Sunday, May19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Monona, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:19PM Sunday May 19, 2019 5:45 AM CDT (10:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:18PMMoonset 6:16AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 506 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from noon cdt today through late tonight...
Today..East wind 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the morning, then rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the afternoon veering southwest with gusts to around 30 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Monday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon, then easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest late in the evening, then veering northwest after midnight becoming north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ644 Expires:201905191600;;108513 FZUS53 KMKX 191006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-191600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monona, WI
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location: 43.07, -89.32     debug

Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 190930
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
430 am cdt Sun may 19 2019

Short term
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

First area of showers, associated with warm air advection at 700
mb, will continue to rotate through the eastern parts of the area
over the next few hours. Cams suggest that once this moves
through, there may be a lull in the shower storm activity for
several hours into the morning.

Models suggest that the surface low will move from central iowa
into northern lower michigan today. This should allow the warm
front to move north through most of the area this morning,
bringing south winds behind it and warming temperatures. Cams
indicate a broken line of showers and storms will develop
somewhere over western or central portions of the area by later
this morning, along the advancing cold front. This will push east
through the rest of the area by middle afternoon. Gusty winds may
occur with the strongest storms. SPC marginal risk in the east
seems reasonable, as mean layer CAPE should be rather weak to
modest with strong deep layer shear.

Winds will shift southwest this afternoon and will be gusty.

Forecast soundings from more reasonable GFS model suggest gusts of
30 knots mixing down, with some to 35 knots or a little higher
possible near the illinois border. Will not issue a wind advisory
in that area, as perhaps a few 39 knot gusts would occur at best.

Mild highs in the 60s are expected, perhaps near 70 in far
southeast wisconsin. Brisk west to northwest winds tonight will
bring cool lows in the lower 40s in most areas.

Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence high.

Nnwly sfc flow will prevail with lake breeze development in the
afternoon for mon. Broken stratocumulus may linger much of the
day over ERN wi via cold air aloft. High pressure will finally
build into SRN wi for Mon aft-nt.

Another strong occluded low will develop over the SRN high plains
on Mon and move due nwd into the NRN great plains for wed. The
large upper wave and warm conveyor belt will extend ewd to SRN wi
for Tue and Tue nt with the main surge of lift and moisture for
tue nt. A few showers could linger into Wed am followed by the
passage of a warm front. Temps will warm well into the 70s
although a lake breeze will prevail over far ERN wi.

Long term Thursday through Saturday... Forecast confidence

Another round of cyclogenesis will occur from the central high
plains to the NRN great plains for thu-thu nt. The low will
occlude over the NRN great plains but then get kicked ewd across
the NRN great lakes and adjacent canada for fri-sat. Temps will
remain warm with chances of showers and slight chances of tstorms
at times.

Aviation(09z TAF updates)
One area of showers should continue to move through the eastern
parts of the area over the next several hours. Low ceilings of 200
to 500 feet should linger into this morning, before gradually
rising above 1000 feet this afternoon. Light fog may linger at
times into this morning, mainly above 3 miles.

Winds should shift to the south this morning, as the warm front
pushes back north into and through most of the area. These winds
will become southwest by midday and become gusty. West winds are
then expected by evening, remaining gusty, before shifting
northwest later tonight.

Broken line of showers and thunderstorms should develop along the
cold front by middle to late morning over the area. Some
uncertainty with where this will occur. This activity should shift
east across the rest of the area into middle afternoon, before
moving east of the area. Could see gusty winds occur with the
strongest storms.

Ceilings should gradually rise tonight, perhaps rising toVFR
category by later tonight.

Cancelled the marine dense fog advisory for the nearshore and
southern half of the open waters of lake michigan. Web cameras not
showing much in the way of fog over the lake at this time. Short
term models are also overdone with fog at this time, so not
confident in the fog re-developing this morning. Will continue to
mention patchy fog in the forecast for this morning across lake
michigan. The gusty winds this afternoon should end the fog risk.

Small craft advisory continues from midday through this evening
across the nearshore waters of lake michigan. Gusty south to
southwest winds are expected by midday and linger this afternoon
and evening, shifting to the west. Gusts to 30 knots are expected
this afternoon, with a few gusts approaching gale force near the
shoreline. The gusts should be around 25 knots this evening. Waves
should build to 3 to 5 feet this afternoon, subsiding this

Over the open waters, the strong inversion just above the surface
should limit mixing and wind gusts to 20 to 25 knots. There may
be higher gusts to 30 knots toward the nearshore waters, highest
closest to shore.

Gusty east winds are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday, which
should bring building waves to the western portions of the lake. A
small craft advisory will likely be needed.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from noon today to 1 am cdt Monday for

Today tonight and aviation marine... Wood
Monday through Saturday... Gehring

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 76 mi26 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 42°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 87 mi46 min NNE 9.9 G 11 44°F 1003.7 hPa (-2.4)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Madison, Dane County Regional-Truax Field, WI5 mi53 minE 55.00 miFog/Mist50°F48°F96%1001.8 hPa
Middleton Muni - Morey Field, WI12 mi71 minE 65.00 miOvercast51°F51°F99%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from MSN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE3E6E9SE9E6SE8E8E6SE8S4E4CalmCalmN6N9NE14NE12NE11NE13
1 day agoE13
2 days agoS9S9S9NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.