Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Lake, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:10AMSunset 5:13PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 10:16 PM EST (03:16 UTC) Moonrise 2:44PMMoonset 3:16AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 304 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening, then cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots veering northwest late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201812190415;;992385 FZUS53 KGRR 182004 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 304 PM EST Tue Dec 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-190415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Lake, MI
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location: 43.07, -86.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 182333
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
633 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 234 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
no major changes were introduce to the forecast, with the highlights
as follows:
- rain changing to a rain snow mix is on track for Thursday afternoon
and Friday morning, respectively (note the timing has shifted a
later in this forecast package).

- light lake effect snow is possible Sunday and into Monday for
the west wind snow belts.

Discussion (this evening through next Tuesday)
issued at 234 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
much of the area is enjoying the third day in a row of at least
partial sunshine for the first time since october 29-31. Aside from
an increase in mid- to upper-level clouds tonight and above normal
temperatures tomorrow, there's not much to talk about over the next
48 hours.

The pattern will become slightly more active toward the end of the
week as a deep trough develops over the central united states with
an accompanying surface low along the gulf coast and weaker upper-
level low over the northern great lakes. Much like exactly a week
ago, lower michigan will be inbetween both features and stuck
with a region of light precipitation starting Thursday afternoon
and lasting into Friday morning. Forecast surface temperatures and
model soundings suggest that that rain will be the predominant
precipitation type with light snow mixing in Friday morning.

We're still monitoring the possibility for a brief period of mixed
precipitation at the very onset Thursday afternoon (should
surface temperatures start off right at freezing), though such a
risk looks lower compared to last week.

As the aforementioned surface low deepens as it track across the
northeastern united states Friday, north to northwest winds will
increase across lower michigan with gusts of 30-35 mph not out of
question making way for a blustery Friday afternoon.

After a quiet but nonetheless cloudy Saturday, attention will
turn to the potential for a period of lake effect snow Sunday as
an upper-level low skirts through southern ontario bringing cooler
850 mb temperatures to the great lakes. The deterministic GFS and
canadian models continue to suggest 850 mb temperatures will drop
to -10 to -12 c which would certainly be "good enough" for lake
effect snow (considering glerl-estimated lake michigan water
temperatures are somewhere near + 8 c), but the GEFS and ecmwf
ensemble means are closer to the -6 to -8 range suggesting mainly
an augmentation to cloud cover. For now, we'll favor the
aforementioned ensembles can carry chance pops mainly along and
west of us-131. (note-- this would appear to be the best shot at
snow on the ground before the holidays). There's also signal for a
weak clipper to skirt through Monday, but confidence is nowhere
near high that the feature will be present in the next suite of
model guidance.

Looking toward next week, there continues to be a signal that
deep troughing will develop over the western united states with
ridging across the east, potentially placing the great lakes in a
favorable region for active weather for the last week of the year.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 633 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
vfr conditions will continue through Wednesday afternoon. Winds
will be light from the south or variable overnight.

Marine
Issued at 234 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
southerly winds of 20-30 knots will lead to waves of 4-6 feet mainly
north of holland (and locally to 7 feet near the points) this
afternoon through Wednesday night as covered by the current small
craft advisory. After a brief reprieve Wednesday, north to northwest
winds of 20 to 30 knots will kick up waves to the 4 to 8 foot range
Friday and into Saturday, likely requiring another small craft
advisory. Winds and waves are then expected to settle down Sunday.

Hydrology
Issued at 234 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
river levels will remain steady or slowly fall through early next
week as little precipitation is expected. Rain showers Thursday will
transition to a rain snow mix Thursday night and Friday. Amounts
will be light and not have an impact on river levels. Additional
snow showers will be possible over the weekend and into early next
week, mainly near lake michigan. Daytime temperatures above freezing
for much of west michigan will mitigate the threat for ice jams.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 9 am est Thursday for lmz846>849.

Synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 13 mi27 min SSW 21 G 23 39°F 1017.7 hPa33°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 21 mi35 min S 14 G 17 37°F 1016.3 hPa32°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 47 mi37 min SSE 11 G 12 35°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 62 mi29 min SSW 12 G 19 38°F 31°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI9 mi22 minSSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy33°F24°F70%1017.5 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI23 mi24 minS 610.00 miFair32°F24°F73%1018 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE3E5SE4CalmS5S7SE6S6S8S8S6S7S6S6S6SE5S7
1 day agoW11W11
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NW12NW13NW10N9N10N14W9N8W10NW8NW10NW10NW8N7N5N3Calm
2 days agoE7CalmNW3N4NW5N3CalmE5E6E5SE5SE4SW4S4S5S3SW10SW7W6SW4SW5W7W7W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.