Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mattydale, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:41PM Friday November 16, 2018 11:58 AM EST (16:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:47PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 338 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am est this morning through Saturday evening...
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers early, then a chance of rain and snow showers late this morning. Rain showers this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 11 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Rain and snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow and rain showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201811161615;;380814 FZUS51 KBUF 160838 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 338 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-161615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mattydale, NY
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location: 43.11, -76.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 161456
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
956 am est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Scattered snow showers behind a departing storm system will
continue this weekend. Another storm system will slide across pa
late Sunday and spread a few inches of new snow across ny and pa
by Monday morning.

Near term through Saturday
955 am update...

the winter storm warning is cancelled for all counties in our
forecast area. The heavy snow departed the region, but many
roads remain slippery due to existing ice and snowpack.

Mainly cloudy skies and widely scattered light snow showers are
forecast for the remainder of the day. A few glimpses of weak
sun are expected.

645 am update...

counties are starting to be dropped from the warning as the
heavy snow ends. Zones west of i-81 are already gone and it will
not be long before the others follow.

Previous discussion...

major winter storm will finish up across the region early to
mid morning. A final burst of 2 to 4 inches of snow will carry
southwest to northeast, bringing storm totals into the 8 to 14
inches range. Winter storm warnings remain in effect until the
back edge of moderate-to-heavy snow clears the area.

Warm layer aloft was able to pull even further northwest than
had been anticipated, which resulted in quite a lot of sleet as
well as freezing rain. Despite that, the storm also produced
heavier-than-anticipated snowfall rates on the front end of the
system when there was very deep lift and forcing from the right
entrance region of a departing jet as well as frontogenetical
forcing at the 700mb level. That front end however finished
surging northward, and with passage of opening wave aloft, the
warm layer aloft is now collapsing. This is abruptly changing
remaining wintry mix to moderate-to-heavy snow. While it will
not last very long, this final burst along a deformation zone
which is luckily progressive will be enough to add a quick 2-4
inches snow accumulation on top of what has already occurred.

In the wake of the system later this morning, lingering clouds
and just scattered snow showers can be expected during the day
with little if any additional accumulation, as well as becoming
mixed with rain showers at lower elevations. Highs of mostly mid
to upper 30s. There will, however, be another upper wave which
will initiate some cold air advection aloft this afternoon into
evening. It will bump 850mb temperatures down to about 5-7
degrees below zero celsius; enough to pick up a minor lake
response and thus lake effect snow showers and flurries carrying
across central new york this afternoon through tonight. Little
skiffs of snow accumulation could result, though especially in
northern oneida county which may get another couple inches or so
on the high terrain.

For Saturday, initial flat ridging will prevent temperatures
from changing very much, however an approaching wave later in
the day will increase clouds again while also causing chances
for rain-snow showers to reappear in the afternoon; mainly
central ny, and again especially for northern oneida county due
to moisture contribution of lake ontario. Overall a fairly
benign cool day.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday
Saturday night... A weak surface trough moves through the region
after 06z. Prior to this the flow is favorable for lake effect snow
showers across the northern forecast area primarily northern oneida
county. Marginal temperatures and shallow moisture will keep any
snow accumulations on the light side. After 06z the low level flow
becomes more northwest with the lake effect snow showers expected to
weaken. Outside of the lake activity the boundary may trigger a few
scattered snow showers or flurries primarily across central new
york. Overnight lows will generally range in the lower middle 20s.

Sunday Sunday night... Both the gfs ECMWF have an area of low
pressure moving from the ohio valley northeast into southern new
england. An area of isentropic lift north of the system may bring
the twin tiers some light snow later Sunday through Sunday evening.

The NAM is much weaker with this feature but leaned toward the
gfs ecmwf. For now will CAPE pops at high chance with light snow
accumulations possible, 1-2 inches. Any lake effect through this
period will likely be mainly north of the forecast area. Highs on
Sunday will range in the lower to middle 30s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
A broad upper level trough will remain over the northeast through
Wednesday with temperatures expected to run around 10 degrees below
normal through the period.

Monday through Tuesday scattered snow showers and flurries are
expected with the most widespread coverage Monday night and Tuesday
when another reinforcing shot of cold area pushes through the
region. By Tuesday night the snow showers should be confined to the
finger lakes and northern susquehanna region as the low level flow
becomes northwest. The coldest nights will be Tuesday night and
Wednesday night when lows in the teens will be common.

Thursday and Friday will be dry with surface high pressure in the
mid atlantic region which will slowly modify the airmass. Highs on
Friday may reach the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
12z update...

back edge of winter storm with its heavy snow has reached kbgm-
ksyr-kavp as of 12z, and will be gone from all terminals by 13z.

In its wake, ceilings will fluctuate between 1 and 3 thousand
feet through the day, though kelm and kavp will get intoVFR at
times, especially into tonight. A shot of lake-enhanced snow
showers will skim by kith early this afternoon and ksyr-krme for
a longer period this afternoon, which will cause ifr visibility
at times. For tonight, krme will persist at fuel alternate
required ceilings due to moisture off the lake, and could get a
few flurries, but ceilings at the remainder of terminals will
either beVFR or barely into MVFR. Surface winds are in the
process of flipping from variable light northeast or north to
west 8-12 knots as the system exits, with a few higher gusts
during the day.

Outlook...

Saturday through early Sunday... Intermittent restrictions from
lake effect snow showers; mainly ksyr-krme.

Midday Sunday through Sunday night... Passing wave with possible
light snow and associated restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday... MainlyVFR, but lake effect snow
showers cannot be ruled out at times especially ksyr-krme.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Djp
near term... Djp mdp
short term... Rrm
long term... Rrm
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi46 min S 6 G 8 31°F 1005.6 hPa28°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 77 mi58 min W 9.9 G 12 35°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 78 mi46 min 36°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY2 mi64 minN 03.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist30°F28°F96%1006.7 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi64 minSW 62.50 miUnknown Precip31°F26°F82%1006.5 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E10E10E10E9E10E11E11E14E15
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E11E10NE12NE10NE5N4CalmCalmE4SE3SW3NW3Calm
1 day agoN13W15
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NW11NW8W8W5W5SW4NW3NW3W3NE4E4E6E4E4E5E5E5E5E7NE7E7E11
2 days agoW7W10W9W10NW15
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W4W9W10W15W18W15W11NW11NW11NW9NW11
G18
NW9NW11NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.