Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mayfield, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:25PM Saturday May 25, 2019 6:59 AM EDT (10:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:23AMMoonset 11:24AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayfield, NY
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location: 43.1, -74.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 250833
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
433 am edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure across the region will depart the area today
as a warm front approaches. Clouds will be on the increase with
chances for showers moving in this afternoon and widespread
showers this evening into the overnight hours along with some
thunder possible. Warm on Sunday with mainly fair weather.

Memorial day will feature abundant sunshine and seasonable
temperatures.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 4 am... A surface high was centered directly over the area
early this morning. Winds are calm wind and skies mainly clear
as clouds spill overtop the upper ridge. Fog developed with some
locally dense. With sunrise the fog will dissipate. The surface
high will quickly shift southeast and off coast this morning
allowing a warm front to approach from the west. The upper ridge
will begin flatten as a short wave moves across the great lakes
region. Clouds will be in the increase with chances for showers
moving into the northwestern portion of the area by early to
mid afternoon.

Today will be warm than yesterday as southerly return flow
develops about the departing high. Expecting highs in the lower
to mid 70s in the valleys below 1000 feet with 60s above 1000
feet.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday night
Increasing chances for showers as we head into the evening as
the warm front and its associated low level jet move into the
region. Can not rule out some thunder tonight as a layer
elevated instability moves across the region in association with
the warm front. With the system's short wave passing well our
northwest moving northeastward from the great lakes region, the
better and more widespread chances for showers will mainly north
of i-90. With the upper flow flattened convection is expected
to track further east and south through the evening.

The showers will taper overnight as the warm front lift through.

This will leave the area in the warm sector to start Sunday and
it will be a warm day. Highs into the lower to mid 80s up the
hudson river valley and into northwestern connecticut with 70s
elsewhere. Any 60s should be limited to above 2000 feet across
mainly the southern adirondacks. Convection associated with
short wave rounding the top of the broad upper ridge approaching
from the ohio valley could graze the southwest portion of the
area during the afternoon however at this time only have slight
chance pops. Otherwise fair weather is expected as there is not
another trigger for convection.

Sunday night into Monday a northerly flow of drier and cooler
air will arrive as surface ridge axis slides east-southeast
across eastern canada. Expecting a tranquil day with abundant
sunshine and seasonable temperatures for memorial day. Clouds
will be back on the increase Monday night as another low
pressure system warm front approaches. Any threat for storms
should hold off until late Monday night early Tuesday morning.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Some unsettled weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday but some
if not all our region will be in a warm sector Wednesday and at
least part of Thursday. So, temperatures should be warm Wednesday
and Thursday despite the chances for showers and thunderstorms.

First, on Tuesday, there is a decent consensus from sources of
guidance ensembles that increasing warm advection and low level
forcing along a northeastward retreating boundary layer thermal
gradient and leading edge of low level jet energy and wind shift
from south to west will support chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the day Tuesday. The timing is a little in
question as there are some timing differences in sources of
guidance ensembles, some favoring the morning and other guidance
suggesting Tuesday afternoon. The instability in the advancing zone
of warm advection may support strong thunderstorms and needs to be
watched. Highs Tuesday in the lower to mid 70s but mid to upper 60s
higher terrain.

There is an increasing consensus for warmer weather Wednesday with a
possible prefrontal trough over our region Wednesday afternoon. This
depends on how far north the warm sector can get. Boundary layer
flow will be west to west southwest and somewhat strong, suggesting
some downslope flow and at least some intervals of clouds and Sun to
allow for some daytime heating. There are indications of some degree
of an elevated mixed layer and enhanced instability but it is too
early to tell with a high confidence. If the warm sector does not
extend much into our region until Thursday, then the best chances
for showers and storms would be west and south of our region.

However, based on a consensus for boundary layer flow to be west to
southwest across the entire region, it suggests warmer weather has a
good chance of spreading through our entire region. So, including
scattered showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon and
evening with highs in the 80s and some 70s in higher elevations.

Upper dynamics and the associated cold front are expected to track
through our region Thursday. Once again, timing will be important
in determining how much we heat up during the day and if the
elevated mixed layer and enhanced instability will exist along the
zone of low level convergence, strong boundary layer winds and cold
front. Highs Thursday in the 80s but around 70 to mid 70s higher
terrain. Again, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
will have to be watched for Wednesday and Thursday since not only
are there some instability and forcing signals in guidance but the
end of may has some history that cannot be ignored either.

By Friday, there should be some clearing and drying with
temperatures reaching the lower to mid 70s but maybe a few upper 70s
in warmer spots and some 60s in higher terrain.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will build across the TAF sites tonight before
drifting off the coast Saturday. A warm front will approach
from the southwest this evening.

The clear sky and calm winds will promote intervals of fog
development at kgfl and have included tempo for ifr fog through
about 11z. Some smaller chances for fog at kpou and kpsf and will
amend if fog does develop. After about 11z,VFR conditions as high
clouds spread over the region through the afternoon.

As the warm front approaches this evening, showers will begin to
develop and track into our area. Showers and MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are an increasing likelihood this evening at kgfl, kalb
and kpsf but just vcsh at kpou.

Light variable to calm winds through daybreak. Winds will become
southeast to south and increase to 5-10 kt by afternoon. Some gusts
up to, or greater than 20 kt could occur at kalb by late afternoon.

Steady south winds at around 10 kt by late afternoon at all taf
sites with gusts at kalb to around 20 kt through evening.

Outlook...

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Memorial day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Tsra.

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Tsra.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Dry start to the day with chances for showers moving in this
afternoon with widespread showers this evening into the overnight
hours. Warm on Sunday with mainly fair weather. Abundant sunshine
and seasonable temperatures for memorial day.

Hydrology
Another round of showers will overspread the area this
afternoon into tonight. Higher QPF amounts are expected to the
north and west of the capital district where 1 2 to an inch of
rain is expected with amounts dropping off to about a tenth of
an inch across the mid hudson vally and northwestern connecticut.

Warmer for Sunday with mainly fair weather. Dry memorial day.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service ahps
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Iaa
near term... Iaa
short term... Iaa
long term... Nas
aviation... Nas
fire weather... Iaa
hydrology... Iaa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------W15
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NE8NE6NE4NE4
1 day ago------------------S8S7SE5SE4S8--S5S5S5--S5S4S6--SW6
2 days ago--------------------NE3--N4N4
G14
----------------CalmW5

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:07 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:44 AM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:43 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:18 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.62.72.11.71.20.81.12.33.64.55.15.24.73.62.71.91.20.40.212.33.344.3

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:57 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:36 AM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:33 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:10 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.621.61.10.81.32.53.84.65.15.14.53.52.51.81.10.30.31.22.53.444.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.