Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 3:57 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 905 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Rest of tonight - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers just before midnight. Patchy fog just before midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering north late in the morning, then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon veering east late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Sunday night - East wind 5 to 10 knots easing to 5 knots late in the evening, then backing northwest after midnight becoming northeast early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Monday - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 050130 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 830 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible tonight in the Wisconsin River Valley and near Lake Michigan.

- Quiet and dry weather expected for Sunday into early next week.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during the middle portions of next week.

UPDATE
Issued 831 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Storms have moved offshore into Lake Michigan, with northwesterly gusty winds after the cold frontal passage. Winds will diminish into late tonight, with some patchy fog possible in southwestern Wisconsin as winds diminish and surface moisture remains high. Generally only expect fog in low lying areas, especially the Wisconsin River Valley. In addition, slight onshore winds near Lake Michigan may lead to patchy fog. Fog is not expected to be widespread at this time, but we will continue to monitor current conditions.

MH

SHORT TERM
Issued 302 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Tonight through Sunday night:

The initial morning line of showers have diminished and pockets of clear are resulting in temps warming into the low to mid 70s across much of the area. Clouds are looking a bit more agitated on the latest visible/RGB satellite imagery ahead of the cold front which looks to strewn through far southwestern WI. Convective initiation is starting with a cell deepen over Jo Davies County just south of the WI/IL border. Expect this activity to develop over the next few hours as the cold front gradually slides east.

The environment ahead of the front has warmed and moisten with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s allowing SBCAPE to build to around a 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon along the WI/IL border with the 500 J/kg contour extending up into the upper Fox River Valley. Pair the instability with marginal deep layer shear values around 35- 40kt and looks to be enough for storms to develop along the cold front through the afternoon. Some stronger thunderstorms will be possible with this activity given the overachieving environment. Thinking any hail threat will be over the next couple of hours as storms begin to develop before the merging into a line. While the effective bulk shear is looking a bit less parallel at this time, the 0-3 km bulk shear still remains along a similar orientation as the cold front favoring a linear storm mode. However, with the inverted-V on model soundings and steep low-level lapse around +7.5 C/km, thing the threat for gusty to damaging winds will increase through the evening as the line matures. Again would not be surprised to see an embedded segment of the line to grow upscale and become severe especially along the WI/IL where an early MCV from northeastern MO lifts into northern IL. Again may see hail up to around an inch early on, but more of a damaging wind threat through the evening. While it is not out of the realm of possibility given some remnant outflows and potential lake breeze interaction increasing low-level (0-1km) shear, cannot rule out a brief spinup along the line, especially with any bowing/surges. But given more parallel shear, chances remain very low.

Nevertheless, the potential for strong storms along with a brief downpour will continue now through the evening mainly pushing east and over the lake between 01-03z. The main area of concern looks to still be a slice from just west of Monroe up through Green Lake and Fond du Lac County down through Burlington/Lake Geneva/Twin Lakes.
Still think chances will be limited along the lakefront given the persistent onshore flow, more stable environment, and later arrival.

Otherwise, the cold front pushes through this evening bringing drier airmass and quickly diminishing precip chances. Clouds may linger a bit longer as well possibly through daybreak Sunday. Then surface high pressure is progged to build across the area for Sunday bringing light and variable winds. Still looking to see temps warm into the 60s and given the light flow, a lake breeze may develop and push inland. Thus temps will be cooler by the lake for Sunday. High pressure influence will linger through Sunday night bringing a crisp conditions as mostly clear skies and light winds allow temps to drop. While temps look to only fall into the low 40s, but cannot rule out a few inland locations to fall into the upper 30s with a potential for some frost development.

Wagner

LONG TERM
Issued 302 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Monday through Saturday:

Low pressure occluding over the Northern Plains will be our next weather maker for southern WI Monday night through Thursday.
Increasing southeast winds can be expected Monday, along with increasing high clouds. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the warm front that will be slowly lifting east-northeast into southern WI Monday night. The trend for the arrival time of precip is slower/later, which is no surprise given the nature of upper lows.

With this warm front, elevated instability looks to be weak/modest (around 750 j/kg) as it lifts across southern WI Tue morning. Mid level forcing of vorticity advection and low level jet will be weakening during this time. Hail would be possible in any stronger storms. Tuesday afternoon looks like a drier, reload period, although there are plenty of timing differences between the models this far out. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible over south central and southeast WI, probably south of I-94, and this is due to another lobe of vorticity advection rotating through and the potential for the surface warm front to sneak north of the WI/IL border. The lake breeze may help (initiate convection) or hinder (shunt the warm front to the south) in southeast WI, so we will need to keep an eye on this.

Wednesday is looking fairly dry and warm at this time. The upper low will start to move into MN Wed night. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible over southern WI Wed nt into Thu. We will be stuck under a large upper trough through Saturday and potentially longer. Expect chances of showers and storms through this period.

Cronce

AVIATION
Issued 831 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Thunderstorms have moved offshore into Lake Michigan, with a few sprinkles still lingering near the lakeshore. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail across much of southern Wisconsin. A cloud deck around 2500 ft is slowly progressing eastward from southwestern Wisconsin through tonight, with a period of a few hours of potential MVFR conditions before improvement late tonight into early Sunday morning. After this cloud deck clears the region, expect rapidly clearing skies and VFR conditions once again. However, clearing skies in the southwest combined with weakening winds may lead to patchy fog. Meanwhile,locations on Lake Michigan may see a few areas of low stratus or patchy fog going into the early morning hours.

Northwesterly winds will continue to be gusty into late tonight before slowly diminishing. Winds remain light and northwesterly into Sunday morning.

MH

MARINE
Issued 302 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Some marine dense fog looks to linger through the afternoon along the western open waters and western nearshores given the warm, moist air over the cooler lake.

Otherwise a broad area of low pressure will continue to work its way eastward from WI and over the Lake tonight. This will drag a cold front across the lake overnight and shift winds from the east- southeast to the west-northwest. Will see scattered showers and thunderstorms with some gusty winds and small hail possible along the front. But it will be drier by Sunday morning as high pressure begins to build into the western Great Lakes region. Expect lighter and more variable winds for Sunday into Monday as the high pressure works its way across the region. Winds then begin to shift out of the east-southeast Monday afternoon and evening as another low pressure develops and deepens over the northern Plains. Winds will pivot between southeasterly and southwesterly through mid- week, prior to turning out of the north and northwest on Thursday and Friday as another low pressure moves east of the open waters.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast from early to mid week, with conditions drying out by the end of the week and beginning of next weekend.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Dense Fog Advisory
LMZ080-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567- LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870- LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 11 PM Saturday.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Milwaukee, WI,