Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mayfield, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:34PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:38 PM EST (18:38 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayfield, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.1, -74.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kaly 151823
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
123 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system will spread accumulating snow into
the region from south to north this evening into tonight. The snow
may mix with sleet and freezing rain for portions of the region.

Wintry precipitation tapers off from west to east Friday late
morning into the afternoon, with additional lake effect snow
possible for the higher terrain. Continued colder than normal
temperatures expected for the weekend with mainly dry conditions
outside of the lake effect belts.

Near term through Friday
Winter weather warning in effect this evening into tomorrow
afternoon for the capital district, schoharie valley, mohawk
valley, lake george saratoga region, northern taconics, and
helderbergs of eastern new york, the berkshires of western
massachusetts, litchfield county of connecticut, windham county
in vermont, and the southern adirondacks...

winter weather advisory in effect this afternoon through
tomorrow afternoon for the mid hudson valley, northern
taconics, washington county of new york and bennington county of
vermont
as of 1:15pm... Based on the latest guidance, trends and
extensive collaboration with the neighboring offices, we have
increased snow totals for the approaching winter storm in most
areas and thus, have upgraded our advisories to winter storm
warnings. Continued the winter weather advisory in the upper
hudson valley, northern taconics and bennington county, vt as
the expected wind regime should support downsloping effects in
these spots leading to lower snowfall totals.

In this latest update, we adjusted pops a bit to show a slightly
slower onset time due to the strong 1035mb high pressure over
the northeast. Still showing snow arriving from south to north
between 21z to 03z tonight. We introduced heavy snow wording
for this initial transient snowfall band where 1-2 inch per
hour rates are possible, as shown in the latest href guidance.

Temperatures today likely will stay under freezing and with dew
points in the single digits, wet bulbing processes should
decrease temperatures right when the snow begins into the 20s.

This means snow should have no issues accumulating. Impacts for
the evening rush hour are a high concern, especially for the
mid- hudson valley and litchfield county, ct.

Previous discussion here... Mid and level clouds have overspread
the entire region and they will continue to thicken through the
day as a large closed off upper low moves eastward up the ohio
valley. With the arctic surface high overhead today and the
increasing cloud fraction another very chilly day is expected.

The upper low will accelerate and become an open wave as it
reaches near nyc by 12z Friday. At the surface, a coastal low
will become dominant and deepen around 12 mb in 12 hours from
00-12z Friday as it moves from the DELMARVA to near long island.

Isentropic lift will increase rather quickly ahead of this
system, especially 00-06z, as SE winds on the 295k surface
increase to near 60-70 kt. This will allow saturation to occur
rather quickly despite the dry airmass. Trend in the guidance
has been for a slower precip onset compared with yesterday at
this time, such that the evening commute will be spared from the
mohawk valley capital district northern berkshires and points
north. South of there, snow should spread in and possibly impact
the commute as it becomes moderate to briefly heavy. The onset
of the system is reminiscent to the laterally translating band
composite in cstar research, meaning that heavy bands will be
transient for a particular area during this onset period, but
could still approach an inch per hour at times 00-06z. Lift will
be enhanced by a coupled jet structure.

From 03-09z, most models suggest that a combination of a warm
nose and dry slot aloft will allow precip to transition to
sleet, freezing rain, and perhaps freezing drizzle from south to
north. There is still uncertainty with how far north the mixture
gets, with the ECMWF and some of its ensembles being on the
colder snowier side of the guidance compared with the
gfs NAM href mean. Current forecast thinking is that a mixture
could be seen as far north as the central mohawk valley to glens
falls area (basically areas outside of the winter storm
warning). In the warning area, this is where we see the best 850
to 700 mb frontogenesis, as the pattern becomes more reminiscent
of the cstar pivoting band composite, although not totally as
the wave opens up so the heavier bands may be more progressive.

Still, snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are possible
in the warning area just to the north and west of the dry slot.

Snowfall accumulations here were adjusted upward accordingly.

Further south, the eastern catskills, mid hudson valley, and
litchfield hills and southern berkshires could see around a
tenth of an inch of ice, with locally higher amounts possible in
the higher terrain. Combined with gusty winds, this could result
in some isolated power outages.

From about 12-15z, the fgen deformation band is expected to
sweep eastward across the region, so areas that turned to mixed
precip may turn back to snow around the morning commute. Precip
appears to end rather quickly from west to east during the late
morning and early afternoon behind this band, and many spots
will warm back above freezing aside from the high terrain, which
could aid snow ice removal operations.

On average, the best lift will be located below the dgz, so
lower snow to liquid ratios are expected compared with
climatology. On average, expect that they will range from
8-12:1. This will result in a rather heavy, wet snow.

Qpf will be modulated by terrain with the strong low-level se
winds. Shadowing is likely in the lee of the higher terrain of
western new england for portions of washington county, the
taconics, and even eastern portions of the capital district, and
upslope enhancement likely on the eastern slopes of the greens,
berkshires, and catskills, and the southern adirondack
foothills.

