Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 5:11PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 5:12 PM EST (22:12 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 9:25AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1231 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and freezing rain early, then rain with a chance of freezing rain late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Snow in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow likely during the day, then lake effect snow Friday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of lake effect snow showers during the day, then a chance of flurries Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201901232200;;809655 FZUS51 KBUF 231735 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1231 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-232200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Rochester, NY
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location: 43.12, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 232129
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
429 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will track from the great lakes into
southern quebec tonight with mainly rain this evening changing
over to snow before ending late tonight into Thursday morning.

Cold air will build in behind this system, with lake effect snow
developing east and southeast of the lakes Thursday night
through Saturday.

Near term through Thursday
An elongated mid-level trough will move across the mid-west to texas
while surface low pressure tracks across lower michigan late this
afternoon. Strong warm-air advection will continue across
western and north-central ny as a 65kt LLJ tracks across the
northeast. Precipitation has changed over to rain in most areas
with the exception of the eastern lake ontario region where
surface temperatures are still just below freezing late this
afternoon. Southwest winds will continue to gust to around 30
mph late this afternoon and early evening. Downsloping has been
present across finger lakes region and southern shore of lake
ontario which has caused drying and a lull lighter
precipitation. East of lake ontario, temperatures are below
freezing and freezing rain will continue through the afternoon.

A winter weather advisory is in effect until 6pm 23z. Total ice
accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch is expected. Rainfall
amounts have ranged from a tenth of an inch across the lake
plains to seven tenths across the southern tier. Amounts between
a quarter to a half inch fell east of lake ontario.

A cold front will move into western lake erie this evening. Rain
will continue to move across western and north central ny. Southwest
winds will continue to produce a lull in rainfall amounts across the
finger lakes and southern shore of lake ontario due to downsloping.

The cold front will slowly move into western ny late tonight. Cold
air advection will drop temperatures and result in rain
transitioning to snow showers. Unlike most cases, where dry air
rushes in behind the cold front, a mid-level shortwave trough will
ride along the front into Thursday morning. This coupled with deep
layer moisture will result in widespread light snow to continue
through the morning hours across western ny. The cold front will
cross the north country around 12z Thursday so rain will have just
transitioned to snow. Light snow will end from west to east across
western ny by afternoon and persist into the afternoon across the
north country. Minor accumulations are expected from late
tonight through Thursday afternoon with 2-3 inches across the
higher terrain of the western southern tier and western finger
lakes with lesser amounts of 1-2 inches expected across the
buffalo and rochester metros. Less than an inch is likely along
the southwestern shore of lake ontario. Minor accumulations are
expected from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon of
2-3 inches expected east of lake ontario.

Temperatures will fall back to "winter-like" temperatures tonight
and Thursday. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20's
across the higher terrain to the low 30's tonight. The high
temperature will likely be met Thursday morning as temperatures fall
into the 20's through the day.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Significant lake snows possible Thursday night through
Saturday morning...

conditions favorable for lake effect snow set up ene of lake erie
Thursday night, and later Friday Friday night east of lake ontario.

The event can be broken up into two distinct periods - one before an
arctic boundary that will blast through the region on Friday, and
one following the boundary.

East of lake erie... A lake band should begin to organize Thursday
night. This one will be tricky, with a wsw flow focused on the
southtowns to near the buffalo metro region near the Friday morning
rush hour. Snow rates may reach 1-2" hr with this band, but models
have yet to fully lock into this idea. The atmospheric profile is
favorable though, with a cap above 7500' along with a saturated and
cold airmass together with a full lake fetch. This band may drop
several inches of snow until the above mentioned arctic boundary
forces the band inland with eventual reorganization over the higher
terrain to the east in the afternoon and evening. Later Friday
evening, the band or multiple bands will probably keep going east of
the lake, peaking at roughly 1" hr and then weaken rapidly on
Saturday as flow quickly backs to the south during the morning.

Current forecasts have storm totals reaching 8-16" under the
heaviest snows, with of course much less outside of lake bands.

East of lake ontario... There are some models that try to generate a
lake band SE of lake ontario (ex the canadian), but most models have
primarily a wsw flow without much of a response until Friday. With
borderline temperatures aloft together with backing winds with time
as the arctic boundary approaches, will hold off on any watches and
higher snow rates until Friday. Some lake enhancement or general
upslope flow should generate at least some snow accumulations across
the tug hill plateau during the morning, but a full fledged band may
in fact have a hard time getting going until the frontal passage.

After this point though, expect a band to blossom over and then move
to the south of the tug hill.

A band may then become quite intense Friday night along the southern
lake ontario shore from about wayne county to oswego county with
snow rates in excess of 2" hr as is often the case with increased
convergence at night. There is the possibility that the band may
hug monroe county as well. These types of bands however typically
remain just north of the rochester metro area and sometimes even
have a slight concave appearance on radar. Regardless, this will
probably be the most intense and interesting part of this particular
lake effect event. The band should begin to weaken and move to the
north on Saturday as winds back with time.

