Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Liverpool, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:22PM Thursday March 23, 2017 10:17 PM EDT (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 3:27AMMoonset 1:37PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1031 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
This afternoon..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of rain overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north less than 10 knots. Rain in the evening...then rain likely with areas of drizzle overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Areas of fog during the day. Rain likely with areas of drizzle during the day...then rain likely Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain likely during the day...then a chance of rain Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201703232100;;954975 FZUS51 KBUF 231444 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1031 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ043-044-232100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Liverpool, NY
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location: 43.12, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 232347
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
747 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will slide off the east coast tonight. An
approaching frontal system will bring a wintry mix late tonight
and early Friday. The front will become nearly stationary over
the area and remain in place right through the weekend with
periods of rain.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
7 pm update...

clear skies and high pressure giving way to mid and high clouds
moving in from the northwest. Winter weather advisory continues
for late tonight and Friday morning for some light freezing
rain. Timing and amounts look good. Any sleet will also be light
and well under an inch. Adjustments to the hourly temps and
dewpoints. Still a dry airmass with dewpoints in the single
digits and temps falling through the 30s.

Previous discussion...

satellite shows clear skies as high pressure slides overhead
toward the mid atlantic coast. High clouds continue to spill
over the upper ridge out of the central gr lakes, and these will
gradually overspread the region later today and tonight.

Return southerly flow will start to develop across the western
cwa by late afternoon and evening. Models show this increase in
warm advection and the development/enhancement of a warm front
extending all the way back to the parent low coming out of the
front range of the rockies. As the storm slowly begins to eject
east, the front is made to crawl north or become nearly
stationary over southern ny state.

The big issue for the near term forecast will be the potential
for a light wintry mix to overspread the region later tonight
as the strengthening wsw low level flow helps push a surge of
moisture into the region with the developing warm front. Surface
temps will be below freezing through at least mid morning
Friday. As a result we have issued a winter weather advisory for
about a 6 hour period of a light accumulation of freezing rain
and/or sleet.

Temps tonight will tend to be a non-diurnal as strong waa
develops across the region. Lows will be before midnight before
temperatures either become steady or slowly rise.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday/
The short range guidance suggests a slug of mainly light precip
will slide through the area later tonight through mid/late
morning Friday as the core of the low level jet pushes eastward.

The chances for freezing precip will decrease as readings rise
above 32 in most areas by mid to late morning. What's left of
the diffuse warm front is made to eventually become strung out
roughly along i-90. The main cold front becomes snaked up north
of the st. Lawrence leaving much of the forecast area in the
milder air by afternoon. The clouds will mean we don't get too
toasty, but rising into the 40s and 50s will range from near
normal over the NE to several degrees above normal over the sw.

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/
A fairly large n-s temperature gradient will exist early in the
extended into the weekend as the surface boundary oscillates
across portions of the forecast area. This leads to a more or
less redundant mention of showery weather for several days right
into the middle of next week when a storm system is made to
finally bring a frontal system through the region, leading to a
drier second half of the week.

There is a small timing difference for this midweek front with
the ECMWF showing it passing about 12 hours sooner then the
gfs/gefs. This leads to a reduced confidence in the rainfall
forecast by day 6, so I made minimal changes to the forecast
during this time frame.

There is a higher confidence that drier air will prevail for the
end of the week along with temperatures that will cool to
slightly below seasonal norms as high pressure is tracked just
north of the region.

Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/
730 pm update...

vfr will continue most of tonight before conditions deteriorate
quickly with the approach of a warm front and a mix of sleet
and freezing rain between 11 and 13z start. This will last 2 to
4 hours before changing to rain as temperatures rise. CIGS and
vsbys fall to fuel alternate MVFR with the onset of
precipitation then mostly remain there all day. Some improvement
toVFR vsby and high MVFR CIGS at elm/avp around 20z.

This evening winds light and variable or calm. During the
overnight east to southeast winds at 4 to 8 kts but winds at 2k
ft increase to 30 to 35 kts so llws added. Friday morning winds
shift to the south at 10 kts then southwest in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night... Restrictions likely still with rain showers.

Saturday through Tuesday... Restrictions likely in rain. Some
freezing rain also possible Saturday night ksyr-krme, and Sunday
night for krme.

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory from 5 am to 11 am edt Friday for
paz038>040-043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 5 am to 11 am edt Friday for
nyz009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

Synopsis... Tac/jl ctp
near term... Tac/jl ctp
short term... Jl ctp
long term... Jl ctp
aviation... Tac


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 28 mi47 min ESE 4.1 G 6 30°F 1031.7 hPa10°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi77 min ESE 8 G 8.9 33°F 1031.8 hPa (-1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 75 mi47 min 33°F 1030.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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NW14
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W22
G27
W22
G32
NW25
NW22
G28
N21
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NW25
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G34
N23
G29
NW23
N18
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G25
NW14
G18
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S4
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W8
G11
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W12
G15
W8
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W8
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G12
W8
G11
SW7
G10
W24
W24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY5 mi23 minE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy27°F10°F49%1031.8 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY19 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair26°F12°F55%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8SW7W7W6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmW7W7W6W6Calm5SW10NW4SW3CalmCalmE6E4
1 day agoW16
G24
W12
G20
W17NW14NW17
G26
NW21
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NW19NW23
G31
NW13N19NW12NW16NW18
G23
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G26
NW13NW10
G22
W14
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W7W7SW7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW3SW4CalmSW4W7W8W9W14W14
G20
W8W9W14W10SW11SW6W22
G26
W12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.