Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ferrysburg, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 7:38PM Sunday September 24, 2017 8:19 AM EDT (12:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:55AMMoonset 9:22PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 335 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Today..Southeast winds around 10 knots veering west late in the day. Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tonight..East winds around 10 knots veering southeast after midnight. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering west late in the day. Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot.
Monday night..North winds around 5 knots veering southeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves less than 1 foot.
LMZ846 Expires:201709241515;;848599 FZUS53 KGRR 240735 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 335 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-241515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferrysburg, MI
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location: 43.09, -86.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 241119
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
719 am edt Sun sep 24 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 324 am edt Sun sep 24 2017
our unusably late season heat wave will last into Tuesday before
a cold front finally comes through early Wednesday to bring in
cooler air. A second cold front late in the week will bring
seasonably chilly air into the area. It is not out of the question
we could have showers and even a thunderstorm early Wednesday
with that cold front but at this point widespread precipitation
is not expected.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 324 am edt Sun sep 24 2017
today will be day four of our unprecedented late season heat
wave. Monday will likely be day five for this heat wave (3 or
more consecutive days with highs of 90 or more). Tuesday is on
the fence for day six since heights and thickness fall as the
front gets closer. Still it would not surprise me that most areas
inland will still have highs near 90. I would expect daily record
highs will again be set today and Monday at grand rapids, lansing
and likely muskegon.

There are two things working together that are helping the upper
high to remain in place into Monday. First and foremost is the
deep western trough. Second is the upper level outflow from maria.

Finally through, an upstream shortwave over the eastern pacific
gets close enough to the western CONUS trough to push it north
and east over the top of our upper ridge feature. It is for that
reason (the through is forced over the upper ridge) that keeps the
better dynamics north of southwest michigan, limiting the chances
for convection with the front.

The lack of rain and subsidence under the upper ridge is helping
to lower surface dew points some. Today those lower surface dew
points will make the heat stress a touch less. The maximum heat
index values will mostly be at or under 95 degrees instead of near
100 degree as they have been at many of our observation sites the
past 3 days.

The subsidence under the upper high will also make day time
heating convection very unlikely the next two days. Even on
Tuesday model sounding are only marginal at best for afternoon
convection.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 324 am edt Sun sep 24 2017
after a period of record, to near record high temperatures early in
the week, a sharp change in temperatures is still expected in the
wed Thu time frame as a cold front pushes through. H8 temps plunge
from around 16c Tuesday night to 6c by Wednesday night. Wednesday
will still be mild with highs in the 70s, but Thursday should only
see 60s for highs. 60s, or even some highs in the upper 50s, should
continue into next weekend.

Rain chances however appear to remain low through the week. We may
see widely scattered or isolated showers and storms with the front
Tuesday night. Then as the pattern shifts to a more northwest flow
we may see more widely scattered showers Friday and Friday night.

The ECMWF has an upper low moving into the great lakes in this time
frame, the GFS and it's ensembles show high pressure building in
from the west. More likely is that a quicker moving short wave
comes through Friday and perhaps some lake effect showers Friday
night with h8 temps lowering to around 4c.

All in all, a significant shift towards fall for the latter half of
the week, with nearly a 40 degree temperature drop from this weekend
to next weekend. However, a well needed soaking rain does not
appear in the offering.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 717 am edt Sun sep 24 2017
any patchy fog should be gone by 15z, otherwise clear skies and
for the most part a light south southeast winds into Monday.

Marine
Issued at 324 am edt Sun sep 24 2017
surface high pressure overhead will continue to mean light winds.

This will keep wave highs favorable for beach activities as will
the bright sunshine an unseasonably warm lake surface
temperatures. The frontal system early Wednesday may have enough
wind to result in a small craft advisory.

Hydrology
Issued at 1131 am edt Sat sep 23 2017
rivers are running around normal to below normal for the time of
year. Meanwhile, the us drought monitor is indicating dry conditions
across southern lower michigan. Near-record warmth is expected today
through Monday. The next good chance for rain is Wednesday. No river
issues are expected through the week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Wdm
short term... Wdm
long term... Jk
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... 63
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45161 9 mi60 min SE 9.7 G 9.7 71°F 69°F1019.1 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 11 mi30 min ESE 4.1 G 7 71°F 1019.1 hPa62°F
45029 13 mi30 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 70°F1 ft1019.2 hPa62°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi50 min E 5.1 G 9.9 71°F 1019.1 hPa
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 48 mi50 min ESE 12 G 15 69°F
45168 48 mi30 min SSE 9.7 G 12 71°F 71°F1 ft1019.4 hPa61°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 60 mi50 min E 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 62°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI7 mi25 minESE 310.00 miFair66°F61°F84%1019.5 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI24 mi27 minSE 310.00 miFair63°F59°F87%1019.9 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S6S6SW6W7SW7SW8SW6SW5W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE5SE4SE3CalmSE3SE4SE3
1 day agoSE4S5S9S8S9SW9SW7W9W6S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4CalmSE6SE4CalmSE3SE3
2 days agoCalmS7S9SW10SW5SW7SW5W4NW5NW3S3SE3CalmSE4SE6SE6SE7SE6SE6SE3SE4CalmCalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.