Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:05PM Thursday April 25, 2019 8:09 PM EDT (00:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:37AMMoonset 9:57AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 742 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain late this evening. Rain after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Rain in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 9 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Saturday..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to less than 10 knots overnight. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Rain showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Rain showers likely during the day. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201904260315;;487410 FZUS51 KBUF 252342 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 742 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-260315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Rochester, NY
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location: 43.12, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 252352
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
752 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis
A storm system will spread a soaking rain across our region tonight
and tomorrow. Rain showers will remain across the region tomorrow
night and early Saturday, with cooler air following this system
transitioning the rain showers over to higher elevation snow showers
late Friday night and Saturday morning. After a brief break from the
precipitation Saturday afternoon, another system will bring
additional light rain and snow showers to our region Saturday night
and Sunday morning.

Near term through Friday night
Water vapor imagery early this evening displays two shortwaves,
one a northern branch open wave near wisconsin, while a second
southern stream closed wave is nearing southern illinois. These
two features will phase tonight, creating a deep negatively
tilted upper level trough and result in a strengthening surface
low. Satellite imagery also displays copious amounts of
moisture streaming northward ahead of this southern jet stream
closed low this afternoon, and this moisture will increase our
pwats to around 1.25 inches tonight and tomorrow.

Radar imagery displays an area of rain just about to push
northward across the pa ny state line and another area of
scattered light showers across lake ontario. This steadier rain
will gradually push northward into western new york this evening along
the nose of a 50 knot llj. Isentropic lift, beneath the right
entrance region of a 120 knot 250 hpa jet that will be zonally
stretched across southern ontario and southern quebec will bring
favorable lift to support widespread rain.

Steady rain will continue to spread north and east across the
cwa overnight, and continue through the day Friday as a surface
low tracks across wny and towards southern canada. Ahead of
this surface low ceiling heights will lower, with low clouds and
fog likely across the higher terrain. Some patches of fog are
also possible across the lower elevations as well.

Convergence along the LLJ may push rainfall rates up to a quarter of
an inch per hour for a few hours late overnight across far western
portions of wny... And then Friday across the finger lakes eastern
lake ontario region. Otherwise this will be a steady, soaking rain
event, that will have rainfall rates increase again Friday
morning early afternoon as a baroclinic boundary tightens and moves
across the region. This rain will raise creek and stream flows that
should remain within their banks.

Tomorrow as the deepening surface low tracks from wny to just north
of lake ontario and then towards western quebec, winds will quickly
veer from SE S to SW w. While it will remain relatively mild ahead
of the surface low, with temperatures in the lower 60s, strong cold
air advection behind the surface low will begin to lower these
temperatures through the day from west to east. By late afternoon
many areas to the west of the genesee valley will be down into the
mid 40s.

There may be a brief window for some fog to form off lake erie
around midday tomorrow as a 240 wind flow develops. This wind, and a
saturated atmosphere over the still ice covered NE end of lake erie
may bring fog in across the city of buffalo and surrounding suburbs.

As the wind continues to veer to westerly this fog concern will
diminish by late afternoon.

Rain will taper off to showers Friday as the leading edge of colder
air pushes across the region. Temperatures will continue to fall
through the night, with lows Friday night down into the low to mid
30s. Thermal profiles suggest that rain will mix with snow showers
across wny. With a lobe of moisture continuing the chances for
precipitation late Friday night, and 850 hpa temperatures dropping
towards -6c... The higher terrain above 1600 feet may receive a
slushy coating of snow by Saturday morning.

Overall precipitation for this event, from tonight through Friday
night will average around an inch across far western wny (closer to
the passing surface low), and up to an inch and a quarter across the
eastern lake ontario region where an upslope SE S flow should aid in
maximizing rainfall. For the genesee valley and finger lakes area,
precipitation totals will likely remain below an inch for most
areas.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
The storm system Saturday will move slowly from northern new
york into new england. Pressure gradient across the area
combined with cold air advection will keep west-northwest winds
gusty with most areas gusting in the 35-45 mph range. Lingering
moist cyclonic flow in wake of system will keep precipitation
going through at least the morning and perhaps through the
afternoon in favored upslope areas, with some wet snow across
higher elevations during the morning. It will be a rather chilly
day with high temperatures only in the lower to mid 40s, but it
feel much colder with the wind factored in. Any lingering
rain snow showers will end by early Saturday evening, as narrow
surface-based ridging and drier air briefly crests across our
region with some partial clearing taking place.

