Wednesday, February20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Monona, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:36PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 5:45 PM CST (23:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:05PMMoonset 8:41AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 505 Pm Cst Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots veering west 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Patchy drizzle in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 feet subsiding to around 1 foot.
Thursday..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves nearly calm.
Friday..Northwest wind 5 knots veering southeast late in the morning, then rising to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:201902210500;;252746 FZUS53 KMKX 202306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 505 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-210500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monona, WI
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location: 43.07, -89.32     debug

Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 202340
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
540 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019

Update Bulk of precip lifting north of area, though still could
see a glancing shot of precip into northwest CWA with tail end of
wave there. Also still seeing spotty returns on kdmx and kdvn
radars though by and large this will likely diminish or stay
south. Many areas have risen above freezing. Will let the
advisory expire as planned at 00z, though some light precip may
still linger into the evening hours. Not expecting any problems
with any of this remaining light precipitation.


Aviation(00z tafs) Improvement on the horizon with ifr ceilings
trending to MVFR per cig heights upstream into eastern iowa. Low
level rh progs show a decrease later tonight into Thursday
morning. Plenty of clear air across much of western iowa and
that's what is in store for Thursday as low pressure continues to
pull away and a ridge of high pressure nears. Between the two,
southwest winds will be gusty at times and turn more westerly on


Prev discussion (issued 339 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019)

tonight into Thursday... Forecast confidence is high.

Winter weather advisory continues across the most of the area
until 6 pm cst this evening. Milwaukee, racine and kenosha
counties have risen above freezing for the most part, with just
light drizzle occurring. Thus, the advisory was allowed to expire
there at 3 pm cst.

Mainly freezing drizzle is occurring elsewhere over the southeast
half of the area, with some snow mixed in toward fond du lac and
sheboygan counties. Any untreated surfaces will see a glazing of
ice this afternoon.

The northwest half of the area still should see more snow with
some freezing drizzle mixed in at times. Another half inch or so
of accumulation is expected toward the dells area.

All of this precipitation is being driven by the strong
differential cyclonic vorticity advection, which will shift the
precipitation north of the area by 6 pm cst. Thus, will keep the
advisory going for the rest of the area until then, as there may
still be slick untreated roads for the evening commute. Cooling
with nightfall may allow for some re-freezing of moisture on roads
as well.

Gusty southwest to west winds will bring drier air into the area
tonight, with clouds gradually thinning from west to east later
tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure will bring quiet
weather and some sunshine for Thursday, with lighter winds.

Temperatures will drop into the upper teens to lower 20s tonight,
then rise to around 30 on Thursday.

Thursday night and Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

Surface high pressure centered over the area will keep it quiet
before the next major system hits this weekend. Temps will likely
radiate out quickly Thursday evening, before elevated warm air
advection clouds arrive after midnight. This will put the brakes
on the temp fall the rest of the night. Look for highs in the mid
30s on Friday.

Friday night through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A major mid level system pushing through the pacific northwest
today (Wednesday) will dig into the 4-corners region on Friday,
then eject quickly to the northeast, reaching the western great
lakes by Saturday night, possibly as a negatively tilted closed
low. The associated surface low will undergo rapid cyclogenesis as
the intensifying mid level wave lifts up here. An average of the
guidance suggests the surface low will track across far southeast
wisconsin. The GFS is farthest west, while the ECMWF is suggesting
far NE il and the gem is in between. The surface low will deepen
to around 987mb, so expect some wind, especially on the back side
on Sunday.

An initial wave of increasing moisture and warm air
advection associated with the pattern shift from zonal to more
southerly ahead of the trough will bring clouds and the potential
for our first round of precip later Friday night into Saturday.

Temp profiles show surface temps below freezing, but an impressive
warm nose between 900-850mb of 4-6c. As a result, we expect a
period of freezing rain across all of southern wisconsin with this
initial wave through Saturday morning, likely needing a winter
weather advisory at some point.

