Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ferrysburg, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 9:30PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 1:10 AM EDT (05:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 11:52PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 946 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt Wednesday through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny until midday, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet late in the day.
LMZ846 Expires:201706280915;;928482 FZUS53 KGRR 280146 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 946 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-280915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferrysburg, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.09, -86.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kgrr 280417
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1217 am edt Wed jun 28 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 324 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
quiet and comfortable weather will continue tonight into the first
half of Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
Wednesday afternoon, and will be likely Wednesday night as a low
pressure system approaches the area. Some of the storms could be a
bit strong with hail, winds, and heavy rain all being threats.

Storms will continue into Thursday morning before diminishing some
as a front pushes south of the area.

Showers and storms will return late Thursday night and more so
Friday as another wave of low pressure moves up over the area.

Cooler weather will move in over the weekend with small chances of
rain possible.

Update
Issued at 951 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
the on going forecast looks good to me so I not planning any
updates at this time.

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 324 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
our main concern in the short term portion of the fcst is on pcpn
trends as rain moves in late wed, and severe weather chances with
storms Wednesday night.

Quiet weather is expected through Wednesday morning across the area.

Ridging has taken over control over the area for the most part,
except for a few sprinkles across the far eastern portion of the
area this afternoon. This is a result of the upper jet and an
embedded short wave still nearby on the far WRN portion of the upper
low now east of the area. All areas will clear out once the diurnal
cumulus dissipate toward sunset.

Wednesday will start out clear, but will see an increase in cloud
cover by afternoon, and rain likely across the NW by evening.

Ridging will give way to a fairly decent short wave that is
currently located over the mt wy area. This short wave will ride in
fairly quick due to the upper flow becoming more zonal as the upper
low departs. Strong moisture transport via a 60 knot low level jet
will begin to arrive Wed afternoon, and will be overhead Wed night.

The nose of the low level jet will be aimed more at central and
northern michigan, where we expect the best concentration of storms.

Thunder chances look to come after 00z Thu when the more unstable
conditions arrive.

Some of the storms could become stronger, and heavy rain will be a
threat. Forecast soundings indicate some decent CAPE profiles in the
-10 to -30c layer based on elevated instability. The low level jet
will supply quite a bit of wind energy, and there is not a
significant inversion to entirely protect us with some better
updrafts. Heavy downpours will be a threat as pwats will be climbing
to almost 2.0 inches. The good thing is the low level jet will be
progressive, so we do not expect much larger scale training.

The showers and storms will tend to diminish in coverage and
intensity a bit on Thu as the low level jet departs. The cold front
will be sinking south through the area, not likely moving out of the
area until the evening hours. This could produce some additional
convection if enough instability can build ahead of the front. This
will be focused more on the southern areas for thu. There will be a
brief break Thu evening, before more convection tries to move in
toward daybreak Friday morning.

Long term (Friday through Tuesday)
issued at 324 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
the main weather challenges deal with the timing and strength of any
thunderstorms in the long term. Overall confidence is increasing on
strong severe storms for Friday.

Models are coming into better agreement in supporting a round or two
of strong severe storms on Friday. The combination of stronger deep
layer shear of over 40 knots... Plenty of instability and a
strengthening upper level jet support this potential. Will increase
the pops and QPF for this period.

For Friday evening... We are shown to hold onto some instability.

Will keep the risk for thunderstorms going. Later at night the
atmosphere is shown to become stable. As a result... Will go with
only some rain showers then.

A warm front is forecasted by the high res euro to lift northward
back into the region on Tuesday. Elevated instability is shown.

Will feature some thunderstorms then. The low level wind fields are
shown to be faster about the same as the upper level winds. Commonly
this leads to slower moving storms. This could lead to a heavy rain
risk. The GFS though... Is further south with the front and keeps it
out of the area. Will keep a low chance for storms going in the
southern parts of the cwa.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1205 am edt Wed jun 28 2017
vfr conditions will continue at all the terminals overnight
through most of Wednesday afternoon. The only exception to this is
at kmkg where showers and perhaps a thunderstorm could move in by
mid to late Wednesday afternoon into the evening and cause brief
reductions to ifr MVFR.

