Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mayfield, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:42PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 1:26 AM EDT (05:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:33AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayfield, NY
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location: 43.1, -74.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 280442
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1242 am edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
In the wake of a strong upper level disturbance and cold front, a
cool air mass will be over the region tonight, as high pressure
builds in from the mid atlantic region. Generally fair weather is
expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night, although an isolated
shower is possible across portions of the southern adirondacks and
southern vermont. A warm front will approach from the ohio valley
and great lakes region for Thursday into Thursday night, bringing
more showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions, along
with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, are expected for
Friday into Saturday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1242 am edt... Cyclonic flow continues across the forecast
area early this morning with the mid and upper level trough
axis moving into west-cntrl ny, pa, and the mid atlantic region.

A few showers are continuing over herkimer and hamilton
counties with the upper low, and slight chc pops were kept in a
few hours there.

The bigger issue is the development of mist or fog across
portions the upper hudson valley, lake george region into
southern vt and the berkshires due to clearing skies, light to
calm winds and recent wet ground due to the showers and
thunderstorms yesterday. Patchy to areas of fog (locally dense
in a few spots) have been expanded a bit across portions of
western new england, and the mohawk and hudson river valley this
morning. Temps have cooled off close to previously forecasted
mins in some locations already in the very cool late june air
mass. The new york mesonet indicates it is 46f already at
indian lake in the adirondacks, johnstown in the mohawk valley
has hit 47f, and the kgfl ASOS has hit 47f. Some mid and upper
40s have already been reached in the eastern catskills,
berkshires and southern vt. We lowered mins a bit with some
lower 40s over the southern dacks, eastern catskills, and
southern vt, and mid 40s to lower 50s across the rest of the
fcst area with the skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy
towards daybreak.

Short term 6 am this morning through Friday night
Wednesday-Wednesday night, generally fair through the period.

However, lingering instability and weak disturbances passing
southeast across northern new england could allow isolated
showers to develop in the afternoon across portions of the
southern adirondacks and southern vt. It will be a bit warmer
Wednesday with highs mainly in the 70s, and lows Wed night in
the 50s.

Thursday-Friday night, the leading edge of much warmer more
humid air will approach Thursday afternoon, as a strong low
level jet impinges on the region. Strong forcing may produce an
upstream MCS across the northern great lakes early Thursday
morning which may then track east southeast into at least
northern areas for later Thursday morning into the afternoon.

Most likely, this MCS should be weakening as it tracks into the
southern adirondacks and mohawk valley region, feeding mainly
from elevated instability from central western nys. Have
indicated highest pops for areas north of i-90, with only
chances to the south. There remains considerable uncertainty
regarding the exact placement of the incoming surface warm front
for later Thursday into Thursday night. If there is some form
of an MCS across northern areas, then the warm front may be much
slower to lift northward into our region. If there is much less
activity, then the warm front may have a better chance to lift
north and east through the region. Have trended a closer to the
cooler side of guidance, with the expectation of at least some
form of showers storms impacting northern and central areas
Thursday afternoon. Either way, it appears that multiple rounds
of showers thunderstorms will impact the region Thursday night
into Friday as some form of a low level thermal gradient remains
nearby. There could be some potential for strong severe
thunderstorms with 0-6 km bulk shear remaining 30-40 kt, and
possible sb capes exceeding 1500 j kg across at least portions
of the region Friday.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
The long term period is expected to start out unsettled as a series
of frontal boundaries are expected to impact the forecast area. The
unsettled weather is expected to continue into early next week as a
frontal boundary stalls to our south and east.

Showers along with scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday and
Sunday as a low pressure system and a cold front move across the
region. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 70s to upper 80s with
lows Saturday night in the 60s to around 70 and highs on Sunday in
the upper 60s to upper 80s.

Sunday night through Tuesday... The frontal boundary will stall south
and east of the region as an area of low pressure moves
northeastward along the frontal boundary. This will keep unsettled
weather across the region into the middle of next week. Expect lows
Sunday night to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs on Monday in
the upper 60s to mid 80s, lows Monday night in the mid 50s to mid
60s, and highs on Tuesday in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

Overall expect temperatures to average close to normal with
precipitation above normal.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Isolated showers will remain possible this evening, although
chances of impacting a TAF site appears quite low, so no
mention at this time.

Otherwise, patchy areas of fog will likely develop later
tonight, with best chances at kgfl and kpsf, where a period of
ifr is expected between roughly 97z-11z wed.

Once any fog low clouds burn off, expectVFR conditions
throughout Wednesday.

Winds will become light variable overnight, then trend into the
west to northwest at 8-12 kt by late Wednesday morning into the
afternoon, with some gusts possibly reaching around 20 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of shra... Tsra.

Thursday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Friday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday: high operational impact. Definite shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: high operational impact. Likely shra.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
In the wake of a strong upper level disturbance and cold front, a
cool air mass will be over the region tonight, as high pressure
builds in from the mid atlantic region. Generally fair weather is
expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night, although an isolated
shower is possible across portions of the southern adirondacks and
southern vermont. A warm front will approach from the ohio valley
and great lakes region for Thursday into Thursday night, bringing
more showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions, along
with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, are expected for
Friday into Saturday.

The rh values will recover close to 100 percent tonight. Expect
minimum rh values of 35 to 55 percent on Wednesday.

The winds will from the southwest to northwest at 5 to 15 mph
today. The winds will be from the southwest to west at 10 mph or
less tonight, and then increase from the west to northwest at
10 to 15 mph with some gusts to 20-25 mph on Wednesday.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and
near any thunderstorms.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrological problems are anticipated over the
next several days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected through the early evening hours, as a cold front
and upper low impact the region. Basin average rainfall amounts
will generally be a tenth to a third of an inch in some
locations.

A brief period of mainly dry weather is expected most of
Wednesday into Wednesday night with ridging briefly building in from
the south. An active pattern sets up Thursday into the weekend
with showers and thunderstorms possible with increasing humidity
levels. Rainfall amounts will vary based on where any
convection occurs. The most widespread potential rainfall is
expected Thursday and Saturday. Rainfall amounts thu-thu night
may range from a quarter of an inch to an inch with some locally
higher amounts in thunderstorms. The higher totals right now may
be across the northern basins of the hsa.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Kl wasula
near term... Wasula
short term... Kl
long term... 11
aviation... Kl nas
fire weather... Kl wasula
hydrology... Kl wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 78 mi56 min 55°F 1016 hPa54°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------W7------------------------CalmCalmSW5SE5W9
1 day agoW8NW9
G15
W8W8NW6W6--------------------CalmW5W7NW6NW6NW4W5--
2 days agoW14
G22
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NW8NW8W5--------------------CalmCalmS7SW6SW8W4W12
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Wed -- 03:26 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:04 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:49 PM EDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.50.80.10.11.32.94.255.45.14.12.9210-0.5-01.32.73.74.44.74.2

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:16 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:00 AM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:54 PM EDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:41 PM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.30.5-0.20.11.434.255.34.93.82.61.70.7-0.3-0.7-01.42.73.74.44.53.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.