Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 6:46AM||Sunset 5:36PM||Wednesday February 20, 2019 1:13 AM CST (07:13 UTC)||Moonrise 8:05PM||Moonset 8:42AM||Illumination 99%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison, WIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kmkx 200509|
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1109 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019
Update Increasing pops a bit in the southwest with things
having saturated and light snow occuring at kdbq. Better returns
evolving on radar with a drift towards southwest wi. Overall,
forecast headlines look on track. May need to eventually add some
more fzra in the west as some solutions showing a little quicker
loss to cloud ice there but getting mixed signals on this from
model soundings lending less confidence to a forecast change at
Aviation(06z tafs) Vfr conditions holding sway even at light
evening with dry influence in place. However things are saturating
quicker across east central ia with these better radar returns
shifting north and eventually northeast. So potential for light
snow to get going after 06z in the southwest. The last areas to
see the light snow will be our far eastern and northeastern locales
which will be after about 09z or so. A lowering of ceilings will
occur overnight as the column saturates further with increasing
isentropic ascent. The dry influence holds on longest with the
nam solution. With loss of cloud ice taking hold expecting freezing
rain development towards mid morning. Ifr ceilings will become widespread
Wednesday morning with vsbys mostly ifr, though some may slip into
the lifr category. Expecting improvement in all facets from late
afternoon into the evening on Wednesday as precipitation winds
Prev discussion (issued 851 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019)
dry air continues to prevent precipitation in far northeast iowa
from reaching the ground. This dry air will continue to be a
factor in southern wisconsin as well for the next several hours.
However, the dry air is expected to be overcome later tonight as
the air column will moisten, eventually allowing for snow to
reach the ground in southwestern wisconsin. The going headlines
look good at this time.
winds tonight will shift to the east and become brisk with gusts
over 20 kts in the nearshore. This will bring a small craft
advisory along the shoreline from kenosha to sheboygan into
Thursday morning. In addition, easterly winds will bring wave
heights from 6-8 ft by Wednesday afternoon to the nearshore areas
that are ice free. Overnight waves will decrease as winds shift
to the west.
For the open lake, the brisk winds from the east will increase
into Wednesday morning and afternoon with a few gale force gusts
possible during this time. Waves at this point will also be from
6-8 ft, primarily in the western half of the lake. Waves will
remain a concern as winds remain strong but shift to the west
bringing the 5-7 ft waves to the eastern side of the lake.
prev discussion... (issued 533 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019)
update... No changes to forecast at this time.
aviation(00z tafs)...VFR conditions into much of the evening with
lingering dry influence of high pressure. Lower ceilings arrive
after midnight into the southwest and will gradually overspread
the area as snow works its way in with isentropic forcing
increasing. The dry influence holds on longest with the nam
solution. With loss of cloud ice taking hold expecting freezing
rain development towards mid morning. Ifr ceilings will become
widespread Wednesday morning with vsbys mostly ifr, though some
may slip into the lifr category. Expecting improvement in all
facets from late afternoon into the evening on Wednesday as
precipitation winds down.
prev discussion... (issued 336 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019)
tonight into Wednesday night... Forecast confidence is medium.
Winter weather advisory continues unchanged for later tonight
into Wednesday across southern wisconsin. Main changes are more
ice accumulations mainly Wednesday afternoon, and slightly higher
snowfall amounts in areas west of madison.
Followed the gfs ECMWF with the track of the low moving northeast
through the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Still looks to
be a period of robust upward vertical motion later tonight into
Wednesday morning, with focused warm air advection frontogenesis
response and a low level jet nose moving through the area. This
should be the period of worst conditions, with snowfall rates of
1 4 to 1 2 inch per hour possible in any heavier snow bands. This
will affect the morning commute quite a bit.
The tricky part of the forecast will be later Wednesday morning
into the afternoon, when the models are taking out most of the
cloud ice across most of the area. This will allow for a period of
freezing rain mixing in across most of the area, or changing to
all freezing rain.
The key for Wednesday afternoon precipitation types will be
surface temperatures, which will approach or rise a little above
freezing Wednesday afternoon. The far southeast should see above
freezing temperatures by middle afternoon, so just rain would be
expected by this time in this area.
The other areas may see ice accumulations of up to 0.10 inches,
with up to 0.15 inches north of milwaukee. Mainly snow should
still fall toward and north west of the dells.
Thus, increased ice accumulations across most of the area for
Wednesday late morning and afternoon. QPF amounts are trending a
little higher as well, so the far west and northwest should see a
little more snow. Have a general 3 to 5 inches in south central
wisconsin, with lower amounts to the east.
Things should taper off from south to north later Wednesday|
afternoon into early evening, as drier air works in.
Thursday through Friday... Forecast confidence is high.
