Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brookfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:22PM Monday May 27, 2019 6:59 AM CDT (11:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:17AMMoonset 1:21PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 506 Am Cdt Mon May 27 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Tuesday morning...
Today..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east early in the afternoon, then rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Rain showers likely early in the afternoon. Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Rain showers late in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming south 5 to 15 knots after midnight veering west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering north late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering northeast after midnight becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.
LMZ644 Expires:201905271600;;538199 FZUS53 KMKX 271006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-271600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brookfield, WI
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location: 43.06, -88.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 271044
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
544 am cdt Mon may 27 2019

Update Initial area of light rain working towards western cwa.

Made some minor pop adjustments there. Otherwise no changes.

Pc

Aviation(12z tafs) Vfr conditions at the outset will likely
trend towards MVFR as rain thunderstorms move in later this morning
and into the afternoon hours. Ese winds gradually increase north
of a warm front. Later today into this evening there will be
potential for more storms as low pressure approaches and may bring
the warm front back into portions of far southern wi. This would
enhance the potential of some severe storms especially closer to
the wi il border. Stay tuned to later forecasts and updates as the
severe potential will largely be predicated on airmass near the
warm front after the late morning afternoon round of rain storms
moves through.

Pc

Prev discussion (issued 314 am cdt Mon may 27 2019)
short term...

today and tonight - confidence... Medium
concern has been heightened with regards to severe potential
later this afternoon into the early evening hours with the focus
of this towards sc wi and closer to il border warm frontal
proximity. In the short term initially dry airmass with lingering
anticyclonic influence, will give way to lower level thermal moist
advection. Showers some thunderstorms likely to be delayed some
but still move into sc wi this morning and trend into the eastern
cwa early this afternoon. Not expecting severe with this batch but
some locally heavy downpours possible. Forcing will be enhanced
by a mid level shortwave that starts to increase DCVA into the sc
later this morning and then shifts into the eastern CWA for the
afternoon. So will delay pops a bit from the outset today and then
gradually ramp things up. Big question will be later day evening
development which will hinge on where effective boundary sets up
in response to the first wave of rain. Seeing some signals where
this front could hang up across far NW il into parts of SW or sc
wi. What's also concerning is that basically all of the models are
now bringing the surface low through SRN or cntrl wi boosting the
potential that the better airmass could be pulled further north
into our area. Airmass would have the potential to become unstable
with decent hodograph in vicinity of warm front. Progs show SW 850
jet core that could override some SE surface winds. 700 millibar
and 500 millibar winds are more westerly. The overall shear could
be be rather impressive. Again this is all dependent on how airmass
responds after the later morning afternoon round. But concern at
this time focuses across the southern CWA where we are adjacent to
spc enhanced risk across NRN cntrl il and where the likelihood
would exist for some late day early evening destabilization which
lead to a more primed airmass for severe storms. Coverage of storms
is proggd decrease as the night wears on.

Long term...

Tuesday through Wednesday night... Forecast confidence low to
moderate...

the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday remains tricky this
morning. Shortwave ridging behind the shortwave moving through
this afternoon evening should help support a period of relative
calm to start the day on Tuesday. Surface flow will become
northerly late tonight into early Tuesday, which will advect some
drier air into the region. These factors may in fact keep the
region dry for most of the daytime hours on Tuesday. The closed
upper low currently located over the southwestern CONUS will move
into the central plains on Tuesday, with convection developing
across eastern nebraska and much of iowa on Tuesday afternoon.

This activity will push east into northern illinois and southern
wisconsin Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. For now, it looks
like the bulk of the stronger instability may remain to our south,
which would result in a relatively low severe weather threat.

Overall confidence is low, however, as much will depend on how
today and tonight's thunderstorm activity evolves.

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across at least parts of the
region Wednesday morning. The upper low will continue to slowly
pinwheel east across nebraska, while gradually weakening. As
various pieces of energy emanate from that low and lift across
the region, expect to see several waves of showers and
thunderstorms. Despite the arrival of higher surface dewpoints,
think that there will be little opportunity for clearing, and thus
appreciable destabilization on Wednesday, limiting the severe
weather risk.

Thursday and Friday... Forecast confidence moderate...

the upper low will continue to fill and will eventually move east
of the area by later Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible across the area, especially during the first part
of the day on Thursday, with diminishing potential Thursday
afternoon and night. Friday currently looks to be mostly dry, with
the region situated within an area of large scale subsidence.

Next weekend... Forecast confidence moderate...

the active pattern looks to continue through next weekend. While
it's too early to nail down particular details, periodic
shortwaves look to move through the great lakes, interacting with
a relatively moist airmass. This should result in multiple
chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period.

Temperatures will likely be around or a touch below climatological
averages, given what is likely to be considerable cloud cover.

Aviation(09z tafs)...VFR conditions at the outset will likely
trend towards MVFR as rain thunderstorms move in later this morning
and into the afternoon hours. A gusty ese wind will be in place ahead
of a warm front. Later today into this evening potential for more
storms as low pressure approaches and may bring the warm front back
into portions of southern wi. This would enhance the potential of
some severe storms especially across the southern portions of our
forecast area. Stay tuned to later forecasts and updates as the severe
potential will largely be predicated on airmass near the warm front
after the late morning afternoon round of rain storms moves through.

Marine... High pressure will shift east of lake michigan quickly
this morning as low pressure approaches from the plains. The low
is expected to move across southern lake michigan tonight and to
the east Tuesday. Winds will vary across the lake today and tonight
due to the track of the low across lake michigan. Developing east
winds will become more southeast or south in the southern portion
of the lake as the low draws closer. Winds will remain northeast
or east in the northern portion of the lake. As the low shifts to
the east tonight into Tuesday the winds will turn northerly across
the entire lake. Will issue a small craft advisory for our
northern two nearshore zones for tonight due to the onshore winds
and subsequent building waves.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am cdt Tuesday
for lmz643-644.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Collar
Tuesday through Sunday... Boxell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 12 mi50 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 53°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 36 mi60 min NE 4.1 G 6 50°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.0)
45187 43 mi40 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 50°F 50°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI5 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair50°F42°F76%1018.3 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI6 mi75 minENE 410.00 miClear46°F44°F93%1017.9 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI13 mi68 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F44°F77%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4E4E4E5NE5N8NE8
G14
E9NE8E7E7NE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
1 day agoS5--SW9
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SW7SW6SW6W4CalmNW4N7N4NW3N8Calm
2 days agoE4E4E5SE6SE4E3SE9SE8
G16
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G17
SE10E7E6E6SE5E4SE3S3SE5CalmNW8CalmCalmCalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.