Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 5:06 AM   Moonset 7:56 PM

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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 105 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am cdt this morning through this evening - .
Rest of tonight - East wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning. Tuesday - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. Wednesday - West wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then backing east late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 070308 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1008 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening, a few of which could be strong to severe.

- Small craft conditions are expected Tuesday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

UPDATE
Issued 1007 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Southeasterly winds will slowly increase through tonight as a warm front approaches southern Wisconsin. This warm front is expected to produce mainly showers going into Tuesday morning, but may continue to produce lightning along its initial convection, especially in southwestern Wisconsin. Regardless, expect southeasterly gusty winds and showers to be the main concern through Tuesday morning.

Late Tuesday morning, elevated instability may work into the area behind the warm front, allowing for a few thunderstorms to develop along the Lake Michigan counties before residual lift from the warm front exits the region Tuesday afternoon.
Questions on afternoon convection remain, with some indications that an occluded front may form a boundary on which to fire convection across southwestern Wisconsin this afternoon.
Meanwhile, other triggers would be the amount of insolation available to increase surface based CAPE during the day. Bulk shear increases into the evening hours as the occluded front progresses eastward, but the main concerns for severe weather remain hail and gusty winds.

MH

SHORT TERM
Issued 357 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Quiet weather across southern Wisconsin this evening as high pressure across the upper Great Lakes continues to influence the region with overnight lows generally in the mid 50s.

Attention remains on the shower and thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. A mid-level shortwave trough over the northern Great Plains will propagate eastward this evening and overnight.
Strong positive vorticity advection combined with divergent flow and increasing southwesterly wind speeds at 500hPa will lead to strong synoptic scale ascent in the mid to upper levels.
A mature surface low pressure center currently situated across the Great Plains associated with the upper trough will also propagate eastward overnight. The mature to decaying low and associated warm/occluded front will begin to enter southwestern Wisconsin around 5am with showers and thunderstorms expected along the boundary (80-90%). This initial line of storms are not expected to be severe. Additional development is possible behind the front as low level winds become southwesterly and strong 500hPa cold air advection steepens mid-level lapse rates to 7-8 C/km. These aspects combined with CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg will lead to an environment favorable for large hail. A well- mixed boundary layer identified by model forecast soundings may also lead to some gusty winds at the surface with thunderstorms that are able to develop.

Overall, the severe threat for tomorrow afternoon is marginal at this time. The synoptic and mesoscale environments appear to be conducive to severe weather in afternoon, but this is dependent on the ability of cloud coverage to clear out of southern Wisconsin. Current model guidance suggests dry air in the low levels may enter southwestern Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon to help erode cloud coverage. Given this and southwesterly winds behind the front, thinking that southwestern Wisconsin is the area most likely to recover from the morning's convection and thus most likely to see strong to severe storms.

Falkinham

LONG TERM
Issued 357 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

The 500 mb low over the Central Plains should slowly shift east southeast into the area Wednesday into Thursday morning, then merge with a trough and shift to the east southeast of the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Surface cyclogenesis should develop to the south of the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night per EPS/GEFS/CMC ensemble output, with the low shifting to the east of the region Thursday into Thursday night.

This should keep most of the surface-based convection to the south of the area, as well as most of the severe weather risk. There could still be some elevated storms that develop later Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night that produce small hail, as there should be at least weak elevated CAPE with decent effective layer shear. The easterly flow in the low levels later Wednesday into Wednesday night should maintain a cap to any low level air parcels.

Differential CVA with the passing 500 mb low/trough and 850/700 mb frontogenesis response should bring rounds of showers and some storms mainly Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before slowly moving east Thursday afternoon and night. Ensemble QPF is generally in the 0.50 to 0.70 inch range for this period.

500 mb Cluster Analysis from ensembles shows an anomalous trough lingering over or east of the region Friday through the upcoming weekend. This should keep the area in a general northwest flow aloft for the most part, with a 500 mb trough shifting southeast through the region Saturday. A cold frontal passage may accompany this feature. Left PoPs going for chances for showers and a few thunderstorms for the Friday night into Saturday period.
Temperatures should remain near seasonal normals into Saturday.

Trends are more uncertain for Sunday into Monday, so left NBM PoPs and temperatures for now.

Wood

AVIATION
Issued 1007 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions expected through tonight into early Tuesday morning, with increasing southeasterly winds as a warm front approaches the area. Showers and thunderstorms along this warm front are expected to progress from southwest to northeast across southern Wisconsin starting early Tuesday morning and exiting into Lake Michigan early Tuesday afternoon. Ceilings are expected to range between 1500 and 2500 ft within these showers and thunderstorms, with IFR conditions expected near Lake Michigan. IFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday afternoon at SBM/MKE/ENW. Thunderstorm redevelopment is possible Tuesday afternoon across southwestern Wisconsin, especially in areas that see clearing skies after the warm front lifts out of the area.

MH

MARINE
Issued 357 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

East to northeast winds will continue across Lake Michigan this afternoon and overnight into Tuesday as high pressure continues to influence the Great Lakes region. Winds will begin to accelerate and take on a southerly component by Tuesday morning, mainly over the southern half of the lake as low pressure across the Great Plains propagates northeastward towards the Great Lakes. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 7am to 7pm on Tuesday due to these accelerating winds. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the low Tuesday morning and is expected to impact Lake Michigan by the afternoon.

Winds will turn southwesterly Tuesday night as the low pressure moves eastward before becoming northeasterly Wednesday afternoon as another area of low pressure propagates towards the Great Lakes region. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, mainly across the southern half of the lake as the second area of low pressure moves eastward, south of Lake Michigan. High pressure then builds in briefly on Friday.

Falkinham

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645...7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Tuesday.

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