Wednesday, February20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Madison, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:36PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 1:13 AM CST (07:13 UTC) Moonrise 8:05PMMoonset 8:42AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 106 Am Cst Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of snow after midnight, then chance of snow early in the morning. Waves around 1 foot building to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Wednesday..East wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots veering southeast with gusts to around 30 knots early in the afternoon, then veering south 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Snow in the morning. Freezing rain through the day. Rain and a chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots veering west 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of rain and light freezing rain through around midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet subsiding to around 1 foot.
Thursday..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:201902201000;;215408 FZUS53 KMKX 200706 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-201000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison, WI
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location: 43.09, -89.43     debug

Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 200509
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1109 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019

Update Increasing pops a bit in the southwest with things
having saturated and light snow occuring at kdbq. Better returns
evolving on radar with a drift towards southwest wi. Overall,
forecast headlines look on track. May need to eventually add some
more fzra in the west as some solutions showing a little quicker
loss to cloud ice there but getting mixed signals on this from
model soundings lending less confidence to a forecast change at
this time.


Aviation(06z tafs) Vfr conditions holding sway even at light
evening with dry influence in place. However things are saturating
quicker across east central ia with these better radar returns
shifting north and eventually northeast. So potential for light
snow to get going after 06z in the southwest. The last areas to
see the light snow will be our far eastern and northeastern locales
which will be after about 09z or so. A lowering of ceilings will
occur overnight as the column saturates further with increasing
isentropic ascent. The dry influence holds on longest with the
nam solution. With loss of cloud ice taking hold expecting freezing
rain development towards mid morning. Ifr ceilings will become widespread
Wednesday morning with vsbys mostly ifr, though some may slip into
the lifr category. Expecting improvement in all facets from late
afternoon into the evening on Wednesday as precipitation winds


Prev discussion (issued 851 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019)

dry air continues to prevent precipitation in far northeast iowa
from reaching the ground. This dry air will continue to be a
factor in southern wisconsin as well for the next several hours.

However, the dry air is expected to be overcome later tonight as
the air column will moisten, eventually allowing for snow to
reach the ground in southwestern wisconsin. The going headlines
look good at this time.


winds tonight will shift to the east and become brisk with gusts
over 20 kts in the nearshore. This will bring a small craft
advisory along the shoreline from kenosha to sheboygan into
Thursday morning. In addition, easterly winds will bring wave
heights from 6-8 ft by Wednesday afternoon to the nearshore areas
that are ice free. Overnight waves will decrease as winds shift
to the west.

For the open lake, the brisk winds from the east will increase
into Wednesday morning and afternoon with a few gale force gusts
possible during this time. Waves at this point will also be from
6-8 ft, primarily in the western half of the lake. Waves will
remain a concern as winds remain strong but shift to the west
bringing the 5-7 ft waves to the eastern side of the lake.

prev discussion... (issued 533 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019)
update... No changes to forecast at this time.

aviation(00z tafs)...VFR conditions into much of the evening with
lingering dry influence of high pressure. Lower ceilings arrive
after midnight into the southwest and will gradually overspread
the area as snow works its way in with isentropic forcing
increasing. The dry influence holds on longest with the nam
solution. With loss of cloud ice taking hold expecting freezing
rain development towards mid morning. Ifr ceilings will become
widespread Wednesday morning with vsbys mostly ifr, though some
may slip into the lifr category. Expecting improvement in all
facets from late afternoon into the evening on Wednesday as
precipitation winds down.

prev discussion... (issued 336 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019)
short term...

tonight into Wednesday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

Winter weather advisory continues unchanged for later tonight
into Wednesday across southern wisconsin. Main changes are more
ice accumulations mainly Wednesday afternoon, and slightly higher
snowfall amounts in areas west of madison.

Followed the gfs ECMWF with the track of the low moving northeast
through the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Still looks to
be a period of robust upward vertical motion later tonight into
Wednesday morning, with focused warm air advection frontogenesis
response and a low level jet nose moving through the area. This
should be the period of worst conditions, with snowfall rates of
1 4 to 1 2 inch per hour possible in any heavier snow bands. This
will affect the morning commute quite a bit.

The tricky part of the forecast will be later Wednesday morning
into the afternoon, when the models are taking out most of the
cloud ice across most of the area. This will allow for a period of
freezing rain mixing in across most of the area, or changing to
all freezing rain.

The key for Wednesday afternoon precipitation types will be
surface temperatures, which will approach or rise a little above
freezing Wednesday afternoon. The far southeast should see above
freezing temperatures by middle afternoon, so just rain would be
expected by this time in this area.

The other areas may see ice accumulations of up to 0.10 inches,
with up to 0.15 inches north of milwaukee. Mainly snow should
still fall toward and north west of the dells.

Thus, increased ice accumulations across most of the area for
Wednesday late morning and afternoon. QPF amounts are trending a
little higher as well, so the far west and northwest should see a
little more snow. Have a general 3 to 5 inches in south central
wisconsin, with lower amounts to the east.

