Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Eliot, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:16PM Sunday November 19, 2017 3:52 AM EST (08:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:27AMMoonset 6:27PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 1227 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect from 6 am est this morning through this evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain.
Sun..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming W 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ100 1227 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure over the ohio valley will strengthen rapidly as it moves north and east...passing over northern new england Sunday and into the canadian maritimes Sunday night. High pressure builds in behind this system on Monday and Monday night before moving offshore on Tuesday. Another low pressure system tracks north of new england Tuesday night and Wednesday...pushing a cold front through the region. High pressure builds back into the area on Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Eliot, ME
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location: 43.12, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 190326
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1026 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure moving through the saint lawrence valley will push
a warm front northward through northern new england tonight.

Expect mostly rain as this moves through, but northern areas
could begin as light snow or freezing rain before the
temperature warms overnight. As the low moves east on Sunday it
will drag a cold front across the region from west to east,
causing temperatures to fall through the day and winds to become
gusty. Expect cold conditions continuing on Monday before a warm
up on Tuesday. Another cold front moves through on Wednesday
with cold air spilling in for the last half of the week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
1000 pm update...

after a brief period of rain and sleet at the onset of precip in
southern zones most areas have gone over to rain and
temperatures are now above freezing. Farther north pockets of
sleet and freezing rain are occurring in in areas where a winter
weather advisory remains in affect. This likely resulting in
slick roads in colder mountain valleys. Still expecting little
in the way of sleet or ice accumulation and temperatures in
these areas will gradually rise above freezing after midnight.

Have adjusted temp TD pop and wx grids based on current obs and
radar. No major changes planned to current forecast attm.

Prev disc...

700 pm update...

light to moderate rain currently pushing into southwest new
hampshire early this evening and this will quickly overspread
much of the state as well as adajacent western maine through
midnight. Ahead of this area scattered light rain showers are
mixing with a little sleet and snow across southeast new
hampshire and southwestern maine. Expect this to quickly go
over to plain rain as lower levels saturate and dew points rise
above freezing. Farther north... Winter weather advisories
remain in affect for freezing rain... Sleet or snow. Expect
steadier precip to the southwest to move into these areas
between 800 and 1000 pm. Have updated grids to reflect current
radar trends and surface obs. No other changes planned to the
forecast attm.

Prev disc...

as low pressure moves through the saint lawrence valley tonight
a warm front will lift northward through new england. Already
seeing precipitation beginning across southern new england, and
this will spread northward into new hampshire and maine this
evening. The leading edges of this could begin as snow, but
expect this to be primarily a rain maker. The only exception
will be in interior parts of western maine and northern new
hampshire where low level temperatures may stay below freezing
for a while as the rain begins. Low level dry air is still
fairly impressive, and it is likely that as precipitation begins
it will cause temperatures to fall more through evaporational
cooling than radiational cooling. As the night GOES on expect
temperatures to warm, and by morning it should be above freezing
just about everywhere. Have issued a winter weather advisory
for areas that are most likely to see some light freezing rain
tonight. Do not expect much accumulation, but it will be just
enough to make roads slick.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
A cold front will move from west to east across the forecast
area during the first part of the day on Sunday. This will shut
off the precipitation and shift winds to the west. Pretty good
cold advection signal behind this front suggests good low level
mixing and falling temperatures during the day. 850 925 mb winds
are forecast to be 40 to 50 kt, so expect with good cold
advection these will mix down with high efficiency especially to
the east of the mountains where downsloping conditions will aid
in the process. Have issued a wind advisory for this area,
though wind gusts will be primarily on the low end of advisory
criteria. This could be just enough to down a few limbs and
cause a few isolated power outages. Winds stay up into the
evening hours, but will begin to lose their gust potential
overnight. With the low levels well mixed expect low
temperatures to be driven more by cold advection than
radiational cooling, and will generally be in the 20s.

Long term Monday through Saturday
High impact weather potential:
* gusty winds on Monday approach wind advisory criteria.

Pattern implications: the pattern across north america has been
rather progressive over the past week with shortwaves impacting our
region every two to three days. Current and recent runs of the
deterministic and ensemble guidance suite continue this idea
through this long term forecast period... Although with the nao
beginning to shift negative and the ao following suit... Its not
surprising to find both the GFS and ec and their respective
ensemble means carving out a more long-lasting trough over the
eastern united states by the end of this forecast period into
next weekend. With the fact-paced flow in place... Expect a bit
of a roller-coaster ride in terms of temperatures... With a few
shortwaves and associated precipitation chances.

Model trends confidence: deterministic and ensemble guidance is in
good agreement on the large scale pattern through Tuesday of next
week before diverging somewhat for the middle and latter
portions of the week. The primary differences concern the
handling of digging shortwave energy Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Recent GFS ggem solutions drop significant energy
along the western flank of advancing trough... Closing off a mid
level low over the southeast on Wednesday while the 18.00z
ecmwf favored more of this energy remaining with the northern
feature with a stronger h5 trough reaching the east coast on
Wednesday. 18.12z ECMWF has trended closer to the GFS ggem
camp... And given much better ensemble support for this solution
will lean heavily in that direction with this forecast package.

Forecast agreement increases after this period with cool
northwesterly flow enveloping the northeastern united states.

The details...

