Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 10:14 AM   Moonset 1:21 AM

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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 705 Am Cdt Mon May 13 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Tuesday night - .
Today - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the morning, then becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon veering northeast late in the afternoon. Chance of showers early in the afternoon. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rain showers likely late in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots backing north late in the evening, then becoming northeast 15 to 25 knots after midnight becoming north 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 4 to 6 feet. Tuesday - North wind 10 to 20 knots rising to 15 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the afternoon. Tuesday night - North wind 15 to 25 knots easing to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early in the morning.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 130902 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 402 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of a line from Madison to Port Washington. A few early-afternoon thunderstorms may produce briefly gusty winds.

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires may continue to impact air quality through this morning in portions of southwestern Wisconsin.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms expected to impact southern Wisconsin late this week and into this weekend.

SHORT TERM
Issued 402 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Today through Tuesday:

A weak cold front is draped across northern Wisconsin, slowly progressing southward through today. With subsidence behind this cold front, areas of smoke and poor air quality remain possible across portions of central Wisconsin through this morning.
Meanwhile, low pressure developing in eastern Kansas this morning will approach the Middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon and lead to convergence-based showers and thunderstorms in far southern Wisconsin. Light southeasterly winds are expected through much of the day, with a lake breeze enhanced by the weak northern cold front pushing inland this afternoon and providing an additional trigger for shower and thunderstorm development.

Early in the afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development, surface based CAPE values close to 800 J/kg, boundary layer lapse rates close to dry adiabatic, and inverted-v sounding signatures lead to concerns for briefly gusty winds under heavier storms. However, this threat looks to remain very isolated, with dewpoints expected to rise back into the upper 50s and bulk shear remaining near or below 25 kt providing less support than yesterday. Going into the evening hours, expect winds to rapidly turn northeasterly and bring in stable air from Lake Michigan. Some elevated instability may remain, allowing for continued embedded thunderstorms, but the main weather mode looks to be showers.

Showers slowly sink southeastward overnight, exiting into Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure to the south allows for increased PGF winds from the north-northeast. Expect wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph Tuesday into Tuesday evening before diminishing as low pressure shifts into Ohio and weakens.

MH

LONG TERM
Issued 402 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Nely winds will continue Tue nt but gradually become lighter as a sfc ridge builds south from Ontario into wrn WI. The sfc ridge will then slowly moves across srn WI on Wed. Mostly clear skies will continue for this period with high temps in the lower 70s well inland from Lake MI.

A weak sfc trough and upper level trough will then move across MN Wed nt and into WI on Thu. PWs will increase to 1 inch with marginal instability ahead of this feature. The fcst soundings do become fairly saturated in the low to mid levels with little to no capping so the 50-60 percent PoPs of the NBM looks reasonable.
The showers will continue into the evening over se WI. Another weaker shortwave trough will then approach and pass through srn WI for Fri-Fri eve so will have to maintain 20-30 percent PoPs. High temps will remain in the 70s away from the lake both days.

Upper ridging will then take hold for the weekend with some differences in timing of the sfc warm frontal passage. A warm weekend is expected with another Sunday possibly in the 80s. Rain chances of 20-30 percent chances are forecast via warm, moist advection.

Gehring

AVIATION
Issued 402 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through this morning, with showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon along a weak cold frontal boundary as well as the lake breeze boundary. Showers and storms are expected to lower ceilings into MVFR conditions, although VFR conditions are expected to remain outside showers and thunderstorms. This evening into tonight, ceilings from MKE southward through JVL and ENW will continue to fall, with 1000 to 1500 ft ceilings likely and IFR conditions possible, especially at stations closest to Lake Michigan.

Light southwesterly winds throughout much of the day will shift to northeasterly from central Wisconsin southwestward late this afternoon into tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 kt develop late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

MH

MARINE
Issued 402 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A weak cold front draped across the northern third of Lake Michigan will slowly push southward through today. Expect southwest winds ahead of this front, with light north winds behind it. A few thunderstorms are possible across the southern half this afternoon and evening ahead of this front. Northeast winds will increase tonight into Tuesday as low pressure develops in the Middle Mississippi Valley. Winds shift northerly as low pressure tracks into Ohio Tuesday afternoon and evening, with winds diminishing into Tuesday night as the low weakens. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect late tonight through late Tuesday night for elevated winds and waves in the nearshore regions. Winds remain light and northerly through Wednesday as high pressure over the Hudson Bay noses into the region. Winds are expected to remain light through Thursday.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday.

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