The temp profile then warms enough to support all rain Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening, before colder air begins to
infiltrate on the back side of the low exiting to the east. That
will result in a complicated transition back to a wintry mix and
then all snow. Given the overall warm solution, the better snow
accums will be up across central and northern wisconsin. Our ice
accums should stay below any warning criteria. Given the snowpack,
the warmer temps and potential decent rainfall, we'll have to
keep an eye on the potential for flooding by early next week.

This storm system will be lifting out of here quickly on Sunday,
so look for precip to shut down Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. We could see west to northwest winds strong enough to
support a wind advisory on Sunday, frequent gusts to 40-45 mph

Monday... Forecast confidence is medium.

There is good agreement, and not surprising, that high pressure
will arrive in the wake of the departing storm. Look for quiet,
but cold conditions on Monday.

Tuesday... Forecast confidence is low.

The GFS and the canadian bring a fast moving, weak low pressure
system through here on Tuesday, while the ECMWF maintains surface
high pressure with a mid level wave pushing through. We could see
a period of light snow around this time, but confidence is low at
this point.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

look for mainly drizzle across the eastern terminals late this
afternoon, as surface temperatures have risen above freezing.

There may still be some light freezing drizzle at waukesha, with
some light snow to the north of there. Any untreated surfaces
will see a glazing of ice.

Areas toward madison and north west of there should see more of a
snow and freezing drizzle mix, with mainly snow toward the
wisconsin dells. May see another half inch or so of snow
accumulation toward the dells, lower to the south and east.

The precipitation will move north and out of the area by early
this evening.

Expect around 1 mile visibilities with ceilings around 500 feet
with the precipitation late this afternoon, before improving to
vfr category this evening. Winds will shift south late this
afternoon, then become gusty as they shift to the southwest to
west this evening, lingering into later tonight before weakening
somewhat on Thursday. Ceilings will gradually rise toVFR category
by later tonight, scattering out on Thursday.


nearshore waters...

small craft advisory continues until 9 am cst Thursday. Winds will
veer south to southwest at 10 to 15 knots, then veer southwest to
west and increase to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Waves
will build to 3 to 6 feet in ice free areas into early evening,
before subsiding to 1 to 2 feet by later tonight.

Open waters...

gale warning has been extended for the south half of the lake
until 3 am cst Thursday morning, and has been issued from 6 pm cst
this evening until 3 am cst Thursday morning for the next two
tiers of marine zones to the north.

Southeast winds to 30 knots are expected to veer southwest to
west this evening, with gales to 35 knots into the overnight
hours. Waves will build to 6 to 9 feet occasionally to 12 feet on
the western shore of the lake into this evening, in ice free
areas. High waves will then develop on the eastern parts of the
lake later tonight, in ice free areas.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for wiz046-

Lm... Small craft advisory until 3 am cst Thursday for lmz080-669-671-

Gale warning until 6 pm cst this evening for lmz080-669-671-673-

Gale warning until 3 am cst Thursday for lmz366-565-567-868.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for lmz643>646.

Small craft advisory from 3 am to 9 am cst Thursday for

Tonight Thursday and aviation marine... Wood
Thursday night through Wednesday... Davis

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 76 mi36 min SW 7 G 8.9 34°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 80 mi66 min S 8 G 11 33°F 1005.1 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 87 mi46 min WSW 11 G 20 36°F 1004.7 hPa (-0.4)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Madison, Dane County Regional-Truax Field, WI5 mi53 minSW 6 G 1610.00 miOvercast34°F30°F85%1004.1 hPa
Middleton Muni - Morey Field, WI12 mi51 minWSW 9 G 1710.00 miOvercast35°F31°F87%1003.4 hPa

Wind History from MSN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS6SE3CalmCalmSE5E4E5E7E7E8E8E10E10E15E13E12
1 day agoCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3S5S6S7S6S5S7
2 days agoNE15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.