Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brookfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:17PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 12:20 AM CDT (05:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:50AMMoonset 9:19PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 850 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cdt Wednesday...
Rest of tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Widespread fog. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Patchy fog through the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of rain through around midnight, then rain and snow after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday..East wind 15 to 25 knots easing to 10 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then backing northeast 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Snow likely in the morning. Rain through the day. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
LMZ644 Expires:201703291015;;237884 FZUS53 KMKX 290150 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 850 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ643-644-291015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brookfield, WI
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location: 43.06, -88.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 290141
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
841 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Update
Low clouds and fog continue to push west out of southeast
wisconsin. The cold northeast flow off the lake has supported it
and this fetch will continue through the night. Some of the high
resolution guidance continues to push the fog into south central
wisconsin after midnight and this isn't entirely unreasonable.

Right now the fog is moving west about 8mph, but may accelerate
as the temp/dewpoint spread tightens up with radiating temps. The
dense fog advisory is just for the lake counties at this time and
this may still be okay with lighter fog/better vsbys possible
farther inland. The dense fog advisory runs until 9 am Wednesday.

Will watch the trends for possible expansion of the advisory. The
remainder of the forecast looks on track.

Marine
The marine dense fog advisory will continue through mid morning on
Wednesday. There is some drier air working south down the lake
which may allow the advisory to end earlier from port washington
north to sheboygan later tonight.

Northeast to east winds will increase later Wednesday into
Wednesday night likely resulting in small craft advisory
conditions for Wednesday night into Thursday night.

Prev discussion (issued 623 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017)
update...

fog and low stratus right along lake michigan looks like it will
creep progressively farther inland overnight. There is some
indication that after midnight, after temps cool rapidly inland
under clear skies, that stratus will accelerate quickly westward.

It will take some of the lower vsbys along with it. Dense fog is
likely right along the shore, but vsbys should improve quickly
inland. We will have to watch this closely as it has potential to
go quickly downhill.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

the southeast wisconsin tafs, especially kmke, will sit under the
a steady stream of low stratus and lower vsbys streaming in off
lake michigan. Trajectories don't really show it improving until
about sunrise Wednesday. Very little in the way of hi resolution
guidance is handling this very well. Low ifr conditions likely
through the night. Kmsn could see some ifr cigs/vsbys after 06z
wed due to fog/stratus development with good radiational cooling
this evening. Conditions should lift toVFR levels by about 15z
Wednesday with MVFR CIGS arriving Wednesday afternoon ahead of
approaching low pressure. Most precip should hold off until after
00z thu.

Prev discussion... (issued 329 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017)
short term...

tonight - confidence... Medium
main forecast challenge centers on fog and stratus trends. Things
have been rather precarious lakeside with lower ceilings/fog hugging
the shore and in some cases coming onshore with minimal inland push.

Guidance suggests some fog and stratus development further inland as
night wears on. Confidence not great at this point on inland extent
or degree of vsby restrictions due to winds staying up. Gradient
proggd to be maintained so at least some NE winds mixing down per
bufkit. MOS and SREF not suggesting much confidence in widespread
dense so no headline at this time.

Wednesday - confidence... Medium
focus early on will be any lingering fog/stratus and then precip
trends with waa/moist advection ahead of system in southern plains.

Sfc/850 millibar ese flow may help to maintain the dry layer in
place per bufkit soundings. The GFS is much quicker to saturate this
layer in the afternoon, while the NAM shows more depth to the dry
air. Have spread pops into the sc CWA though best moisture push
arrives beyond this period. With the cloud cover and flow off the
lake have trended cooler, more towards 3 hourly MOS and superblend,
with the nam MOS looking better towards the lake.

Wednesday night through Friday... Forecast confidence medium.

A n-s upper trough and associated sfc trough will track from the
central and southern great plains to the ohio river valley during
this period. Well organized lift from 850-700 mb warm advection
and frontogenesis is expected Wed nt-thu. It will be aided aloft
by the rrqd of a w-e jet over the northern great lakes and srn
canada, along with PVA from the passage of the upper trough axis.

Pws will increase to 0.80-1.00 inches with total forecasted qpf
amounts of 0.70-0.95 toward central wi with over an inch along and
south of a line from madison to milwaukee. Biggest challenge is
precip. Type. Forecasted temps aloft toward central wi are near
0c for Wed nt-thu am so wanted to account for the potential for
more snow. Expecting a mix of precip. From madison to milwaukee
and nwd with 2-3 inches of snow forecast from sheboygan county
wwd to mqt county. Areas of light freezing rain with a glaze of
ice will also be possible north of madison and milwaukee. All rain
should then be occurring for Thu afternoon into the evening. Most
of the system should then be ewd for Fri although stratus clouds
could easily linger.

Long term... Saturday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence low to
medium.

High pressure will likely prevail from Fri nt-sat nt. A fairly
large low pressure area over the lower ms river valley will then
move nwd for mon-tue bringing chances of rain for mainly Mon nt-
tue. Precip. Chances are currently low due to the uncertainty of
the track of this system. Temps will be at least slightly above
normal.

Aviation(update)... Large area of stratus has eroded to
the southwest of TAF sites while other lake induced stratus hugging
the shore and in some cases coming onshore. However for the most
part enough dry air mixing has eroded the inland push. Another
concern will be development of more stratus/fog overnight as
sref/llvl rh progs and trajectories favor some of the more
widespread stratus over the lake spreading inland as the night wears
on. However not real confident on widespread this will become or if
vsbys will get out of hand since gradient still supportive of winds
staying up. On Wednesday a low pressure system will slowly approach.

For much of the day the east or ese low level flow may help
reinforce the dry low levels but the GFS models is showing a quicker
erosion of this dry layer and a quicker onset to rain. This would
mainly affect sc wi during the afternoon while the rest of the area
looks like it would remain dry until Wednesday evening.

Marine... At the moment, port washington cam shows some thicker fog
but other cams showing better vsbys. Will hold off on advisory for
now as not confident on how widespread fog will become. However have
issued a marine weather statement. North winds will shift more east
around high pressure. This flow will bend northeast through
Wednesday. These winds and subsequent waves are expected to remain
below small craft levels. However the onshore flow will further
strengthen heading into Wednesday and Wednesday night as low
pressure approaches. Higher waves can then be expected with
potential small craft advisory headline needed.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cdt Wednesday for wiz052-060-066-
071-072.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cdt Wednesday for lmz643>646.

Update... Davis
tonight/Wednesday and aviation/marine... Collar
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 12 mi31 min N 4.1 G 5.1 33°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi41 min W 1.9 G 5.1 34°F 1025.4 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 36 mi81 min NNE 9.9 G 13 34°F 1024 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI5 mi26 minN 00.50 miFog32°F32°F100%1025.1 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI6 mi46 minENE 30.25 miFog32°F32°F100%1024.7 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI13 mi29 minVar 40.25 miFog34°F33°F97%1025.2 hPa

Wind History from UES (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE3N4N5NE6N6N5N5N3N3NE6NE10NE15NE15NE5E8
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E7NE5NE7E5E4E4Calm
1 day agoW5NW4W5W5NW5W5N3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm----NE7NE8NE7NE5NE5
2 days agoNE10
G14
E6NE10E7E8E8NE7E6E6E6NE5NE5E5E6E6E6NE3--CalmCalmCalmCalmW5W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.