Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ferrysburg, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 8:11PM Thursday March 30, 2017 6:46 AM EDT (10:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:20AMMoonset 10:24PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 312 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..East winds to 30 knots. Showers until midday, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Light showers likely in the evening, then a chance of light showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Light showers likely until midday, then a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
LMZ846 Expires:201703301515;;299586 FZUS53 KGRR 300712 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 312 AM EDT THU MAR 30 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ846-301515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferrysburg, MI
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location: 43.09, -86.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 300849
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
449 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 323 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
wet conditions are expected through Friday evening with a chance for
thunderstorms today and early tonight mainly south of i-96. After a
dry Saturday, the next period of rain begins Sunday and lasts into
the beginning of the coming work week. After seasonably cool
temperatures today and Friday, temperatures this weekend and much of
the coming week will be near or above normal with highs in the
50s.

Update
Issued at 449 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
after discussion with gaylord office, have bumped up snow amounts
slightly over northern clare and osceola counties where a strong
fgen band continues just north of us-10 in a region with a marginally
favorable wet bulb zero profile. This is a very sensitive tipping
point type of scenario in which there could be enough local
diabatic cooling beneath the band to change precip over to snow
with a quick accumulation. Or on the other hand, temperatures
will remain warm enough to curtail accumulations. The area in
question is sparsely populated, but we did obtain a report of
little or no snow falling around luther beneath the band that has
been sampled fairly well by the kapx radar. Again, we may still
end up with little or no accumulations in clare and osceola
counties, but this certainly has gotten our attention.

Short term (today through Saturday)
issued at 323 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
have scaled back snow accumulations slightly based on warmer
temperatures. Main area of concern for snow continues to be
northeast zones where surface dewpoints in the low to mid 20s
combined with mid 30s temps will likely keep wet bulb zero height
low enough for accumulations. Also, radar continues to show an
fgen band extending eastward across the us-10 corridor, so there
certainly remains potential for accumulations into mid morning
with localized moderate to briefly heavy precipitation.

Sref and particularly deterministic runs like the rap spread
sufficient instability / MUCAPE > 250 j per kg / into the forecast
area that has correlated well with lightning upstream. Will
closely follow the SPC day1 general thunder outlook area for
delineation. Discussed with iwx and agree that thunder threat
could linger after dark to the east.

Otherwise, good agreement on precipitation exiting the area Friday
evening.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 323 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
split flow will continue through the period and will feature the
type of weather we've been experiencing for the last several days.

High pressure over the great lakes Saturday night will move east as
low pressure over the southern plains moves northeast. The northern
stream trough will move across southern ontario as the southern
stream counterpart moves across the arklatex. There will be some
phasing Sunday over the ohio valley and so we can expect some light
rain. These systems have been taking a day and a half or so to move
through and so wet weather is anticipated from Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. After that a day or so of dry weather with
short wave ridging moving over the state followed by another plains
low moving toward the great lakes. This system would affect the cwa
Wednesday or so and appears on models a bit deeper than the system
currently moving through the cwa. So that will likely result in a
bit warmer air being pulled north into lower michigan Wednesday. We
don't have thunder in the grids yet, but wouldn't be surprised to
see it eventually.

Highs will be mostly in the 50s through the period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 137 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
low pressure will steadily advance toward lower michigan today.

Rain will continue to overspread the CWA and cigs/vsbys will
respond by dropping to ifr conditions this afternoon. It's
possible that some wet snow and/or sleet could mix in at grr/lan
through early morning and it's also possible that a thunderstorm
could be in the vicinity of the i-94 TAF sites later this
afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 323 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
made minor tweaks to extend southern SCA headline times based on
latest ww3 guidance. Strong offshore component to flow will limit
wave growth today, but expect 3 to 5 footers to be more common by
evening.

Hydrology
Issued at 1158 am edt Wed mar 29 2017
widespread precipitation is expected across west michigan from
late tonight through Friday. Basin average amounts of three
quarters of an inch to an inch can be expected. Area rivers levels
are currently elevated from the previous rainfall event... With
advisories in place for ionia, hastings, and holt. While most local
rivers should experience falling stages through tonight... The
precipitation over the next 36 hours will create a new round of
rises to develop. Current advisory products attempt to illustrate
this scenario.

Some of the 12z model output suggests heavier precipitation than
currently included as input to the river models. These higher
amounts... If they materialize... Could produce above bankfull
rises on many more rivers and streams across west michigan. Those
with interests on area rivers should closely monitor the
situation.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Friday for lmz848-849.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for lmz844>847.

Update... Tjt
synopsis... Tjt
short term... Tjt
long term... 04
aviation... 04
hydrology... Mws
marine... Tjt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 11 mi37 min E 11 G 17 37°F 1017.6 hPa33°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi47 min ENE 11 G 15
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 48 mi67 min E 11 G 13 40°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 60 mi47 min E 7 G 9.9 38°F 24°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI7 mi52 minE 98.00 miRain37°F33°F86%1016.6 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI24 mi54 minE 97.00 miRain37°F0°F%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE5E7E7SE5E7
G18
3NW8CalmE8E11E10E12NE10E13E8E12E14E14E13E14
G22
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1 day agoN6N5N6NE6N3N7E64NW6W6W9W8W6W3W3CalmCalmCalmS3SE4CalmE3CalmCalm
2 days agoW4W6W6W6NW5W3CalmW4W7NW5W7NW7NW5NW6N7N5N4N5N7N6N7N5N6N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.