Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brookfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:49PM Saturday January 19, 2019 8:23 PM CST (02:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:17PMMoonset 6:44AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 705 Pm Cst Sat Jan 19 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through Sunday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Tonight..North wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of flurries in the evening. Slight chance of snow in the late evening and early morning. Heavy freezing spray through the night. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday..North wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday night..North wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Heavy freezing spray through the night. Slight chance of snow through around midnight. Chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and early morning, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Monday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east 5 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Freezing spray through the day. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:201901200500;;622523 FZUS53 KMKX 200106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-200500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brookfield, WI
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location: 43.06, -88.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 192336
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
536 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019

Update
Things look to be on track for this evening. An initial area of
lake effect snow is working its way along the lakeshore from
milwaukee south. Another band of snow is evident on radar offshore
of manitowoc, and that should continue to work south tonight,
likely just skirting the shoreline in racine and kenosha counties.

Going forecast of another 1-3" of snow just along the lakeshore
looks very good at this point.

Will let the winter weather advisory for ozaukee and sheboygan
counties expire on time at 6 pm, as any appreciable snow
accumulations have ended over this area.

Aviation(00z tafs)
A band of lake effect snow will continue to move along the lake
michigan shoreline this evening into the overnight hours. This
will bring periods of ifr visibility to mke and enw, along with
MVFR ceilings. Expect to see another 1 to 2 inches of snow at the
airports, with slightly higher amounts right along lake michigan.

Winds will also remain gusty, with north winds gusting in the
25-30 knot range at times. The gustiness should subside late
tonight, though winds will remain breezy.

Further west, waukesha will see flurries for another hour or two,
and then should be done through the rest of the TAF period. Once
the flurries end,VFR will prevail. No additional precipitation
is expected at msn, withVFR expected through tomorrow. Both
sites could see some minor blowing drifting of snow, however, with
the breezy north winds.

Prev discussion (issued 325 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019)
short term...

tonight and Sunday - confidence... Medium to high.

Moderate lake effect band extending from the northern open waters
of lake michigan toward northern sheboygan county should swing
south across the lake shore counties through the evening. Latest
rap indicates lake band may reintensify over eastern portions of
milwaukee,racine and kenosha counties during the evening as low
level winds re-energize to around 25 knots, increasing the low
level convergence and omega. Will continue winter weather advisory
for sheboygan and ozaukee counties for the rest of the afternoon
as this band swings through, with the winter storm warning for the
southern lakeshore counties through the evening. Lake effect band
looks to shift just east of the lakeshore around midnight. Partial
clearing and somewhat diminishing winds along the fresh snow cover
will allow temperatures to fall into the single digits most areas
as 925h temps dip to -16 to -18c. But will need to watch for
potential low clouds from the northern wi slipping into the area
as low level winds increase more from the north. Also, some mid-
high clouds from increasing isentropic lift in the plains may
spread in later tonight in the western areas.

This isentropic lift will remain mostly to the west and southwest
of southern wi on Sunday, with mainly the mid-high clouds sweeping
across wi. Any -sn from this weak lift should remain to the west
as well.

Long term...

Sunday night through Monday... Forecast confidence is medium to
high:
winds will become northeast to east and then eventually southeast
Sunday night into Monday, allowing some lake effect to push back
inland. Any accumulations should be on the low end since the wind
direction will be changing through most of the event, not allowing
the showers to focus on one particular area.

Temps will likely fall below zero most places away from lake
michigan Sunday night given mostly clear skies and light winds.

Below normal temperatures will continue Monday, with temperatures
struggling 20 at best.

Monday night through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is medium
to high:
models are in pretty good agreement that low pressure will move by
to the south early next week and bring more accumulating snowfall
to southern wisconsin. Warm advection ahead of the system should
result in light accumulations brushing the northern forecast area
Monday night. The meat of the system is then expected to come
through during the day Tuesday, particularly during the afternoon
and evening. Though there is high confidence in widespread
precipitation, there are still some variations among forecast
models with the low track and timing. The northern solutions could
result in some rain mixing in for a period in the southeast,
though the overall picture suggests primarily snow across
southern wisconsin. The latest blend of models suggests a 3 to 5
inch event, though there is still plenty of time for the finer
details to change.

Wednesday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium:
below normal temperatures are expected for the second half of
next week, especially toward the end of the week. A shortwave or
two will bring snow chances at times. There is no major system on
the horizon during this period. Though models are all showing
occasional snow chances, there isn't great agreement with
timing placement strength of these systems.

Marine...

nearshore... Gusty northeast winds will back to the north to
northwest tonight and slowly diminish through Sunday. A small
craft advisory remains in effect for the gusty winds and high
waves into Sunday. Areas of freezing spray are also expected.

Open waters... Decided to pull the trigger on a gale warning for
the southern lake michigan open waters. Already getting gusts
around 30kts this afternoon at several lakeshore stations and
they should be an uptick in gustiness tonight as an additional
surge of low level cold air advection spreads across the open
waters. Scattered snow showers will also continue to affect the
open waters through the weekend due to lingering weak low pressure
convergence zone in the area. Heavy freezing spray warning will
also continue in effect for the northern half of the open waters
where more widespread conditions are expected.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter storm warning until midnight cst tonight for wiz066-071-
072.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for wiz052-
060.

Lm... Gale warning until 3 am cst Sunday for lmz080-669-671-673-675-
777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

Heavy freezing spray warning until noon cst Sunday for lmz261-
362-364-366-563-565-567-868.

Small craft advisory until 3 pm cst Sunday for lmz645-646.

Small craft advisory until 10 am cst Sunday for lmz643-644.

Update... Boxell
tonight Sunday and aviation marine... Boxell
Sunday night through Saturday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi44 min NNW 8.9 G 15 10°F 1022.7 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 36 mi84 min N 27 G 31 19°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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W6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI5 mi39 minN 10 G 1610.00 miClear9°F-2°F61%1021.3 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI6 mi39 minN 910.00 miClear7°F0°F72%1021 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI13 mi32 minNNW 11 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy13°F0°F56%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from UES (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N7NE7NE14
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1 day agoW8W6NW6NW10NW8NW10
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W9NW6NW5NW3NW4NW3NW3N4N3N3N3NE4N6NE7NE6NE5NE7NE8
2 days agoNE4E3E7E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmSE4CalmW4W7W6W6W7W8W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.