Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Lake, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:07AMSunset 5:46PM Monday January 22, 2018 10:52 PM EST (03:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:09AMMoonset 11:26PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1107 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing north, then increasing to 10 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves calm.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots toward daybreak. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves calm.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots backing southwest gales to 35 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of snow showers until midday. Waves calm. Waves are for ice free areas. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2018, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ846 Expires:201801161015;;514452 FZUS53 KGRR 160407 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1107 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-161015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Lake, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.07, -86.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kgrr 230253
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
953 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
more rain will continue into tonight, but of the lighter variety.

Very late tonight, or around daybreak, the rain will switch over
the snow. The snow will be the steadiest through Tuesday morning,
however with temperatures near or slightly above freezing, the
snow accumulations will be limited. Most areas will see less than
an inch on grassy areas. Areas toward highway 10 will see around
an inch. Scattered light snow showers will continue Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. The colder air will hang on
through mid week, with highs on Wednesday only around 30.

Another warm up arrives by Friday into Saturday when temperatures
should once again be in the 40s. Then it appears to cool down
again Sunday and Monday. Light rain should return Friday night,
which should switch to snow Saturday night and last into Sunday
night.

Update
Issued at 953 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
expect scattered rain showers to continue overnight as the upper
low approaches from the southwest. Also can't rule out a TSTM as
area of steeper mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5c currently just
to our south and west heads northeast. Have added isolated tstms
to the fcst tonight.

Any chance of snow looks very low until after 12z Tuesday since
sfc temps remain rather mild. If some snow were to mix in, it'd
be after 09z and mainly south of i-96 since the coldest h8 air
near -4c curls in from the southwest around the bottom of the
sfc low.

Will have areas of fog in the fcst overnight in the northern 2 3
of the cwfa where the sfc low is tracking and where baggy
pressure gradient light winds will be present. Also, a few sites
near and north of i-96 are currently reporting 1 4 mile
visibilities.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 330 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
low pressure will cross the state late tonight. Rain showers will
continue, then change to snow toward daybreak Tuesday. A steady
snow is expected Tuesday morning, but most places will see less
than an inch of accumulation. Roads are only expected to be wet.

Precipitation will remain spotty within the dry slot which will
be over the CWA this evening. But then steadier pcpn will return
late tonight and into Tuesday morning. This will initially start
as more rain, but then begin to switch to snow from west to east
as the colder air wraps in. Still appears we won't have any
accums through 12z tue, so it appears the morning commute will go
ok, and no headlines are planned.

But the steady snow will continue through much of Tuesday
morning. This will be falling on a sloppy wet ground, after
roughly the inch of rain that occurred today. The far north, near
highway 10 should see around an inch of snow, perhaps toward two
inches in northern clare county, otherwise less than an inch is
expected.. The snow will move out toward mid day. This will be
followed by some light lake effect into Tuesday evening, this
will only add another dusting since the delta t's are marginal.

A short wave comes through Wed morning, leading to slightly
colder air moving in. Feel this will perk up the lake effect
again by Wednesday afternoon and into the night. Again the delta
t's are marginal, but slightly better moisture arrives. Accums
are expected to remain under an inch in this time frame and mainly
for areas west of u.S. 131.

Long term (Thursday through Monday)
issued at 330 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
ridging both at the surface and aloft will bring benign weather
on Thursday and Friday. We have a dry forecast through both days
with temperatures moderating from the 30s on Thursday to the 40s
on Friday.

Models diverge on Saturday which leads to a lower confidence
forecast for the weekend. The GFS and canadian have a weakening
surface trough and therefore little in the way of precipitation
associated with it. The ECMWF develops a wave of low pressure on
a front which moves northeast through our area. We have a chance
for showers in the forecast for Saturday and Saturday night for
now and we will see how the models trend. The precipitation in
the forecast is a nod to the ecmwf.

Colder air flows in for Sunday and Monday and we have some small
chances for snow showers in the forecast. The surface pattern
features a high building in so not expecting anything significant
in regard to snow. Highs cool back into the upper 20s and lower
30s by next Monday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 715 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
the sfc and upper lows will be tracking across michigan tonight
and early Tuesday which should lead to highly variable flight
conditions categories.

