Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madison, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:22PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 3:51 PM CDT (20:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:34AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 306 Pm Cdt Wed May 22 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Through early evening..Southeast wind 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Areas of dense fog. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight veering west early in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy fog in the late evening and overnight. Scattered showers through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Numerous showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight veering north early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east late in the morning, then veering southeast early in the afternoon rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ644 Expires:201905230900;;290715 FZUS53 KMKX 222006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison, WI
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location: 43.09, -89.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 221950
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
250 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019

Discussion
Tonight and Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium to high.

Gusty south winds will diminish rapidly early this evening. Fog
will continue to tickle the lakeshore as warm, moist air continues
to flow across the shore areas. The fog should thin and get pushed
out over the lake later tonight when winds turn to the southwest.

Moderate instability along with strong low level and bulk shear
ahead of an approaching weak low pressure trof convergence wl get
some lift enhancement from the right entrance region of an upper
jet. Mid-layer q-vector convergence does increase to 10-20 units
this evening indicating the enhanced synoptic lift. These
features are expected to trigger scattered convection across the
central and east from late this afternoon through the evening. Can
not rule out a few strong to severe storms due to the strong
shear and CAPE up to 1000 j kg. Enhanced lift moves off to the
east later tonight ending the convection threat. Warm front should
be mostly north of the area, but may arc down into the sheboygan
county area into the evening. In addition, NAM is showing a period
of low level frontogenetical forcing as weak convergence moves
through this evening.

Sharp short-wave ridging at the mid-levels and an influx of drier
air will result in a pleasant but breezy day on Thursday. Lot of
sunshine and seasonal temps.

Thursday night through Saturday night - confidence... Medium
an unsettled period is expected. Later Thursday night we should
start to see the influence of low level warm air advection take
hold. This will be ahead of low pressure in the northern plains.

The lingering influence of high pressure may end up keeping parts
of the east dry. Mid level flow will also turn more west southwest
as ridge axis shifts east. This will help lead to greater rain
chances during the day Friday and into Friday evening. This will
also be when low level warm moist advection will be heightened. A
trailing cool front may not move as fast as the ECMWF is implying
given the steering flow. The front could hang around with waves
of energy riding along the boundary keeping shra tsra chances
going well into Saturday evening.

Sunday and Sunday night - confidence... Medium
some consensus that a break in the rain would occur this period.

Low level anticyclonic flow takes hold and the boundary may end up
shifting far enough south to allow the focus to take rain with
it. The 12z GFS suggests the break will not be for long though as
a return low level warm air advection resumes Sunday night
bringing precip back to the area. Meanwhile the 00z ECMWF keeps
things dry Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday - confidence... Low to medium
looks like a continued unsettled period with potential for a few
rounds of showers storms as meandering frontal boundary meanders
the upper midwest. The mid upper level flow will be largely
southwest which favors pockets of energy riding northeast within
this flow. Main trough could eject northeast towards the end of
the period. Will use blended temps pops.

Aviation(21z tafs) As low level winds continue to veer to the
south, expect the remaining areas of low clouds and fog closer to
lake michigan to thin and dissipate. Other patchy MVFR ceilings
should lift toVFR this afternoon. Still expect scattered showers
and storms to develop late afternoon and evening and affect eastern
areas with lower visibilities.VFR conditions return later tonight
and Thursday.

Marine Dense fog will continue to be a threat over the nearshore
and open waters tonight until winds turn to the west to southwest
and drier air spreads across lake michigan later tonight into Thursday
morning. A dense fog advisory remains in effect north of north point
light, but the fog is beginning to thin from north point light to
port washington. May be able to cancel this part of the advisory
late this afternoon, but more fog may develop this evening. Gusty
southeast to south winds will diminish during the early evening
with subsiding wave heights. Hence wl continue small craft advisory
for the nearshore waters until 7 pm. Gusty west winds are expected
on Thursday and will have gusts of 20 to 22 knots at times, getting
close to small craft advisory levels.

Beaches Gusty south to southeast winds will continue through
the late afternoon, with gusts at the shore up to 25 to 30 mph.

These gusty winds will keep waves elevated, so high swim risk threat
will continue and beach hazards will remain in effect until 7 pm.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement until 7 pm cdt this evening for wiz052-
060-066-071-072.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz643>646.

Dense fog advisory until 10 pm cdt this evening for lmz643-644.

Tonight Thursday aviation marine beaches... mbk
Thursday night through Wednesday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 82 mi31 min SE 13 G 16 52°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 93 mi51 min S 12 G 19 55°F 1009.5 hPa (-1.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Madison, Dane County Regional-Truax Field, WI6 mi58 minSSW 17 G 3210.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F55°F50%1006.5 hPa
Middleton Muni - Morey Field, WI6 mi56 minSSW 20 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy78°F58°F51%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from MSN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE15
G24
SE17
G22
E14
G29
E19
G27
E18
G30
E18
G27
E18
G32
SE16
G29
SE9SE13
G19
E24
G37
SE6SE8SE9SE12SE11SE11
G20
SE16
G24
S18
G23
S15S20
G28
S16
G23
S15
G28
S17
G32
1 day agoNE734E5E6E4CalmSE4S4SE7SE7E4E7E4E5E8E7E15
G23
E15
G23
E12
G21
E14E11
G20
E16
G23
E18
G25
2 days agoW8
G20
W8
G20
NW11
G22
NW9
G19
W12
G21
W9
G15
W8
G18
NW8
G20
NW6NW7NW10
G19
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G19
NW10
G20
NW6NW8
G15
NW9
G17
N12
G19
NW13
G20
N12
G19
N11NW7N9N6NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.