that a low stratus deck currently over
southern ia and central il will push into wi overnight. We will
likely see a dramatic drop fromVFR and ifr lifr within a few
hours, but given some uncertainty on the exact timing, I didn't
feel comfortable putting that tight of a drop in the tafs quite
yet. Most high res guidance also showing visibilities tanking as
this stratus deck moves in.

Beyond the very low CIGS and vsbys, some concern remains for very
light freezing drizzle or freezing fog Sunday morning. However,
temps will be very close to freezing in southern wisconsin, and
may not actually make it to the freezing mark at the TAF sites.

Given just how close I expect temps to be to freezing, and the
fact that the best precip chances don't move into the area until
the afternoon, so i've got pretty low confidence that fog will
freeze or that freezing precip will materialize at the TAF sites.

Marine... A small craft advisory may be needed for mon-tue. Brisk
ely winds on Mon will turn sly with building waves. The passage of
low pressure and a cold front will then turn the winds to brisk
nnwly Mon nt into tue. Waves will build once again with the nly
fetch across lake mi.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Marquardt
tonight Sunday and aviation marine... Bsh
Sunday night through Saturday... Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 5 mi38 min SW 6 G 7 39°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 23 mi68 min Calm G 1 35°F 1015.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 34 mi48 min SW 4.1 G 4.1 40°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 49 mi68 min SSW 6 G 7 38°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI6 mi63 minN 010.00 miClear34°F26°F75%1014.6 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI8 mi56 minSSW 310.00 miFair37°F30°F79%1015.2 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi2 hrsSW 410.00 miClear37°F30°F75%1014.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI22 mi55 minSW 310.00 miFair36°F30°F79%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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W10W6W4W4W5W7W5SW3W3CalmNE6E7CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW13SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.