Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 2:42 AM   Moonset 12:04 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 010752 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 336 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
After a cloudy start to the morning, more breaks of sun are expected this afternoon with above normal high temperatures. Dry and tranquil weather continues through the end of the week, with cooler temperatures and increasing chances for showers over the weekend. Warmer temperatures and dry weather return to start the work week, although chances for showers increase again towards the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 3:40 AM EDT...A cold front and wave of low pressure that developed along the front are departing to our southeast, with most of the showers from earlier tonight having come to and end.
Behind this front, weak low-level winds and abundant moisture have allowed for widespread low stratus and some drizzle/mist.
Some patchy fog has formed where there are any breaks in the clouds, so we will likely remain quite damp through the remainder of the overnight period despite mid-level drying approaching from the west. The clouds have helped to keep temperatures elevated, with most areas in the 40s to 50s. The coldest spot is the upper Hudson Valley where northeasterly winds have allowed for some dry/cold air advection down from the north. Temperatures will drop a few more degrees from current levels between now and sunrise.

Today starts off with plenty of low clouds around which may help to keep temperatures on the cooler side to start the day, but with the surface low continuing to track further to the east and height rises aloft we should see more breaks in the clouds as we head into the afternoon. A warm front will begin to lift northeastwards across the region this afternoon and evening, which will help temperatures climb into the 70s for highs for valley areas, especially south of I-90. Exact highs today will depend on just how quickly the clouds clear this morning; if the clouds are slower to clear then temperatures will likely end up a couple degrees below the current forecast. Most of the rest of the region will see highs in the 60s today. Most of today will be dry, although there could be a few pop-up showers from the southeast Adirondacks through the upper Hudson Valley into southern VT this afternoon north of the advancing warm front.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Tonight and Thursday...The warm front continues lifting northeastward across our region tonight. We will likely see some mid-level clouds with the warm front, and mid/high clouds will also be increasing ahead of a potent upper disturbance that will track north of our region late tonight into tomorrow. Will bring in slight chance PoPs for the southern Adirondacks, the upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT late tonight in with this disturbance approaching, although the bulk of the precipitation should remain north of our forecast area. Went with lows near NBM/MOS guidance, with most places in the 40s to 50s. As the upper disturbance and associated surface low track north/northeast of our region tomorrow morning, the system's trailing cold front will track through the region. Behind the front, we should see more clearing, breezy conditions, and relatively deep mixing. Per collaboration with OKX, ended up dumping temperatures up a few to several degrees above NBM/MOS guidance especially considering the fact that even our valley areas are not quite greened up yet.

Thursday night through Friday night...A large-scale upper ridge will located near the Great Lakes Thursday night will amplify as it slowly tracks eastwards. The ridge axis moves overhead Friday night. A broad area of high pressure will be located downstream of the ridge in eastern Canada, with a ridge of high pressure at the surface extending southwards over eastern NY and western New England. Subsidence from these features should keep our area dry through at least midnight Friday night, although a couple showers can't be ruled out for western areas later Friday night as an upper disturbance and a low-level warm front approach from the west. As for temperatures, lows Thursday and Friday night will be mainly in the 40s to around 50. Highs Friday are somewhat tricky, as east/southeast flow around the surface high will result in cooler temperatures (highs in the 50s to 60s) across western New England, while areas further west that are closer to the upper ridge axis should see warmer temperatures (highs in the 60s to low 70s).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The period starts out Sat with an upper level ridge axis over our region, with surface high pressure over southern New England gradually shifting eastward off the coast. A frontal system will be approaching from the west and may bring some showers, especially later Saturday afternoon. Guidance differs on the timing due to possible slowing of the front as it encounters the ridging along the New England coast. Will mention slight to low chance PoPs for now with near normal temperatures. The better likelihood for showers arrives Sat night into Sun, as the system gets closer. Sun looks to be unsettled and cool with a low level SE flow and plenty of clouds around with showers continuing.

The last front should clear the area by Mon, with zonal W-NW flow developing as surface high pressure builds in. So dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures are expected. Tue also looks mainly dry at this time with seasonably warm temperatures, although will have to watch for a possible warm front starting to approach from the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic region. At this time, it appears the better chance of showers would hold off until Tue night.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 06Z Thursday...Showers continue to end from west to east, with just some light scattered -SHRA left around KPOU/KPSF. These will be ending by 07z-08z, with dry conditions expected the rest of the night. With plenty of residual low level moisture and not much wind, low level stratus clouds will persist through the rest of the night and this morning. Cigs are mainly at MVFR levels, except IFR at KGFL. Cigs should lower to IFR at KPSF and remain IFR at KGFL, with occasional IFR possible at KALB. Cigs at KPOU are expected to be slightly higher, remaining above 1000 ft.

Gradual improvement is expected with MVFR cigs at all sites by 14z, then eventually VFR by around 17z or 18z as some better mixing develops along with the strong early May sun. An isolated -SHRA is possible especially near KGFL during the afternoon, but coverage should be too sparse to mention in TAFs. VFR conditions will likely prevail through the rest of the period ending 06z Thursday.

Winds will initially be variable around 5 kt or less, becoming northwest around 4-6 kt by late this morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Wed -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 11:42 AM EDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
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Albany
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Wed -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 11:34 AM EDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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