Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jordan, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:32PM Friday May 24, 2019 1:46 PM EDT (17:46 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:34AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905240930;;366837 Fzus51 Kbuf 240548 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 148 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-240930- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 148 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning...
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jordan, NY
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location: 43.07, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241737
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
137 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
Cool and generally quiet conditions will continue over the area
as high pressure advances eastward through tonight. Conditions
will then deteriorate late tonight through Saturday night due to
a pair of frontal systems which will push through the region.

High pressure will then ridge southward from canada and into the
great lakes providing mainly dry weather for Sunday and Monday.

Near term through Saturday
Cyclonic northwesterly flow continues to dominate the forecast
area even as somewhat dirty high pressure builds in. This is
allowing for northwesterly flow to gradually diminish as the
afternoon GOES on. Likewise, upslope showers are ending over the
north country as moisture departs to the east. However, due to
fairly low convective temperatures, cumulus development has been
fairly efficient, so most areas are not going better than partly
sunny, even with the departure of large scale moisture and
ascent.

Going into the evening and overnight hours, the remnants of the
mcs over ia and wi this morning will make a futile attempt to
crest the ridge sprawling through the great lakes. Hi-res model
solutions really eviscerate this MCS as it attempts to do this,
while the larger scale models hang onto some semblance of narrow
lifting on the front side of the circulation associated with the
decaying remnant mesolow. Low end pops were still maintained
across wny and the western southern tier for this during the
evening hours before dry conditions resume. Even the most recent
radar mosaic images indicate precipitation is getting utterly
crushed as it is crossing lower michigan into the ridge, so
nothing higher than low end pops seems prudent.

The mid-level ridge axis passes east of the CWA on Saturday
morning, allowing for flow to rapidly become southerly and then
southwesterly as a warm front advances through the cwa. This
will bring much more humid conditions as evidenced by pwat
values jumping progressively through the day toward 1.75 inches.

With the warm frontal passage, the deepest moisture and
corridor of favored ascent with a leading short wave looks to be
just to the north of the area with weaker moisture and shear
fields farther south. Thus, the best chances of precipitation
from the warm frontal passage look to be just to our north,
however things look to get a bit more interesting once we are
entrenched in the warm sector by the afternoon.

With the aforementioned soupy 1.75 inch pwat environment
sprawled across most of new york state by Saturday afternoon,
and MUCAPE values vaulting toward 1000-1200 j kg (especially
over the southern tier) with attendant 0-6 km bulk shear values
on the order of 35 kts, convective development seems a fairly
good bet. Activity will likely kick off fairly early with
additional redevelopment as the mesoscale environment plays out
in terms outflow interactions. That said, hi-res guidance is
going absolutely loopy in the warm sector. However, given that
the best shear doesn't start to arrive until very late in the
day or the evening, and the apex of warm air doesn't get to our
area until this juncture, it would seem the best potential for
anything severe would hold off until then. That said, SPC does
have the area west of i-390 in a slight risk, and the time
period closer to the evening on Saturday would be the window for
this. Further, it would seem heavy rain would be more
problematic, anyway. Deep moisture, weakened afternoon shear,
and the potential for successive rounds of convective activity
will yield potential for heavy rain accumulations. This could
lead to localized flooding.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
Sunday a weak frontal boundary will drop southward across the
region. We will still be on the humid side to start the day and
a few showers or thunderstorms remain possible through the
afternoon as we'll remain unstable. This precipitation will end
through Sunday early evening as moisture depletes as surface
high pressure over canada funnels drier air southward. Skies
will clear through the night with overnight temperatures
dropping back into the lower 50s.

Long term Monday through Friday
Increased ridging will begin on Monday over the eastern third of the
country. This will provide rainfree conditions for Monday, with
comfortable levels of humidity as surface high pressure to the north
pushes drier air southward.

As the ridge strengthens over the southeast u.S., a similar scenario
to this weeks weather will take shape. The ridge over the southeast
u.S. Will cause waves of low pressure to trek northeast out of
western half of the country where a trough will be in place. Waves
of low pressure will increase the chance for showers and
thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday across western and north
central ny.

Ahead of these areas of low pressure warming temperatures on Tuesday
and Wednesday will bring highs across the area to the upper 70s to
mid 80s. A passing cold front late Wednesday early Thursday will
bring slightly below normal temperates to the area with highs in the
mid to upper 60s.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Stratocumulus is gradually set to erode as synoptic moisture
departs to the east of kart this afternoon. A period ofVFR
conditions will follow over all sites as high pressure gradually
slinks eastward through the evening. A dying MCS will re-spread
clouds over all the sites from w-e later this evening even as
most shower activity dies as it advances toward the ridge in
place over the area. Clouds will further thicken and lower on
Saturday as a warm front pushes through the area, increasing the
chances of showers and thunderstorms through the day on
Saturday. Some of these may produce heavy rainfall, which would
decrease visibility locally.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Some storms could produce gusty winds.

Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Winds are gradually diminishing this afternoon as high pressure
moves into the area. These will go almost calm overnight before
increase from the south and eventually southwest on Saturday
ahead of a cold front and widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Winds will gradually turn northwest by Sunday night into Monday
and weaken.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fries
near term... Fries
short term... Thomas
long term... Sw thomas
aviation... Fries
marine... Fries


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 27 mi34 min W 12 G 15 48°F 1018.9 hPa44°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 60 mi46 min NW 9.9 G 12 55°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi34 min 60°F 1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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N4
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W13
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E1
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N5
NE10
W7
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N5

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY20 mi52 minWNW 1310.00 miOvercast60°F51°F72%1018.1 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi52 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast58°F48°F70%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SE6S6S16W17
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W6W10
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W9W13W15
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NW12NW13
1 day agoCalmCalmNE4NE3E4E4E4SE7E9NW9SE5S10S8S7S7SE6SE5SE6E4E4E5S5CalmS10
2 days agoNW18
G23
NW17
G29
NW13
G20
NW15
G18
W12NW12NW9NW5NW5W4SW3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5CalmN3E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.