Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mattydale, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:49PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 6:20 AM EDT (10:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:33AMMoonset 10:37PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 131 Am Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Overnight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201706270900;;885626 FZUS51 KBUF 270538 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-270900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mattydale, NY
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location: 43.11, -76.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 270752
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
352 am edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
Today will remain cool and unsettled, as another upper level
disturbance, brings the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms, especially over central new york. By Wednesday,
drier weather and warmer temperatures are expected, as high
pressure builds over the region.

Near term through Wednesday
3 am update... Earlier showers have pushed eastward into the
hudson valley at this time, with patchy clouds and areas of fog
left in its wake. Fog could be locally dense in some of our
river valleys prior to daybreak.

The next system to impact the region later today will be a
vigorous short-wave compact upper low, well seen on satellite
imagery across eastern michigan early this morning. As this
system translates eastward, so will its cold core aloft (mid-
level temperatures as low as -22 to -24c). This will result in
an expanding area of showers embedded thunderstorms,
particularly over cny, from later this morning through the late
afternoon hours. Model soundings later today show a well mixed
low-level environment once again over the forecast area, topped
by steep mid-level lapse rates (700-500 mb lr near 7c km), some
dry air aloft, and fairly low freezing levels. These all point
to the possibility of gusty winds and hail with stronger
thunderstorms, so such verbiage will be added to our gridded
forecasts, and these threats will also be conveyed in our
hazardous weather outlook.

Temperatures will be cool again today, as we remain under the
influence of a chilly long-wave trough over eastern canada and
the northeastern states. In fact, highs this afternoon will stay
in the 60s for many areas, with only the wyoming lackawanna
valleys of nepa having a decent chance to eclipse 70 degrees.

Tonight, as the aforementioned short-wave upper low lifts out to
the northeast, drier air and sinking motion will develop over
cny nepa, leading to clearing skies over time. Only our far
northern zones (southern tug hill region) will retain a small
chance of showers, closer to the departing disturbance. Given
the probability of wet soils from recent rainfall and the onset
of good radiating conditions overnight, areas of fog seem like a
good bet in the usual twin tier river valleys. Lows by daybreak
should range from the upper 40s-mid 50s.

Wednesday looks like a pleasant early summer day, with a fair
amount of sunshine, and low humidity. Although readings will
certainly be warmer than the preceding couple of days,
Wednesday's highs will still be a bit below climatology for most
areas for late june, with temperatures ranging in the 70s.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
350 am update...

main concern will be for return of thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon-evening, some of which could be strong to severe with
gusty winds and or hail.

Wednesday night will be quiet, though clouds will be increasing
towards dawn ahead of the next system. It will probably be one
of those nights with a shallow surface inversion forming early
in the evening for the radiational cooling spots, yet
temperatures will hold milder for ridges and the lake plain.

Things turn interesting Thursday. Significant warm air
advection occurs, with southwesterly low level jet increasing
to 30-40 knots at 850mb. Associated warm front will be connected
to low pressure lifting from the upper midwest, across the
northern great lakes, to the ontario-quebec border. Meanwhile,
one or more shortwaves will zip through brisk westerly flow.

Precipitable water values will quickly get past 1.5 inches
Thursday afternoon through evening. Overall, enough coming
together for a likelihood of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon-
evening, especially in central new york; with at least some
threat for strong winds due to a good amount shear through most
of the column as well as some dry air in the mid levels to
promote downdrafts. Hail also a threat due to amount of
convective available potential energy at hail growth
temperatures, and strong storm relative flow around or greater
than 50 knots at the equilibrium level. Mixed layer CAPE looks
probable to get past 1000 j kg and perhaps 1500 j kg in the lake
plain. 0-1km helicity values get into the hundreds, which is
worrisome, and points to potential for isolated supercells as
the warm front lifts east. Factors counting against a more
organized severe threat include mid level lapse rates that will
not be steep, and slight 500mb height rises instead of falls.

Also, while a jetmax or will travel across the region aloft, it
is unsure at this point if placement will be favorable or
perhaps even unfavorable for ascent. So the synoptic forcing
picture is unclear.

Though warm front will shift north of the area Thursday night,
shallow mesoscale boundaries could shove potential convection
further south across the area Thursday night, and thus we will
have to watch of the possibility of training storms and locally
heavy rainfall from elevated precipitable water values.

Long term Friday through Monday
350 am update...

forecast adjusted towards latest multi-model blend. Same idea
holds true through the period; a busy weather pattern continues.

Though there will be dry intervals, it will be really tough to
go more than a day without showers-thunderstorms in the area.

Previous discussion...

sw flow aloft will prevail through most of the forecast period.

Multiple shortwaves are forecast to move across the region
through the period. This type of pattern will lead to an
unsettled weather, thus there is a chance for precip Friday
through Sunday. We may see another break in the pattern on
Monday which may bring us a couple days of dry weather.

It needs to be emphasized that although at least a chance of
showers storms will be in the forecast through this period, any
all-day washouts look highly unlikely, with significant rain-
free periods, and convective chances greater coincident with
peak heating during the afternoon early evening hours.

Friday-Monday, look for highs in the upper 70s-low 80s.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Saturday
A narrow window of clearing, along with wet ground conditions
from this evening's rainfall, will likely bring patchy fog to
the area during the pre-dawn hours (roughly 06-10z). It appears
that kelm has the best chance for ifr-below alternate minimums,
with lighter fog possible at kbgm and krme.

An area of showers embedded thunder, over western ny as of 06z,
should track into cny roughly 10-12z. Thus, we're advertising
the possibility of unrestricted showers. For now, we'll leave
any thunder out due to uncertainty.

For the most part, althoughVFR conditions will prevail today,
showers embedded thunder will remain a possibility through mid-
late afternoon. A somewhat greater chance for this occurrence
will be for our cny terminals, as opposed to kavp. Although
brief restrictions are possible, we'll leave things asVFR at
this juncture.

Generally w-sw winds will average 5-10 kt today. Any
showers thunderstorms later today could bring brief gusty winds,
perhaps 25-35 kt. SW winds will diminish later tonight to 5 kt
or less.

Outlook...

Wednesday... Possible early morning fog at kelm, otherwiseVFR.

Thursday through Saturday... At least periodic restrictions
anticipated in showers thunderstorms.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mlj
near term... Mlj
short term... Mdp
long term... Kah mdp
aviation... Mlj rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi50 min S 6 G 8 56°F 1013.5 hPa52°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 77 mi80 min SW 8.9 G 12 60°F 1014.6 hPa (-0.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 78 mi50 min 58°F 1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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W15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY2 mi26 minSSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F52°F90%1013.6 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi26 minSSE 34.00 miFog/Mist50°F48°F96%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW7W8W16W10W10N12
G16
NW10S3CalmCalmSW4E6SW6S5N3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmS3
1 day agoSW6SW6SW9W14SW15
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SW15NW9N3W5S4S4SW6SW6SW5SW4CalmW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW10W13W10W11W11W11W16
G19
NW9NW12NW13W15
G21
NW10NW11W9W11SW7SW7W9W7W7CalmW3SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.