Breezy conditions will develop Wednesday as south winds
increase to around 15 kts with frequent gusts to around 25 kts
from midday through the afternoon and evening. Some showers may
affect kgrr by mid to late evening but most of the thunderstorms
should stay north to northwest of most of our area through 06z
Thursday.

Marine
Issued at 324 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
we will be issuing a beach hazards statement and small craft
advisory with this forecast package for Wednesday into Thursday.

Winds will begin to increase overnight tonight ahead of the next
incoming system that will arrive late wed. Winds and waves will come
up enough to become a hazard on Wed from north to south. These winds
will remain up through Thu when the cold front will move through and
a weaker gradient will move in.

Hydrology
Issued at 324 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
the chippewa and pine river warnings have been downgraded to
advisories with continued improvement. The pine river levels are
dropping at a rate such that the advisory could potentially be
dropped by this time tomorrow. The chippewa river will experience a
more gradual fall. The majority of river in a stretch from ludington
eastward remain elevated, as well.

Additional rainfall is slated for late Wednesday into Thursday. This
midweek precipitation has the potential to delay improvement,
keeping rivers elevated. Additional rainfall could affect the area
again by Friday. Details in the exact placement of the heaviest rain
is still not certain, but the potential exists for more than 3
inches of rain to fall in some places over the next 5-7 days.

Further south, rivers are slightly above to near normal. Given
recent rainfall totals, river levels are almost certain to rise if
forecast precipitation amounts are achieved through the next week.

Those living near rivers should pay close attention to forecast
updates and monitor river trends closely.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt Wednesday through Thursday
afternoon for miz037-043-050-056-064-071.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 8 am Wednesday to 2 pm edt Thursday
for lmz844>849.

Update... Wdm
synopsis... Njj
short term... Njj
long term... Mjs
aviation... Laurens
hydrology... Jam
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45161 9 mi31 min S 12 G 14 66°F 65°F2 ft1016.9 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 11 mi21 min SSW 11 G 11 65°F 1016.8 hPa58°F
45029 13 mi21 min SSW 12 G 14 67°F 67°F2 ft1017.3 hPa56°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi41 min SSE 8 G 11 66°F 1016.9 hPa
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 48 mi31 min SE 8.9 G 11 63°F
45168 48 mi21 min SSE 9.7 G 12 65°F 69°F1 ft1017.8 hPa50°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 60 mi41 min SSW 8.9 G 13 64°F 54°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last
24hr
NW12
G15
NE7
NE3
W11
W7
W9
SW11
SW13
G16
W15
W10
SW8
SW11
SW11
SW12
SW11
SW9
S11
S11
S12
S11
S10
S6
S8
G11
SE6
G9
1 day
ago
W18
G22
W19
G23
W17
G21
NW17
W15
G19
W16
W18
G22
W18
W17
W15
W12
G17
W14
G17
W14
G17
W11
W15
NW23
W14
W11
NW11
G14
NW12
NW15
NW15
NW13
NW14
G18
2 days
ago
W18
W16
W16
W16
W15
SW17
W18
W18
SW19
SW19
SW18
SW17
SW15
SW12
SW12
SW11
SW11
SW11
W14
W19
W17

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI7 mi16 minS 310.00 miFair58°F53°F84%1017.3 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI24 mi18 minSSE 510.00 miFair56°F48°F75%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W8W7
G15
W10W9W8W9W9W9SW10SW8SW10SW11SW10S7S6S6S5S3
1 day agoW11
G18
W11W13
G20
W10W10W8W9W8
G16
W10
G19
W12
G18
W12
G22
W16W15
G21
W13NW12
G17
NW12W11
G17
NW10NW8W5NW6NW7NW10NW6
2 days agoW14W15
G21
W10W12W9W7W7W8W13
G21
W16
G21
W16
G22
W18
G22
W12
G23
SW13
G19
W9W8W8SW6W5SW4SW5NW7W4W12
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.