Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brookfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:16PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 8:56 AM CDT (13:56 UTC) Moonrise 7:15AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 305 Am Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..North to northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering east by midnight. Gusts to 20 knots. Slight chance of rain through around midnight, then chance of rain and snow after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet building 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ644 Expires:201703281630;;199308 FZUS53 KMKX 280805 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 305 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ643-644-281630-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brookfield, WI
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location: 43.06, -88.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 281123 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
623 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Update
Aviation(12z tafs)
Clearing will continue slowly from the north today. Mainly ifr
ceilings are currently in the south and MVFR north. The MVFR
should continue to progress southward this morning. Most places
should beVFR by late afternoon into early evening as the clouds
exit to the south.

Seeing a few areas of lower visibilities early this morning,
which should improve by mid-morning as daytime mixing increases.

Model soundings show more low clouds and/or patchy fog could form
again by later tonight ahead of an approaching wave.

Prev discussion (issued 308 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence... High
high pressure will build in from the north today and tonight,
bringing decreasing clouds from north to south. Should see mostly
clear skies across the forecast area by this evening.

Main issue today will be the timing of the departure of clouds and
resultant impact on temps. Think there should be enough Sun later in
the day (especially in the north) to help temps get up toward or a
touch above normal values for late march. It will be cooler near
lake michigan though due to onshore winds.

High clouds will likely increase late tonight in at least the west
ahead of an approaching trough. Near normal temps are likely
tonight.

Wednesday... Forecast confidence... High
upper level ridging builds into the region ahead of a deep cutoff
low over the southern plains. We will sit in a generally diffluent
region ahead of the low, so good jet level divergance will be
realized throughout the day. Most guidance also shows a weak
shortwave pushing though on Wednesday afternoon just behind the
ridge axis.

Associated surface low will begin its treck northeast on
Wednesday. With high rh, strong waa, and considerable fgen showing
up at 700mb in all models, it looks like the mid level portion of
the warm front extending from the low will push into southern
wisconsin on Wednesday afternoon. However, everything below about
700mb is dry in all models through 00z. Therefore am not bullish
on precip chances in the afternoon. That said, both GFS and euro
do show some light QPF before 00z, and I suppose I can't
completely rule out precip chances, so will stick with slight
chance pops in the afternoon in the southwest.

Long term...

Wednesday night through Friday... Forecast confidence... Medium
the amplified upper level trough and surface low pressure system
will track across the upper mississippi valley. Models in good
agreement showing ample jet level divergence and DCVA aloft
through Thursday as the surface low tracks toward the region. The
mid level warm front extending from the surface low will remain
over southern wisconsin through Thursday evening as the low
passes to the south of the state. Given the good consensus,
comfortable going with high pops on Thursday.

There remains some disagreement after 00z Fri regarding exactly
where the low will pass and just how fast the low will leave the
area. On this evening's runs, the GFS brings the low through
northern il and pushes it out of the area the quickest. The
euro/canadian bring it though central il, and the nam, which
appears to be an outlier, brings it though southern il and pushes
the system through the region much more slowly. Therefore will
gradually tail off pops into Friday morning. Models still showing
a thermal profile supporting a snow or rain-snow mix to start the
day on Thursday before switching to all rain by Thursday
afternoon.

Nw flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will build into
the region behind the low on Friday, bringing gradually clearing
skies and seasonally cool temperatures. Blended guidance seems to
be too warm on Friday when compared to the raw model output,
likely due to MOS forecasts trending toward climatology. Since
we'll be right behind the low pressure system, will go with a
forecast a bit closer to the raw model output.

Saturday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence... Low
another shortwave will pass through the region Saturday night, but
the associated surface low will be over southern canada. Some
light rain may be possible on Sunday, but overall little impact on
southern wi. Then, by the beginning of next week, yet another
deep cutoff low will move northeast out of the southern plains.

Considerable disagreement on exactly where it will move to, but
it does look like a strong low pressure system will be moving
somewhere through the midwest, and this will be enough to support
up to chance pops in our cwa.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

ifr CIGS have developed across most of southern wi now and will
generally stay there until mid to late morning (especially south of
madison and milwaukee). Could see mainly MVFR across the northern
forecast area. Ridging will eventually bring clearing from north to
south across the area late this morning and into the early
afternoon. CIGS may fluctuate between ifr and MVFR close to lake
michigan until 15z today, before gradually improving with the dry
air intrusion. Look for rather steady north to northeast winds at
10kts or less during the TAF period. Some light fog is expected
through mid morning, but the solid overcast clouds should keep it
from getting too dense.

Marine...

gusty winds and some higher waves are likely from late Wednesday
night through Friday as low pressure moves through the region. A
small craft advisory will probably be needed during this period.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Ddv
today/tonight and aviation/marine... Ddv
Wednesday through Monday... Bsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 12 mi37 min N 8.9 G 9.9 40°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi77 min N 2.9 G 6 41°F 1020.3 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 36 mi57 min NNE 11 G 13 39°F 1019.3 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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N4
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G17
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N3
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N9
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N7
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G11
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G12
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SE4
G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI5 mi72 minN 510.00 miOvercast39°F33°F81%1019.6 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI6 mi72 minN 510.00 miOvercast37°F35°F93%1019.3 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI13 mi65 minNNE 910.00 miOvercast41°F35°F79%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN4E5E4CalmCalmE5NE6NE5NE4NE6NE6NE4N5N3N4N4N6N5N5N5N5N7
1 day agoNE5NE5NE5NE5NE5NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W6W4W6NW3W4NW4CalmW3
2 days agoNE12
G20
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NE9
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NE9NE8NE8
G14
NE9NE7NE9NE8
G14
NE11NE7E8
G14
E7NE9E6NE5E5E5NE6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.