For other areas, the main event will likely be a short-lived burst
of snow with the arctic front on Friday. This may drop a quick inch
or two of snow in the afternoon, probably before the evening
commute. The boundary will disrupt or interact with the lake bands,
and may evolve into a squall line as it moves ese across the state.

But otherwise most areas outside of lake effect regions will only
see a chance of snow showers.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Throughout this period a classic coupled +pna -nao pattern will
remain firmly anchored in place... With a strong upper level ridge
entrenched off the west coast of north america... And a second upper
ridge extending from the central atlantic northward to greenland.

These two ridges will help to lock a huge closed low and its
associated deep pool of bitterly cold air in place over central and
eastern canada... With a large-scale cross-polar flow also helping to
continually recharge this cold air supply. For our region... All of
this will ensure that temperatures will average out decidedly below
normal right through this period and into the beginning of february.

Digging further into the day-to-day details... On Sunday a
potent shortwave trough will dig across the upper great
lakes... With its attendant surface reflection rippling across
quebec province and pushing its trailing cold front through our
region in the process. At this juncture it appears that this
boundary will be accompanied by enough moisture and lift to
bring a period of fairly numerous snow showers and minor snow
accumulations to the region... For which pops have been bumped up
to likely.

In the wake of this front... A fresh shot of bitterly cold air
(850 mb temps ranging from the lower negative teens across the
southern tier to negative mid twenties across the north country)
will pour across our region Sunday night. While this will guarantee
at least some some form of a lake response... This may turn out to be
fairly muted given the increasingly dry nature of the incoming
airmass... Building low level ridging... And a commensurate increase
in shear. Otherwise the incoming colder airmass will easily drive
temps back down into the single digits... Which have been knocked
back significantly from continuity.

On Monday the axis of the surface ridge will quickly push from
our region into new england... While the next mid level trough
and its attendant organizing surface low push into the western
great lakes. This will result in any lingering lake effect snow
showers giving way to increasing chances for some light snow across
far western new york into the afternoon... As warm air advection
begins to take shape aloft out ahead of the next surface wave.

Otherwise... It will be a cold day with afternoon highs mostly
running between 15 and 20.

After that... The medium range guidance packages remain in rather
good agreement on the aforementioned trough surface low becoming
increasingly better organized and tracking across our region between
Monday night and Tuesday. Given all this... Have bumped pops up a bit
further into the high likely range for this period. Depending upon
the exact track of this system (which currently ranges from directly
over to a little west of our region in the various guidance packages)...

it is possible that enough warm air could get drawn northward into
our region to result in a period of mixed precipitation or even
rain during Tuesday... Though for now have kept the forecast ptype all
snow out of consideration for the overall pattern and our forecast
continuity.

Following the passage of this second system... It still appears all
but certain that a pronounced surge of arctic air will then pour
across our region for not only the end of this period but right
through the end of next week. This will result in temperatures
returning to bitterly cold levels once again... Along with another
possible round of lake effect snow.

Aviation 22z Wednesday through Monday
A strong low-level jet will persist across western and north-central
ny this afternoon into the early evening hours. Surface winds have
increased to sustained 15-20kts however 45-50kt is present at 2k
feet and low-level wind shear will continue. Light rain will
continue across the region with drying across kroc due to
downsloping. MVFRVFR CIGS will continue with ifr at kjhw. Some
steady rain may push vsbys to ifr for a brief period this afternoon.

A cold front will cross the terminals late tonight and into Thursday
morning. Colder air will transition rain to snow from west to east.

Light snow will continue into Thursday before tapering off from west
to east. Ifr CIGS and vsbys expected tonight. Minor accumulations
are expected. Northwest winds expected Thursday.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...VFR to MVFR in scattered to numerous snow
showers, with ifr possible in more numerous snow showers east of the
lakes.

Sunday and Monday... A chance of snow showers. MVFR likely.

Marine
Low pressure will move across the central great lakes this evening.

Strong southwest winds will cause winds and waves to stay
elevated through tonight. A cold front will track across the
eastern great lakes tonight and Thursday. Small craft advisories
are in effect for most of the nearshore waters with the
exception of western lake ontario. Winds may briefly diminish
Thursday, but then will increase in advance of the next system
which is likely to require more small craft headlines through
the end of the week.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
nyz006>008.

Winter storm watch from Friday morning through late Friday
night for nyz007-008.

Winter storm watch from Friday morning through Saturday
morning for nyz006.

Winter storm watch from Friday evening through Saturday
morning for nyz004-005.

Winter storm watch from late Thursday night through Saturday
morning for nyz019-020-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Thursday for
loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for loz045.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel hsk
short term... Zaff
long term... Jjr
aviation... Apffel hsk
marine... Hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi132 min S 17 G 24 46°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 12 mi54 min 45°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi54 min SSE 16 G 20 38°F 1007.9 hPa33°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY9 mi2.3 hrsSSW 14 G 2310.00 miOvercast45°F37°F74%1007.6 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.