As far as headlines, upgraded the southern adirondacks and
western mohawk valley to winter storm warnings as discussed
above. Elsewhere, many areas are borderline advisory warning
criteria. Felt it would be a better idea to leave the door open
for headline upgrades than to upgrade the borderline areas to
warnings right now, so the day shift can reassess.

Short term Friday night through Saturday
Friday afternoon into Saturday, lake effect snow will return to
the western adirondacks, tacking on around 1-5 additional
inches. Some upslope snow is possible over the southern greens
especially through early Friday night, so another couple of
inches is possible there. Otherwise, below normal temperatures
will continue with partial sunshine Saturday outside of the lake
effect belt.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Below normal temperatures through the period as the region
remains under a longwave trough with short waves rotating about
an upper level low as it moves eastward across eastern canada.

Lake effect snows are expected to linger into Saturday evening
then diminish by Sunday morning as weak surface high pressure
builds in disrupting the favorable flow off lake ontario. Mainly
fair weather is expected Sunday however the high will be quick
to shift off the coast.

There are some differences regarding the amplitude and timing
of an approaching short wave and associated cold front as we
head into next week. Have widespread chances for mainly snow
showers Sunday night and Monday as these features approach and
swing through. It may get warm enough Monday afternoon for some
rain showers up the hudson river valley and across northwest
connecticut.

With the passage of this cold front an even colder airmass is
expected to be ushered in with lows expected to drop into the
single digits and teens Monday night. As we head into Tuesday
the uncertainty in the forecast grows. At this time, have
chances for snow showers due to cyclonic flow and lake effect.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
High pressure is located over new england is starting to
depart.VFR conditions are currently in place for all sites with
just ovc mid and high level clouds, but precip is quickly
approaching from the south. Snow will begin near kpou by 21z and
should reach kpsf kalb by 23z and kgfl by 00z. Once snow
begins, it should quickly lower to ifr conditions for visibility.

After an hour or two of starting, it should be moderate to
locally heavy in intensity with ifr lifr conditions for
visibility and ceilings.

After a few hours of this, intensity will lower and some mixing
with pl fzra will occur at kpsf kpou. Some sleet is also
possible at kalb, but p-type should remain all snow at kgfl.

Visibility will improve somewhat for the 2nd half of the
overnight hours, but ceilings will remain borderline for
ifr MVFR through the rest of the overnight.

Towards daybreak, another round of steady precip (mainly in the
form of snow) is expected for a few hours into Friday morning.

Visibility ceilings will likely be ifr with this precip. Snow
will taper off by 14-15z, allowing for visibility to improve,
although some lingering MVFR ceilings are possible, especially
at kpsf kgfl.

Light winds this afternoon will become north to northeast at
5-10 kts tonight. Winds will become north to northwest on Friday
at around 10 kts.

Although not forecasted at this time, some llws will be possible
(especially for late tonight at kpou kpsf). This will ultimately
depend on how strong the surface winds are, as winds around 2
kft will be easterly around 30-35 kts.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Widespread wintry weather expected this evening through Friday
afternoon. Mainly dry outside of lake effect belts but continued
unseasonably cool through the weekend.

Hydrology
A low pressure system will bring widespread wintry precipitation
to the region Thursday afternoon into Friday. The precipitation
may become rain or freezing rain especially from the capital
district south Thursday night into Friday morning. QPF ranges
from around 0.60 to 1.30 inches, with the heaviest amounts over
the mid hudson valley, litchfield county, and the berkshires
where rivers are already running high. Flooding on the main stem
rivers is not expected, but some urban and poor drainage
flooding cannot be ruled out due to the saturated ground.

Mainly dry for the weekend outside of lake effect snow over the
western adirondacks.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Friday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter storm warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Friday for nyz058>061-063>066.

Winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 1 pm est Friday
for nyz032-033-038>042-047>053-082-083.

Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Friday for nyz043-054-084.

Ma... Winter storm warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Friday for maz025.

Winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 1 pm est Friday
for maz001.

Vt... Winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 1 pm est Friday
for vtz014-015.

Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Friday for vtz013.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Frugis thompson speciale
short term... Thompson
long term... Iaa
aviation... Frugis
fire weather... Thompson
hydrology... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 78 mi69 min 28°F 1033 hPa15°F

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY27 mi1.9 hrsENE 515.00 miFair27°F12°F54%1033.2 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrNW13
G20
W16
G21
--NW6NW7NW4--CalmCalm------------------CalmN6NE3E4E5E4
1 day agoNW7W12W10
G18
W9
G15
W11------N6------------------W11
G16
W12
G19
--W10
G21
W14
G20
W13
G21
2 days agoS3----S3CalmNE3--S3--------------------N3CalmN5N4NW3W7

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Troy
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:04 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:36 AM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:22 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:58 PM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3.72.61.91.20.4-00.41.62.83.5443.52.621.61.10.60.71.7344.54.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:54 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:28 AM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:12 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 PM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3.52.51.81.10.3-00.61.82.93.6443.42.51.91.510.50.81.93.24.14.64.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.