Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bandon, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:54PM Tuesday February 19, 2019 11:16 PM PST (07:16 UTC) Moonrise 6:15PMMoonset 7:29AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 855 Pm Pst Tue Feb 19 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Another front will move into the area late tonight into Wednesday. This will bring an area of small craft advisory winds followed by very steep and hazardous seas for most areas. Winds and seas will begin to subside Thursday and moreso Friday as high pressure moves through. Then another front will move in Saturday, bringing another round of steep to very steep seas that will last into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bandon, OR
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location: 43.12, -124.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 200619
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1019 pm pst Tue feb 19 2019

Aviation For the 20 06z tafs... Along the coast and into the
umpqua basin (including koth and krbg), rain will produce
widespread MVFR CIGS vsbys through the night and into Wednesday.

Elsewhere (including kmfr and klmt), a mix of rain and snow or
just snow will develop this evening and bring MVFR to occasional
ifr CIGS vsbys through the night into Wednesday. -wright

Prev discussion issued 848 pm pst Tue feb 19 2019
discussion... The atmosphere continues to moisten this evening
ahead of low pressure located near vancouver island and a surface
cold front extending offshore. Nnw flow aloft will allow short
wave energy to dig sse and with plenty of pva, expect good forcing
for periods of rain and snow across the CWA tonight into
Wednesday morning. Some rain is falling at the coast and recent web
cams showed rain falling mainly from roseburg northward. Light
snow was also falling over toward diamond lake and willamette
pass and it looks like its trying to snow at dead indian memorial
road. Expect precipitation to steadily sink south and eastward
this evening and overnight. Snow levels are currently in the
2000-2500 foot range, but expect these to dip a bit overnight as
precipitation initially falls into a drier air mass and then
intensity increases. Snow levels could drop to near or even
slightly below 1500 feet at times around sunrise Wednesday. We
have adjusted the winter weather advisory to include siskiyou
summit since there could be a period of impactful snowfall (rates
~1" hour) late tonight or just before the Sun comes up tomorrow as
per recent runs of the high resolution ensemble (href). There
could be a few inches of snow on the higher passes north of
medford too by Wednesday morning, so travelers on i-5 should be
prepared for winter driving conditions and possible delays. A foot
or more of snow is likely in the mountains north of howard
prairie and also near mount ashland. The remaining headlines look
fine and no further adjustments are necessary.

The main frontal forcing shifts SE Wednesday, but the cold pool
aloft will keep plenty of showers going through the day and into
the evening, focused in the cascades siskiyous and areas north and
west. Due to the convective nature of the precipitation, expect a
mixture of rain snow showers or even possibly graupel below 1500
feet Wednesday afternoon with just snow showers above that. But,
most daytime road accumulation will be reserved for elevations
2000 feet and higher, since ground temperatures below 2000 feet
are likely to rise above freezing. As the upper trough continues
to move southward through the area Wednesday evening and night,
showers will gradually diminish, but at the same time, snow
levels will fall to valley floors again west of the cascades. This
could result in some light snow accumulations on lower valley
floors by Thursday morning. -spilde
marine... Updated 200 pm pst Tuesday 19 february 2019... Another
front will move into the area tonight into Wednesday. This will
bring an area of small craft advisory winds followed by very steep
seas for most areas. The seas will be a combination of wind
driven short period waves, fresh northwest swell, and longer
period northwest swell. Winds and seas will subside late Thursday
but moreso Friday as high pressure moves through. There will
probably be a period of small craft advisory conditions Thursday
afternoon and evening south of CAPE blanco before conditions
improve there. Then another front will move in this weekend,
bringing another round of steep to very steep seas Saturday
afternoon that will last through Sunday. Details on timing and
strength of this system are still moderately uncertain. Keene
prev discussion... Issued 424 pm pst Tue feb 19 2019
short term... Rain and snow will move into the area this evening
through Wednesday morning as an upper level shortwave moves into
the area from the north. Widespread moderate to locally heavy rain
and snow showers are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening,
decreasing in intensity and coverage late Wednesday evening and
Wednesday night.

This weather system will bring another round of low elevation
snow to the area as well as heavy snow in the southern oregon
cascades and western foothills. Snow levels will start out around
2000 to 2500 feet this evening, lowering to 2000 feet late in the
evening and tonight. Models are in agreement showing the
potential for snow levels to dip to 1500 feet as cold temperatures
aloft at 850 mb of -4 to -5 deg c move into areas west of the
cascades late tonight and early Wednesday morning. So expect snow
down to 1500 feet by Wednesday morning. Of note, ground
temperatures may be above freezing in western valley locations, so
snow accumulations on lower valley floors near 1500 feet may be
brief. Still slippery roads are expected with any snow that
occurs, including during the morning commute time. At and above
2000 feet, confidence is high for accumulating moderate snow
tonight into wedensday. Expect moderate snow accumulations at and
above 2000 feet with heavy snow in the southern oregon cascades
and western foothills tonight into Wednesday. East of the cascades
and into siskiyou county expect a mix of light to moderate snow.

For east side and northern california areas, moderate snowfall is
expected mainly into the areas north of chiloquin and over the
higher terrain and klamath and lake counties and across western
siskiyou county.

