Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ferrysburg, MI
May 6, 2024 6:15 PM EDT (22:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 4:33 AM Moonset 6:27 PM |
LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 405 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Through early evening - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - East winds 15 to 25 knots. Clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots veering southwest after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots veering northwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night - Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots backing north 20 to 25 knots late in the day. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Friday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday - West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 061913 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 313 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday
- Wet and Cool Weather for the end of the week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
- Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday
Severe storms are just developing over the Plains in response to strong dynamics being produced by low pressure over the northern Plains along a warm/occluded frontal band
These storms
in weakening mode...will move east tonight and move toward Lower MI Tuesday morning. These storms will be weakening as they move across the cwa Tuesday morning due to drier air and limited instability.
Once the initial showers/storms move across by late morning, we'll likely see a lull of a couple of hours and with more storm redevelopment during the mid afternoon. CAPE values increase dramatically behind the frontal boundary and will be helped out by any clearing that we see. An approaching strong short wave that's ejected out of the Plains upper low will support convective redevelopment. Dewpoints surge into the lower 60s behind the front. Strong shear in the 55 kt range coupled with 1k+ j/kg SBCAPE, 6.5-7 C/km mid level lapse rates 40kt LLJ and a 75kt mid level jet will support organization. In this case, the strongest dynamics will remain south of the cwa, but will be strong enough to produce a wind and hail threat from roughly 3pm-8pm. SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk for severe storms generally south of I-96 with a Marginal Risk for most of the rest of the cwa. Any lingering showers/storms should be out of the cwa by 06z Wednesday.
- Wet and Cool Weather for the end of the week
A positive tilted mid level wave will be tracking through the Great Lakes region later Wednesday and into Thursday. PWATs climb as this feature tracks through topping an inch in southern parts of the CWA
This is a good setup for period of steady rain, which will also act to keep the temperatures down. The models do vary considerably with the location and amounts of rain. The GFS has been steady in showing a swath of heavier rain for Muskegon River basin, while the ECMWF and GEM are aiming the precipitation further south and trending further south.
Another mid level wave comes down from the Canadian Prairies on Friday night. This wave will bring down another surge of cool air and there could even be some lake effect rain showers with this second wave. While qpf is projected to be light, given the enhancement of the moisture from Lake MI, we will nudge up the POPs for Friday night into Saturday to account for this. With 850 mb temps struggling to top 0 deg C, the daytime temperatures are likely to stay at least several degrees below normal for both Friday and Saturday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
The atmosphere will remain relatively dry into the start of Tuesday so VFR conditions are predicted. An overall east to southeast flow will prevail as an area of high pressure retreats northeastward into southern Ontario and into Quebec. A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be moving into the southwest TAF sites of KMKG, KAZO and KBTL by noon so we featured conditions trending downward at that time. Thunderstorms were not included as there is some uncertainty of whether there will still be thunderstorms as the band of precipitation moves in near the end of the forecast period.
MARINE
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Southeast wind gusts will increase to around 20 knots tonight which may touch on advisory criteria for a few hours Tuesday morning, but given the offshore flow and the short duration, we'll hold off on a headline for now.
Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning and again Tuesday afternoon, which the afternoon storms being potentially strong to severe.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 313 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday
- Wet and Cool Weather for the end of the week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
- Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday
Severe storms are just developing over the Plains in response to strong dynamics being produced by low pressure over the northern Plains along a warm/occluded frontal band
These storms
in weakening mode...will move east tonight and move toward Lower MI Tuesday morning. These storms will be weakening as they move across the cwa Tuesday morning due to drier air and limited instability.
Once the initial showers/storms move across by late morning, we'll likely see a lull of a couple of hours and with more storm redevelopment during the mid afternoon. CAPE values increase dramatically behind the frontal boundary and will be helped out by any clearing that we see. An approaching strong short wave that's ejected out of the Plains upper low will support convective redevelopment. Dewpoints surge into the lower 60s behind the front. Strong shear in the 55 kt range coupled with 1k+ j/kg SBCAPE, 6.5-7 C/km mid level lapse rates 40kt LLJ and a 75kt mid level jet will support organization. In this case, the strongest dynamics will remain south of the cwa, but will be strong enough to produce a wind and hail threat from roughly 3pm-8pm. SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk for severe storms generally south of I-96 with a Marginal Risk for most of the rest of the cwa. Any lingering showers/storms should be out of the cwa by 06z Wednesday.
- Wet and Cool Weather for the end of the week
A positive tilted mid level wave will be tracking through the Great Lakes region later Wednesday and into Thursday. PWATs climb as this feature tracks through topping an inch in southern parts of the CWA
This is a good setup for period of steady rain, which will also act to keep the temperatures down. The models do vary considerably with the location and amounts of rain. The GFS has been steady in showing a swath of heavier rain for Muskegon River basin, while the ECMWF and GEM are aiming the precipitation further south and trending further south.
Another mid level wave comes down from the Canadian Prairies on Friday night. This wave will bring down another surge of cool air and there could even be some lake effect rain showers with this second wave. While qpf is projected to be light, given the enhancement of the moisture from Lake MI, we will nudge up the POPs for Friday night into Saturday to account for this. With 850 mb temps struggling to top 0 deg C, the daytime temperatures are likely to stay at least several degrees below normal for both Friday and Saturday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
The atmosphere will remain relatively dry into the start of Tuesday so VFR conditions are predicted. An overall east to southeast flow will prevail as an area of high pressure retreats northeastward into southern Ontario and into Quebec. A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be moving into the southwest TAF sites of KMKG, KAZO and KBTL by noon so we featured conditions trending downward at that time. Thunderstorms were not included as there is some uncertainty of whether there will still be thunderstorms as the band of precipitation moves in near the end of the forecast period.
MARINE
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Southeast wind gusts will increase to around 20 knots tonight which may touch on advisory criteria for a few hours Tuesday morning, but given the offshore flow and the short duration, we'll hold off on a headline for now.
Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning and again Tuesday afternoon, which the afternoon storms being potentially strong to severe.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45161 | 9 mi | 35 min | 1 ft | |||||
| MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 11 mi | 15 min | E 9.9G | 70°F | 29.91 | 40°F | ||
| 45029 | 13 mi | 25 min | E 7.8G | 64°F | 54°F | 1 ft | 46°F | |
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 22 mi | 45 min | E 7G | 71°F | 60°F | 29.89 | ||
| 45168 | 48 mi | 25 min | NNW 5.8G | 60°F | 54°F | 0 ft | 29.93 | 49°F |
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 48 mi | 15 min | ESE 1.9G | 72°F | ||||
| LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI | 60 mi | 45 min | N 5.1G | 64°F | 43°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMKG MUSKEGON COUNTY,MI | 6 sm | 20 min | E 12G17 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 73°F | 45°F | 36% | 29.94 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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