Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 3:14 AM   Moonset 1:27 PM

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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 305 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Through early evening - East wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Tonight - East wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then veering southwest early in the morning. Rain showers likely through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning. Friday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then veering southeast late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday night - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing northeast late in the evening, then backing north after midnight becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Saturday - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then veering southeast early in the afternoon backing east late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 022021 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI Issued by National Weather Service Green Bay WI 321 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for thunderstorms tonight. An isolated strong storm possible this evening near the Illinois state line, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

- Limited rain chances late Saturday into Saturday night, followed by additional precipitation chances for the early to middle portion of next workweek.

SHORT TERM
(Issued 320 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024)

Tonight and Friday:

Low pressure is stationed over central Iowa north of Des Moines this afternoon with warm front into far northern Illinois.
Earlier convection that moved through late this morning through midday formed along nose of H85 moisture advection and on northern edge of weak elevated CAPE has shifted north of the area to central Lake Michigan while next round of showers moving into southwest WI is just ahead of primary lead shortwave lifting across WI into early evening. Also starting to see sfc based convection developing over far northern Illinois. Isolated severe storm has developed recently to the southwest of Chicago.

Warm front that severe cell has formed along is trying to edge into far southern Wisconsin and should gradually make it but maybe not until after 20-22z/3-5pm. Warm front very well could get hung up even longer over far SE Wisconsin closer to Lake Michigan due to cool/moist and stable SE flow off Lake Michigan. Changes to the pops/wx through this evening were not too significant. Still like idea showed by various hi-res models and continuity that showers and some thunderstorms will redevelop over far southern WI vcnty of the warm front. This convection will have slightly more instability to work on especially near the Illinois state line where if the warm front can fully arrive (sfc dewpoints to around 60) our area will be on the northern edge of MLCAPES up to 1000J/kg. Effective shear for convection to work with is more than sufficient with at least 30 kts so if convective initiation can occur, then would have potential for isolated strong to severe storm, especially with the warm front nearby.

After midnight, main cold front sweeps eastward across the area.
Continued to carry a chance for some showers and isolated thunder before precip chances end around daybreak as the cold front moves across Lake Michigan. Forecast soundings show some mid clouds and low clouds quickly evading from west to east in wake of the front leading to mostly sunny skies areawide by mid morning. Lows tonight will settle into mainly the lower 50s while highs on Friday will reach around 70. Cooler temps are likely in the afternoon near the lake due to a lake breeze off Lake Michigan.

JLA



LONG TERM
Issued 320 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Friday Night through Thursday:

Precipitation...Dry weather will reside over the forecast area for Friday night, before the next chance for precip arrives on Saturday from a disjointed surface cold front and trailing upper-level trough. Models are still showing the better instability to be south of the forecast area, where the surface low center is located, but cannot rule out the low potential for some thunderstorms along the WI/IL border. This system also appears to move quickly across the area (exiting by Saturday night), so anticipate the majority of the forecast area to see QPF amounts less than a half inch.

Surface high pressure follows for Sunday, allowing plenty of sunshine over the area. Upper-level ridging will then build over the Upper Mississippi Valley for Monday, as the high pressure gradually departs and causes low-level winds to turn easterly and increase.

The next system will wrap up over the Northern Plains and allow the southwest flow ahead of it to bring southern stream energy and moisture into the Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Much uncertainty remains with this system in terms of timing and placement.
Regardless of this, convective parameters at this time appear to provide enough support for thunderstorms, potentially strong or severe, to develop sometime Tuesday afternoon or evening. Given there is still time for changes to occur, will continue to monitor the potential for strong or severe storms.

Temperatures...Saturday's temperatures will be tricky to nail down given the presence of a cold front and precip. For now, have temperatures rising into the low to mid 70s for inland locations, and mid to upper 60s along the lakeshore. Similar temperatures are expected for Sunday and Monday, with the high pressure overhead.
Tuesday is looking to be the warmest day through the long term forecast, as the forecast are has the potential to be in the warm sector. This would allow temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s.

Kruk

AVIATION
(Issued 320 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024)

After earlier showers and thunder that impacted mainly the MSN and SBM terminals, a lull has developed that will last through mid afternoon. By late afternoon, scattered showers pressing in from the west along with warm front lifting in from northern Illinois will bring additional showers and thunder to especially JVL, UES and MKE after 21-22z. Have covered the thunderstorm potential with TEMPO groups in the TAFs. Conditions will generally be VFR through the evening, but brief MVFR is possible during heavier showers and thunderstorms. Later tonight, a period of more widespread MVFR conditions is expected before skies begin to clear late tonight.

JLA

MARINE
(Issued 320 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024)

Low pressure over Iowa will lift northeast to the Wisconsin/Upper Peninsula border by 1 am tonight and northern Lake Superior by 7 am Friday. As the low passes west of Lake Michigan, winds will be veering from the east this afternoon to the south tonight, then to the west on Friday morning. Areas of fog will be possible from late evening into Friday morning prior to winds shifting to the west.

Lighter winds are expected Friday under high pressure. A lake breeze will likely develop on Friday afternoon. A cold front will pass across Lake Michigan on Saturday afternoon and evening that could create some thunderstorms on the southern half of the Lake.
Then high pressure returns for late in the weekend. Winds will then likely be 15 knots or less through the upcoming weekend.

MPC



MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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