This pattern continues during the day Wednesday and into
Wednesday evening as a cold showery airmass moves overhead with
moderate to locally heavy showers. Shower activity will decrease
in coverage and intensity late Wednesday evening through early
Thursday morning. Flow aloft will turn northwest Wednesday evening
as areas of moderate showers continue over the area. This
northwest flow pattern will favor the best chance for heavier
showers over west and northwest facing slopes, especially along
the siskiyous, cascades and umpqua divide. With lowering snow
levels during the evening, lowering back down to 1500 feet, expect
snow accumulations in areas favored under northwest flow like the
southern rogue valley, including ashland, talent, phoenix and
areas along the umpqua divide south of canyonville. Other areas
from 1500 feet or higher may see light to moderate showers
Wednesday evening. Overnight, expect showers to decrease in
intensity and coverage but also snow levels will lower to 1000
feet and locally lower. So a dusting of snow is possible on lower
valley floors.

Winter weather warnings and advisories are in place for this snow
event this evening through Wednesday evening. Please see the
wswmfr for details.

Thursday, expect a cold start to the day with morning lows in the
20 to 30 degree ranges for most inland areas west of the
cascades. East side valley temperatures are expected to be in the
lower teens early Thursday morning. Temperatures will warm during
the day to the upper 30s and low 40s across western valleys and
to the upper 20s to lower 30s in eastern valleys. Some lingering
light snow showers or snow flurries are possible on Thursday but
little or no snow accumulation is expected. Then cold and dry
weather is forecast for Thursday night.

Long term... Fri, feb 18th through tues night, feb 26th...

the numerical models are in good agreement at the beginning of this
forecast period, through this next weekend. Model agreement then
deteriorates early next week.

Friday afternoon through Sunday another upper level trough will push
in from the northwest bringing a slow moving frontal system into the
area. Snow levels are expected to be mostly in the 2500-3500 foot
range Friday afternoon and evening as precipitation pushes into
southwest oregon from the northwest. Friday night into Saturday
morning appears to be when most of the precipitation with the front
will occur. Snow levels then are likely to be mostly in the 2000-
3000 foot range during that time period, as the front doesn't really
push all the way through- rather a wave forms along it and moves
through the area in a west to east fashion. 2-6 inches of new snow
is expected Friday night into Saturday morning in the oregon
cascades and siskiyous, with the higher amounts in the cascades.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday snow levels are likely to
fluctuate between 1500 and 2500 feet with generally light
precipitation expected to continue. There are some differences in
the models regarding snow levels, with the GFS a bit colder than the
ecmwf. At this lead time we won't be able to resolve the valley snow
situation, but the guidance supports accumulations being mainly
above 2500 feet.

For Monday into Tuesday the models are indicating a burst of
westerlies moving into the forecast area. What they mostly disagree
about is the amplitude of this frontal system associated with this
westerly wind burst. Due to the origins of moisture with this system
being from the subtropics, we're expecting higher precipitation
amounts from this system once it arrives and also higher snow
levels. However, looking at the 300mb wind fields and the previous
forecast, the westerly wind burst itself appears to be a new
development in the guidance. Thus, expect an update on the expected
weather for early next week with tomorrow afternoon's discussion.

Btl

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst Wednesday for
orz029>031.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst Wednesday above 1500
feet in the for orz024-026.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst Wednesday above 1500
feet in the for orz023.

Winter storm warning until 10 pm pst Wednesday for
orz025-027-028.

Winter storm warning until 10 pm pst Wednesday above 3000 feet
in the for orz026.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst Wednesday for orz028.

Ca... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst Wednesday above 2000
feet in the for caz080-081.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 4 am Wednesday to
10 am pst Thursday for pzz356.

Hazardous seas warning from 4 am Wednesday to 10 am pst Thursday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Wednesday for
pzz350-370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNTO3 12 mi47 min SW 1.9 44°F 1020 hPa43°F
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 16 mi41 min WNW 21 G 27 50°F1018.7 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 27 mi29 min WSW 1.9 G 6
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 46 mi47 min 52°F7 ft

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR23 mi21 minWNW 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast46°F42°F86%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE6SE6SE5SE3SE5SE8S6SE6SE7SE8SE3CalmSE7SE6SW6W9W7SW5S5S5SW6W11NW14
1 day ago--SE7SE6SE4SE8SE7CalmSE6SE4S4SE4CalmCalm3NW6N9N11N11N12N8NE5NE7CalmSE4
2 days agoSE9SE11SE6SE8SE8SE8SE6SE8SE5SE6S5SE8SE643N4N9N8N13N6N6CalmS4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Bandon, Coquille River, Oregon
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Bandon
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Wed -- 12:35 AM PST     7.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM PST     1.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:05 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:09 PM PST     8.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:53 PM PST     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:32 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.976.24.93.42.21.61.82.94.56.27.68.27.96.74.82.60.7-0.6-1-0.41.13.15.1

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
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Wed -- 12:46 AM PST     7.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM PST     1.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:05 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:25 PM PST     8.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:01 PM PST     -1.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:32 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.47.775.63.92.41.61.72.64.36.27.88.78.77.55.53.10.9-0.7-1.3-0.80.72.95.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.