Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brookfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:37PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 7:10 AM CDT (12:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:31AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 303 Am Cdt Wed Jun 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am cdt this morning through late tonight...
Today..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely through around midnight, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the evening, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ644 Expires:201706281615;;940829 FZUS53 KMKX 280803 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 303 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-645-281615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brookfield, WI
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location: 43.06, -88.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 281024
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
524 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017

Aviation(12z tafs)
Showers and storms will push across the area this morning. They
reach madison around 8 am and milwaukee around 11 am. Look for
cigs to steadily lower, possibly dropping to MVFR levels for a
few hours during the morning rain. Look forVFR conditions then
from this afternoon into tonight. We could see thunderstorms
redevelop late this afternoon and evening, but it is conditional
on how quickly we can clear out the clouds and rain from the
morning activity. There are indications that redevelopment will
occur primarily across iowa into illinois and possibly far
southern wisconsin. If we clear out, much of southern wisconsin
will be threatened by strong storms. Brief MVFR ifr CIGS vsbys are
possible with any thunderstorms.

Look for breezy southwest winds today, diminishing tonight.

Prev discussion (issued 310 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

Confidence is high that the area will get some rain and
thunderstorms today. Confidence is more challenged with respect to
the severe potential. The concerns challenges remain the same as
those expressed in prior discussions. We have a morning round of
showers and storms that will come through with the initial warm
and moist air advection. The morning activity is not expected to
be severe and will be diminishing through the morning in typical
nocturnal thunderstorm fashion. It should reach the madison area
by mid morning and the milwaukee metro area by late morning. It
will be falling apart by mid day.

The concern is our ability to recover for the afternoon. The
morning activity will lay out a boundary from southern wisconsin
back into iowa that will then be the focus for redevelopment. It
appears the best initiation along this boundary will be across
iowa this afternoon, where the atmosphere will have the best
chance to recover, also coupled with strong deep layer shear.

Another area of redevelopment will be closer to the low center and
deeper dynamics over west central and northwest wisconsin.

Southern wi may be fairly dry through the afternoon as we wait for
the upstream redevelopment to move in.

Redevelopment occurs late this afternoon across iowa. As that
activity organizes into a linear system, it should push into
southwest wisconsin, possibly connecting with the convection
farther to the north, moving through the remainder of southern
wisconsin. However, some of the models do show a weakness in
coverage across southern wisconsin this evening, so we'll have to
see how this plays out.

Spc has put all of southern wi in a slight risk with an enhanced
risk now running from baraboo, to madison to janesville and points
west. This is conditional, of course, and depends on where the
morning convective boundary lays out, where the atmosphere
recovers best and how the new development upstream behaves this
afternoon. Large hail, strong winds and a few tornadoes are
possible. The highest tornado threat will be in the enhanced risk
area.

Long term...

Thursday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium:
another low pressure system will approach on Thursday and is
expected to move through Thursday night and Friday. There will be
a chance for showers storms by later Thursday afternoon and into
the evening as deeper moisture and better instability return.

Showers and storms are then likely Thursday night into Friday as
the low moves through. SPC has the main severe wx threat through
this period to the east on Friday, which makes sense given the
timing of the low passing through earlier in the day.

Scattered showers and a few storms are possible Saturday as a
wave rotates through the broad upper trough in place over the
great lakes.

Should see temps within a few degrees of normal thu-sat.

Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium:
have some low precip chances Sunday per the canadian bringing
another wave through. Looks like a dry day though per the GFS and
ecmwf. Better confidence that a wave may bring showers and storm
chances Monday as a troughing pattern remains in the region.

The flow turns more zonal for Tuesday as the trough departs. The
gfs and canadian show a waves sliding through with precip clipping
the south, so have some low precip chances in there. The ecmwf
has a stronger surface high that arrives sooner, which would
result in a dry day.

Temps early next week look near normal.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

early morning clouds are increasing ahead of an approaching area
of showers and thunderstorms. Llws is developing at this time,
but will dissipate by late morning as breezy south winds develop
at the surface. An area of showers and scattered thunderstorms
will move east across southern wisconsin through the day with
additional development of strong to severe storms late this
afternoon or evening. Areas of MVFR CIGS and ifr vsbys will be
likely in showers or thunderstorms.

Marine...

strong south to southwest winds will result in small craft
advisory conditions today through tonight.

Beaches...

strong southerly winds will bring a high swim risk to the sheboygan
county beaches. Winds will be a bit more off shore and waves will
be lower south of that area. However, a moderate swim risk covers
all of southeast wisconsin lake michigan beaches.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement from 1 pm cdt this afternoon through
late tonight for wiz052.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 am cdt Thursday
for lmz643>646.

Update... Davis
today tonight and aviation marine... Davis
Thursday through Tuesday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 12 mi21 min S 8.9 G 11 62°F
45013 14 mi92 min SSE 9.7 G 12 59°F 55°F1014.4 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 26 mi31 min S 4.1 G 7 58°F 1014.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 36 mi71 min S 9.9 G 12 61°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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W5
G11
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G15
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G11
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G6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI5 mi16 minS 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F44°F55%1014.2 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI6 mi26 minSSE 810.00 miClear57°F48°F72%1014.2 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI13 mi19 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F50°F63%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from UES (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W8NW8W10W9
G14
W8W8W8SW7SW7W7SW5CalmCalm--S5S3CalmS3S4S3S4S5S8
1 day agoW9W9W12W12
G20
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NW13NW16
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NW8N4--NW3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW8
2 days agoW11
G16
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W11W14
G20
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G22
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G27
W8--W5W10W8SW6W6W6W5W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.