Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brookfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:33PM Friday February 22, 2019 9:12 PM CST (03:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:28PMMoonset 9:42AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 905 Pm Cst Fri Feb 22 2019
.gale watch in effect from late Saturday night through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..East wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy late in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering southeast with gusts to around 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of light freezing rain and snow in the morning. Rain through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..East wind 10 to 15 knots veering southeast late in the evening, then becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight veering west 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Areas of fog through the night. Rain and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Chance of rain and slight chance of snow after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Sunday..West wind up to 30 knots rising to gales to 35 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 knots. Slight chance of rain and snow in the morning. Freezing spray in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:201902231100;;363790 FZUS53 KMKX 230306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-231100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brookfield, WI
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location: 43.06, -88.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 230255
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
855 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019

Update
Freezing rain sleet showers are starting to form over central and
eastern iowa at this hour, and should push toward southwestern
wisconsin during the first part of the overnight. A fair amount of
dry air still needs to be overcome before anything meaningful
makes it to the ground, so think that 09z 3 am is still a good
start time for the winter weather advisory over the western half
of the forecast area. 12z 6 am should be fine for the eastern
half.

Overall, ice accums look on track for tomorrow. This is a tricky
forecast, as the heaviest precipitation will likely accompany a
push of warmer air, with temperatures more likely to rise above
freezing. Still think that a tenth to quarter inch of ice is the
most likely scenario for most of the area, with the highest
amounts over the southwestern forecast area, where precipitation
will be falling longest before sunrise and when temps begin to
rise above freezing.

Finally, did bump up wind gusts slightly for Sunday, as the latest
model guidance supports a very wind day across the region. Still
think that we will largely stay just below high wind warning
levels (sustained 40 mph, gusts 58 mph), but it will be close.

Marine
Very strong low pressure is expected to impact the area this
weekend. Winds will initially be easterly tonight and Saturday
morning, increasing from the southeast on Saturday
afternoon evening as the low pressure approaches. Once that low
lifts through the lake late Saturday night, winds will increase
considerably from the west for Sunday. Gales are likely starting
early Sunday morning, with a period of storm force gusts looking
increasingly likely for the south half of the lake during the day
Sunday. Any storm force winds will diminish back to gales by
Sunday evening, with gales dissipating by Monday morning.

Waves will also be very impressive with this system, with 16-20
foot waves expected over the southeastern portion of lake
michigan.

Once this system moves through, relatively quiet conditions are
expected for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds into the
area.

Aviation(00z tafs)
Vfr will prevail this evening with just high cloud cover over the
area. Ceilings will drop from west to east overnight, with
precipitation beginning early Saturday morning. For many places,
this will initially be in the form of freezing rain, before
temperatures rise above freezing by mid morning on Saturday. Rain
will then continue into the afternoon hours, along with ifr to
lifr ceilings.

Winds will be easterly on Saturday, with off and on gusts through
the late morning and afternoon.

By late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, fog will become
more common, especially near the lakeshore.

Prev discussion... (issued 340 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019)
short term...

tonight and Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The onset time for the precip slowed an hour or two since the
previous forecast. However, the headline times stayed the same
since it is not a major difference. Because of the delay, there
will be less time to accumulate ice before temperatures and
pavement temperatures warm above freezing by late morning. Highest
icing amounts (less than a quarter inch) will be over south
central wi, mainly west of the dells area to madison and monroe.

By noon, precip should be all rain across the area.

Temperatures will drop into the 20s quickly this evening with
mostly clear skies, then gradually rise to just above freezing by
late morning. Pavement temperatures will likely be a little
delayed in warming due to cloudy skies tomorrow, but everywhere
should be above freezing by noon when the winter weather advisory
ends. The headline may be able to be cancelled early.

Forcing for this initial round of precip is largely due to low
level frontogenesis and warm air advection. Initially, there is
dry air in the low levels on those east winds that will need to
be overcome, thus the delayed onset. We may see a wintry mix with
the initial onset, but it will quickly turn into freezing rain due
to a warm nose of around 4c. There should be pretty decent
rainfall rates with the strong low level forcing, so that will
actually help to limit icing amounts due to the latent heat
release.

By Saturday afternoon, the mid levels begin to dry out so southern
wi will see lighter rainfall rates or even a lull in the precip as
we await the next round of strong forcing.

Saturday night and Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

The next round of rain will arrive in southern wi Saturday evening
with robust vorticity advection ahead of a deepening, negatively
tilted upper low. We should see a quick quarter to half inch of
rain. There is a chance for thunderstorms during the late
afternoon evening period due to steep mid level lapse rates. Small
hail would be possible in storms.

The system will undergo cyclogenesis and deepen significantly as
it tracks into southern ontario Sunday morning. Colder air will
spread into southern wi on strong west-northwest winds late
Saturday night through Sunday. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are
expected at times. The criteria for a high wind warning is wind
gusts greater than 58 mph- we should be just under this threshold.

I would expect to issue a wind advisory for this period sometime
tomorrow.

Precip will transition to a wintry mix late Saturday night and
into light snow by late Sunday morning. Snowfall amounts are still
expected to be light, less than an inch.

Snow showers flurries and wind will gradually taper off Sunday
night. Low temperatures will fall into the single digits above and
below zero (warmest southeast). Wind chills are expected to
bottom out in the negative teens.

Long term...

Monday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Monday highs will only rebound into the teens, then drop into the
single digits above and below zero once again Monday night. A
shortwave trough embedded within swift northwest flow may bring a
round of light snow to iowa, southern wi, and northern il Monday
afternoon.

There is another chance for snow Tuesday per the gfs, but the
ecmwf does not show this due to weaker 850mb warm air advection.

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

This wave train will continue through at least Thursday with cold
northwest flow, bringing us intermittent chances of light snow.

There should be a little stronger wave that moves through Friday
or Saturday that could bring higher snowfall amounts to southern
wi, but it is too early to tell with this one.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory from 3 am to noon cst Saturday for
wiz046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

Winter weather advisory from 6 am to noon cst Saturday for
wiz051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

Lm... Gale watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night
for lmz080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-643>646-669-671-673-
675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.

Update... Boxell
tonight Saturday and aviation marine... Boxell
Saturday night through Friday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 12 mi33 min E 7 G 8 32°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi93 min ESE 6 G 8 33°F 1029.5 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 36 mi73 min ENE 8 G 8.9 32°F 1027.8 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI5 mi88 minE 47.00 miOvercast30°F24°F80%1028.1 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI6 mi88 minE 710.00 miOvercast28°F24°F86%1027.8 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI13 mi81 minENE 57.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F25°F79%1028.9 hPa

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E3E4E3
1 day agoW16
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2 days agoCalmCalmNE3CalmE5E7E6E9E7
G14
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G36

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.