Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mayfield, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 4:52PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 12:00 AM EST (05:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:40AMMoonset 6:34PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayfield, NY
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location: 43.1, -74.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 170256
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
956 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A developing coastal low pressure system will form
southeast of the DELMARVA region overnight and track northeast to
near CAPE cod late Wednesday morning. This system is expected to
bring a moderate to heavy snowfall to much of the region overnight
into Wednesday. Seasonably cold and mainly dry weather is expected
Thursday with some lake effect snowfall northwest of the capital
district.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 945 pm est... The latest rap guidance with the goes-16
clean IR 10.35 micron band satellite imagery overlaid
continues to show cloud tops cooling over much of the forecast
area with the a positively tilted mid and upper level trough
centered over the central-eastern great lakes region. A decaying
primary sfc low has drifted over the central ny-pa border. A
secondary sfc coastal low is continuing to form southeast of the
delmarva corridor. Over running moisture ahead of the coastal
low continues to spill into the region with a baroclinic zone
set-up over eastern ny and western new england. The snowshield
continues to fill in, and the latest kenx and regional radar is
showing an enhancement in the radar echoes with a bandlet band
setting up north and west of the best low- mid level fgen over
the southeast catskills, mid-hudson valley, berkshires and
central and southern taconics. Snow rates may start to reach the
0.50-1.0 inch hr rate shortly before midnight there. Some
slight adjustments were done with the pops and snow amounts. The
current headlines look good with warning for 5-10" of snow from
the mid-hudson valley of dutchess co., the taconics into
eastern rensselaer county eastward into western new england.

West of the warning area, advisories remain up for 4-8" in the
capital region, eastern catskills, schoharie valley, and the
lake george region northern saratoga region, and 2-6" further
west.

With the approaching mid and upper level trough and a strong mid
and upper left front quadrant of a jet-streak nearby, recent
northeast cstar research would suggest the potential for a
quasi- stationary mesoscale band of snowfall on the northwestern
side of this developing low pressure area especially after
midnight to continue. The latest mesoscale models, including the
3-km hrrr and NAM do suggest the heaviest snowfall amounts
extending from the poconos northeast across the catskills, mid
hudson valley and into NW ct berkshires overnight.

Previous near term...

the morning commute will likely be fairly difficult across much
of the area on Wednesday morning due to the snow covered
roadways and low visibility. As the low pressure lifts up
towards eastern new england, snowfall will start to taper off
from west to east during the day on Wednesday. We will have to
monitor for a brief period of mohawk-hudson convergence mhc
in the late morning based on some of the mesoscale model trends
including the latest nam12. Based on the track of the cyclone,
and the local flow patterns in the adjoining valley, it is
possible referring to the mhc cstar conceptual model. Snowfall
should be done in the capital region and mid- hudson valley by
the mid to late morning and should be ending in western new
england by the late morning or early afternoon hours. Winds will
switch to the northwest behind the storm, but shouldn't be too
strong since the surface low is fairly weak, so blowing drifting
doesn't look like a concern with this event. Temps on Wednesday
will generally be in the 20s, with a few spots in the mid-
hudson valley and NW ct reaching the low 30s. Clouds should be
breaking for some Sun on Wednesday afternoon from west to east
as well.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
A ridge of high pressure will build in Wednesday night
providing mainly dry conditions. However, due to well aligned
westerly flow and borderline conditional lake induced
instability, there will be some lake effect snow showers across
the western adirondacks. Any accumulations should be light, with
shallow inversion heights of only around 850 mb are expected.

Temperatures will be near normal, with lows in the single digits
and teens.

Similar conditions should prevail on Thursday, with a flat
ridge in place and a westerly flow continuing. Again, some light
lake effect snow showers may affect the western adirondacks,
but dry conditions should prevail elsewhere. Snow showers may be
a bit more enhanced with greater coverage Thursday night across
the western southern adirondacks, as a fast-moving short wave
trough is expected to move through. Still, only minor
accumulations are forecast with mainly dry conditions elsewhere.