In general, widespread ifr lifr is expected to persist north and
west of grr with ocnl light rain and drizzle. Meanwhile there is a
dry slot trying to approach from the southwest and this should
lead to MVFR to potentially evenVFR conditions at times for
locations south and southeast of grr tonight.

All areas are expected to go ifr again Tuesday morning with ocnl
mixed rain and snow showers as the low passes by and the cold air
rushes in. Will need to watch for the possibility of a brief burst
of heavy wet snow at mkg Tuesday morning. Then mostly MVFR
Tuesday afternoon with scattered snow showers.

Winds will be shifting in a clockwise direction over the next 18
hours as the sfc low tracks through. South winds of 5 to 15 kts
tonight will become northwest at 15 to 25 kts by Tuesday afternoon.

Hydrology
Issued at 330 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
snow has melted or nearly melted across west michigan as of Monday
afternoon. Rain that fell across the area last night and this
morning averaged between 0.25 and 0.5 inches along and south of a
line from south haven to mason, and between 0.5 and 0.9 inches to
the north of there. Additional rainfall today is expected to be
lighter, with most areas receiving less than an tenth of an inch of
rainfall.

Additional precipitation is expected tonight and early Tuesday on
the backside of low pressure tracking through the area. The heaviest
amounts of precipitation, a combination of rain and melted snow,
through Tuesday afternoon would be most likely to occur over
portions of central michigan. Amounts are not expected to be heavy
enough to cause additional flooding, but potential for ice jams will
still exist as river levels rise. A relatively dry stretch of
weather is then expected Tuesday night through Friday.

Rises on many rivers across the area are already being observed as
water runs off the frozen ground. Some of the slower responding
rivers will continue to see these rises continue through the end of
the week. The only river flood warning in effect as of Monday
afternoon was for the looking glass river near eagle. Sycamore creek
near holt may near warning criteria, and the advisory could need to
be upgraded later this evening. The portage river near vicksburg is
the only other river that could exceed flood stage by Tuesday night.

Numerous river flood advisories are in effect. Please see the latest
flood advisory statement for more information. The rainfall and
warmer temperatures (both today and late this week) will aid in the
breakup of river ice, and will continue to provide concern for ice
jams. The most likely impacts from these would be minor flooding
upstream of the ice jam.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Duke
synopsis... Jk
short term... Jk
long term... Duke
aviation... Meade
hydrology... Hlo


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 13 mi43 min SSE 8 G 11 46°F 997.7 hPa46°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 21 mi53 min SE 8.9 G 13 996.9 hPa (-2.2)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 47 mi53 min ESE 8.9 G 11 48°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 62 mi53 min E 2.9 G 5.1 41°F 40°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last
24hr
E9
E9
E10
E10
E11
G14
E9
E11
E13
G17
E12
G16
E11
G15
E14
G17
E12
G16
E14
E14
E11
G14
E8
S12
S4
S5
S9
S11
SE7
G11
SE10
G14
SE9
G13
1 day
ago
S10
S9
S8
S8
S9
S6
S8
SE6
E5
SE3
SE3
G6
E6
SE4
SE2
G5
E6
E6
E6
E5
E7
E6
E8
E9
E9
E10
2 days
ago
S19
G24
S17
G22
S18
G22
S16
G21
S17
S14
G17
S13
G16
S11
G14
S11
G14
S9
S10
S9
S7
S8
S8
S8
G11
S6
S6
S8
S7
S5
S8
S10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI9 mi58 minESE 70.25 miFog44°F42°F93%997.9 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI23 mi60 minSSE 72.00 miFog/Mist43°F42°F97%998 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last 24hrE6E7E5E7E7E9E8E10E11E10E12E14E12E10E7E10E9E7SE7SE7SE6SE7S9SE7
1 day agoSE5S7S9S8S5S4S5S5S4E3CalmSE3E3SE4SE6E4E4E6E4E4E7E4E4E5
2 days ago--SW20SW19
G27
SW20SW15SW14SW12SW10SW8SW8SW8SW7SW7S11SW10SW11SW9SW8S9S7S4S4S4S8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (22,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.