Monday: -1 to -2 sigma pwat anomaly moves overhead under robust
northwesterly flow with high pressure arriving from the west
towards evening. Residual moisture and cyclonic flow will allow
ongoing mountain snow showers to continue through the morning
with decreasing clouds expected to rule the day. T9s generally
-5 to-10c indicate highs in the mid 20s north to mid 30s
south... Nearly 10 degrees below normal for the date.

Winds: with the core of the h5 trough overhead... Model soundings
suggest a great llevel mixing setup... With mixing height reaching
above 6 kft. This should take full advantage of winds at this
height around 40kts. Thus... Expect winds 15 to 25 mph
sustained... With gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely. Can t rule out a few
gusts around wind advisory levels. Future shifts will certainly
need to watch for the potential for additional wind advisory
headlines.

A combination of coupled llevel wind flow 1000 mb geostrophic winds
around 20kts and a period of sct bkn mid level cloudiness
should help lows from getting too out of hand... But a few
isolated locations may be able to radiate. However... Teens and
20s look most likely for lows... Close to model consensus.

Tuesday: return flow with rapid warm advection moving t8s back above
freezing. Given the setup... A return to warmer than normal
temperatures is expected. It again looks breezy... But now from the
southwest as backing flow aloft strengthens to +1-2 sigma at the h8
level. T9s reach back towards 5c which indicate that given good
mechanical mixing... Southeastern nh will likely reach into the
lower 50s... But it won t feel quite this warm given the breeze.

Wednesday-Thursday: as described above... Forecast confidence
decreases somewhat for the important thanksgiving travel
period... Although the 18.12z guidance suite is trending towards a
consensus. This would favor a moisture-starved northern stream
shortwave and associated frontal passage on Wednesday followed by
high pressure briefly building into the region for thanksgiving.

Temperatures near climatology on Wednesday ahead of the front
Wednesday moving back below normal for the thanksgiving holiday.

Friday-Saturday: have to keep an eye on the cutoff energy over the
southeastern states as next northern stream shortwave arrives from
the west. There have been varying signals for some semblance of low
pressure along the east coast Friday... But with the most likely
solution keeping precipitation offshore. Thus... Would await the
surface low associated with the northern stream shortwave for any
sensible weather impacts. No signal for significant departure of
temperatures from seasonal norms... With chance pops for
Saturday.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
Short term...VFR conditions give way to ifr ceilings and rain
this evening and overnight. Winds shift to the west behind a
cold front tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon strong cold
advection will allow these winds to gust up to 35 or 40 kt
before diminishing a bit overnight.

Long term... Improving toVFR Monday with continued strong
northwesterly wind gusts to 35kts. ExpectVFR conditions to
largely dominate the week... With a cold frontal passage
Wednesday bringing the potential for some restrictions in
shra sn on Wednesday.

Marine
Short term... Expect gale conditions as a cold front moves
through early on Sunday. There is a chance that southerly winds
reach gale force ahead of the front, but the big show will be
behind the front when winds shift to the west and gust up to 45
kt in a cold west wind. Gusts should diminish below gale force
by around midnight Sunday night. Wave heights will be highest
further from shore.

Long term... Another period of gale force gusts over the outer
waters is likely on Monday with scas elsewhere... With winds
diminishing... But waves remaining elevated Monday night. Winds
shift southwesterly and strengthen on Tuesday with scas likely
to continue into Wednesday before diminishing winds and waves
are expected for the end of the week into the weekend.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Wind advisory from noon Sunday to midnight est Sunday night
for mez012-018>028.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Sunday for mez007>009-
012>014.

Nh... Wind advisory from noon Sunday to midnight est Sunday night
for nhz004-006-008>010-012>015.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Sunday for nhz001-002-
004.

Marine... Gale warning from 6 am Sunday to midnight est Sunday night for
anz150>154.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 4 mi67 min E 2.9 49°F 994 hPa49°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 15 mi52 min SSE 22 G 23 51°F 993.1 hPa (-4.9)50°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 21 mi52 min SSE 4.1 50°F 50°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 22 mi108 min S 12 G 14 51°F 49°F3 ft996 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi46 min 52°F4 ft
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 44 mi108 min SSE 12 G 12 53°F 50°F2 ft994.7 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 46 mi62 min S 14 G 16 51°F 50°F4 ft994 hPa (-4.4)49°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH2 mi1.9 hrsSE 55.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist49°F47°F97%995.2 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH12 mi61 minN 00.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist45°F45°F100%993.1 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME21 mi56 minN 05.00 miRain Fog/Mist40°F39°F97%994 hPa

Wind History from PSM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W5W7SW5SW5W3CalmS3S4SE7S4SE4CalmCalmCalmE3E4NW3S5SE5S3SE6SE5SE8
1 day agoW14
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2 days agoNW4CalmCalmNW3SE3SE12SE13SE13SE12SE11S5CalmNE5N6NW5NW7NW8NW6NW4W5W8W9W12W13

Tide / Current Tables for Dover Point, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire
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Dover Point
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Sun -- 12:51 AM EST     6.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:39 AM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:56 PM EST     6.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:15 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:11 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.26.45.94.631.50.60.51.22.54.25.76.776.55.33.51.70.5-0.10.21.22.74.3

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
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Sun -- 12:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:28 AM EST     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:13 AM EST     1.23 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:54 PM EST     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:15 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:53 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:41 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.6-0.1-1.1-1.7-1.7-1.5-1.1-0.20.71.21.10.90.70.1-0.9-1.7-2-1.8-1.5-0.90.10.910.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.