Temperatures will remain near normal during this time. Highs on
Thursday will be in the upper teens to lower 30s with lows
Thursday night in the mid teens to lower 20s.

On Friday, any lingering lake effect should end during the
morning with dry conditions expected Friday afternoon. Highs on
Friday will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
This period will mark a turn toward much above normal
temperatures... With highs mainly in the 30s and 40s each day, and
lows stating out mostly around 20 degrees Friday night, with mostly
upper 20s and lower 30s by Sunday and Monday nights. With mid-
january being albany's coldest time of the year, on average, lows
there are normally in the mid teens, with highs around 30 degrees.

High pressure centered over the deep south will build up into the
mid-atlantic region. An east-west frontal boundary will stay just
north of our zones as low pressure over the center of the contiguous
u.S. Develops and tracks across the great lakes and into southern
quebec through Monday night, displacing the high pressure and
bringing a good chance of rain showers throughout the area as early
as Sunday night, which could start as snow. By midday Monday, all
areas outside of the high peaks of the adirondacks will likely
experience pure rain shower activity ahead of a cold front which
will move quickly east across our zones Monday night. It will be
overcast with low instability. Only a modest decline in
temperatures will be experienced behind the front... To as low as
near normal.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
A double barrel low pressure system will impact eastern ny and
western new england tonight into tomorrow with snow. The primary
low over upstate ny will weaken tonight, as the secondary
coastal low moves along the atlantic coast towards eastern long
island by daybreak tomorrow. The coastal low will quickly move
northeast of CAPE cod by the afternoon with the snow tapering to
snow showers and flurries.

In the developing snow shield conditions will continue to lower
from MVFR ifr levels in terms of CIGS vsbys. Expect the
cigs vsbys to lower to widespread ifr and some lifr levels with
vsbys down to 1 2sm to 3 4sm with moderate snow between 04z-
08z. The best chance for sustained moderate snow with vsbys a
1 2sm will be from kalb kgfl kpsf kpou from 07z-13z wed. The
snow will begin to taper and lighten prior to 16z Wed with
lingering MVFR CIGS vsbys thereafter. As the system moves
northeast expect widespreadVFR conditions after 18z Wed with
cigs bkn-ovc 3.5-4.0 kft agl.

The winds will be calm tonight or light and variable at 4 kts or
less. The winds will increase from the N to NW at around 5 kts
after 12z wed, and will continue to strengthen from the
northwest at around 10 kts by the afternoon with some gusts
16-20 kts at kpou kalb kpsf.

Outlook...

Wednesday night to Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night to Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance
of shra... Shsn.

Hydrology
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings. There could still be some lingering
issues as any existing ice jams may tend to become frozen in
place due to the continued cold temperatures expected over the
next few days. Warmer weather is not expected until the weekend.

In terms of precipitation, a moderate snowfall is expected for
much of the area from today into Wednesday, with heavy snowfall
from the mid hudson valley and taconics eastward across western
new england.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning until 3 pm est Wednesday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est Wednesday for nyz032-
033-038>043-047>053-058>060-063-082>084.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm est Wednesday for nyz054-061-
064>066.

Ma... Winter storm warning until 3 pm est Wednesday for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter storm warning until 3 pm est Wednesday for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Jpv wasula
near term... Frugis wasula
short term... 11 jpv
long term... Elh
aviation... Wasula
hydrology... 11 jpv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 78 mi91 min 29°F 1029 hPa28°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY27 mi2.2 hrsNNE 31.00 miLight Snow27°F24°F93%1029.1 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3CalmNE4NE3
1 day ago------------------NE4NE5NE7NE4--NE4N3------E3NE3NE4Calm--
2 days ago------------------W10NW10W6NW8NW7W5W4------N4----N4--

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Wed -- 05:15 AM EST     4.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:46 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:34 PM EST     5.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.20.7233.84.243.22.41.81.20.50.212.53.94.85.45.54.83.62.61.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:07 AM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:37 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:25 PM EST     5.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:33 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.30.7233.743.82.92.11.50.90.20.11.12.63.94.85.35.34.43.32.31.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.