Saturday night, a potent and compact mid-level short wave will zip
through the great lakes region. This wave is modeled across the
board to feature very strong system relative isentropic ascent, and
an impressive trowal within a strengthening deformation zone. The
current forecast surface low track, just south of the new york
state border will allow for a developing northerly flow component
which will be key in lowering surface dewpoints. Given forecast
thermodynamics and timing, suspect that a move more toward
rain snow or even all snow at least for higher elevations might
be needed. If this is in indeed the case, the general model
liquid precipitation consensus of near a half inch or more is a
bit concerning. Probably will need some finer adjustment as we
move closer to the event with some mesoscale modeling. For now,
will hedge the higher elevations a bit higher on snowfall
amounts in the 2-3" range, but this might need to be nudged even
further. Stay tuned.

Long term Monday through Thursday
The long term period starts with model guidance fairly well
clustered together with ridging quickly shifting to the east of
the area on Monday and being replaced by high speed upper flow
from the wsw aloft. One wave will enter the picture by late
Monday and progress through the area, resulting in an upward
bump in precipitation chances with it. Beyond that time, model
guidance has substantial difficulty defining the timeliness of
additional fast-moving waves in the broad wsw flow aloft. As a
result, pops were generally built using a blended model concept
that favors a bit higher pops over the southern half of the area
than the northern half of the area during the time frame.

Regardless, the preponderance of guidance suggests that we will
generally remain on the cool side of the surface boundary these
systems will be tracking down, and as a result, temperatures
were generally favored near or below normal.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Taf sites will start off withVFR flight conditions at 00z, with
high clouds. However, rain and low moisture with MVFR clouds
near the ny pa line at 00z will spread northward this evening.

This will result in mainly MVFR flight conditions by 06z for
locations south of lake ontario, with a period of ifr conditions
likely across higher terrain including kjhw. Poor flight
conditions of ifr and MVFR will remain late tonight and through
tomorrow as a surface low tracks across the region.

Southwesterly winds will pick up when the surface low passes by
with lower cigs, and possibly some fog northeast of the lakes
Friday afternoon.

In advance of the surface low, a LLJ will bring some llws to
the western TAF sites. As the low passes across the region
tomorrow, winds will quickly veer from S SE to SW W through the
day.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday morning... MVFR ifr with rain ending as
scattered showers.

Saturday afternoon... A return toVFR.

Sunday... MVFR or ifr conditions possible with rain and snow.

Monday...VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday... MainlyVFR, with chances for rain
showers and associated MVFR.

Marine
A storm system will track across the eastern great lakes tonight and
tomorrow. Stronger winds and higher wave heights will come with
cold air advection behind the exiting storm system later Friday
and into the weekend.

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly behind the surface low, and
based on this we have issued small craft headlines for lake
erie, and the upper niagara river. These headlines will likely
need to be extended to lake ontario Friday night and Saturday,
in the cold air advection behind the system. Winds will begin
to diminish through the day Saturday... With waves likely to
remain at or above SCA thresholds into Saturday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday for
lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from noon to 11 pm edt Friday for
lez020.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas apffel
short term... Tma
long term... Fries
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi70 min ENE 8 G 9.9 43°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 12 mi58 min 43°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi58 min NE 6 G 8.9 52°F 1010.4 hPa39°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY9 mi16 minNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F37°F55%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7N6N3CalmCalmSE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW7SW4S5Calm3NE10NE12NE9NE12NE11NE9
1 day agoW12
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2 days agoE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmS3S4S3S4S6SW6S11SW11S12
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SW8SW13
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W12SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.