Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:30PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 9:43 PM CST (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 11:32PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 905 Pm Cst Wed Nov 14 2018
Rest of tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight veering west with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of snow after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ644 Expires:201811151100;;319465 FZUS53 KMKX 150306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-151100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI
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location: 43.06, -87.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 150231
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
831 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018

Update
The nighttime microphysics channel on goes-16 is picking up lake
effect clouds redeveloping over the far southern basin of lake
michigan this evening. It's looking like we'll see some of those
clouds push inland later this evening and through the overnight
hours. Otherwise, the forecast is on track and no meaningful
changes are needed.

Marine
The combination of strong high pressure over the central and
eastern great lakes, coupled with a low pressure system moving
east along the u.S. Canadian border is bringing increasing
southerly winds to the lake michigan waters, especially over the
north half of the lake. This will continue into Thursday night as
that low to the west will move very slowly east, not getting east
of lake michigan until late Thursday night or very early Friday
morning. The current forecast is in good shape with no major
changes needed.

Prev discussion (issued 504 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018)
update...

it appears the delta-t over the lake has diminished and as a
result much of the lake cloudiness has eroded. So, have backed off
on the amount of clouds expected tonight from the previous
forecast. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is in good shape
under quiet high pressure.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

the concern for a period of MVFR CIGS pushing into southeast
wisconsin from lake michigan later tonight into Thursday morning
has diminished. The latest trends from satellite show the clouds
rapidly eroding. But, we'll have to keep an eye on any renewed
expansion overnight. That doesn't seem likely given the lower
delta-t over the lake. Other than the lake clouds, expectVFR
conditions through the TAF period. There will be lower cigs
heading toward chicago later Thursday morning into Thursday night.

But, those lower CIGS should stay south of the state line.

Prev discussion... (issued 212 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018)
short term...

tonight and Thursday... Forecast confidence is high.

A sfc high over SRN lake mi will track to new england by 12z thu.

Meanwhile, a strong upper low over the lower ms river valley will
track along the ohio river valley through Thu eve. The majority
of the clouds and pcpn will remain to the south of wi; however,
lake effect clouds will affect the ERN portions of the lake
counties tnt as the boundary layer flow becomes sely. High temps
in the 30s today, but near 40f on Thu via sly winds and warm
advection.

Long term...

Thursday night through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium:
a trough will move through Thursday night, dragging a weak cold
front through southern wisconsin. Models are spitting out a little
precipitation as this system moves through. There is some question
as to whether there could be a little freezing drizzle due to loss
of saturation in the ice crystal formation zone. Overall though,
there appears to be ample saturation where there is enough lift
for precip, so kept the precip type mainly as light snow. Only
expecting a dusting at best.

Another shortwave is expected to move through Friday night into
early Saturday, bringing a chance for snow to the forecast area.

Models continue to flop around a bit... But seem to slowly be
converging on a solution. The southern forecast area will have the
best chance to see some light accumulations, with models ranging
from around a dusting to 2 inches. Still a lot of time for the
details of this one to change.

Temps a little below normal Friday will cool to around 10 degrees
below normal Saturday behind the departing system.

Sunday and through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium:
overall, it looks dry Sunday through Wednesday. High pressure
should be in control for much of the time. Models do show the
potential for a weak wave or two during this time period, but not
enough agreement among models to go with much in the way of precip
chances.

Temps around 10 degrees below normal Sunday and Monday are
expected to recover to near normal by Wednesday.

Aviation(21z tafs)... The boundary layer flow will become sely
resulting in broken MVFR lake effect clouds over the ERN portions
of the lake counties tonight, possibly continuing into Thu am.

Farther inland from lake mi,VFR conditions will prevail along
with light winds through thu.

Marine... A sfc high over SRN lake mi will move to new england
tnt. As the ridge moves east and a trough of low pressure slowly
moves ewd across SRN canada and the NRN great plains, breezy sly
winds will develop over the NRN half of lake mi for tonight into
thu eve. The trough of low pressure and cold front will then pass
thu nt with winds shifting to breezy wly winds over the entire
lake. Breezy wnwly winds will then prevail on fri. The winds
should remain below gale force during this time.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Davis
tonight Thursday and aviation marine... Gehring
Thursday night through Wednesday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 5 mi34 min SE 7 G 8.9 33°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 23 mi64 min S 8 G 9.9 33°F 1030.8 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 34 mi44 min SE 9.9 G 12 34°F 1029.8 hPa (-1.4)
45187 41 mi44 min 35°F 44°F1 ft
45186 49 mi44 min SSE 9.7 35°F 44°F1 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI6 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair23°F19°F86%1030.5 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI8 mi52 minWNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds26°F19°F75%1031.1 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi59 minSE 310.00 miClear19°F17°F93%1030.1 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI22 mi51 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy25°F19°F81%1031.5 hPa

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5NW5NW6W5W5NW4NW4W3CalmCalmN7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE5SE3SE3SE4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW8NW10
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2 days agoW8NW11NW7NW9NW10NW9NW3N4NW3W3N5NW12
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.