Sunday, September24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Mayfield, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:51PM Sunday September 24, 2017 8:24 AM EDT (12:24 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 9:34PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayfield, NY
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location: 43.1, -74.32     debug

Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 241059
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
659 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Temperatures
could reach record high levels today through Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 630 am edt, no major changes made to the forecast this
morning other than refreshing the hourly temps. Sent updates to
ndfd and web servers.

Prev disc...

despite some patchy fog this morning, temperatures are forecast
to hit record levels this afternoon. This is due to high
pressure both at the surface and aloft working its way over the
region. The latest GEFS 925mb temperatures are 1 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. Additionally, temperatures will start
out 10 degrees higher than yesterday morning (when highs reached
the mid 80s), making reaching the low 90s very possible this
afternoon for many locations.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday night
Hot and humid weather will continue through the period as the
core of the abnormally warm temperatures and ridging becomes
centered overhead. A weak backdoor wind shift boundary could
turn the surface winds to east and southeast Monday night and
Tuesday but winds still expected to be very light.

Low level moisture will increase gradually as well and the
combination of temperatures and dew points will make it feel
like summer. Dew points will rise solidly into the 60s and with
highs well into the 80s low 90s, heat indices could peak in the
mid 90s in some areas. The core of the heat looks like it will
get squeezed to the north and west of albany but this depends on
how the backdoor boundary moves and if the low level ridging
gets split by the boundary.

Sunny skies are expected today and Monday with record highs
possible both days. These records are highlighted in the climate
section below. Clouds and low level moisture will start
increasing on Tuesday ahead of hurricane maria approaching the
carolina coast and the upper ridge starting to weaken. Depending
on the cloud cover, some locations could eek out 90 degrees
again on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, shower chances return from
southeast to northwest.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
The extended forecast period opens with the mid and upper level
ridge over the northeast weakening, as the flow aloft becomes
flatter. Hurricane maria is likely to be located somewhere near or
east of the outer banks of nc midweek with some differences in the
location and timing of maria between the gfs ECMWF canadian ggem.

Please refer to the national hurricane center for official forecasts
on maria. A cold front will be approaching from the great lakes
region and the midwest mid-week. Wednesday looks like the last
above normal temperature day with h850 temps in the +16c to +17c
range. Sfc dewpoints will also continue in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of
the front. The instability does not look large, as sbcapes are in
the 250-750 j kg range for portions of the region. Some enhanced
shower activity may be with an outer low-level convergent band well
north of maria. Scattered showers will likely linger into the
evening. MAX temps will be about 15 degrees above normal still with
lower to mid 80s in the lower elevations, and 70s to around 80f over
the higher terrain. Lows will be in the 50s north and west of the
capital district, and lower to potentially mid 60s from the capital
district south and east into the mid-hudson valley, southern
taconics, and NW ct.

Thu-thu night... The sfc cold front will be east of the region in the
morning, but the better push of low to mid level cold advection will
be moving across the region during the late morning and into the
afternoon. Hurricane maria takes a hard right and gets picked up by
a broad and somewhat amplifying upper level trough. H850 temps fall
to +4c to +8c from the capital region north and west by the early
evening. There will be a decrease of showers during the day with
only some isolated instability or upslope isolated showers over the
western new england higher terrain, and the western adirondacks
during the afternoon. It will become breezy and cooler with highs
trending downward and closer to normal late sept readings with
mainly mid 60s to mid 70s with some cooler readings over the
mountains such as the southern dacks, and a few upper 70s are
possible in the mid-hudson valley. Lows fall into the 40s to lower
50s with a few u30s in the southern dacks.

Friday into Saturday... The mid and upper level trough continues to
dig equatorward with another cold front approaching from the west
fri. Most of the day should be dry with just a slight chc of a lake
enhanced shower for the southern adirondacks. Brisk and cool
conditions will usher in temps very close to late sept seasonal
normals. A secondary cold front, and a trough of low pressure will
bring some scattered showers to the area late Fri night into sat.

Some differences between the 00z ec and 00z GFS with the evolution
of the the mid and upper trough, where ec has the low close off over
the lower great lakes region and a wave of low pressure developing
off the mid-atlantic coast, as some rain would spread north for the
2nd half of the weekend. Temps may close sept near normal or a
couple degrees below normal with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s,
and highs in the 50s to mid 60s.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
A strong ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will
remain in place over the region through today into tonight
providing hot and humid conditions.

Radiational fog mist is expected to dissipate quickly over kgfl
by 13z.VFR conditions are expected with plentiful sunshine due
to the strong subsidence with the ridge today into early this
evening at kgfl kalb kpsf kpou. A few-sct cirrus maybe around,
and perhaps a few diurnal cumulus at kpsf.

Some radiational mist and fog is likely at kpsf kgfl kalb
tonight especially after 06z with increasing dewpts and low-
level moisture. We are expecting lifr ifr conditions at these
locations. We were not as confident at kpou due to the dry
boundary layer and kept conditionsVFR for now.

The winds will increase from the north to northwest at 4 to 7
kt by the late morning into the afternoon. Local topographical
effects could allow for more of an east southeast wind at kgfl
at 5 kt or less. The winds will become calm once again early
this evening.


Monday night: no operational impact. Patchy fg.

Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Fire weather
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Temperatures
could reach record high levels today through Tuesday.

Rh values will be in the 90 to 100 percent range tonight and
Monday night. Rh values will drop to 40 to 60 percent this
afternoon and Monday afternoon.

Light and variable north to northeast winds will persist today,
then trend east and southeast Monday.

No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast
well into this coming work week as high pressure dominates. The
next chance for rainfall will be on Wednesday and Thursday with
less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Record high temperatures will be possible today through Tuesday.

Here is a list of the current record highs for september 24-26:
albany ny:
september 24th Sunday: 87 degrees 1961
september 25th Monday: 89 degrees 1970
september 26th Tuesday: 89 degrees 2007
daily records date back to 1874
glens falls ny:
september 24th Sunday: 86 degrees 1961
september 25th Monday: 84 degrees 2007
september 26th Tuesday: 87 degrees 2007
records date back to 1949
poughkeepsie ny:
september 24th Sunday: 91 degrees 1959
september 25th Monday: 89 degrees 1970
september 26th Tuesday: 90 degrees 2007
records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from january 1993 through july 2000.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Nas jvm
near term... Jvm
short term... Nas jvm
long term... Wasula
aviation... Wasula
fire weather... Nas jvm
hydrology... Nas jvm
climate... Aly staff

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 78 mi55 min 69°F 1019 hPa69°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalm--------------------SE4NW6--N4CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
1 day agoNW3------------------Calm--CalmN6N9N9N9N7NE9NE8NE6NE5N6Calm
2 days agoCalm------------------N4N4N6N4----N4NE10NE8NE8NE5NE5NE7NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sun -- 03:05 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:35 AM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:21 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:06 PM EDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Click for Map
Sun -- 02:55 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:27 AM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:11 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:58 PM EDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.