Monday, February18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mattydale, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:40PM Monday February 18, 2019 12:01 AM EST (05:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:33PMMoonset 6:26AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 931 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening...
Overnight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north. Snow in the morning, then light snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then a chance of flurries overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of flurries. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of flurries in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow during the day, then sleet, rain, freezing rain and snow likely Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain and snow during the day. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LOZ044 Expires:201902181000;;105860 FZUS51 KBUF 180241 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 931 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-181000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mattydale, NY
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location: 43.11, -76.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 180030
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
730 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure over southwest pennsylvania will move east tonight
bringing snow to the area, with mixed precipitation over parts
of the southern tier of new york and in northeast pennsylvania.

Behind the system will be snow showers Monday afternoon and
night, followed by dry weather on Tuesday. Another storm will
bring mixed precipitation Wednesday into Thursday.

Near term through Monday
7 pm update...

minor updates to adjust to reality. Snow is racing in and
becoming more widespread. Snow is across the southwest half now
and should be in the rest of the CWA by 03z. Temperatures
adjusted up with upper 20s to around 30 now.

Previous discussion...

models have changed little in the last couple runs as we
approach our next system. Timing has slowed just a bit as the
snow approaches the forecast area. Looking at an initial 2 to 3
hour burst of snow as the lift with the overrunning hits the
area. Better upward motions lingers over the central and
northern zones overnight as the surface low approaches and an
upper jet pushes across the area.

To the south over the ny border into nepa, mid level drying will
cut off the moisture from the ice crystals above bring the risk
of freezing rain and drizzle into Monday morning, looks like
there could be a few burst of lift which may bring snow mixed in
as well at times.

Model QPF was similar with this run with storm total amounts
approaching 5 inches over the central and northern zones, an
inch or 2 in the south where a light glaze of ice likely. So, it
continues to be a marginal advisory event, but with the added
risk of affecting the Monday commute. Many schools are already
closed due to the holiday.

Cold air advects in behind the system bringing scattered snow
showers to much of the area later Monday morning into the
afternoon.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
High pressure will slowly build eastward into the region on
Tuesday. However, until that happens some scattered lake
effect snow showers and flurries will occur off the great and
finger lakes. This forecast is rather pessimistic than blended
model guidance clearing out skies and ending lingering lake
effect snow around the finger lakes given the northwest winds.

Clouds should actually keep low temperatures from tanking due to
a fresh snow cover. Still, it will be quite cold with morning
lows around 10 on Tuesday. Temperatures will be slow to rebound
with most places only getting into the 20's. Some high clouds
will start to move in ahead of the next system Tuesday night
that will keep temperatures from falling much lower than around
10 for most of the area.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
Wednesday through Thursday:
another area of low pressure looks to track from the ohio valley
into the eastern great lakes with a secondary low forming off
the mid-atlantic coast. A warm front will accompany these low
pressure systems that moves through Wednesday night. Light
precipitation is likely to develop as snow on Wednesday. Thermal
profiles show another occurrence of mid-level warming around
750-900 mb before the surface. As a result, a change to sleet
and freezing rain is likely late Wednesday night. Temperatures
warm enough Thursday for the precipitation to end as rain. The
best lift with the overrunning moisture looks to stay south of
the region in the mid-atlantic with much lighter precipitation
across our region. Some uncertainty in the location of the best
lift along the warm front is still present with the ECMWF having
this additional precipitation clip portions of the poconos.

Overall, a fairly consistent signal within the ensembles the
past several days with QPF more in the .1-.2 range at this time.

Guidance from our national center has also trended downward
into the range given the model trends. An exception could be if
the terrain enhancement similar to what the GFS 12z 2 17 pans
out across oneida county. Currently, a minor snow accumulation
followed by a light icing is the most likely outcome before a
change to some scattered rain showers late Wednesday night.

Daytime temperatures Wednesday look to top out in the 20's then
warm some Wednesday night with a non-diurnal trend still
anticipated.

Ensemble guidance is showing warmer temperatures on Thursday
with this model cycle. This will be likely be due to our
region being in the warm sector during the day as rain showers
clear out. The ECMWF suite is most aggressive with this warm-up
and has had a few occasions recently where the more aggressive
warm-up option several days out has occurred. This forecast will
trend temperatures in that direction with modeled 925 mb
temperatures above 0c, getting afternoon highs well into the
40's.

Thursday night through Sunday
Thursday night into Friday, some lake effect flurries snow
showers will be possible mainly along and north of the thruway
thanks to NW flow. A few rain snow showers are also possible
across NE pa through Friday morning behind the exiting low
pressure system. High pressure briefly takes control Friday
afternoon, with our best shot at dry weather. Temperatures start
in the upper teens and 20s reach highs in the 30s to low 40s.

Dry weather continues into early Saturday morning as
temperatures fall into the upper teens to mid 20s, then our next
system starts to work in. Indications are for an upper-level
low to develop over the midwest, with warmer and more moist air
working in and bringing our next chances for rain and snow
showers Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain and mixed
precipitation become more likely into Sunday as the low pressure
system tracks across the great lakes, then the cold front
should begin to pass through central ny Sunday evening. Look for
highs generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s both days, with
Sunday morning lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
640 pm update...

it wasVFR everywhere at 6 pm but not avp has fallen to ifr in
snow and bgm has fallen to MVFR. Conditions will rapidly drop to
ifr vsbys and fuel alternate MVFR CIGS by 03z in avp and south
central ny. Some sleet and freezing drizzle are possible late
tonight at these sites which could allow vsbys to rise to MVFR
but CIGS in south central ny will drop to ifr. At these sites
slow improvement starting midday Monday.

Rme syr will start outVFR and fall more slowly to ifr vsbys by
6 or 7z. CIGS will fall to fuel alternate shortly afterwards.

Slow improvement starting at 20z.

East to southeast winds at 5 to 10 kts tonight. Wind shift to
northwest at 10 kts with front around 13z. Winds increase to 10
to 12 kts with higher gusts midday and continue through the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night... MVFR restrictions expected with snow showers.

Tuesday into early Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Thursday... Restrictions likely in snow,
mixed precipitation or rain.

Friday...VFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Monday for paz043-044-
047-048-072.

Winter weather advisory until 2 pm est Monday for paz038>040.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 2 pm est Monday for nyz037-046-
057-062.

Winter weather advisory until 2 pm est Monday for nyz015>018-
022>025-036-044-045-055-056.

Synopsis... Dgm tac
near term... Dgm tac
short term... Mwg
long term... Hlc mwg
aviation... Tac


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi38 min E 2.9 G 6 22°F 1012.4 hPa16°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 77 mi62 min E 18 G 22 26°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 78 mi38 min 26°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY2 mi68 minE 79.00 miLight Snow25°F17°F72%1012.6 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi68 minE 31.50 miLight Snow22°F14°F71%1013.3 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W7NW4N4NW4N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4NE7N6NE4NE4N5N4NE6E7
1 day agoW9W6W9W13W13W14W15W12W13NW10W19
G24
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NW16W11NW12W11W13W11W8W6W5W4SW4SW4
2 days agoNE65NE3E9SE19
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SW11W11W5W14
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W14W13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.