Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 5:52 PM   Moonset 3:17 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405220315;;618336 Fzus51 Kbuf 212015 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 415 pm edt Tue may 21 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-220315- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 415 pm edt Tue may 21 2024
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 220025 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 825 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer like weather expected this evening into the day on Wednesday with hot temperatures. There will be isolated thunderstorms this evening, with more widespread thunderstorms expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few of the storms could be strong to severe. A cold front then settles south of the region giving us a short break with mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures on Friday. A series of disturbances brings chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and again on Memorial Day, with seasonable temperatures expected.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
630 PM Update...

No major changes to the near-term forecast. Increased temperatures over the next few hours with temperatures remaining well in the low- to mid-80s across the majority of the area, where near-term guidance struggles to maintain warm enough temperatures. Otherwise, forecast remains on track with chances for thunderstorms over the next hour or so in the northern portions of Central NY.

345 PM Update

Thunderstorms are firing up as expected mainly outside of our forecast area so far this afternoon (over the Adirondacks and eastern Catskills/Hudson Valley region. The next weak wave and surface convergence is developing over western NY now, and this may be enough of a trigger to start some scattered thunderstorm activity over the northern Finger Lakes, Syracuse metro and Mohawk Valley heading into the evening hours. MLCAPE is 1000-1500 J/kg, with LIs down to -5 in this area as of 3 PM.
There is some lingering surface based CIN present too. Effective layer shear is pushing 25-30 kts, with the supercell parameter between 1-2, showing some potential for a storm or two to become organized this evening...if it can tap into the full column of convective available potential energy. Any t'storm activity will wane to lingering showers by 9-10 pm with dry weather returning overnight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s for most locations. Model guidance was not showing much fog potential tonight.

Wednesday starts off dry, mostly sunny and very warm. The south-southwest winds boost temperatures well up into the 80s with low 90s in the valley locations. By mid to late afternoon some thunderstorm activity will begin to develop over western NY and western PA...these storms will then press east through the late afternoon and evening hours along the pre-frontal trough.
The environment continues to look favorable for some isolated strong to severe storms to develop. MLCAPE will be close to 2000 J/Kg, with DCAPE values 800-1100 J/kg also expected. Deep layer shear is lacking, only around 20 kts...but the ample instability and good directional shear may be enough to strengthen storms. There is a slight risk for severe storms over the western half of the forecast areas from SPC, with a marginal risk further east. The main threat will be isolated instances of damaging winds and even a chance for some 1"+ hail. With ample CAPE, frequent lightning and heavy downpours will also be possible with any storms. Current best timing estimate are 3-7 PM along and west of I-81...then 6-10 PM southeast of I-81 in Central NY and NE PA.

After the evening thunderstorms exit, there could still be some showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight as the front/trough stalls over the region. It will be rather muggy for late May, with lows in the 60s areawide.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
345 PM update...

A cold front will slowly pass through the region Thursday. There will be enough instability to support thunderstorms, though severe storms look unlikely at this time. High pressure will bring in drier air behind this front. Showers and storms will move out of the region by the evening with dry conditions to follow during the overnight hours thanks to the high pressure. Dry conditions will likely persist through at least Friday morning before a weak shortwave then moves east from the Ohio River Valley late in the day. This system may bring some showers and storms to portions of the region late Friday and overnight but there does remain on some uncertainty on timing and coverage.

Temperatures will not vary much between the two days in this forecast period as highs will be in the 70s/80s and lows will be in the 50s/60s. Friday will be the warmer day with highs in the 80s more widespread.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
345 AM update...

The aforementioned shortwave will move through the region Saturday and will bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms for the morning hours. Then a cold front pushes through with an additional round for showers/storms for the overnight hours. The second half of the weekend will be dry as high pressure builds back into the region. This dry period will be brief as a low pressure system moves in Sunday night into Monday, though showers and storms look more probable on Monday. There may be a brief lull on Tuesday but the next system will not be too far behind. Temperatures will trend cooler throughout this period with highs going from 70s/80s on Saturday to 60s/70s by Tuesday. The lows will be in the 50s each night this period.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
150 PM Update

Showers and thunderstorms are moving east of SYR and RME. The remainder of the night will be VFR with light southerly winds prevailing. Don't expect we'll close the T/Td gap at ELM tonight, especially with no rainfall there, therefore no visby restrictions are expected.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will push through the region late Wednesday afternoon or early in the evening, likely affecting NY terminals between 22-24Z, and just outside the TAF period at AVP. Confidence is fairly high in thunderstorms occurring, low confidence in specific impacts, so just carried a PROB30 group for brief visby restrictions for now, though gusty winds are likely with stronger storms.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR. Patchy early morning valley fog possible.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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