Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Eliot, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:37PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:34 AM EST (07:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:44AMMoonset 5:25PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 1109 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of snow. Light freezing spray. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Light freezing spray in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain and snow. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain and snow in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ100 1109 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure remains to the north tonight and Tuesday. Low pressure develops off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday and moves northeast through the gulf of maine Wednesday. High pressure builds south of the waters Thursday and into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Eliot, ME
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location: 43.12, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 160227 cca
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service gray me
927 pm est Mon jan 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will develop off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday and
then intensify as it moves northeast through the gulf of maine
Wednesday. High pressure builds eastward into the region late
in the week and into the weekend with a return southwest flow
bringing warmer temperatures by the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Update... Onshore flow continues. With moist low levels and
convergence over land... Weak low level lift is resulting in
persistent snowfall. Much like the miserable mist we see in the
spring time with cold... Onshore flow.

00z gyx sounding shows a saturated layer only around 100 mb
thick... 1000 to 4000 ft agl. But just about all of it is colder
than -10c. This layer also features unidirectional due E flow.

Aside from NE winds at the surface... That is the only ely
component to wind in the entire sounding. Until we lose that ely
flow... The snow will likely continue. Forecast models are far to
nly with low level winds at the moment... Which is why there is a
lack of guidance supporting snowfall. Forecast soundings do show
that after 06z... Very low level winds above the surface try and
become more wly. I suspect that despite these winds being biased a
little too nly... They show the general trends of veering flow and
a gradual weakening if not end of onshore snowfall.

Previous discussion... Arctic high pres anchored well to the
north will continue to produce a light northeast flow through
tonight helping to continue spreading some low clouds from the
bay of fundy and off the coastal waters into southern and
central areas of me nh. There may be some flurries or very light
snow with this cloud deck as well, but accumulations are not
expected at this time. Also, high clouds will be spreading east
into the western areas of the region later this evening from the
approaching upper trof to the west. Due to the arctic dome
anchored to the north and nosing south into the area tonight,
another cold night expected. But, temps will not be as cold as
last night due to the clouds. A blend of guidance temps seemed
reasonable with overnight lows ranging from about 5 below in the
mountains to around 10 above along the coastal plain.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
On Tuesday skies will be generally mostly cloudy as a southwest
flow aloft develops ahead of the digging positively tilted,
progressive, long wave trof over the great lakes. With weak waa
overunning developing in the afternoon, some light snow may
begin to develop across nh. Temps will be warmer with highs in
the 20s.

Tuesday night the upper trof approaches the mid atlantic coast
spawning low press off the DELMARVA peninsula. This low will
deepen as it moves northeast toward CAPE cod by Wed morning.

Snow will overspread the forecast area from south to north
Tuesday night and may become heavy at times after midnight
through Wednesday morning.

Of note: models that have been further east the last few days have
generally come in line today with the euro solution of keeping
the track of low pres closer to the coast and also deeper.

Latest 12z euro run is even further north thus the increased
confidence for the winter storm watch issuance at this time.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Snow, possibly heavy at times is expected for the Wednesday
morning commute in the watch area, with light to moderate snows
to the nw. In general, 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected across
our forecast area, with locally higher amounts possible in the
monadnocks. This system will be a pretty fast mover so most of
the accumulating snow will end by mid-late Wednesday afternoon
- sooner across western and southern zones.

Thereafter, a long stretch of dry (or mainly dry) weather is
expected through the weekend along with a warming trend. The
next system of interest continues to be advertised on a good
portion of the 12z model suite in the mon-tue timeframe. This
could be a mix to rain type event, but changes at this time
range are pretty certain.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term... Some MVFR CIGS expected at times tonight into tue
over southern and central areas of me nh while further northVFR
conditions will prevail. By late Tue and Tue night conditions
will deteriorate to ifr as snow overspreads the area from s-n.

Long term... Ifr or lower expected Wednesday morning in snow
before improving toVFR from SW to NE Wed afternoon and evening.

Vfr expected Wed night through the weekend.

Marine
Short term... Outer waters - SCA winds from the north will
continue into this evening and then diminish but seas will be
slow to subside until Tue morning. Tue and Tue night winds and
seas will be light. In the bays - winds will be light and seas
below 5 ft.

Long term... SCA conditions are possible Wed through thurs in the
wake of low pressure moving into the maritimes.

Hydrology
All rivers but the kennebec at aug have fallen below flood
stage, but ice jams have frozen into place in some areas, and
rivers need to need to monitored as these jams could move
without notice.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter storm watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
afternoon for mez012-018>028.

Nh... Winter storm watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
afternoon for nhz004>015.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Tuesday for anz150-152-154.

Near term... Legro


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 4 mi109 min N 2.9 1034 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 15 mi34 min N 13 G 14 20°F 1033.4 hPa (-0.5)18°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 20 mi46 min N 7 G 9.9 17°F 35°F1034.1 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 21 mi94 min NNW 5.1 17°F 11°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi58 min 44°F10 ft
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 44 mi90 min 14 G 16 26°F 40°F10 ft1031.8 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 46 mi44 min N 14 G 18 19°F 41°F7 ft1033.9 hPa (-1.1)16°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 48 mi46 min 16°F 34°F1034.4 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH2 mi38 minN 710.00 miOvercast18°F11°F73%1033.6 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH12 mi43 minN 610.00 miOvercast17°F12°F80%1033.2 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME21 mi38 minN 59.00 miLight Snow16°F12°F84%1034.6 hPa

Wind History from PSM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N13N10N11N13
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1 day agoNW6W8W7W6W5NW6NW9NW9NW6N8N4N3NW5NW6NW6NW5NW4N6N7N7N9N8N10N9
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2 days agoSE10S14
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Tide / Current Tables for Dover Point, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire
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Dover Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:08 AM EST     5.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:10 PM EST     6.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:25 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:28 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.95.74.73.21.80.90.61.12.23.85.26.36.86.55.53.92.20.80.10.10.82.23.75

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:05 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:37 AM EST     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:24 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:20 AM EST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:07 PM EST     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:24 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:08 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:52 PM EST     0.89 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.8-1.4-1.5-1.3-1.1-0.40.51.110.80.70.2-0.7-1.6-1.9-1.8-1.6-1.1-0.10.70.90.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.