Things should taper off from south to north later Wednesday
afternoon into early evening, as drier air works in.

Long term...

Thursday through Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

Surface high pressure will dominate our weather regime. Will need
to monitor clearing as Thursday night, which would lead to ideal
radiational cooling conditions. Otherwise, expect high temperatures
to hang around average with at or below average lows (potentially
much below Thursday night).

Upcoming weekend... Forecast confidence is medium.

The barrage of storm systems every 3(ish) days continues. The 12z
suite of model output continues to indicate a robust system with
ample moisture affecting the area this weekend. Still some small
differences in timing, but blurring ones eyes we would see
chances of a first round of precipitation increase late Friday
night into Saturday morning, with the main wave of precipitation
moving through Saturday night through at least Sunday.

Run to run and model to model consistency with the evolution and
strengthening of this system has been rather stable. A negatively
tilted trough ejects out of the southern plains and quickly moves
to the northeast. The surface low deepens quickly as it moves
northeast and occludes as it moves over southeastern wisconsin.

The biggest question at this point is track. All solutions have
the surface and 850mb low crossing some portion of southern
wisconsin, which at least lend credibility to a variety of
types. The ECMWF is a little further northwest with the low
tracks versus the other guidance and thereby the warmest. Given
the current location strength timing evolution of the upper wave,
a slightly more northwest solution is plausible. As a result, kept
a mix at onset, with mainly rain for Saturday. As the upper low
pulls through Saturday night into Sunday, a shift back to snow is
expected. Too early to get into any amounts, but there is a good
fetch of moisture associated with this system.

Monday onward... Forecast confidence is medium.

Model output has the next (weaker) system lined up for the
Tuesday time frame (give or take), so there is at least one more
wave in this train left to go. However, moving forward there are
signs of an upper level pattern shift from deep southwesterly
flow to more zonal. This will likely be at the expense of being
much colder than average, but this shift should eventually result
in a somewhat drier pattern.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

high clouds will gradually lower into this evening, with light
winds lingering.

Snow will push northeast into the area later tonight, mainly
between 3 am and 6 am cst Wednesday. Look for 1 mile visibilities
and ceilings down to 500 feet with light to moderate snow
Wednesday morning, lingering in the far northwest parts of the
area in the afternoon. 1 4 to 1 2 inch per hour rates are possible
in the morning.

Freezing rain looks to mix in, or just change to all freezing
rain, across most of the area by later Wednesday morning, with a
change to all rain in the far southeast by middle afternoon. Look
for icing up to 0.10 inches, with values up to 0.15 inches north
of milwaukee, on top of the snow. These amounts may continue to
vary, depending on if surface temperatures rise above freezing. 1
mile visibilities and ceilings around 500 feet should linger here
as well in the afternoon. Keep up with the forecast.

Things should wind down Wednesday evening, with some light
freezing drizzle or light snow possibly lingering for a few hours.


nearshore waters...

small craft advisory remains in effect from 3 am cst Wednesday
until 9 am cst Thursday. Gusty east to southeast winds are
expected to develop later tonight into Wednesday morning. Gusts up
to 30 knots are expected. A few gale force gusts are possible.

Winds will then shift south to southwest Wednesday afternoon and
weaken for a bit, then shift southwest to west Wednesday night
into Thursday morning and becoming gusty once again. A few gale
force gusts are possible.

Waves will build to 3 to 5 feet in ice free areas Wednesday,
higher toward and over the open waters. Waves should subside by
later Wednesday night.

Open waters...

gusty east to southeast winds are expected to develop later
tonight into Wednesday across lake michigan, spreading south to
north. Gusts to 30 knots are expected, with a few gusts
approaching gale force possible over the south half.

The winds will gradually shift to the southwest and west
Wednesday night into Thursday, with gusts to 30 knots. A few gale
force gusts are possible later Wednesday night, mainly over the
south half of the lake.

High waves are expected over the western half of the lake
Wednesday into Wednesday evening, shifting to the east half later
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 6 pm cst Wednesday for

Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 3 pm cst Wednesday for

Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 6 pm cst Wednesday for

Lm... Small craft advisory from 3 am Wednesday to 9 am cst Thursday
for lmz643>646.

Tonight Wednesday and aviation marine... Wood
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Gagan

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 82 mi33 min ESE 8.9 G 11 31°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 85 mi33 min SE 9.9 G 12 32°F 1027.4 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 93 mi73 min SE 12 G 15 31°F 1026.8 hPa (-3.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Madison, Dane County Regional-Truax Field, WI6 mi80 minE 510.00 miOvercast23°F15°F72%1027.1 hPa
Middleton Muni - Morey Field, WI6 mi78 minESE 610.00 miOvercast24°F18°F78%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from MSN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3S5S6S7S6S5S7S6SE3CalmCalmSE5E4E5E7
1 day agoN14N11N9N10N5N7N8N6N8N8N5N5E5CalmCalmN3CalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalm--
2 days ago--NE8NE8NE7E9E9E10NE12NE16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.