Surface high pressure will dominate our weather regime. Will need
to monitor clearing as Thursday night, which would lead to ideal
radiational cooling conditions. Otherwise, expect high temperatures
to hang around average with at or below average lows (potentially
much below Thursday night).
Upcoming weekend... Forecast confidence is medium.
The barrage of storm systems every 3(ish) days continues. The 12z
suite of model output continues to indicate a robust system with
ample moisture affecting the area this weekend. Still some small
differences in timing, but blurring ones eyes we would see
chances of a first round of precipitation increase late Friday
night into Saturday morning, with the main wave of precipitation
moving through Saturday night through at least Sunday.
Run to run and model to model consistency with the evolution and
strengthening of this system has been rather stable. A negatively
tilted trough ejects out of the southern plains and quickly moves
to the northeast. The surface low deepens quickly as it moves
northeast and occludes as it moves over southeastern wisconsin.
The biggest question at this point is track. All solutions have
the surface and 850mb low crossing some portion of southern
wisconsin, which at least lend credibility to a variety of
types. The ECMWF is a little further northwest with the low
tracks versus the other guidance and thereby the warmest. Given
the current location strength timing evolution of the upper wave,
a slightly more northwest solution is plausible. As a result, kept
a mix at onset, with mainly rain for Saturday. As the upper low
pulls through Saturday night into Sunday, a shift back to snow is
expected. Too early to get into any amounts, but there is a good
fetch of moisture associated with this system.
Monday onward... Forecast confidence is medium.
Model output has the next (weaker) system lined up for the
Tuesday time frame (give or take), so there is at least one more
wave in this train left to go. However, moving forward there are
signs of an upper level pattern shift from deep southwesterly
flow to more zonal. This will likely be at the expense of being
much colder than average, but this shift should eventually result
in a somewhat drier pattern.
high clouds will gradually lower into this evening, with light
Snow will push northeast into the area later tonight, mainly
between 3 am and 6 am cst Wednesday. Look for 1 mile visibilities
and ceilings down to 500 feet with light to moderate snow
Wednesday morning, lingering in the far northwest parts of the
area in the afternoon. 1 4 to 1 2 inch per hour rates are possible
in the morning.
Freezing rain looks to mix in, or just change to all freezing
rain, across most of the area by later Wednesday morning, with a
change to all rain in the far southeast by middle afternoon. Look
for icing up to 0.10 inches, with values up to 0.15 inches north
of milwaukee, on top of the snow. These amounts may continue to
vary, depending on if surface temperatures rise above freezing. 1
mile visibilities and ceilings around 500 feet should linger here
as well in the afternoon. Keep up with the forecast.
Things should wind down Wednesday evening, with some light
freezing drizzle or light snow possibly lingering for a few hours.
small craft advisory remains in effect from 3 am cst Wednesday
until 9 am cst Thursday. Gusty east to southeast winds are
expected to develop later tonight into Wednesday morning. Gusts up
to 30 knots are expected. A few gale force gusts are possible.
Winds will then shift south to southwest Wednesday afternoon and
weaken for a bit, then shift southwest to west Wednesday night
into Thursday morning and becoming gusty once again. A few gale
force gusts are possible.
Waves will build to 3 to 5 feet in ice free areas Wednesday,
higher toward and over the open waters. Waves should subside by
later Wednesday night.
gusty east to southeast winds are expected to develop later
tonight into Wednesday across lake michigan, spreading south to
north. Gusts to 30 knots are expected, with a few gusts
approaching gale force possible over the south half.
The winds will gradually shift to the southwest and west
Wednesday night into Thursday, with gusts to 30 knots. A few gale
force gusts are possible later Wednesday night, mainly over the
south half of the lake.
High waves are expected over the western half of the lake
Wednesday into Wednesday evening, shifting to the east half later
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 6 pm cst Wednesday for
Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 3 pm cst Wednesday for
Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 6 pm cst Wednesday for
Lm... Small craft advisory from 3 am Wednesday to 9 am cst Thursday
Tonight Wednesday and aviation marine... Wood
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Gagan
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI||82 mi||33 min||ESE 8.9 G 11||31°F|
|PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI||85 mi||33 min||SE 9.9 G 12||32°F||1027.4 hPa|
|KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI||93 mi||73 min||SE 12 G 15||31°F||1026.8 hPa (-3.0)|
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Madison, Dane County Regional-Truax Field, WI||6 mi||80 min||E 5||10.00 mi||Overcast||23°F||15°F||72%||1027.1 hPa|
|Middleton Muni - Morey Field, WI||6 mi||78 min||ESE 6||10.00 mi||Overcast||24°F||18°F||78%||1025.4 hPa|
Wind History from MSN (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||E||Calm||Calm||N||Calm||Calm||S||S||Calm||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago||NE||NE||NE||E||E||E||NE||NE|
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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